Introduction
Day 4 of the 2025 York Ebor Festival is here, rounding off what has already been an unforgettable week on the Knavesmire. Yesterday was another banner day for the Blog as the data spoke loud and clear once again. We added 4 more advised winners at prices of £1.83, £7.60, £9.30 and £4.15, a superb return. And for those of you who played the Exotics in the lucky last, the reward was a £43.70 Exacta, perfectly identified through the numbers. Across the week, it’s been brilliant to see just how consistently the data has found the right angles, delivering both short-priced bankers and big-value winners.
While the Tote World Pool element of the Festival concluded yesterday, today’s card is far from a quiet finale. We’ll be providing race-by-race analysis on all 7 contests, and the highlight is one of the great handicaps of the season: the Ebor Handicap. Expect deep fields, competitive racing, and plenty more opportunities to put the EquiAnalytix data edge to work.
Day 4 Focus
The final day’s card is stacked with betting puzzles. We open with the Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (heritage handicap over 1m6f for three-year-old stayers), followed by the City of York Stakes (Group 2, 7f). Then comes the Juddmonte Stakes (Group 3, 1m1f), before the day’s feature, the Ebor Handicap (heritage handicap, 1m6f, £500k prize fund). The supporting races include a competitive Class 2 Sprint Handicap (6f), the Roses Stakes (Listed, 5f juveniles), and we close with the Julia Graves Roses Stakes Fillies’ Handicap (1m2f). It’s a deep and varied card, with tactical handicaps, juvenile speedsters, and top-class Group performers all on show.
Race 1: 13:50 York Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3)
A wide-open Group 3 contest over the extended 1m trip.
Race Analysis
We get underway here on this fourth and final day, and are faced with quite a challenging opening race to analyse. Regular readers will note that sitting top of the Total Performance Ratings (TPR) is our hero from Goodwood, GLADIUS. Today he makes the step up in grade for the Andrew Balding team, and with clearly progressive recent ratings of 116, 123 and 152, plus the tremendous form of his stable still, he has every right to be popular in the market. On that latter point, he has been backed in heavily at the time of writing, having been as big as 10/1 at the open, he is now trading around the 4/1 mark. Even at that price, I would not put anyone off following him in again, as there is a feeling in this race that that any of the field can win.
I think when you look at the ratings of BULLET TRAIN (who would admittedly be a surprise runner), SKUKUZA, KING OF CITIES and BOILING POINT, they all warrant massive respect, but equally they are just so difficult to split. It’s why in this opening race readers will have to take another leap of faith with the data, as it believes the outsider of the entire field is worth chancing. CHECKANDCHALLENGE has won three times in his career, the latter coming back in November 2023… so certainly a while between drinks for this horse. But what’s noticeable with him is that his ratings have significantly picked up in recent runs, so much so he recorded an outstanding figure of 195 last time, for getting going all too late at Pontefract. Now given the nature of that track, and the lack of volume on the fixture list, it can often throw up a big figure, but for this horse it followed ratings of 118 and 174 and so he certainly has the class here. The angle I think that’s most important is that this race has plenty of pace on paper, and this horse will no doubt be dropped out, waiting for a run late on. We’ve seen those tactics to mixed effect this week so far, but a return to the extra furlong could just well help this very lively outsider get back into the winner’s enclosure.
Race 2: 14:25 York Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)
The Melrose Handicap is up next, a gruelling contest over the 1m 6f trip, a race that will strain the stamina of many of these horses.
Race Analysis
I think a running theme of a few of these races today is that the data just doesn’t have that standout horse in mind, and I would say that this looks another example of that. CAPE BRETON heads the TPR figures below but he will need to step up on a recent rating of 120, and it seems his pedigree and trainer form is really boosting his overall profile on the day. The data believes he can certainly outrun big odds here, and so again I wouldn’t put anyone off throwing a saver his way. As we then begin to search lower down the TPR figures, you don’t need to look too far to see the clear chances of FANTASY WORLD, who has the assistance of PJ McDonald in the saddle for trainer Andrew Balding. This horse is seeking a hat-trick of victories, having won well at Ffos Last on his penultimate start, earning a solid rating of 125, before then going on to win at the Racing League, earning an even more impressive figure of 139. That piece of form alone brings the horse right into contention, and it’s therefore not a surprise to see the market support come for him at the time of writing. He has solid credentials, and so long as coping with the forecast faster ground, which his Breeding Data suggests should be fine, he can continue the winning thread.
15:00 York Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Group 1)
Our first Group 1 of the afternoon, the 2025 City of York Stakes over the intermediate 7f trip.
Race Analysis
A race full of plenty of depth, this year’s renewal looks to be a cracker on paper. It features the infamous QIRAT who will certainly not be priced as big as he was last time when causing a huge shock at Goodwood. All I can say on that is that the jockey that day did everything right, rode perfect sectionals and left the riders in behind asleep at the wheel! I think today you would like to see him be ridden prominently once again, but what’s certain is that he will not be given anywhere near as much rope as last time, and that just dampens my enthusiasm for his chances. If you like that form line, then you have to be a strong advocate for ROSALLION in reversing that form, doing best of those horses left with too much to do, and in the process earning a very strong rating of 178, incidentally a career best for this horse. The data’s issue with this horse is both the trip, and therefore his current price. Dropping back to 7f doesn’t look an obvious advantage for this horse, and while I am completely aware that he is a class act, supported by strong ratings, you would be much more confident playing this horse at short prices if it was over 1m.
So instead I will focus my attention towards the head of the table below which has served us so well this week. EXACTLY looks far too big a price given connections, and a penultimate rating of 174 which would bring the horse right into the frame. But most of this field are going to have to find something to fend off the improving NEVER SO BRAVE. Again from the Andrew Balding stable, this time ridden by Oisin Murphy, this son of No Nay Never has been a stark improver of late, rising from an official handicap mark of 105 when winning at the Royal Meeting to 115 having gone on to land a valuable prize back at Ascot 42 days ago. And what makes this horse so exciting is that his very high TPR figure is supported by some very impressive ratings. 122, 186 and 152 on his last three runs are exemplary figures, and that monstrous 186 was achieved over today’s 7f trip. The yard remain in tremendous form and this horse looks best suited by the conditions to continue his winning thread.
Race 4: 15:35 York Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)
The 2025 Ebor Handicap, one of the most competitive handicaps of the entire flat season. A race where you need pace, stamina, and of course be plenty ahead of the handicapper!
Race Analysis
A race where I could honestly write and write for hours given how deep these form lines and data goes, this year’s Ebor looks a fantastic renewal. I think for efficiency, I will give you what may feel like an obvious statement, but one that is clear from the data – this year’s Ebor looks sure to be going back to Ireland! Now of course UK racing is quite used to that theme now, with most major festivals featuring a certain dominance from Irish-trained horses. But you know you’re in trouble when even Willie Mullins is getting in on the flat act, and he has a fascinating runner here in HIPOP DE LOIRE. Of course, he has been the talking horse of this race for some time and many will argue that all the value is gone from the price, but when you see him sitting so highly amongst the TPR figures, alongside a very eye-catching “pipe opener” rating of 168 last time, it really starts to cement his place as the right favourite. Ridden by Colin Keane, this horse looks open to any amount of improvement and despite carrying a touch more weight than last year, you’d have to think he was an incredibly unlucky horse that day meeting trouble at every turn. Granted a cleaner run through here, I just cannot see this horse not going incredibly close.
But it wouldn’t be the Ebor without a coupe of interesting contenders and as close as I was to selecting MAJESTIC WARRIOR here, who I think could really impress on the day, I have landed with FLEETFOOT who from a data perspective, has achieved the very highest last-time-out rating. A rating of 186 is clearly something that demands obvious respect and this Jim Bolger trained son of Teofilo has been a definite improver this season. A win at the Curragh earned this horse a huge rating of 181, before then getting going all too late at Galway over 1m 4f. He then went on to Gowran Park’s extended 1m 4f trip and relished it, staying on strongly in handicap company to earn that outrageous figure of 186. Now he will need to step up again here, but he’s bred to do that and to really appreciate the extra distance. He has been nibbled at already in the market, and this could be a very dark horse in a fantastic renewal of the Ebor.
Race 5: 16:10 York Sky Bet Constantine Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
We drop back to the 6f trip here for another Heritage Handicap.
Race Analysis
A really open handicap here where I will leave it short given the profile of some of those horses heading the TPR figures below. The obvious starting place is with POCKLINGTON, who represents a team in tremendous form. It was Geoff Oldroyd’s horse in the lucky last yesterday that helped secured a £43.70 Exacta that I know so many of you backed! So clearly when you see the average rating of 118 across all his runners in the last month, you have to stand up and pay attention. This horse has looked a little unlucky late, meeting traffic here last time and narrowly being denied on his penultimate start. Improving ratings of 115, 116 and 134 suggest though that he’s getting better and better, and what’s often a powerful combination is when you see that occur despite an unchanged handicap mark. It can often mean that it’s a horse primed for a big race, and I certainly think he is going to take some stopping here.
But on the point of well-handicapped, I cannot move onto Race 6 without taking another leap of faith for a horse several of you will remember from Goodwood, COMMANCHE FALLS. He was a tentative selection in the Stewards Cup and despite officially finishing 7th, he actually finished 2nd of 14 in the group of horses that raced on the far side. Now I am not for one second saying he was unlucky, but it supports the rating I gave him of 155 for that effort, clearly better than a 7th place finish on paper. And it followed ratings of 146 and 174, and I revert back to my comment earlier that it can be a powerful combination when you see this compared to a stable handicap mark, even better when he’s actually been dropped 2lb from Goodwood. A mark of 98 today leaves this horse some 14lb below his last winning mark, and I would be amazed if he is now a 14lb worse horse than he was back in 2023 when winning over course and distance. He’s a huge outsider, but the Dods team have been back in the winner’s enclosure of late and that gives us plenty of confidence on the data.
Race 6: 16:45 York Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed Race)
Back to 5f for this Listed Race, the penultimate contest of the week!
Race Analysis
Our final two-year-old race of the week here in the Julia Graves Roses Stakes, and it’s a race where I feel it really does lack some depth. Heading the table below are the Godolphin duo, MILITARY CODE and SILENT APPLAUSE, where the latter is now ridden by Ryan Moore with James Doyle being stood down. It’s certainly not everyday you see Ryan Moore ride for the other major powerhouse in racing, certainly a sight to behold! But these two head the table largely based on their recent ratings of around the 140s, and of course the form of their trainer, Charlie Appleby. Both have clear chances here but I still think both look vulnerable based on what they’ve achieved so far. And my feeling is that despite SILENT APPLAUSE looking the better of the two on the figures, why didn’t William Buick ride him?
So instead I want to chance that local trained Kevin Ryan has another nice horse on his hands here in KINNALARGY, a horse that has clearly improved for each of his three career starts. Ratings of 41, 151 and 167 are certainly very impressive, and strike you that an opening mark of 85 underrates this horse, and gives confidence that this sharp jump in class will be no issue for him. By Havana Grey, his Breeding Data needs no introduction, with that sire’s progeny continuing to outperform, especially amongst two-year-old runners.
Race 7: 17:20 York Sky Bet Steve Birch Finale Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)
We close this fantastic week of racing with a final Heritage Handicap, this time over the extended 1m 2f trip.
Race Analysis
It will be rare that we have to succumb to this, but there are two horses here that the data just cannot split. They are both well-fancied in the market and so thus not offering complete value for selecting them both, but for Exotics betting purposes it could prove very valuable. The first is WESTRIDGE who is your current market leader for the Gosden team who have just been relentless this week. Ridden by Ryan Moore this time, this horse took a huge step forward when winning at Goodwood last time, and despite the horses in behind not going on to achieve very much, he did it with such ease that I wouldn’t be too concerned with that. A rating of 159 for that win followed an equally impressive rating of 152, and this son of Blue Point will take some stopping here. But the same can be said for other selection, GREEK ORDER for the Michael Bell team. This horse boasts an even more impressive last-time-out rating of 194, and most interesting of all is that it came when finishing one place ahead of yesterday’s hero Fifth Column. That form has been well and truly franked, and the return to this quicker surface should prove no problem given how well the horse ran at the Royal meeting in June. They are both very interesting contenders and the data looks to finish what has been a truly incredible week with a flourish!
📋 Selection Recap
Here are today’s bold selections across 7 races:
- Race 1 (York 13:50): Checkandchallenge (3)
- Race 2 (York 14:25): Fantasy World (7)
- Race 3 (York 15:00): Never So Brave (4)
- Race 4 (York 15:35): Hipop De Loire (2), Fleetfoot (21)
- Race 5 (York 16:10): Pocklington (9), Commanche Falls (3)
- Race 6 (York 16:45): Kinnalargy (3)
- Race 7 (York 17:20): Westridge (1), Greek Order (4)
These are the runners highlighted in today’s analysis as offering the strongest data case via EquiAnalytix Total Performance Ratings, breeding insights, and track biases. Use them to shape your Tote World Pool bets.
Conclusion
What a week it has been. From start to finish, the EquiAnalytix data has delivered, identifying winners at big odds, short-priced bankers, and even flagging that monster £43.70 Exacta in yesterday’s finale. With 9 winners across the first three days alone, the Festival has shown that when the numbers line up, they consistently cut through the noise of these deep and competitive fields.
Today’s card brings the curtain down on the 2025 Ebor Festival, but it also offers one last chance to finish on a high. The feature Ebor Handicap headlines an action-packed day where stamina, pace, and class collide – exactly the type of challenge where the data edge proves its worth.
Whether you’ve been with us from Day 1 or you’re joining for the first time today, thank you for following along. It’s been an incredible week showcasing just how powerful the EquiAnalytix approach can be. Let’s close this Festival the way we’ve started it – by finding winners, beating the market, and showing that data-driven insight is the sharpest edge in racing.
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