Introduction
Day 2 of the 2025 York Ebor Festival is upon us after a thrilling opening day on the Knavesmire. Yesterday’s feature, the Juddmonte International, produced a commanding performance from Ombudsman, who stamped himself as a serious star with a dominant victory in one of the season’s true championship contests.
It was almost the perfect day for EquiAnalytix followers too, with our data highlighting Eternal Sunshine at a huge price later on the card. She looked the likely winner inside the final furlong, only to be nailed on the line by Ryan Moore. A brilliant run, and proof of the value our data can uncover – though it could have been an even bigger payday!
As the Festival rolls on, remember the first three days are all Tote World Pool Days, delivering huge global pools, unrivalled liquidity, and the best opportunities to extract value across Win, Exacta, Trifecta, and exotic multi-leg bets.
And don’t forget – the Tote’s Money Back 2nd offer continues to run on every race across all four days. With margins so fine at York, that safety net can be the difference between disappointment and another chance to strike.
Day 2 Focus
Today’s action maintains the high standard, featuring top-class Group racing alongside fiercely competitive handicaps. The Yorkshire Oaks takes centre stage as the day’s Group 1 highlight for fillies and mares, while the Lowther Stakes showcases some of the most exciting juvenile speedsters. Add in a deep-field heritage handicap and a Listed contest brimming with progressive types, and we’re in for another day of drama and opportunity on the Knavesmire.
Race 1: 13:50 Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (IRE Incentive Race)
A Group 2 sprint for speedy juvenile fillies.
Race Analysis
This year’s Lowther Stakes is a great example of a race I love going through the data for. A field of progressive, unexposed two-year-olds, all boasting well above-average recent EquiAnalytix Speed Ratings, and equally impressive pedigrees. They are often a real conundrum and I do think this race leaves you with more questions than answers. Clearly yesterday, EquiAnalytix members who swear by our TPR figures were rewarded handsomely in one of the two-year-old races on the card, and I think that may happen once again here with ROYAL FIXATION. It’s an obvious selection, given on paper this horse is rated far superior to her rivals with a mark of 106, but I do stand by the fact there is a lot more depth to this race than perhaps the market currently reflects. She has made an exemplary start to her racing career, winning once and finishing second from just two stars, both times earning impressive figures of 132 and 133 respectively. The latter came in Group 2 company last time at Newmarket, where she was certainly not disgraced when chasing down the impressive Venetian Sun that day. The form of that race is already working out very well with two of them in behind finishing first and second at Glorious Goodwood on their next runs. Being by first-season-sire Palace Pier is no bad thing, as his two-year-progeny statistics continue to stack up against the best of them and she just looks solid all-round.
But we must talk about a few of the key dangers here as there are plenty of them. Owner Jaber Abdullah looks to hold a very strong hand with his two fillies, AMERICA QUEEN and TIMEFORSHOWCASING. The former gets the assistance of Ryan Moore and looks a fascinating contender after destroying her rivals on debut at Haydock 49 days ago. Admittedly she didn’t beat much that day, but is open to any amount of improvement. And here I equally like the profile of TIMEFORSHOWCASING who is chasing a hat-trick of victories, and boasts the highest last-time-out rating of 158. That’s a very good level, and despite all the horses she has beaten now rated in the 70s, she seems to keep finding from the front, a trait that can see her hit the frame here today.
But there is a horse lurking in here that the data believes has a far better chance than the market gives credit for. COME ON EIBHLIN represents the Dylan Cunha team, a stable that continue to perform so well with their stock of horses, and are gaining a serious reputation for finding well above-average two-year-olds. This filly ticks that box, with her sire, Space Blues, boasting the highest average progeny rating in the field, another first-season-sire who has impressed this year. This horse looks to have some character, give she did her best to throw the race away last time at Windsor, but clearly has some ability and it would be no surprise to the data if she was to take a big step forward here.
Race 2: 14:25 Harrys Half Million By Goffs (GBB Race)
A competitive contest on the Knavesmire.
Race Analysis
These open two-year-old contests are notoriously difficult to assess, given you have a huge field of two-year-olds rated from the mid-70s, all the way up to 106. Clearly from a data perspective it would be a shock to see many of these even be competitive off level-weights when you have horses rated far higher. Quite clearly the obvious starting point has to be TADEJ, representing Archie Watson and Hollie Doyle, a horse according to the BHA ratings is a standout being rated 106. Based on this horse’s York run two starts back, you’d have to think he has a huge chance, where a rating of 160 that day dwarves anything in this field. He ran well next time at Ascot, and landed a Group 3 in France on his most recent – all suggesting that this horse certainly has class. But a penalty for that effort, and therefore giving weight all-round to this field I think leaves him vulnerable, and the data is not convinced he wants the ground this quick. Now there has been much talk of over-watering at York this week, but still I think it’s all just cutting up on the top of the surface, and is still very quick ground. Therefore the data suggests at these prices we are better to look further down and take this horse on.
The difficult question here is who with. ANTHELIA will be popular for the Millman team, where her Super Sprint win last time earned a solid-enough rating of 123. She has been a star for the team this year, and will be certain to finish her race strongly today. But the data looks potentially interesting elsewhere, and there are two lively outsiders I want to chance, SONG OF THE CLYDE and RIKKI TIKI TAVI. The former represents the Clive Cox team, and from just three career starts, has recorded some impressive figures. It was his penultimate run I want to focus in on here, where a comfortable success at Chester was met with a standout figure of 154. That along brings this horse into the frame, and I believe he did very well next time to run close at Newbury under the winner’s penalty. By Sergei Prokofiev, this horse is bred to be quick, and I think this track could suit him very well. The other selection here will need more of a leap of faith from readers, as he has 21lbs to find with the market leader on official ratings. RIKKI TIKI TAVI has equally progressed nicely in his three starts, and it was impressive last time seeing him put it all together for a victory at Thirsk, in the process earning a solid figure of 136. That will of course need improving upon, but this race can often throw an upset and I want to be on the side of those improving horses here.
Race 3: 15:00 Clipper Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
A deep-field handicap where tactics and draw can be decisive.
Race Analysis
The Clipper handicap is always a great race, and this year’s renewal is certainly no different. Often you find in this big-field handicaps that it proves far more profitable to gravitate towards the top of the TPR rankings, and whilst there can often be some well-handicapped horses lurking further down, class can often prevail. A glance below will show you here that the data suggests you don’t really need to outside of the top two, two horses I personally cannot split. BULLET POINT will be firmly remembered by regular readers as he was agonosingly beaten at Ascot 26 days ago. That day he got his usual early lead, stacked the field, and just kicked for home a little too late if you take a look back at the sectionals. But still, it was a gallant effort, and took his last three EquiAnalytix Speed Ratings to 140, 152 and 120. The angle here is very clear, this is the class animal in the race, boasting both high and consistent ratings, and is now back at a track that is more supportive of a front-running ride than Ascot. Drawn in stall 3 he can get a good early position, and with the Haggas’ team averaging a field-leading average rating of 112 across all their runners this month, there’s a good chance they won’t catch him.
But as I mentioned, we cannot split the top two, and LEADMAN will be certain to chase the favourite down and make it difficult late on. A standout on two metrics, his last time out effort of 164 when narrowly beaten Newbury just 5 days ago, but also the Breeding data, being by Kingman out of a Dansili mare called Big Break who herself reached a mark of 106 on the level. His pedigree is a clear eye-catcher, and he has always threatened to be much better than what he has shown. For a 5yo gelding, he does remain largely unexposed and the pace in this race will suit him especially well, and providing he sees out the full mile trip, which his Breeding data suggests he should, he could run a huge race at very attractive odds.
Race 4: 15:35 Pertemps Network Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares)
A Group 1 showpiece featuring elite middle-distance fillies and mares.
Race Analysis
The feature Yorkshire Oaks is up next, which I have to say disappointingly has only attracted a field of four. I appreciate it features this season’s Oaks and Irish Oaks heroine, MINNIE HAUK, but it is still lacking depth. Many of you now will be questioning whether I’ve just forgotten to put this horse in bold font, but alas, I haven’t. This race has a feel of deja-vu about it, and if you rewind 24hrs we were having a similar conversation about Lambourn’s chances. He was very disappointing, as were a couple of the finishing efforts of Aidan’s horses. Now what we do here at EquiAnalytix is take the emotion out of racing and focus in on the data, and therefore I have been carefully tracking that 1m average runner rating for Aidan’s horses and it’s interestingly to me overnight to now see that drop below the 12m level, with only 43% of horses running to form. If like me you felt that Italy should’ve galloped on by in the Acomb Stakes, or that Delacroix had the race set up equally as well for him as it was for Ombudsman, then it may be no surprise to see this mini form dip from the stable. Now again, racing is an opinions sport through and through, and here the data’s opinion is that MINNIE HAUK might well be vulnerable at 1.36 at the time of writing. What is therefore disappointing is to see that there are only two other horses willing to take on the O’Brien pair, and as much as Ed Walker’s stock remain in good form, QILIN QUEEN looks to have too much to find here. And that therefore leaves us with ESTRANGE. I will admit this doesn’t look clearcut, as you will need to forgive her most recent rating of 88, as that race was ran at a snail’s pace, and she did very well in the circumstances to tough it out late on. From just five career starts, this horse has earned figures above 150 on three occasions, clearly showing enough ability there to be a force in a Group 1 such as this. If, and I must say it’s a very big if, there is any chink in MINNIE HAUK’s armour, then at the prices this is the horse that can take advantage.
Race 5: 16:10 British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) (GBBPlus Race)
A Listed contest over middle distances for fillies and mares.
Race Analysis
This Listed contest again looks really interesting on paper, and I think here we only really need to speak about three horses, CHARLOTTES WEB, RAINBOWS EDGE and AEOLIAN. Let me start with the latter as it may surprise a few of you to see that horse listed in that three. But it’s largely based on two factors, first the stable form of the Haggas team, where a 1m average of 112 again tops this field. This filly also only made her debut on the 11th July, finishing 2nd at Chester before going on to win at Newmarket 20 days ago. While ratings of 61 and 94 don’t tell you very much, the way this horse was backed in the market last time suggests she’s a filly with plenty of ability. It would not be a surprise to see her take a humongous step forward here and largely the market is reflecting that by having her so short. I guess what I am suggesting is the cover in this race might be a Royal Exacta!
As for RAINBOWS EDGE, she is the class act in the field with an official rating of 104. She was last seen here 27 days ago over 10f, when narrowly missing out in a similar Listed contest. The step up in trip looks an obvious step, and Night Of Thunder progeny continue to excel according to our data over middle-distance trips, of course that does also boost the chances of CHARLOTTES WEB who is by the same sire. But the selection boasts some impressive figures in the table below, where 168, 110 and 145 make her clearly the one to beat, only boosted by the fact the Gosden team remain in such good form. She looks fairly obvious here and barring any upset, it could be a good afternoon for the King’s horses.
Race 6: 16:45 Mews Hotel Ossett EBF Stallions Nursery Handicap
A nursery handicap for two-year-olds, a test of early speed and handicapping.
Race Analysis
It will be rare in such a big-field handicap you will see us just focus our attention on one horse, but clearly here the data only wants to know one horse, and that is STELLAR SUNRISE. I have to say that last night when beginning our study of the figures, I couldn’t believe the price of this colt by Space Blues. He has since been very well-backed into favouritism, but still looks attractive based on the data. This horse makes his handicap debut here off a mark of 88, having improved with each run this season. Ratings of 86, 97 and 154 is testatment to this horse’s progression, and last time out at Goodwood he was very impressive under jockey Oisin Murphy. A figure of 154 in isolation is the best in this field, and his stable have won two of the last four renewals of this very race, and remain in tremendous form. If that’s not enough, his Breeding Data is outstanding, by Space Blues who heads the table for his two-year-old runners, out of a dam called Herecomesthesun who herself reached a mark of 92 on the flat. All-round this horse looks very solid, and you would hope can be good enough to overcome a high draw in 19 to beat this field.
Race 7: 17:20 British EBF Fillies Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
A fiercely competitive handicap restricted to fillies and mares.
Race Analysis
And we look to close the day here at York with a winner in the lucky last, another devilishly competitive Heritgage Handicap. But forgive me for repeating myself here but again from a data-perspective it’s difficult to get away from DANCE IN THE STORM. Again representing the Balding and Murphy combination, this horse has a really solid, progressive profile, with a clear upward trajectory in her recent ratings: 119, 128 and 137. That’s very impressive, but as is her peidgree by Night Of Thunder out of the 91-rated Strictly Dancing. It’s a family the stable know so well, and this filly looks primed to get herself back into the winner’s enclosure. Of her oppsosition, and for those Exotics bets, I would look towards BONUS TIME and even BELLARCHI outrunning their odds. I have stamina doubts on the former, but her ratings are very impressive and it would be no surprise to still see her hit the frame.
🎲 Tote Placepot – York August 21 (First 6 Races)
- Leg 1 (13:50): Come On Eibhlin (3), Royal Fixation (7)
- Leg 2 (14:25): Rikki Tiki Tavi (15), Song Of The Clyde (16)
- Leg 3 (15:00): Bullet Point (2), Leadman (15)
- Leg 4 (15:35): Estrange (1)
- Leg 5 (16:10): Rainbows Edge (3)
- Leg 6 (16:45): Stellar Sunrise (2)
📋 Selection Recap
Here are today’s bold selections across 7 races:
- Race 1 (13:50): Come On Eibhlin (3), Royal Fixation (7)
- Race 2 (14:25): Rikki Tiki Tavi (15), Song Of The Clyde (16)
- Race 3 (15:00): Bullet Point (2), Leadman (15)
- Race 4 (15:35): Estrange (1)
- Race 5 (16:10): Rainbows Edge (3)
- Race 6 (16:45): Stellar Sunrise (2)
- Race 7 (17:20): Dance In The Storm (7)
These are the runners highlighted in today’s analysis as offering the strongest data case via EquiAnalytix speed ratings, breeding insights, and track biases. Use them to shape your Tote World Pool bets.
Conclusion
That wraps up Day 2 of the York Ebor Festival. We leaned on the data again, kicking off with a fascinating Lowther, taking calculated swings in the Harrys Half Million, siding with class and pace in the Clipper, and zeroing in on quality in the Yorkshire Oaks and Galtres. The nursery and the closing heritage handicap offered prime World Pool angles for Exactas, Trifectas and Swingers.
Yesterday’s headline act, Ombudsman, set the bar with a commanding Juddmonte International, while Eternal Sunshine reminded us how fine the margins can be, trading at big odds and looking home before being nailed on the line by Ryan Moore. Identifying her from the data was spot on; on another day, that’s a monster result.
We roll straight into Day 3, another Tote World Pool day, where deep liquidity and sharp pricing keep creating opportunity. Every race, every day, is covered live on the EquiAnalytix Dashboard; if today’s analysis sharpened your edge, keep it close for tomorrow’s card.
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