Introduction
Welcome to the opening day of the 2025 York Ebor Festival! Over the next four days we’ll be treated to some of the very best racing action anywhere in the world, with a mix of Group races, heritage handicaps, and the unique drama of the Knavesmire. The first three days are all designated Tote World Pool Days, ensuring massive betting pools, global liquidity, and opportunities to uncover real value across Win, Exacta, Trifecta and exotic multi-leg bets.
Here at EquiAnalytix, our data-driven approach helps us cut through the noise. With decades of form analysis, pace bias research and breeding data distilled into our proprietary ratings and models, we aim to highlight the runners the market may be overlooking. That means spotting the horses who can deliver not just winners, but big dividends when combined into exotic bets where the World Pool really comes into its own.
And remember – every day of the Festival comes with a safety net thanks to the Tote’s Money Back 2nd offer, running on all four days! If your horse finishes runner-up, you’ll get your stake back as a free bet. A huge benefit, especially at a meeting where the margins between glory and heartbreak are razor thin.
Day 1 Focus
The curtain-raiser delivers quality from the start, with the Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap opening proceedings, followed by the classy juveniles in the Tattersalls Acomb Stakes. Later in the afternoon, all eyes will be on the Juddmonte International Stakes, York’s flagship Group 1, where some of the world’s best middle-distance horses clash. Throw in the fiercely competitive Sky Bet Stayers Handicap and the lightning-fast fillies’ sprint, and Day 1 sets the tone for a blockbuster week ahead.
Race 1: 13:50 Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
A 5½ furlong heritage handicap featuring a large field of sprinters aiming for early festival glory.
Race Analysis
What better way to begin the Ebor Festival than with a devilishly difficult, large-field handicap. A cavalry charge is the best way to describe this opener, and an early look at the market at the time of writing will reveal it’s wide open. Often the best place to start with these deep fields is the Total Performance Rating, our forward-looking, AI-generated rating that takes in over 50 different data points to assess the likeliest winner. This sport as we know is never an exact science, but this variable has a strong track record of whittling down a competitive race into a handful of key contenders.
Therefore a glance below will reveal that atop of the table is the Jim Goldie trained, Hamilton legend, JORDAN ELECTRICS. At the ripe old age of 9, it would be some feat to see him land a contest such as this, but a combination of a sharp improvement in recent EquiAnalytix Speed Ratings, a drop in the handicap, an in-form stable, and a plum draw in the center make this a horse to be very interested in. Of course, this horse knows exactly where the winner’s enclosure is, and despite having done the bulk of his winning at Hamilton over the years, was not disgraced over C&D 12 months ago when 2nd here off a mark of 101. A 1lb drop since then will help, but this will need to step up on his two starts this season, where he disappointed on reappearance here at York, before finishing 9th at Goodwood. That last run was a step in the right direction however, where he earned a rating of 152, akin to the level he was achieving when on his winning streak last season. With the yard in top form, and his ideal draw in 11, I expect him to make a bold bid and be right there come the finish.
Admittedly that last comment can be said for many in this field, where clearly AZURE ANGEL has the ratings to be competitive, as does BERGERAC who I am certain will go very close here. The same can be said equally for SPRING IS SPRUNG who landed the big Sunday Series bonus a few days ago for the Midgley team, and will be attempting to complete a four-timer. But with the data in front of us, despite a huge price in the market, it’s difficult to ignore the Michael Dods trained TATTERSTALL. A leap of faith must be taken here as this horse hasn’t been seen since disappointing at Southwell 356 days ago. But as we’ve noted in previous blog posts, the Dods stable are having an excellent year, and will not shy away from readying one after a prolonged break. So then when you consider his last 3 ratings of 163, 178 and 185, it brings this horse right into the picture. EquiAnalytix Dashboard members will be able to utilise our new-look Track Bias tool, where clearly you will see that under conditions there is a strong positive advantage from those making the running/being prominent early. Both of the selections here tick that box and providing we don’t see a pace collapse, both can be competitive at good prices.
Race 2: 14:25 Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group 3) (IRE-Incentive Race)
A 7-furlong Group 3 contest for two-year-olds, showcasing some of the most exciting juveniles in training.
Race Analysis
The first two-year-old race of the week is the Acomb Stakes, a tough 7f contest where, as expected, there is little form in the book to go on. As I write, DISTANT STORM is your strong market leader, having contracted in price since declarations were made. This Charlie Appleby trained chestnut colt is a son of Night Of Thunder, out of a mare who reached a mark of 96 on the flat, Date With Destiny. A stellar pedigree and therefore no surprise to see him popular, and a debut rating of 114 for a win at Newmarket 40 days ago is eye-catching. The issue is the market appears to have gotten carried with the form of that race for now, and when you look at our Breeding Data, it suggests he will have a very tough time dealing with ITALY. In all honesty, from a data perspective, there is nothing separating them and therefore I would put nobody off those Exotics markets to cover them both. But this colt is by Wootton Basset whose offspring just continue to record the most impressive data. Averaging a rating of 89 across all his two-year-old runners, this is one of the very best sires in the game right now, and crossed with a mare who reached a mark of 100 on the level, the selection has the pedigree to win this race. His 2nd last time was behind another Godolphin horse who looks especially smart, and only they will know where that horse stands vs. DISTANT STORM. But the stage is set, and it will be a cracking renewal of the Acomb.
Race 3: 15:00 Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2)
A 12-furlong Group 2 for colts and geldings, an important trial for the season’s major staying prizes.
Race Analysis
We have our first major contest of the week up next, where despite not having that Group 1 label, it still features this year’s Epsom and Irish Derby hero, LAMBOURN. And as vanilla as this may be, there is nothing on the data here to expect anything other than him grinding out a fourth consecutive victory. I think what fascinates me the most with this horse is that he hasn’t really appealed to the racing public like previous Derby winners, where he is often criticised for winning “the ugly way”. But then when you look at the ratings he achieves, they’re outstanding. A rating of 211 for winning at the Curragh 52 days ago completely dwarves anything else in this field, and I cannot believe at the time of writing we are approaching Evens for this horse… that could look very big in hindsight!
Race 4: 15:35 Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1)
A 10½-furlong Group 1 and the highlight of the meeting, bringing together elite middle-distance horses.
Race Analysis
The 2025 Juddmonte International Stakes is up next, and this looks a cracker! A field of six, with three very strong UK representatives, and equally three strong representatives from France and Japan – frankly speaking, the way racing should be! But of course this has been teed up as the sequel to last month’s Coral-Eclipse, where it was DELACROIX who thundered up the Sandown hill to defeat OMBUDSMAN by a neck. Of course this time around, Godolphin look to have brought in a pacemaker in the form of BIRR CASTLE, who will be expected to make the running and set an even gallop, but do not be surprised if you see jockey Ryan Moore take matters into his own hands here, on a horse who clearly stays the trip very well. I think that will help his chances on the day, but clearly they all have something to find to match the figures of the selection. Yes, he concedes weight again to several of his key rivals, but the data clearly suggests that granted a more even pace, this horse can return to the levels we saw at Royal Ascot where he posted a monster rating of 184, one of the performances of the week. The team remain in red-hot form, and a chance is taken he can reverse the form in this mouth-watering renewal.
Race 5: 16:10 Sky Bet Stayers Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
A gruelling 1m6½f heritage handicap that tests stamina to the limit, attracting seasoned stayers and improvers alike.
Race Analysis
We swiftly move back into competitive handicap company here, with a stayers contest. As I write, ALPHONSE LE GRANDE has proven very popular in the early market at 7/2, having given the impression last time at Royal Ascot that there is still more to come from this horse. Of course there will need to be off a mark 93, and frankly his recent ratings of 98, 87 and 109 hardly stand out, and hence I am happy to take him on. ALMUHIT sits at the very bottom of the table and a rating of just 14 last time helps to explain why. But sometimes there are explanations and when you watch the race, they went a snail’s pace out front, which can often be the case at Ascot’s Shergar Cup meeting, and the horse was given no chance. This horse does not know when to stop running, and a return to more positive tactics with an eye-catching booking of Wayne Lordan suggests this horse can return to his previous high ratings.
But as we look through the rest of this field, a chance can be made for several atop the TPR figures, but most notable has to be WISE EAGLE for the Adam Nicol team. Ridden by star claimer, Warren Fentiman, this son of Free Eagle achieved an outstanding rating of 184 last time, which followed figures of 54 and 151, marking this horse as a serious improver on the flat. Off a mark of 103 here, he will certainly need to keep improving to win, but that recent figure in isolation simply cannot be ignored. Achieved at Musselburgh 123 days ago, this horse was seen running on strongly at the death, finishing a 1 1/2 lengths behind a horse called Kihavah, who subsequently went on to finish 2nd in the Summer Handicap Hurdle at Market Rasen! A solid effort and with the form franked, this dark horse can go very close here at a price.
Race 6: 16:45 IRE-Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Fillies’ Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
A 5-furlong heritage handicap exclusively for fillies, promising a fiercely run dash down the Knavesmire.
Race Analysis
Now I would argue that this race looks one of the most difficult to assess, where scanning the data has yielded a list of four that all have outstanding credentials: SARAHMAE, RUBYS PROFIT, FLUORESCENCE & ETERNAL SUNSHINE. Honestly, from a data perspective I would place each of these 4 in any combination you may have, as each boasts attractive odds and can enhance any winning Exacta, Trifecta or Swinger bet at the Tote. It’s ever so close between them, and if you look at each of their most recent runs the ratings read 165, 163, 163 and 162 – something you will rarely see again! But here we’ve taken the prudence of looking at it from both sides of the track. Historically it has paid to be drawn medium-to-low at York in sprint contests, and hence FLUORESCENCE, boosted by a last-time-out win and rating of 163 at Redcar, could have a perfect draw in stall 7. The difficulty is that there appears much more pace drawn high, with RUBYS PROFIT certain to go blazing off from the front, and may take some catching, but that can set up perfectly for a horse who is so often the bridesmaid, ETERNAL SUNSHINE. Another selection from the Jim Goldie stable, this horse will carry a featherweight of just 8st 2lb off a mark of 73, but that will be reduced further by jockey Shay Farmer’s 7lb claim. You rarely will see a horse carry this light a weight, and whilst appreciating this is still a handicap, I fully expect the horse to back up such an impressive last time out display, for a team that remain in top form, and can cause a bit of a surprise here if the gaps come in time.
Race 7: 17:20 Sky Bet Nursery Handicap
A 6-furlong nursery handicap for two-year-olds, often producing future stars from unexposed juveniles.
Race Analysis
We close the day with this deep-looking nursery contest, a race where you will be impressed to see so many outstanding last time out performances, coupled with some even better pedigrees. Atop of the table is ROGUE SUPREMACY who is the sole representative of the sire Sir Marks Basilica whose progeny have been incredible in recent weeks. As O’Brien mentioned last week, the sire himself only won as a two-year-old very late into the season, and it’s clear that he’s passed that onto several of his progeny thus far. Therefore the David O’Meara trained horse does demand respect, but I would say appears a little more exposed than many. BLUE ORBIT represents Starman who is a sire that regular readers will have heard me talk about plenty so far this season. This horse let blog-readers down at Goodwood as despite finding some trouble in running, never really looked like landing the odds.
And therefore when we look closer at the data, it does point towards a fascinating contender of Richard Fahey’s, who the data believes looks primed for a huge run on handicap debut. UTMOST RESPECT deserves exactly that having posted a recent rating of 155. That was achieved 39 days ago at Hamilton where the horse still showed signs of greenness, but kept on well to impress on just his third start. An opening handicap mark of 87 looks fair for that effort, and with clear progress to come, this son of Invincible Spirit could be very tough to beat. Clearly most eyes will be on the Sangster trained horse, DUBLIN BAY, who will look to land a hat-trick, and even four-timer given he’s declared to run in the nursery as well on Thursday. Having looked a real plot horse on handicap debut, he quickly showed a mark of 56 was very lenient, and having won twice has now risen to 73. That still looks a touch light, but when you consider his wins only generated speed ratings of 104 and 107, I am more than happy taking this horse on with the data in front of us.
🎲 Tote Placepot – York August 20 (First 6 Races)
- Leg 1 (13:50): Jordan Electrics (2), Tatterstall (5)
- Leg 2 (14:25): Italy (4)
- Leg 3 (15:00): Lambourn (1)
- Leg 4 (15:35): Ombudsman (3)
- Leg 5 (16:10): Wise Eagle (1)
- Leg 6 (16:45): Fluorescence (6), Eternal Sunshine (20)
📋 Selection Recap
Here are all of today’s bold selections across 7 races:
- Race 1 (13:50): Jordan Electrics (2), Tatterstall (5)
- Race 2 (14:25): Italy (4)
- Race 3 (15:00): Lambourn (1)
- Race 4 (15:35): Ombudsman (3)
- Race 5 (16:10): Wise Eagle (1)
- Race 6 (16:45): Fluorescence (6), Eternal Sunshine (20)
- Race 7 (17:20): Utmost Respect (5)
These selections represent the horses highlighted in our analysis as having the strongest data case based on EquiAnalytix speed ratings, pedigree insights, and track biases. Use them to shape your Tote World Pool bets today.
Conclusion
That brings us to the end of Day 1 at the York Ebor Festival. From the opening cavalry charge of the World Pool Sprint Handicap to the headline clash in the Juddmonte International, it’s been a thrilling start to four days of top-class racing on the Knavesmire. We hope our data-driven insights, bold selections, and Placepot strategy have helped you make sense of a competitive card and given you the confidence to play into the Tote World Pool with an edge.
Remember, this is just the beginning – with three more days of York to come, all featuring Tote World Pool action, there will be plenty more opportunities to uncover value across Win markets, Exactas, Trifectas, and multi-leg bets. Every race, every day, is covered live on the EquiAnalytix Dashboard – so if today’s analysis guided you to winners or profitable exotics, imagine the advantage of having these tools at your fingertips throughout the entire Festival and beyond.
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