Introduction
Welcome back to our Tote World Pool Guide and if you’re new here, you’re in for a treat. Today we cover a ten‑race festival on Saturday, July 26, 2025, split between Ascot & York. The meeting kicks off at 13:10 at Ascot with the Crocker Bulteel Maiden Stakes and closes at 17:15 with the Whispering Angel Handicap. Mid‑card highlights include two contests from York, plus the showpiece Group 1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, where a field of five goes to post at 16:10. Expect a blend of hot handicaps, pattern opportunities and raw juvenile pace to keep every punter on their toes.
Through our bespoke Speed Ratings and machine‑learning models, EquiAnalytix has turned raw form data, from over fifty years of UK & Irish racing, into consistently profitable angles. From tight seven‑furlong handicaps with 22 runners to Group 3 tests for fillies at Ascot, we identify value horses that the market often underestimates. And by focusing on the Tote World Pool meetings, where liquidity is at its deepest, you can look towards those Exotics markets to try and maximise returns.
Race 1: 13:10 Ascot British EBF Crocker Bulteel ‘Confined’ Maiden Stakes
This 6f contest at Ascot features 7 juveniles vying for honours in the Crocker Bulteel ‘Confined’ Maiden Stakes, promising a lively opener to the card.
Race Analysis
Whilst it might be a field of just 7 for this opening contest, only 3 of them have ever raced before, and hence provide a real head-scratcher for punters. A quick glance at the ratings table below will show that of those that have run before, NEW MONARCH is clearly the standard-setter with his debut rating of 164 for a 2nd place effort at Newbury 44 days ago. That was certainly promising, and despite the winner that day being comprehensively beaten next time out, he is still rated 90 and that makes this Andrew Balding trained son of Acclamation a difficult horse to take on.
But with such little form on offer, regular readers will be reminded of the importance of considering the EquiAnalytix Breeding Data in such contests, often unlocking clear value from unfancied horses. Having accessed breeding data spanning nearly 100 years, we use our bespoke EquiAnalytix Speed Ratings to assess the performances of the progeny from every sire, dam and damsire in our dataset. And what does this race show us? Well clearly it’s a negative for NEW MONARCH, who’s sire Acclamation only averages a rating of 71 across all his progeny, the lowest in this field – which drops further to 70 under the given conditions. Instead, we want to focus on Palace Pier who has really hit the ground running as a first-season-sire, averaging a brilliant rating of 80 across all of his runners, rising to 93 on the given going, and 104 over this distance. These are stellar figures, and suggest that HARBOR LOCK may be a very underrated second string from Godolphin here. When you also consider he is out of superstar mare Sand Vixen, who was a Listed winning 2yo and reached a peak mark of 107, the selection is not only bred to be quick, but also very smart. Maximum respect must also be given the supposed first string WORDS OF TRUTH here, but being by Lope De Vega you’d expect better to come when this horse moves up in trip, but I would certainly consider them both for Exotics purposes!
Race 2: 13:40 Ascot Sodexo Live! Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3)
The fillies go to post over 6f in this Group 3 at Ascot, with 11 fillies chasing early-season black‑type glory in the Princess Margaret Stakes.
Race Analysis
From a data perspective, this is about as open as they come. Rarely in my time analysing the data have I witnessed a field of this size where every single runner boasts a rating of at least 100 on their most recent outing. 100 is our benchmark level and clearly it shows you that this is a very strong renewal of the Princess Margaret Stakes.
Godolphin will be looking for a quick start to the day, and here they have the market leader at the time of writing, DANCE TO THE MUSIC. This filly ran very green on debut at Newmarket 70 days ago, but given connections there’s every chance she will take a huge step forward from that effort. She made a winning start that afternoon, winning by a length and recording an exciting figure of 132 which certainly makes her a solid favourite. But as is the way with these 2yo contests, we like to focus in on the breeding side and whilst Dubawi is superstar sire, his record with 2yos lags behind several others and that’s very evident in this field.
Hence at the current prices the data would prefer to take on the market leader with two livelier, more experienced fillies. The first is FITZELLA for the Hugo Palmer team, ridden by Oisin Murphy. This filly finished 3 lengths in behind Venetian Sun at Royal Ascot, a serious piece considering what that horse has gone onto achieve since. But it’s this filly’s pedigree that interests us, being by Too Darn Hot who continues to boast an average rating of 90 across all his progeny, and being out of Shamandar who, back in 2009, was a 104-rated 2yo herself. A clear standout pedigree and a chance is taken that experience can pay on the day. The same argument can be made for FLOWERHEAD who regular readers may remember was placed second at 100/1 for the EquiAnalytix blog at Royal Ascot! This daughter of first-season-sire Starman massively outran her odds, finishing 2nd behind the hugely exciting True Love. The selection actually finished first of the nine she was with on her side of the track, and with Starman boasting stellar progeny statistics still, a chance is taken this step up to 6f can unlock further improvement.
Race 3: 14:00 York Sky Bet Dash Handicap
Pardon the pun, but for Race 3 we “change course” and head to York where twenty‑two sprinters line up over 6f for the Sky Bet Dash Handicap – expect a fierce battle in this top-class sprint.
Race Analysis
I can honestly say that you will really be saluted if finding the winner in this wide-open sprint contest. 22 runners, where most have clear chances, is no easy feat for any punter. But aided by the data, we can begin to put lines through several of the runners and ultimately leave ourselves focussing towards the top of the table below. ELMONJED is going to prove popular in the market for the William Haggas team whose runners over the last month have averaged a rating of 101, a real standout achievement. This son of Blue Point also boasts clear improvement in his last 3 ratings, rising from 102 to 137 to most recently, 161. That demands respect here, but the current conditions just don’t look to be in his favour, given Blue Point progeny really thrive on rattling fast ground.
With that, I want to avert your attention to a couple of fascinating contenders at huge prices. ALEEZDANCER has standout credentials on his LTO rating of 184, but a bias at a track like Pontefract can often prove to be a red-herring, and premium members will clearly see from the bias data that it pays to be drawn elsewhere! With that, I want to focus in on both SERGEANT WILKO and KORKER. The former, trained by Kevin Ryan, is a clear pace-setter for this contest, with all his best performances having come from the front. Drawn in 22 will be no issue and I fully expect to see him bowling along. His last 3 ratings don’t jump off the page, but he sits atop of the Total Performance Ratings (TPR) for a good reason, and that’s when you consider his full past form, trainer form and track biases, he has outstanding credentials. Back on a more suitable surface, this horse can make his mark and may prove very difficult to peg back. In terms of run style, KORKER could not be any different. Often missing the break, this horse does his best work late on and can maintain his high standard of form, where his last 5 figures are all above 100, a feat achieved by no others in this field. During that period, he has run on ground far quicker than ideal, and returning to a more suitable surface off a mark now 1lb lower than for his last victory may just see him to best effect. Young Jack Nicholls who claims 7lbs on the day will need to be brave and find his gaps, but this horse’s ratings are classy and he looks dangerous in this field!
Race 4: 14:20 Ascot Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3)
Eleven fillies and mares step up to 1m at Ascot in the Group 3 Longines Valiant Stakes, a key mid‑season test for those aiming higher.
Race Analysis
A really high quality renewal of the Valiant Stakes, often featuring those horses that are stepping down from Group 1 company. That can be said for current market leader CHANTILLY LACE who has finished 5th this season in both the 1,000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes, each time just not having the class to challenge late on. On paper that is great form, and hence it’s not a huge surprise to see her head of the TPR figures, albeit she has posted regressive figures of 148, 139 and 125 on her 3 career starts. The stable are really getting back into form and I can see this daughter of Lope De Vega being very difficult to beat.
But from a data perspective, she is going to need to be very good to hold off the James Tate filly, ROYAL DRESS. Her last time out rating of 196 in isolation is outstanding and cannot be bettered by any of the day’s opposition. And despite it being earned at Pontefract in Listed company, she overcame clear front-runners bias by dropping out last and showing an electric turn of foot up the home straight. Providing underfoot conditions don’t get too fast, I think this filly may put up a very impressive performance here.
Race 5: 14:40 York Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2)
Seven classy milers contest the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes over 1m2f – this race looks a real cracker!
Race Analysis
I have to start here with a mention for CERTAIN LAD who heads the table below. This horse, trained by Jack Channon, is an absolute owner’s dream, given he performs so consistently at the highest level. I personally have such fond memories of watching this horse on course, and with his outstanding course form, and recent ratings of 180, 207 and 156, the market just has this wrong. Whether you decide to play him outright, or amongst the Exotics with the other selection that I will shortly come on to, he looks set to outrun huge odds.
We of course have to still focus in on ALMAQAM who whilst not having the same appeal at the prices, does command absolute respect with his LTO figure of 214. It’s very rare you see a rating that high, and when you do you have to follow. He looks classy, is on a steep upward curve and conditions should be fine.. I expect him to be a tough nut to crack, but so too is CERTAIN LAD!
Race 6: 15:00 Ascot Moet & Chandon International Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
Twenty‑two hopefuls go to post for this competitive 7f Heritage Handicap at Ascot, sponsored by Moët & Chandon.
Race Analysis
Despite a maximum field of 22, the data has managed here to give us two at big prices that I believe can both run huge races, having both last run at Royal Ascot. First up is YORKSHIRE who heads the TPR figures for the Ed Bethell team. Last seen running a huge race in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, finishing 6th that day, he still recorded a standout figure of 135. That, combined with his 154 and 171 prior to that gives this horse the very best form coming into the race. Therefore it was to my amazement to see the horse dropped 1lb in the handicap to a mark of 97. With a good draw here, and the team remaining in top form, he can certainly outrun his huge odds.
And for this looking for real value, why not throw that horse into your various Exotics bets with ZOUM ZOUM for the red-hot Ralph Beckett team! Now it must be acknowledged that we must put a line through the horse’s most recent outing, when finishing well behind in last month’s Wokingham Stakes. That race was ripped apart by a monster front-running performance, and so the selection probably still did well to finish 3rd of 7 in his group. With conditions more likely to suit today, plus the return to 7f, I believe this horse can get back to the 192-level he posted on his penultimate run at Salisbury. That form brings him right into this race and another 1lb off in the handicap can help!
Race 7: 15:35 Ascot Betfred Handicap
Over a mile at Ascot, 17 entrants line up in the Betfred Handicap – always a fiercely run event on Ascot’s home straight.
Race Analysis
And you will have to forgive me for getting straight to the point here, but arguably the most compelling data selection of the day runs here in BULLET POINT. Last seen running 2nd in the Royal Hunt Cup, when actually 1st of the 6 in his group, he posted a clear career best rating of 152 and that is the best form on offer here. The William Haggas team as noted earlier remain in top form, and this horse looks about as solid as they come, despite the 3lb rise in the weights. At the prices he looks an obvious play and there is still clear value in those odds.
Race 8: 16:10 Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1)
A five‑strong field takes to 1m4f in the season’s feature Group 1 at Ascot, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, a real highlight of the turf year.
Race Analysis
Well one thing’s for sure, if a race like this doesn’t excite as a racing fan, then racing isn’t for you! Despite a field of only 5, this looks mouthwatering on paper, with multiple Group 1 winners going head-to-head, and a quick glance at the figures below will show you just how high quality this field really is. It was brilliant to see French-raider CALANDAGAN get his Group 1 last time at Saint-Cloud. He was backed as if losing was no option, and put any doubters of his resolve to bed in the final stages. He sits at the very top of the market for this race as a result, but given the day’s opposition I am not convinced it will be so easy.
This race looks absolutely certain to come down to tactics. When you consider that both JAN BREUGHEL and REBELS ROMANCE both want a truly run 1m 4f, you can certainly see them slogging it out late on. That would of course require a generous early pace, and the O’Brien outsider CONTINUOUS is most likely to provide that, but it’s not guaranteed. And the worry therefore at the prices would be that this race does end up being a 2f sprint at the finish, a scenario that I don’t believe would suit many of the key protagonists. But it might just suit KALPANA who despite only being in receipt of 3lbs from her opposition, does boast the highest LTO rating of 212. This comprehensive Champions Day winner of last season will need to step up on her two outings this season, but don’t underestimate just how good a run it was last time behind star 3yo Whirl. Having to give away 12lbs is a challenge for any horse, and the selection ran on strongly all the way to the line, suggesting a return to this 1m 4f trip could be optimal. If the key runners don’t turn this into a slog, this high class filly is certainly capable of causing a minor surprise!
Race 9: 16:45 Ascot Me2 Club Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
Eight runners contest this 1m4f GBB+ handicap at Ascot, sponsored by Me2 Club, but does it all land on one?
Race Analysis
The horse in question here is TENABILITY, again representing the William Haggas team. This 3yo gelded son of Frankel will be making his handicap debut off a mark of 81 which, given an 8-length rout of the field at Windsor on his last run, looks about right. His 3 career figures of 106, 117 and 108 are solid, without being a standout. But moved into handicaps, and upped to 1m 4f might just trigger a big step forward in this horse’s form, for a team that can do no wrong right now. A quick glance at his pedigree suggests he has all the makings of a 3yo improver, being by Frankel whose progeny statistics year on year continue to top the sire ranks, and being out of a Pivotal mare who herself reached a mark of 92 on the flat, albeit over sprint distances! The Frankel bloodline has evidently given this horse stamina, but also bundles of potential and it’s hard to see him being beaten here. Even more so when you consider that his nearest rival VENZUELAN, who does boast better recent form figures, has huge question marks over his resolve.
Race 10: 17:15 Ascot Whispering Angel Handicap
Fourteen sprinters battle over 5f in the closing Whispering Angel Handicap at Ascot, the final race on a marathon day of top-quality action.
Race Analysis
14 sprinters go to post here and in true Ascot fashion, they have not made it easy to find a winner in the lucky last. I have gone through this data over and over again, and the closer you look, the more you can pick holes in the chances of every runner in the field. ARAMRAM heads the TPR figures, and ratings of 148, 135 and 126 on his last 3 runs help to explain why, but these are clearly in a downward trajectory and I am personally not convinced that these are the conditions he wants to be seen at his best, despite the services of Ryan Moore in the saddle. TROPICAL STORM has a chance on the stable’s top form, but his recent ratings don’t amount to very much, and the same can be said for COVER UP last time who despite stellar prior performances, only mustered a figure of 95 when well beaten at Ascot. The latter is getting towards a handicap mark where he can be competitive once again, but the risk vs. reward just isn’t there in the market currently.
As you then start glancing downwards, the same sort of themes continue to reappear. ROMAN DRAGON has two recent duck-eggs to overcome, and AZURE ANGEL’s run of top form came to an end last time at York and this horse now looks right up to the ceiling of his ability handicap-wise. And that certainly leaves the data with a conundrum, and it’s answer is two very speculative outsiders that on the figures look far too big in the market!
The first is the Brian Meehan trained TOCA MADERA, drawn in stall 10 and with the assistance in the saddle from superstar Billy Loughnane. This horse hasn’t visited the winner’s enclosure since 15th August 2024, but since has been highly competitive in big-field handicaps, including over course and distance. His run two weeks ago looked too bad to be true, and with a field here lacking early pace, he may be able to dominate out front and bounce back to form. The same will certainly need to happen for huge outsider KING OF STARS. On paper, this horse has very little chance, but the data does suggest otherwise. Having not been seen on the track for 211 days, this Mick Appleby trained sprinter has slipped to a very interesting mark of 87, some 9lbs lower than for his most recent success on turf. He has of course had a very patchy career through injury, but despite that has proven a model of consistency. When he reappeared after a mammoth break last season, he ran a great race out front before tiring late on. That came off a mark 7lbs higher than he faces today, and with there not appearing to be bundles of pace on, don’t be surprised to see this horse finish in the frame at a massive price.
🎲 Tote Placepot – Ascot (First 6 Ascot Races)
- Leg 1 (13:10): Harbor Lock (2)
- Leg 2 (13:40): Fitzella (7), Flowerhead (8)
- Leg 3 (14:20): Royal Dress (4)
- Leg 4 (15:00): Yorkshire (9), Zoum Zoum (1)
- Leg 5 (15:35): Bullet Point (1)
- Leg 6 (16:10): Kalpana (5)
📋 Selection Recap
Here are all of today’s bold selections across all 10 races:
- Race 1 – Harbor Lock
- Race 2 – Fitzella, Flowerhead
- Race 3 – Korker, Sergeant Wilko
- Race 4 – Royal Dress
- Race 5 – Certain Lad, Almaqam
- Race 6 – Yorkshire, Zoum Zoum
- Race 7 – Bullet Point
- Race 8 – Kalpana
- Race 9 – Tenability
- Race 10 – Toca Madera, King Of Stars
These selections represent horses highlighted in the analysis as having strong potential based on EquiAnalytix data models and pedigree analysis.
Conclusion
And just like that, World Pool action both Ascot & York comes to an end. It has been a spectacular ten‑race day, and we hope our data‑driven insights, standout selections, and Placepot strategy helped you navigate every contest with confidence. Whether you backed our bold Win selections, explored those Exotics markets, or played the Placepot, you’ve seen how the EquiAnalytix approach can sharpen your edge in the Tote World Pool.
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