Introduction
Day 3 of the 2025 York Ebor Festival is upon us after another excellent day on the Knavesmire. Yesterday we saw the numbers really talk: advised winners from the Blog returned at £3.95, £11.35, £2.88 and £4.40 — a superb haul. Even more telling, 6 of the 7 winners on the card were the top-rated on our forward-looking Total Performance Rating (TPR). It was also great to hear from so many of you who followed our free tip, Stellar Sunrise, straight into the winner’s enclosure. Racing isn’t an exact science and quieter days do happen, but yesterday showed how powerful the data can be over time.
As the Festival rolls on, remember the first three days are all Tote World Pool Days, delivering huge global pools, unrivalled liquidity, and the best opportunities to extract value across Win, Exacta, Trifecta, and multi-leg bets.
And don’t forget — the Tote’s Money Back 2nd offer continues to run on every race across all four days. With margins so fine at York, that safety net can be the difference between disappointment and another chance to strike.
Day 3 Focus
Today’s card is a cracker. We kick off with the Sky Bet Handicap (Class 2 heritage handicap over 1m4f), then shift into staying class with the Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup (G2, 2m½f). The juveniles take centre stage in the Gimcrack Stakes (G2, 6f colts & geldings), before the five-furlong burn-up of the Nunthorpe Stakes (G1). Later, the Assured Data Protection EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2, 1m2½f) sets up nicely for pace and positioning, the Convivial Maiden (Class 2, 7f) gathers some beautifully-bred newcomers, and we close with the Sky Bet Mile Handicap (Class 2, 1m). Plenty of depth, plenty of angles, and plenty of World Pool liquidity to play into.
World Pool Races at Newmarket!
The World Pool action doesn’t stop there, as today we also kick things off at Newmarket with Races 1 and 2, both part of the Tote World Pool line-up. That means from the very first flag, you’ve got access to deeper, global pools and the edge of EquiAnalytix Data to guide your bets. With 9 World Pool contests in total across the day, this is as good as it gets for high-quality racing. Don’t miss the early starts at 12:50 and 13:20 – make sure you’re in the game from the off!
Race 1: 12:50 Newmarket World Pool Bet With The Tote Handicap
A competitive 0-85 handicap over the 6f trip.
Race Analysis
We get started early at Newmarket this afternoon with an open-looking 6f contest, a race where after glancing down at the data, you can be forgiven for struggling to pick a standout! PROFIT REFUSED is second on the TPR figures for a set of owners who will be bouyant after success last night in the Racing League, and their charge here has a solid profile heading into this. Ratings of 182 and 128 on previous starts are clearly impressive, but the horse disappointed last time when recording a 51 and I do think at the prices makes him vulnerable. The remainder have a very mixed profile and ratings seem to be all over the place, and so we will stick with the data that suggests the TPR top-rated DORNEY LAKE can reward early market support in this handicap. His recent ratings of 130, 90 and 137 are the best on offer in this field, as is the stable form metrics of the Michael Bell team, and with that sustained early market support, it appears this horse has been found the ideal opportunity to regain the winning thread.
Race 2: 13:20 Newmarket Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Hopeful Stakes (Listed Race)
A Listed race again over 6f, featuring a strong field of speedsters.
Race Analysis
This is a really interesting Hopeful Stakes, and has managed to attract a really compelling field, plenty for the data to dive into! Heading the TPR below is TOYOTOMI, who given he has spent much of his career abroad, we are not able to fully capture that within the figures. But on a standalone basis, his recent run at Chester where he recorded a figure of 135 does demand respect, albeit there is a suspicion that the form shown there mightn’t be good enough to see him competitive here. LETHAL LEVI is your top-rated horses according to the BHA, and no real surprise to see the level of market confidence behind this horse. His three last runs have all been about as impressive as it comes, recording figures of 174, 170 and 140. That is a level of form unmatched by any in this field, despite some closely matched figures from DUBAI TREASURE, and the data concurs that the market looks to have got this one right at the time of writing. He of course hasn’t visited the winner’s enclosure since September last year, but has kept very good company since then, and the data suggests this is a definite drop in grade for this sprinter. With the team in good form, a chance is taken he can equally reward the market support and get the data off to a fine start prior to York!
Race 3: 13:50 York Sky Bet Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)
Class 2 heritage handicap over 1m4f — stamina and settling will decide it.
Race Analysis
Racing gets underway for Day 3 here at York and it’s not entirely surprising to see the Balding and Murphy combination yet again head the market – this time with MOUNT ATLAS. The duo finished yesterday in tremendous form, and arguably with a clearer passage, would have won the last two races, so it’s easy to see why this horse is proving popular. But make no mistake, his form warrants it, and you will clearly see below that he has the highest Total Performance Rating of any horse in the race… and given how this week has gone so far, that’s a major tick against his name. He followed up his Royal Ascot 5th with a return to that track 41 days ago, landing a nice contest comfortably enough, in the process earning a solid EquiAnalytix Speed Rating of 134. That alone brings him right into this race, but he will need to improve further to defy a 5lb rise in the handicap. The data here clearly thinks a lot of this horse, but he will have to take a big step forward to reverse the form with the selection, NAQEEB. Sitting second among the TPR figures, most likely due to his poor eighth-place finish at this track on his penultimate start, this horse actually beat MOUNT ATLAS at Royal Ascot by 3 lengths. And given the latter’s success since, the selection is 3lb better off here. That’s going to be a big factor here in my opinion, and when you then consider that the selection posted a field-leading rating of 146 last time at Goodwood when chasing home a smart horse from the Gosden stable, it cements his place as one to be firmly interested in. Julie Camacho’s string remains in great form, as is clear to see from her one-month average of 102 across all her runners, with 54% running to form. This son of Nathaniel looks solid on the data; providing he can reproduce it at York, given he has, in the past, tended to thrown in the odd strange performance here. He looks the one to side with at generous current odds.
Race 4: 14:25 York Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2)
Group 2 staying prize over 2m½f — stamina is the key here.
Race Analysis
The Lonsdale Cup is up next where, as has been the case with several of our top-quality races this week, there is a lack of depth to the field. Certainly no disrespect intended to a field of clearly very capable horses, but they will surely all have to hope that TRAWLERMAN runs terribly to be competitive. The selection here has very much become the star of the stayers’ division after the retirement of Kyprios, and his success at Royal Ascot last time was a career-best effort. That day he generated a huge figure of 192, far higher than any of today’s opposition and provided he gets a good pace to aim at, it should be a case of seeing him land the hat-trick.
Race 5: 15:00 York Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (In Honour Of Tom Lacy) (Colts & Geldings)
Group 2 six-furlong dash for colts and geldings — pure speed and early position matter.
Race Analysis
The 2025 Gimcrack Stakes looks a cracker on paper, and I have to start by acknowledging the market move for EGOLI, the representative from the Ralph Beckett stable. This horse has proven very popular after the success of Song Of The Clyde in yesterday’s 2yo sales race, given EGOLI beat that horse comprehensively at Newbury on his penultimate start. That day he earned a solid rating of 131 and everything about this horse suggests he’s far better than his current official mark of 93. But he will certainly have to be, as heading the table is a horse has very much played the bridesmaid role this season, DO OR DO NOT. This very talented son of Space Blues has gallantly finished behind some very good horses in his last few runs, at Royal Ascot chasing down Gstaad, and of course most recently when behind Zavateri. These are very high quality two-year-olds, and I would be amazed to see something of that quality come to light in this contest, which on official ratings doesn’t look the greatest of renewals. For those placed effort, the selection has generated exemplary ratings of 120, 151 and 130, and this drop back down to a straight 6f looks certain to see this horse generate another top performance. As regular readers will recall, the EquiAnalytix Breeding Data can be a powerful tool in two-year-old races, and it’s clear to see here that the selection’s sire, Space Blues, boasts the highest average rating from his two-year-old runners compared to any other sire in the field. There are plenty of positives for this horse, and given that market move for EGOLI, it’s only generated more value for punters.
I of course cannot move on without mentioning one more in this field… LIFEPLAN. I remain hesitant when posting a second selection here as the above horse just looks solid. But I can tell you that it is very, very rare to see any horse post a debut rating as high as what this horse achieved, let alone as a two-year-old. 28 days ago, this horse made a striking debut at Thirsk, where he raced prominent throughout and travelled into the dip like a very smart horse, before kicking away late on. Now I fully appreciate that the form in behind that day was not especially strong, but a rating of 173 for that performance just cannot be ignored. Young jockey Zak Wheatley retains the partnership here, and this horse is open to any amount of improvement, and whether he is capable of landing this or not, he can prove a smart inclusion for those Exotics selections nonetheless.
Race 6: 15:35 York Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1)
Group 1 five-furlong burn-up — blistering speed and the break from the gates are everything.
Race Analysis
I have to say, I have been very excited to watch this year’s Nunthorpe, as despite critics suggesting it lacks the real superstar of recent years, it means the race is completely wide-open! There are just so many angles to this race. LADY IMAN is going to prove popular, and the data supports that case with her last time out rating of 161 when winning at Goodwood. York’s unique 5f speed contest is going to suit her perfectly, and with the two-year-old weight allowances she receives, she will be a danger to all if good enough. We also have to mention the King George Qatar Stakes from Goodwood, as that form brings in several of these. On the day it was JM JUNGLE who gained a narrow victory, and that earned him a standout rating of 173, a very serious speed figure, but the worry here would be the penalty he has to carry as a result and 10st 1lb is not easy for any horse, especially when giving away 27lb to LADY IMAN! SHE’S QUALITY was arguably a little unlucky that day having probably made her move from the wrong part of the track, she was only narrowly denied and I would fully expect her to run well again here.
But the angle for the data here is very clear, and that’s the horse right on top of the TPR figures, SAYIDAH DARIYAN. Representing the Richard Hughes team, who have unleashed some very good horses thus far this week, this 3yo filly looks to land him a very big prize. This filly does remain very lightly raced, and is a clear example of a horse improving rapidly for each run. Having started off a mark of 92 back in April, she has since rose to today’s official rating of 110. But it was her most recent effort that cements her as the selection this afternoon, where over 6f here at York, she destroyed her rivals and in the process earned a standout figure of 169. That was over the 6f trip, but the manner in which she traveled that day suggested that a drop back to a strong-paced 5f would cause no problem. She is a very high-class filly, and with the assistance of Ryan Moore, she can land the spoils here in a wide-open renewal of the Nunthorpe.
Race 7: 16:10 York Assured Data Protection EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)
Class 2 heritage handicap for fillies over 1m2½f — pace and positioning could prove decisive.
Race Analysis
We move back up in trip here for what has turned out to be a real head-scratcher for myself and the data. Clearly, the market is banking on ZGHARTA returning to form for the step back up in trip, having been a definite eye-catcher at Goodwood last time. The issue is that three starts ago, the filly got her 10f trip but only posted a moderate rating of 107. Now of course, the stable and trainer-jockey combination remain in red-hot form, but it’s some leap of faith to be backing her at these prices and the data will happily take her on.
I trawled through all of this data, likely for far too long overnight, and despite all my work, it has led me to again follow the obvious from the data… and that’s POWER OF DESTINY. Now it’s obvious because she tops the TPR figures, but the question many of you will have is why, especially when you see form figures of 3, 0, 5, 9, 0. That hardly fills you with confidence. But the TPR is calculated using advanced machine learning, and clearly when you look at her aggregate data, her last three ratings are all above 100, her trainer remains in-form, she has superb breeding, and has a good draw in stall 9 – it all starts to piece together a little bit more. And the most interesting insight I can give you here is that this horse finished 3rd at Lingfield on the all-weather back on 18th January, finishing a head behind none other than Charlotte’s Web, yesterday’s Listed winner. And most interesting of all, that day was off level weights. Since then, POWER OF DESTINY has done nothing to advertise the form, well-beaten in her previous three races and therefore has declined to a mark of 87. But that remains just 1lb higher than her most recent success at Kempton last year, and this four-year-old has far too good a pedigree to just write off, and at these prices, supported by the TPR, a chance is taken that the day’s conditions can bring out a return to form under Rossa Ryan.
I do however want to turn your attention to one more horse in this race, who could add some serious value if we were to land the Swinger or Exacta with both selections. CAPE FLORAholds a unique accolade of being a track-record holder at Leicester. But all jokes aside, what this filly did last time out was very impressive. It’s very rare you see a Gosden horse running off a handicap mark of 68, but the team must’ve felt that she was far better than that, having travelled her to Leicester where she subsequently smashed her rivals, winning by 6 lengths eased-down. An 11lb rise in the handicap will demand more, but this filly has a stunning pedigree according to our data, being by Kingman out of a New Approach mare. She is bred to continue improving and getting in off a very light weight here will be no bad thing, as this big, rangey filly can improve upon an already impressive last-time-out figure of 139.
Race 8: 16:45 York British Stallion Studs EBF Convivial Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
Class 2 seven-furlong maiden for unexposed juveniles — tactics and track position are key.
Race Analysis
The penultimate contest sees us return to two-year-old company and as is often the case, the table below is headed by an Aidan O’Brien-trained horse, this time FRESCOBALDI. This son of No Nay Never is seeking a first victory, having been narrowly denied last time at Fairyhouse. He earned a solid enough figure of 124 that day, but what’s been most disappointing subsequently is to see the form of that race continually be let down. That, coupled with No Nay Never’s sire record amongst his two-year-olds, I am very happy to search lower down the TPR list. As I write, NAVAL LIGHT is proving incredibly popular in the market, backed into clear favourite. Karl Burke continues to produce so much quality amongst his two-year-olds, and despite remaining a maiden, this horse has been keeping very good company of late. An official rating of 87, and last time out effort of 145 on our figures warrant the market support and will see him go close. My issue is his pedigree here, where despite being by top two-year-old sire Havana Grey, there are much more compelling pages on offer.
And the page that you have to be drawn to is BENY NAHAR’S. By Kingman, out of a Galileo mare called Propriety who herself reached a mark of 87, this horse is bred to both be very smart, but also have plenty of stamina. And when you see two-year-olds go over this 7f trip at this stage of the season, it’s key to stress just how important that latter trait is. This horse represents an owner that Blog readers will be hoping has a profitable afternoon, with Jaber Abdullah owning our selection in the feature contest. Here, his 2yo Kingman colt has been a close second on his only two career starts, and improved nicely between those two efforts, generating figures of 113 and 121 respectively. It’s a combination of his pedigree and those improving figures that makes this horse the clear selection, in what is a very open race.
Race 9: 17:20 York Sky Bet Mile Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
Class 2 heritage handicap over 1m — tactics and track position are key.
Race Analysis
We look to close Day 3 with a final winner and a quick glance below suggests that this might be another short write-up. That’s because we have a clear standout from a data perspective in the form of the FIFTH COLUMN. Trained by the Gosden team, ridden by William Buick, in the Godolphin silks, this horse arrives having posted an outstanding rating in defeat of 182. That figure in isolation demands absolute respect, and has already been proven with the 2nd horse that day going on to win at the Shergar Cup at Ascot, so we can be confident in taking the figure at face value. This horse equally heads the TPR figures, and that’s driven by that clear improving form profile, as well as his trainer’s relentless form, and outstanding pedigree. A quick comment on the Breeding Data where our Dashboard members can click and expand to reveal a whole host of interesting new variables. Within that, you will see that this horse is once again represented by Kingman whose progeny statistics continue to be of the very highest quality. He was a superstar on the track, but my goodness this horse has been equally as good as a sire! It is not often we see such standout figures like these, especially with a horse far from being at the head of the market!
For Exotics purposes for a final race return, I have to mention the outstanding credentials of the Geoff Oldroyd runner, BIG LEADER. On rare occasions in racing, a horse’s performance on the eye can leave you with that feeling that you’ve seen something potentially special. And at a run-of-the-mill race at Thirsk 20 days ago, I believe I saw something in the way this big son of Mehmas travelled into his race and put it to bed late on. A snug victory likely suppressed his rating of 120, but it followed figures of 181 and 158 and these definitely bring him to attention.
🎲 Tote Placepot – York August 22 (First 6 Races)
- Leg 1 (13:50): Naqeeb (2)
- Leg 2 (14:25): Trawlerman (1)
- Leg 3 (15:00): Do Or Do Not (2), Lifeplan (5)
- Leg 4 (15:35): Sayidah Dariyan (15)
- Leg 5 (16:10): Power Of Destiny (3), Cape Flora (11)
- Leg 6 (16:45): Beny Nahar (1)
📋 Selection Recap
Here are today’s bold selections across 7 races:
- Race 1 (Newmarket 12:50): Dorney Lake (3)
- Race 2 (Newmarket 13:20): Lethal Levi (6)
- Race 3 (York 13:50): Naqeeb (2)
- Race 4 (York 14:25): Trawlerman (1)
- Race 5 (York 15:00): Do Or Do Not (2), Lifeplan (5)
- Race 6 (York 15:35): Sayidah Dariyan (15)
- Race 7 (York 16:10): Power Of Destiny (3), Cape Flora (11)
- Race 8 (York 16:45): Beny Nahar (1)
- Race 9 (York 17:20): Fifth Column (7)
These are the runners highlighted in today’s analysis as offering the strongest data case via EquiAnalytix Total Performance Ratings, breeding insights, and track biases. Use them to shape your Tote World Pool bets.
Conclusion
That concludes Day 3 of the York Ebor Festival, where stamina, class, and sharp handicapping once again combined to deliver fantastic World Pool betting opportunities.
Yesterday’s remarkable results reminded us of the power of the data, with four advised winners at £3.95, £11.35, £2.88 and £4.40, plus six of the seven races won by the top-rated TPR horse. Not to mention Stellar Sunrise, our free tip, landing in style. A day to remember and great to hear so many of you followed in.
Today marks the final day of World Pool action at York, but the EquiAnalytix blog will be live again tomorrow for the Festival’s finale—headlined by the famous Ebor Handicap. Stay tuned, stay sharp, and keep making the most of the insights.
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