Welcome back, new and returning readers, to the EquiAnalytix blog! We’re thrilled to share our data-driven take on the day’s racing, and it couldn’t come at a better time with the second World Pool event of the season. This not only means greater quality and competitive racing, but it also means extra liquidity in the Tote pools bringing far more value to punters!
Last weekend we attempted to land a monster Scoop6 pool of over £500k, and after the perfect start when Our Champ landed the Swinton at a dividend of £9.30, it was unfortunately downhill from there. From a data perspective, we were delighted to get off to a solid start, and with several placed efforts on the afternoon all was not lost. But with Saturday’s return of the World Pool, we are looking ahead towards increased liquidity and value!
Over the last 12 months our Blogs have focused on the very big meetings, and we’re up +121 pts to a 1 pt win stake with the Tote (a 51 % ROI), and our Exacta plays have returned over £380 at a 204 % ROI when two stand-out selections emerged. In other words, the data knows how to find value—across win, Swinger, Exacta and beyond.
Now it’s time to tackle the World Pool card at Newbury, with 8 quality races and of course featuring the 2025 Lockinge.
PLEASE NOTE ALL TOTE LINKS WILL ONLY BE LIVE ON SATURDAY 17TH MAY
Race 1: 12:50 Newbury – Sky Sports Racing Aston Park Stakes (Group 3)
The curtain-raiser is the Sky Sports Racing Aston Park Stakes, a Group 3 over 1m 4f. A deep, competitive field lines up on Lockinge Day, with several proven performers stretching out from middle-distance to staying trips.
Race Analysis
As noted this is an extremely competitive opening contest with the market already wide open overnight. The favourite is KING’S GAMBIT a horse purchased recently by Wathnan racing for the Harry Charlton stable. This horse was most notably a very unlucky loser at last year‘s Royal Ascot, but since went on to be a touch disappointing having been beaten in three subsequent efforts. He therefore arrives here as favourite largely on the back of the potential that he may achieve rather than the performances in the book and with ratings of 164 and 130 for those two previous efforts there are others in this race that look more appealing on the day.
Sat atop the ratings table is AL AASY, a horse trained by the red hot William Haggas stable, with Jim Crowley taking the ride. This horse looks to go back to back after making an impressive start this season at Sandown last month over the 10 furlong trip. That day the horse was slowly away but made good headway during the race and kept on well in the final furlong to win comfortably, achieving a rating of 146. Now that figure in isolation will need improving upon but when you start to compare this horse’s form to others in the race it just looks solid and at the age of eight years old, I wouldn’t be put off this horse going on to land the spoils.
Another horse that needs serious consideration in the race is COURAGE MON AMI, again owned by the Wathnan racing team. This horse will be making his racecourse reappearance having not run for 631 days, when last seen at York in the middle of 2023. At that point this horse had won two from his four career starts and had been competing over staying trips in Group company. Now of course there are clear red flags here given the long layoff as well as the drop back in trip, however this horse has won over that trip twice and it’s hard to get away from his most recent rating, albeit 631 days ago, of 178. He is supremely well bred by Frankel out of the 86-rated Crimson Ribbon and if the John Gosden team can get this horse back rolling at anywhere near his peak, he can cause a surprise in the opener.
🤝 Swinger: Al Aasy & Courage Mon Ami
Race 2: 13:25 Newbury – Highclere Castle Gin Carnarvon Stakes (Listed)
Next up is the Listed Carnarvon Stakes, a sharp 6f sprint that often sets the tone for the day. Speed and tactical versatility are at a premium.
Race Analysis
You will have to forgive me here for pointing out the obvious but the only place to start is with IDES OF MARCH for the all-conquering Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore combination. This horse sits at the top of the ratings table for a very good reason, given his last three outings have yielded figures of 150, 136 and most recently 188. That recent run came when finishing second at Navan where he was only collared late by an impressive stablemate, Whistlejacket. Given most of O’Brien‘s horses have looked to improve for a run this year, I would expect more to come from this horse, and this son of Wootton Bassett looks incredibly difficult to oppose.
Of the competition I would expect a very good run from Clive Cox’s HOLD A DREAM. This horse was pitched into the deep end on season reappearance at Chelmsford having looked an absolute certainty for handicaps. That day she stepped into Listed company over the 6 furlong trip and certainly did herself justice finishing second. But what was most notable was the figure she achieved of 151. Whilst today’s conditions will require much more from this horse, with the team in red hot form and Rossa Ryan taking the ride I wouldn’t be surprised to see this horse cause a surprise at a decent price.
🎯 Exacta: Ides of March → Hold A Dream
Race 3: 14:00 Newbury – Trade Nation London Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage)
Race 3 is the London Gold Cup, a 1m 2f handicap whose large field includes both unexposed types and classy improvers.
Race Analysis
The market here has latched on early to the Aidan O’Brien trained GENEALOGY, who makes his handicap debut off an opening mark of 96, which on paper may look lenient. But when you consider his last his three ratings achieved of 84, 89 and 59 this horse is going to require much, much more on the day to land the spoils. It’s just very difficult to get away from those figures and despite his standout pedigree being by Wootton Bassett out of Musical Art who herself was a 97-rated filly, there are far too many question marks against this horse and the price simply does not appeal.
Instead, I think it pays to look further adrift and when you consider the red hot form of the Andrew Balding stable you can understand why QUAI DE BETHUNE sits so highly in the ratings table. The horse’s last three race races have yielded figures of 125, 128 and 155, with the latter being a clear stand out piece of form in this race. The upward trajectory of these ratings has come despite appearing to be regressive, having finished 1st at Kempton three start ago, 4th in his penultimate run and only 6th last time. The last day the post-race comment read that this horse made no impression, hung left and was well held inside the final furlong but it’s his isolated figure of 155 and the subsequent form of that race that suggest he can go well here.
It may be wise for those looking at the Exotics pools to play this horse with the Roger Varian trained SADDADD, who arrives here having had three career starts – one win one second and one third. His most recent outing was here over course and distance where he finished second off an opening mark of 92. That day he was no match for a very impressive winner, but three ratings of 141, 130 and 123 certainly require consideration and therefore I would not put anyone off looking at the Tote Swinger market for a race like this where the dividends can pay if you get two outsiders in the places.
🤝 Swinger: Quai de Bethune & Saddadd
Race 4: 14:35 Newbury – BoyleSports Lockinge Stakes (Group 1)
The feature is the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes over a mile, pitting Britain’s leading milers in a genuine championship heat.
Race Analysis
The current market leader is the Richard Hannon trained ROSALLION who boasts a near-perfect record last season with two wins from three starts. With his only defeat coming in the 2,000 Guineas, he subsequently went on to land the Irish Guineas before taking the St James‘s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, his final outing of the 2024 season. He has continued to produce exemplary figures of 139, 135 and 152 which clearly support this very high class horse. But you also need to consider that this will be the horse’s season reappearance, and he does face a very competitive field. From a data perspective, there is not much in it but the market right now is suggesting something different, and therefore we have to take that NOTABLE SPEECH can uphold that 2,000 Guineas form for the Charlie Appleby team. He was of course a very impressive winner that day at Newmarket, and putting a line through his effort at Royal Ascot, had a terrific season. The Charlie Appleby team have so far started this season incredibly strongly and with this horse’s most recent rating at Goodwood of 175 actually being the highest piece of form on offer, a chance is taken that the market has just got this one wrong.
🎯 Exacta: Notable Speech → Rosallion
Race 5: 15:10 Newbury – Childwickbury Stud Fillies’ Trial Stakes (Listed)
Race 5 is the Listed Fillies’ Trial Stakes, over 1m 2f for three-year-old fillies—a key stepping stone for those bound for mid-season pattern contests.
Race Analysis
Again, the overnight market has latched onto another Aidan O’Brien horse, this time ECSTATIC. This horse arguably brings in the very best form into the race and with an official BHA handicap mark of 99, she certainly sets the standard. However, the questions against her here are two fold: her recent ratings of 106, 134 and 53 on the most recent outings certainly need improving upon and secondly you have to consider that many of the opposition are incredibly lightly raced and open to any amount of improvement.
That statement holds for several of these with both Ralph Beckett fillies LIKEALOT and REVOIR no doubt proving popular on the afternoon. But with respective winning ratings of just 89 and 76, I would rather focus attention to the top of the table where you see several horses that have achieved far more in a short period of time. SAND GAZELLE for the Gosden team ran respectively at Newmarket earlier in the month, finishing fourth that day behind a runaway winner. There was an argument that that filly could’ve finished closer and on her second start of the season I’m willing to give her the benefit of the doubt that she can take another step forward here. I think she’s sure to give punters a run for their money and when you consider this horse’s pedigree being by Frankel out of the 88-rated Desirous, it certainly supports the fact that she should go onto better things.
I do also want to give a strong mention here for the Michael Bell trained CECILIA STAR for the man of the moment Kieran Shoemark. This horse only began her career in March when she landed a maiden contest at Newcastle over 10 furlongs. That day she showed an incredible amount of greenness and was only ever doing enough in the final furlong to land the spoils. An opening rating 113 will need to be improved upon but this daughter of See The Stars was incredibly well backed that day and is open to any amount of improvement here and I would not be surprised to see her take a very big step forward and outrun large odds.
🎯 Trifecta Box: Ecstatic / Sand Gazelle / Cecilia Star
Race 6: 15:45 Newbury – Hong Kong Jockey Club Handicap (0–105, 6f)
Race 6 drops back to 6f for the Hong Kong Jockey Club Handicap (0–105), a fiercely competitive sprint where every pound counts.
Race Analysis
Quite honestly in this race you can throw a blanket over nearly the entire field and a quick glance at the rating table supports that. With several of these horses operating at a very high-level, with ratings clearly above the 150 mark, it becomes very difficult to begin filtering through them. COMPLETELY RANDOM looks to make it three wins from three starts this season for the Harry Charlton team and his ratings of 160, 156 and 160 set an incredibly high standard. This horse has risen a total of 12lbs in the handicap and given just how impressive he was last time, I would not be surprised to see him go land a third victory. ELMONJED has equally been supported in the market for the William Haggas team and he made an adequate season reappearance at Newmarket last month when finishing 4th, however he did look to be desperately outpaced and in need of the run. Whilst I would expect a big step forward here today, a mark of 96 is going to require an awful lot more from this horse and you’d have to think that he is group quality level to be winning this contest.
Therefore it falls to a horse that achieved a rating of 188 on his most recent run, COVER UP. This horses trained by the Simon and Ed Crisford team looks to have the perfect opportunity to get back into the winners enclosure. He was purchased out of the Gosden stable and subsequently went over to the Middle East, running respectively in competitive sprint races. Having arrived back in the UK he made a season reappearance at Musselburgh last month when finishing fifth over the minimum 5f trip. That day he was dropped out and made good headway but wasn’t able to reel back in the eventual winner at track that does favour horses up with the pace. When you consider the rating he achieved of 188 despite finishing fifth you know that the form is solid, and it received a timely boost on Thursday at York. His upward trajectory of recent form coupled with his stable form suggest this horse should go very close at a decent price.
🤝 Swinger: Completely Random & Cover Up
Race 7: 16:20 Newbury – BoyleSports Home Of The Early Payout Handicap (0–105, 1m)
Race 7 is the BoyleSports Home Of The Early Payout Handicap, a mile event where tactical speed and a well-judged ride can be decisive.
Race Analysis
From a ratings perspective this race looks to involve only a handful of horses that sit near the top of the ratings table. KINGDOM COME represents the Clive Cox team and he’s been running to a decent level, albeit fluffed his lines last time when only mustering 13th at Thirsk in a competitive handicap. WITCH HUNTER is always dangerous at this course but has been out of the winners enclosure for some time having last won on the 19th of August 2023 albeit at Newbury. Therefore that leaves us with a horse that I think looks one of the best selections of the day. MY CLOUD, trained by Roger Varian has a standout recent rating of 169 which involved a demolition job of a good race at Ascot. He went clear that day and was hit with a 10lb rise, but this horse is improving fast and I believe can overcome it to land this valuable handicap.
Race 8: 16:55 Newbury – World Pool Handicap (1m, £28k)
The finale is the World Pool Handicap over a mile, boasting a £28,000 purse and a chance for one last big charge.
Race Analysis
For this race it looks to involve just two horses from a data perspective, the William Haggas trained REGALIAN and the Marco Botti trained HYPERCHROMATIC. These two both enter this race having achieved ratings of above 150 on their most recent outings, REGALIAN when finishing 3rd as Southwell and HYPERCHROMATIC when finishing 2nd at Beverley. However, a chance is taken that REGALIAN may just have more improvement in him and off an opening handicap mark of 85 looks certainly capable of winning at this level. Casting an eye at the breeding can often support the case for lightly raced horses and when you consider this horse is by Kingman, out of a high quality Australian mare, Miss Rock, this horse has the pedigree to improve well beyond an opening mark of 85. His figures of 105 and 151 equally support that case and I would expect this horse to take some stopping, and for Exotics players, HYPERCHROMATIC should be a horse that is definitely considered in both Swinger and Exacta bets.
🤝 Swinger: Regalian & Hyperchromatic
🎲 Tote Placepot – Newbury (Races 1–6)
Select at least one horse to place in each of the opening six races at Newbury:
- Leg 1 (12:50): Al Aasy (1), Courage Mon Ami (2)
- Leg 2 (13:25): Ides of March (5)
- Leg 3 (14:00): Quai de Bethune (5), Saddadd (3)
- Leg 4 (14:35): Notable Speech (4), Rosallion (7)
- Leg 5 (15:10): Ecstatic (3), Sand Gazelle (8)
- Leg 6 (15:45): Completely Random (4), Cover Up (1)
Conclusion
Lockinge Day at Newbury blends top-class pattern action with fiercely competitive handicaps. We’ve highlighted a balance of proven stars, in-form improvers and value alternatives for each race and now it’s over to you to build your bets. Good luck, and here’s to a day of data-driven winners!
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