A very warm welcome to new and existing readers of the EquiAnalytix blog series! I am delighted to introduce so many new faces to our data-centric approach to analysing horse racing, and the data could not arrive in better form! Fresh from the launch of our partnership with the Tote last weekend at the 2,000 Guineas Meeting, the EquiAnalytix data began in red hot form. The data correctly predicted the winner of the feature 2,000 Guineas contest, as Ruling Court proved far too good for his rivals on the day. But what’s more, it also got stablemate Shadow Of Light in there for Swinger bet purposes. On the afternoon readers also got to enjoy a big return in Race 3 when Fox Legacy stormed clear for a winning dividend of £9.25, but also landed the Swinger at £8.80 with Arabian Light finishing in the places. Of course the main highlight was the narrow miss in the Newmarket Placepot, where the data was only 1 single place away from landing the spoils at a healthy dividend of £417.20. Overall it was a brilliant start to this new unique series, and one which continued to showcase the data’s ability to navigate the most competitive of racing!
For those that missed out on Saturday, a quick reminder that the data has enjoyed success at nearly every big racing festival over the last 12 months, culminating in an impressive overall profit of +121pts to a level 1pt win stake with the Tote, a tremendous ROI of 51%!
From a total of 236 selections across the various blog posts, exploiting the Tote’s exotics markets would’ve seen even bigger returns with the Exacta market returning over £380 at an ROI of 204% when utilising those races where there are two standout selections from the data!
And what better way to try showcase the data even further than by attempting to land this weekend’s Tote Scoop6 which will have a total prize pot well in excess of £500,000!
All you need to know about the Tote Scoop6
The Scoop6 is a pool bet where you must find the winner in each of the the listed 6 races, notoriously the most competitive races across the day! From a small £2 bet, your selections go into a giant pool where you often have the chance to win fortunes, with this Saturday expected to pay well over £500k.
The concept is very simple, in a similar way to how the National Lottery works, if any of the Scoop6 funds aren’t won on a particular week their value is rolled over to the following week. Like the lottery, this can cause some massive prize funds to be up for grabbing.
Unlike the lottery though, the Scoop6 can be played as a game of skill. By using your knowledge of horses you can increase your odds of winning.
The Scoop6 has the additional benefit of not being all over within a minute. With races spread over around an hour and a half of the afternoon, and the majority of legs televised live on ITV, you get a lot more enjoyment from your stake.
It really is the ultimate test of a punter’s analysis, and so without further ado let’s get the data’s view on each of the six races across Haydock, Lingfield & Ascot!
PLEASE NOTE THAT ALL LINKS TO THE TOTE WEBSITE ARE ONLY LIVE ON THE DAY OF RACING, SATURDAY 10TH MAY
Race 1: 13:35 Haydock – Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle
We begin the afternoon with the Swinton Handicap hurdle at Haydock, the only jumps contest in today’s Scoop6 but a race that is absolutely wide open!
Race Analysis:
With 17 horses going to post, and a current market leader at 7/1, on paper this race looks about as competitive as they come. There is sure to be late money in a race like this given its nature, but at the time of writing the market has really failed to get behind any of the 17. Starting with Harry Derham’s charge, GIVEMEFIVE, he strikes me as the sort of horse that would really appreciate this unique test at Haydock. Having won his last two starts, he is clearly in top form and progressive last 3 EquiAnalytix Speed Ratings of 107, 125 and 142 support that. These are solid figures, but are by no means a standout when compared to the opposition on the day, and with a further 5lb rise asking plenty more of this horse, it appears best to focus attention elsewhere.
Instead I want to dive in on those two horses who top the table and rank with the highest Total Performance Rating (TPR) on the day. The TPR is a machine-learning generated figure based on all the previous form, breeding and other metrics we collect for each horse at EquiAnalytix. It is most often the best place to start in a race and here it’s brought up two potentially interesting contenders. The more obvious of the two is OUR CHAMP for the Chris Gordon team, who arguably was unlucky to bump into two very high class Willie Mullins horses at Plumpton last time. With the caliber of those horses not present in this year’s Swinton, a chance is taken that this horse can continue his run of strong ratings and get back into the winner’s enclosure. Figures of 170, 112 and 159 on his last 3 races are a testament not only to this horse’s ability but his consistency and he has to be bang there at the finish.
The other that must be taken in this competitive opener is the 10yo GLORY AND FORTUNE. Having not won for some time, this horse bounced back to form at Chepstow recently when landing a good quality handicap hurdle by 3/4 a length to HELNWEIN, who re-opposes. That day the selection carried a welter burden of 12st when winning, earning an eye-catching rating of 211 for his efforts. In isolation, that is the very best weight carrying performance in the field and deserves the upmost respect. The Tom Lacey team continue to operate at at a high level of recent form, and therefore this 10yo should have a good chance of backing up.
🤝 Swinger: Our Champ & Glory And Fortune
Race 2: 13:50 Lingfield – William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap
For Race 2 we head South to Lingfield for their 2nd race of the day, a competitive handicap over the 1m 2f.
Race Analysis:
Whilst a smaller field of 9 go to post for this contest, it still features a field of horse who have all recorded recent EquiAnalytix Speed Ratings that are in excess of our benchmark level of 100. Arguably none more so than the Roger Varian trained FOX AVATAR. This horse has only had the 4 career starts, but in the process has recorded ratings of 128, 129, 0 and 151 – with the rating of 0 coming at Nottingham at the back end of last season where the horse faced very soft ground. With a line put through that run, it was great to see this horse bounce back on his season reappearance at Chelmsford last month, where he finished 4th earning a standout rating of 151. At a track where it often pays to be on the speed, this horse was held and up and was doing all his best work late on, so do not be surprised to see more positive tactics deployed this time round. For me, he looks solid in the ratings and should be very difficult to beat. For those looking for a second or even third option for those Exotics markets, GINCIDENT has to be of serious consideration and I cannot rule out a big performance from PARTY ISLAND who despite being better known for his all-weather exploits, is beginning to lurk on a very dangerous mark.
Race 3: 14:40 Ascot – Schweppes Victoria Cup
Up next head to the 3rd venue of the day, Ascot. Here we are faced with a the Victoria Cup, a Heritage handicap that will see a huge field of 18 hurtling down Berkshire’s famous home straight.
Race Analysis:
Ascot is famous for these competitive handicaps over the straight 7f or 1m, and this year’s Victoria Cup is no different. Often though I find many get caught up debating draw bias, when in actual fact the EquiAnalytix data clearly shows the focus should be on pace bias. By analysing every race ran under these conditions over the past 20yrs+, we are able to paint a good picture of how often it favours those held up off a strong pace. Members of our Dashboard product will have seen plenty of pace drawn middle-to-high but also some in those lower numbers, and this is very important when you consider the horse that sits atop of the ratings table, ROI DE FRANCE. This horse represents the powerful Team Gosden, with Oisin Murphy taking the ride on this son of Sea The Stars. Drawn in 18, this horse looks likely to get a good gallop to aim at, and boasts far superior recent form to many of his rivals. Recent ratings of 169, 140 and 214 showcase a very high class horse, and one that looks every bit your “Group-horse in a handicap”, and I expect him to take some stopping.
Of the remainder despite the lowest draw of them all in stall 1, I cannot get away from the fact that POPMASTER looks well-handicapped. A LTO rating figure of 200 cements the view that this horse is coming to form, and the Walker team are operating at an average rating of 112 right now with 71% of their horses running to form.. those are serious metrics. As mentioned, there appears to be pockets of pace from very low stall numbers and that might just see this horse get itself into the frame at a price.
🤝 Swinger: Roi De France & Popmaster
Race 4: 15:15 Ascot – Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Handicap
We remain at Ascot for Race 4 for their middle-distance handicap over the 1m 4f trip.
Race Analysis:
Race 4 is an interesting contest given the market has clearly latched onto the unbeaten TURQUINO for Andrew Balding. He will no doubt prove popular on the day given his two career wins have generated ratings of 155 and 138 respectively. Those two victories were earned in novice company on the all-weather surface, the first at Southwell and the second at Newcastle, both in March. He won those in good enough style and the ratings achieved I believe can be taken at face value, but the race on the day will demand a lot more from him off an opening market of 86 and I believe he is vulnerable. Experience can often pay in these types of races and with not an obvious strong pace guaranteed, this big galloper mightn’t be seen to best effect.
Of the rest then, I believe it’s between the two horses that have recently achieved ratings of 144, FIREBLADE & OCEAN OF DREAMS. Slight preference here would be for the former as despite identical ratings, the subsequent form of the race won at Leicester has worked out very well with the 2nd horse winning next time out at Windsor. This Dylan Cunha trained 4yo gelding looks to be another shrewd purchase by connections who are building a reputation for improving well-bred horses from other stables, and not many horses are better bred than this son of Frankel out of a listed winning mare.
🤝 Swinger: Fireblade & Ocean Of Dreams
Race 5: 16:45 Lingfield – William Hill More Top Prices Handicap
Next we head back to Lingfield for a race over the minimum 5f trip for horses rated 0-70. Whilst not the standard of many races on the day, this looks wide open.
Race Analysis:
But there is a horse lurking in here that just looks too obvious to ignore. That horse is BANG ON THE BELL for the Jenkins team, who really bounced back to top form last when landing the spoils at Windsor. That race looked more competitive on paper than this, and a rating of 103 for winning was enough on the day. That’s not the highest of figures, but this also isn’s the strongest of ratings and when you consider this horse’s back form where he was operating at marks in the 80s, albeit on the all-weather, there is a definite class about him. A track such as this should suit very well and I expect him to be out and away trying to make all.
There is though one other horse I wanted to mention here that may just fly under the radar for most people. That horse is OUTER EDGE for jockey Gina Mangan. The horse won last time at Wolverhampton and remains lightly raced over the sprint trip. His figure of 122 last time when winning is the highest piece of recent form and demands respect regardless what you think of the horses he beat on the day. He stays a strong 5f trip and I would expect him to be on the heels of the selection and can see them both make it into the frame.
🏆 Back Bang On The Bell to Win
🤝 Swinger: Bang On The Bell & Outer Edge
Race 6: 17:00 Ascot – Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Blue Ribbon Handicap
We finish the day with a final race from Ascot, and if we do arrive here still in contention, let’s hope it’s the lucky last!
Race Analysis:
This 6f handicap looks a really trappy race on paper, where a case can be made for several of the horses. The one that will prove popular on the day is NORTHCLIFF, who looks to make it 3 wins in quick succession. This horse will be making his debut for trainer Thomas Faulkner having recently changed hands at the Guineas Horses in Training sale at Tattersalls, and really there lies my worry. Despite standout figures of 132 and 164 on those most recent runs, he sits only mid-table on the TPR basis. And the reason for that is he remains inconsistent and has struggled during periods of his career when creeping up the handicap. A mark today of 80 is going to demand a clear career best and I would be surprised if former connections were willing to offload a horse they felt had much more to give.
With that, it leaves the contest wide open and I can sit and make a case for several from a data perspective. MUMAYAZ often runs a race but is equally inconsistent, and DREAM OF MISCHIEF will need to improve after his latest effort 19 days ago. Instead, I want to chance to for a final Swinger selection, ARNAZ & REBEL PATH. Both of these horses boast solid LTO figures of 136 and 140 respectively and both are more than capable of winning off their respective marks. With the former’s outstanding stable form, and the latter’s outstanding TPR figure for the race, both look set to have big chances.
💰 Tote Scoop6 Jackpot
The Scoop6 is your shot at half a million from a minimum £2 stake. Here’s our data-led approach across today’s six selected races:
Leg 1 13:35 Haydock: 2 (Our Champ), 5 (Glory And Fortune)
Leg 2 13:50 Lingfield: 6 (Fox Avatar)
Leg 3 14:40 Ascot: 2 (Roi De France)
Leg 4 15:15 Ascot: 7 (Fireblade)
Leg 5 16:45 Lingfield: 1 (Bang On The Bell)
Leg 6 17:00 Ascot: 8 (Rebel Path), 9 (Arnaz)
Closing remarks:
To conclude, I wanted to thank you all for your interest in EquiAnalytix and how we go about using our data to analyse each race. We are building a strong community of like-minded individuals here who want a different angle to their form reading, and therefore I hope today’s insights were interesting and helped you find a few winners along the way! Our data-led approach lends itself to the pools on offer by the Tote and these are amplified on a Saturday where the market volume is so much better. As always I welcome any feedback, and if you like what you have read here, remember that you can access all this data, for every single runner, every single day via our website, iOS app or newly launched Android app!