Introduction
Welcome back to our Tote World Pool Guide, where we head into Day 3 of the Qatar Goodwood Festival! And what a surprise it was for many, with one solitary favourite winning. It was of course the Sussex Stakes that was the biggest surprise of all, with 150/1 supposed “pace-setter” Qirat winning, with Field Of Gold nowhere to be seen. You have to question the riding tactics of several there in the race, but the race was there to be won and if you found that, I salute you! As for the data, it was a very quiet day of placed efforts at best, and a quick reminder after yesterday’s heroics that this game is certainly not linear! But the data continues to look strong and we head into day 3 full of confidence.
As a reminder, at EquiAnalytix, we’ve spent over fifty years compiling form lines, pace biases, and breeding data into our proprietary Speed Ratings and machine-learning algorithms. By focusing on the Tote World Pool, where betting volume and prize pools are at their deepest, we consistently uncover value horses that the market overlooks, whether in Win markets, Exactas, Trifectas or multi-leg Exotic combinations.
So how about we get onto Day 3?!
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Race 1: 13:20 Coral Kincsem Handicap
A 10-furlong handicap featuring 18 runners vying for honors in this competitive opener.
Race Analysis
We begin the afternoon with a rather tough looking handicap over near 1m 2f, a field full of very unexposed horses where at the time of writing the market speaking favourably for the Wathnan Racing contender, BEST SECRET. This horse was a gallant third 40 days ago at Royal Ascot in the Golden Gates, and this son of Persian King looks certain to play a big part in the race here – albeit the rating achieved of just 118 will certainly need improving upon.
Topping the Total Performance Ratings is the William Haggas trained HIGH DEGREE who equally deserves maximum respect, as this horse hasn’t finished outside the top two on three career starts, boasting rising ratings of 101, 113 and 121. That’s a very impressive record and this son of Too Darn Hot has the pedigree to suggest that a mark of 93 might not be beyond him. The Haggas stable remain in superb form, with their one-month average rating of all runners as high as 106, with 71% of runners, running to form. This unexposed sort needs siding with here.
It wouldn’t be a competitive handicap without the data pulling out a fascinating big-priced contender, often a horse completely overlooked by the majority of punters. MARKHABA GHAIYYATH would tick plenty of those boxes, with recent figures of 159, 170 and 142, but is bettered by the James Horton trained SERENITY BLUE. With P J McDonald taking the ride, this chestnut colt equally has a very unexposed profile, winning twice from three career starts. It was the latter of those three runs that we need to focus on here, as it came at Redcar 41 days ago when he was seen travelling strongly, before ultimately winning eased-down… earning a huge rating of 170. The handicapper has reacted by giving the horse an opening mark of 88 which looks fair, and my honest view is that this horse presently is far too big in the market, and can certainly outrun those odds.
Race 2: 13:55 Markel Richmond Stakes (Group 2)
Group 2 action for colts and geldings over 6 furlongs with 9 promising juveniles.
Race Analysis
The two-year-olds are back in focus here and frankly this looks a below-par renewal of this prestigious Group 2. It may seem a harsh comment, but looking at the data below there are so many question marks against several of the contenders, especially those that made a bright start to their careers before disappointing on their most recent runs. It’s a real minefield and hence we will look to tackle this from two angles.
Two very powerful indicators from the data, proven by years of back-testing, continue to be the breeding on the sire side & a horse’s most recent EquiAnalytix Speed Rating. For the former, it’s easy to be drawn towards PUERTO RICO for the O’Brien team. This horse has yet to get his head in front in three career starts, but last time was not disgraced in behind a very well-regarded stablemate in a Group 2 contest at the Curragh. But it’s this horse’s pedigree that demands attention, being by Wootton Bassett who continues to have a superb season with his 2yos, averaging a rating of 89 across all his 2yo runners. That is by far the best pedigree insight from the field, and considering the selection’s mother, April Showers, got to a career high mark of 102, he is blue-blooded and can take a big step forward.
And on the second angle, focussing in on recent performances we are actually taken north to Ayr, the venue of UNDERWRITER’S dominant display last time, a race where he recorded a very strong rating of 153, the best piece of recent form on offer. He has the blip at Ascot to overcome of course where he ran no race whatsoever, but the figures suggest a line can be put through that and the Wathnan Racing team can potentially add another to their impressive list of results this season!
Race 3: 14:30 HKJC World Pool Gordon Stakes (Group 3)
Group 3 staying contest over 12 furlongs with 7 runners competing.
Race Analysis
This race looks a potential cracker, as despite only 7 runners, it features a field full of consistently high ratings. The market has been very strong for MERCHANT for the Haggas and Marquand combination, and this horse will be seeking a hat-trick having won well at Ascot last time in the King George V Stakes – a day where he proved to be your “Group horse in a handicap”. He will of course need to take a step forward for a rise into Group 2 company, and I just have to think the market has got a little carried away at current levels and I would be happy to take him on based on the data.
The question is with whom? GALVESTON will no doubt return to the winner’s enclosure soon, with recent ratings of 119, 142 and 136 showing the ability this horse has. But the same can be said for both RAHIEBB and WINDLORD whose figures actually better than that level. But with so many questions, we will be sticking to the top of the ratings table with SIR DINADAN. Trained by the red-hot Beckett stable, this horse has largely been ruled out so far for potentially being “flattered” in the Irish Derby. A 5th place finish that day doesn’t tell the entire story as there were several points up the home straight where this son of Camelot looked set to go very close. What is often a very powerful tool from the data is to compare what you’ve seen with your own eyes, to the underlying figures. And it’s hard to overlook the standout figure of 199 he achieved that day. It’s a monster effort, and whilst he still needs to prove his stamina for a real stretched 1m 4f race, this trappier contest could just be the key and at the prices he has to be the one we take forward here.
Race 4: 15:05 Qatar Nassau Stakes (Group 1)
The feature Group 1 for fillies and mares over 10 furlongs with 5 elite runners.
Race Analysis
There will be a potential touch of “Groundhog Day” for returning readers, as the Group 1 features a horse that on all data, should be incredibly difficult to beat. Yesterday it was Field Of Gold and he ultimately disappointed in what was a ridiculous race from a tactical perspective, but this time you’d like to think the O’Brien operation will not be letting the same happen to their filly, WHIRL. This 3yo daughter of Wootton Bassett, out of Galileo mare Salsa, was last seen in a dominating display in the Group 1 Pretty Polly at the Curragh 33 days ago. That day, despite receiving the weight allowance, beat Kalpana who subsequently went on to run a brilliant race in the King George at Ascot, and is now a well-fancied horse for this year’s Arc. However, what really cements this filly as a potential star is her rating that day of 203 – which is staggering when you consider the light weight she carried. She could be very classy, and we would hope that normality is restored in this Group 1 Nassau Stakes.
Race 5: 15:45 Buccellati Handicap
A 5-furlong sprint handicap with a full field of 16 runners charging downhill.
Race Analysis
A wide-open sprint contest here and with the market showing a shortest price of 7/1, it gives you a real insight into the competitive nature of this race. What is for sure, is we will see RUBY’S PROFIT burning away from the front early and will attempt to make all, and I would caution right now that if given an uncontested lead, this horse has the ability to win again at a track which favours that running style. From a ratings perspective however we will take her on here, given much of the field have been performing at a much higher recent level.
NAD ALSHIBA GREEN can go very close having been a touch unlucky at Sandown last time, and the Jack Channon trained GETREADYTORUMBLE can be competitive. But there are two outsiders here that I would like to focus in on for very obvious reasons, given there is only 1pt between their more recent ratings! The first is DAN TUCKER for the Jedd O’Keeffe team. Ridden by Jack Garritty, this horse arrives off the back of a very big effort at Pontefract where he achieved a figure of 160. That’s the best rating on offer here and whilst Pontefract can sometimes throw up a few big figures, the manner in which he travelled and won suggests that a 4lb rise might be lenient. The second that I want to mention here is a horse at an even bigger price, WHEELS OF FIRE. This horse may surprise a few of you, given off a mark of just 78, jockey Sam Hitchcott will be riding very light at 8st 6lbs! He is currently 0 from 6 in handicap company, but I would argue was unlucky last time and still managed to achieve a figure of 159. In fact, his last three ratings of 122, 123 and the aforementioned 159 clearly stand out in this contest and the market again looks to be overly penalising this horse.
Race 6: 16:20 Phase Eight Nursery Handicap
A nursery handicap over 7 furlongs featuring 11 juvenile runners.
Race Analysis
A nursery handicap up next here and based on the data below, it looks to revolve around just a few of these unexposed two-year-olds. The market leader at the time of writing is VICTORIOUS ONE for the Ralph Beckett team, and that horse will be looking to break a series of three 2nds of late, but an opening mark of 85 is going to require a fairly big step forward. The same cannot be said for SIR ALBERT who overcame an opening mark of 80 at Chester 20 days ago, winning well and in the process returning a very commendable rating of 142. That looks very solid, but in fact has only been bettered by one, and that horse is HEY TRU BLUE. A representative of the George Boughey stable, this son of Blue Point has a win and a second to his name from three starts. But it was that last time out win at Doncaster that really stands out from the data, given the horse achieved a leading rating of 147. Blue Point continues to operate very highly in the sire rankings, and with natural progression to come, a mark of 86 looks more than achievable.
Race 7: 16:55 Tatler British EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes
A maiden fillies’ stakes over 7 furlongs with 18 unexposed runners.
Race Analysis
We stick with two-year-olds here but I will admit that this contest fascinates me. A field of very unexposed, yet beautifully bred horses, is a real test of the punter when analysing the race. AYLIN is a horse that boasts a standout rating of 120 for a debut effort 2nd, and I would not put anyone off that horse as she looks to go one better here. My issue is that we know just how powerful the EquiAnalytix Breeding data is, and it suggests we should put our interest elsewhere. And the two we are immediately drawn to are the Frankel pair of DICTAL & PROPOSAL. The former has been seen on the track twice and has done nothing wrong in two defeats so far, but the latter is a newcomer that really ticks the box of “could be anything”. Trained by the Haggas team, this horse is a daughter of One Voice, a mare who reached an eye-watering mark of 114 on the track. Now you’d like to think that this £350,000 purchase by team Wathnan could live up to the hype, and the Breeding data here suggests she just might!
Race 8: 17:30 World Pool Bet With The Tote Handicap
The day concludes with a 20-runner handicap over 8 furlongs in the lucky last.
Race Analysis
We close the afternoon with what looks to be a devillishly diffciult 20-runner handicap to analyse, but I must say that my eye on the data is drawn to one horse alone, KALEIDO. Representing the in-form Gosden team, ridden by Oisin Murphy, this son of Make Believe made a very big impression on the data last time when winning at Yarmouth. Off an opening mark of 82, that day he travelled very well and put the race to bed late-on for a comfortable success, but in the process earned a mammoth rating of 172. That day he was of course entitled to win given the very short price he went off, but the figures don’t tend to lie, and here off an unchanged mark of 82, the handicapper might have let one slip through here.
🎲 Tote Placepot – Goodwood July 30 (First 6 Races)
- Leg 1 (13:20): High Degree (9), Serenity Blue (15)
- Leg 2 (13:55): Puerto Rico (7), Underwriter (9)
- Leg 3 (14:30): Sir Dinadan (4)
- Leg 4 (15:05): Whirl (5)
- Leg 5 (15:45): Dan Tucker (7), Wheels Of Fire (14)
- Leg 6 (16:20): Hey Tru Blue (2)
📋 Selection Recap
Here are all of today’s bold selections across 8 races:
- Race 1 (13:20): High Degree (9), Serenity Blue (15)
- Race 2 (13:55): Puerto Rico (7), Underwriter (9)
- Race 3 (14:30): Sir Dinadan (4)
- Race 4 (15:05): Whirl (5)
- Race 5 (15:45): Dan Tucker (7), Wheels Of Fire (14)
- Race 6 (16:20): Hey Tru Blue (2)
- Race 7 (16:55): Proposal (14)
- Race 8 (17:30): Kaleido (16)
These selections represent horses highlighted in the analysis as having strong potential based on EquiAnalytix data models and pedigree analysis.
Conclusion
And that concludes Day 3 of Glorious Goodwood. We’ve witnessed top-class racing yet again and we hope our data-driven insights, standout selections, and Placepot strategy helped you navigate each contest confidently. Whether backing our Win selections, exploring Exotics markets, or playing the Placepot, you’ve seen how EquiAnalytix sharpens your edge in the Tote World Pool.
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