Introduction
Welcome back to our Tote World Pool Guide, where we move straight into Day 2 of the Qatar Goodwood Festival! With the excitement of Day 1 still lingering, we have to begin by acknowledging what a day it was from the data. Three individual winners on the afternoon, priced at £3.13, £6.50, and a huge £26.00 in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes – not forgetting we also landed a £9.00 Swinger in the same race! It has been some start to the week, and I was personally thrilled to hear from so many of you that had profited from the selections on the day. The data continues to showcase its ability to find those unconsidered horses at large prices, taking advantage of the excess liquidity in the Tote World Pool to find clear value!
At EquiAnalytix, we’ve spent over fifty years compiling form lines, pace biases, and breeding data into our proprietary Speed Ratings and machine-learning algorithms. By focusing on the Tote World Pool, where betting volume and prize pools are at their deepest, we consistently uncover value horses that the market overlooks, whether in Win markets, Exactas, Trifectas or multi-leg Exotic combinations.
So how about we get onto Day 2?!
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Race 1: 13:20 Coral Pipped At The Post Winners Handicap
A 12-furlong handicap for previous winners featuring nine runners contesting this GBBPlus race.
Race Analysis
Day 2 gets underway with this open-looking handicap, something we will be saying plenty on the day as we review each race. A glance below at the ratings table will showcase exactly that, with a blanket being able to be thrown over several of the runners. Consistent ratings in the 120-140s suggest it’s a good renewal, and hence it’s going to be important to identify those horses that are on an upward curve.
OMNI MAN and KURAKKA are examples of horses that have clear standout recent ratings; their respective yards remain in good form and they are bred to be competitive. But they are also an example of two horses where all those metrics are on a slight downturn, and given the open nature of this contest we would much prefer to see that improving profile. Heading the Total Performance Ratings is the Roger Varian trained SUDUD, and he is the first of two selections for this race, most notably for his destruction of a good field at Epsom last time. That day he seemingly sprouted wings and put the race to bed with ease, winning by just over 7 lengths. He, of course, was not missed by the handicapper as a result, with his mark hiked by 11lbs to 86. But that day a rating of 120 was certainly a good effort, and it followed a rating of 138 which sees him top of the list for the competitive race. At the time of writing, market confidence behind the selection seems to be forming and with the stable in top form, it’s easy to understand why.
Of the remainder, I couldn’t go without mentioning the Charlie Johnston trained MDAWI, especially given this yard’s historical record at Goodwood. This horse is your typical “Johnston horse”, tough as they come and seemingly has endless amounts of stamina and resolve. Last seen at Doncaster 11 days ago, he battled strongly to the line to record a narrow victory, but in the process earned a standout rating of 147. That followed a quality performance at Haydock 15 days prior where he recorded an equally impressive rating of 139. He’s a firm example of a horse on an upward trajectory, and he is certainly not at his ceiling just yet and ranks a quality option at a big price.
Race 2: 13:55 HKJC World Pool Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3)
Group 3 action for fillies and mares over 7 furlongs, with 14 runners competing.
Race Analysis
This Group 3 contest brings in some fascinating form, and is represented by some supremely bred fillies and mares, all looking to further bolster their value as broodmares. Topping the table is BRIGHT THUNDER for the Karl Burke team, a filly clearly with plenty of ability after her Listed success last time out at Deauville. Whilst we don’t have the figures for that performance, her subsequent runs of 149, 170 and 124 clearly support her case and she is certain to be there at the finish. The same can equally be said for both SAQQARA SANDS & JABAARA, where the former ranks as potentially very interesting at a big price given her fast improving figures of 92, 128 and 140. She is the stablemate of TABITI who at the time of writing is proving very popular in the early market, notably receiving the assistance in the saddle from Ryan Moore. This filly ran a smart race last time in the Sandringham when carrying top weight, and a rating of 152 for that effort will see her go very close here.
But purely from a data perspective I cannot get away from the James Tate trained CLOUD COVER. A leap of faith must be taken with this filly, given it will be the first time she has been seen back on turf for a long while, having been ultra-consistent on the all-weather surface – so much so that if this race was being run at Newcastle, she would clearly be at the head of the market. Her last three outings have yielded ratings of 134, 170 and 172, clearly showcasing just how classy this mare is on her day, and being by Night Of Thunder there is absolutely no reason to suggest why she wouldn’t handle this surface. There is enough give in the underfoot conditions to give hope she can carry her top all-weather form across, and I think right now the market is overly discounting her chances.
Race 3: 14:30 HKJC World Pool Molecomb Stakes (Group 3)
Juvenile sprint action over 5 furlongs in this Group 3 contest with 8 promising runners.
Race Analysis
While only 8 runners will go to post here, this Molecomb Stakes looks a real tough one to assess, and from a data perspective we find it very difficult to split the top two, LADY IMAN & MILITARY CODE, where you can see we have only slight preference for the latter. The former brings in the very best form to this race, with this daughter of Starman’s only blip being last time when chasing down a potentially smart type from the O’Brien stable. That was over the 6f trip and this return to 5f on a fast track looks certain to suit, and her relentless early speed will see her go very close. But heading the TPR figures is MILITARY CODE who has a blip of his own to contend with in the Coventry at Royal Ascot, but bounced back to a figure of 141 at Sandown last time. His stable remain in top form, and it’s the Breeding Data that seals it for us given this horse is by the sire-of-the-moment Wootton Bassett, who’s progeny are currently averaging 87 on the track, rising to 89 in 2yo contests… by far the best data on offer. And therefore at the prices a chance is taken here, and I certainly would not put anyone off covering with an Exacta!
Race 4: 15:05 Visit Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1)
The feature Group 1 mile contest headlines the card with 7 elite runners going to post.
Race Analysis
The Sussex Stakes is always a highlight of the week and this year’s renewal is certainly no different. As much as maximum respect needs to be given to HENRI MATISSE, DOCKLANDS and ROSALLION, it’s very difficult to oppose FIELD OF GOLD here, especially with such standout recent ratings. 140, 175 and 157 have been recorded in three consecutive top-class races, and this son of Kingman has the pedigree to match it. A short price yes, but this horse should be landing this contest and will be quite a sight coming up the home straight.
Race 5: 15:45 British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap
A 10-furlong handicap for fillies with 14 runners competing in this competitive contest.
Race Analysis
Heading back into handicap company here we are faced with a sea of impressive ratings, all above our benchmark level of 100, but what’s most interesting is that most of these have found winning very elusive. That latter comment can’t be said, of course, for MODEL YUKO, a handicap debutant from the Roger Varian stable who was able to get her head in front last time at Wolverhampton, in the process earning a respectable figure of 137. That will need to be improved upon, but progress is likely for this daughter of Al Kazeem and I would expect her to go close. On the data available, it’s also easy to be drawn towards OUR GOLDEN ONE for trainer Tom Ward, where having one looked like a potential Pattern company horse, has found winning very difficult of late. Despite a standout rating of 173 last time at Chester, the suspicion here is that she would want a deluge of rain to appear before race time, so watch out if that does come.
Instead therefore I want to focus on the top of the table and with the Alan King trained WISPER. This horse will need to put a lacklustre performance last time behind her, but when you re-watch that race you will see she was hampered at a key stage, and therefore likely did well to still record a solid figure of 132. That followed a very impressive run at Windsor where she relished the return to turf and earned herself a figure of 151. This horse’s ratings are consistently very high and suggest that there should be more to come from her current mark, despite her remaining a big price in the market.
Race 6: 16:20 Alice Keppel Fillies’ Conditions Stakes
Conditions stakes for fillies over 5 furlongs with 11 runners closing the afternoon action.
Race Analysis
Sticking with the fillies, we return to a 2yo contest here next and frankly speaking, the data is really struggling to land upon a standout here. ZELAINA is a clear market leader and that filly will need to bounce back from Ascot last time but is certainly in the correct hands to do so. But it remains a question mark, and at the prices that risk versus reward doesn’t make sense. LUNA MIA represents connections that have won at the Festival before with a 2yo, but that was with a horse who had achieved far more to date than this filly. TEMPLE OF ATHENA achieved a rating of 136 when winning on debut but that was in much lesser company than this… and really that doesn’t leave us with a huge amount of options.
Therefore we are going to stick with the table below and tentatively put forward LEBRON POWER, who despite needing to take a step forward from her run last time at Sandown, does boast the very best breeding available being by Starman. Starman progeny continue to excel in their first 2yo season, and despite some question marks over the form I feel the market certainly is discounting that enough for this runner.
Race 7: 16:55 World Pool Bet With The Tote Handicap
The finale is a 7-furlong handicap with a maximum field of 20 runners charging downhill.
Race Analysis
We close the day with the aptly named World Pool Bet With The Tote handicap, a massive field of 20 and arguably one of the toughest handicaps of the week. Before we begin, you must humour me for one second as this field features a horse that I personally am involved with. MCMANAMAN for the Joe Tickle team makes his debut for a Racing Club we are connected with, and I wish the team every success. This horse was purchased by me recently at Tattersalls Online sale for the team, a 90-rated horse formerly with Ian Williams. He is a huge price, and the figures below suggest that he has plenty to find on his most recent outing 194 days ago, but don’t discount the horse as based on his 3rd at Chelmsford the time before, the ability certainly remains!
A study of the data here suggests we need to focus our attention on the two Wathnan Racing horses. A team who performed so well at Royal Ascot last month, they will equally want to have winners during this week given their Qatari connection, and on paper it’s difficult to split the two runners despite clear preference in the market for DEFENCE MINISTER. Last seen finishing a gallant 2nd at Sandown 25 days ago, this horse recorded a super rating of 150 and that near enough sets the standard here. But equally you must consider stablemate FINE INTERVIEW who went a few better when recording a rating of 158 for a 3rd place finish at Goodwood. Both of their form is solid and a chance is taken that both will be right there at the finish for those Exotics bets!
🎲 Tote Placepot – Goodwood July 30 (First 6 Races)
- Leg 1 (13:20): Sudu (5), Mdawi (9)
- Leg 2 (13:55): Cloud Cover (3)
- Leg 3 (14:30): Military Code (4)
- Leg 4 (15:05): Field Of Gold (5)
- Leg 5 (15:45): Wisper (6)
- Leg 6 (16:20): Lebron Power (4)
📋 Selection Recap
Here are all of today’s bold selections across 7 races:
- Race 1 (13:20) Sudu (5), Mdawi (9)
- Race 2 (13:55) Cloud Cover (3)
- Race 3 (14:30) Military Code (4)
- Race 4 (15:05) Field Of Gold (5)
- Race 5 (15:45) Wisper (6)
- Race 6 (16:20) Lebron Power (4)
- Race 7 (16:55) Fine Interview (6), Defence Minister (16)
These selections represent horses highlighted in the analysis as having strong potential based on EquiAnalytix data models and pedigree analysis.
Conclusion
And that concludes Day 2 of Glorious Goodwood. We’ve witnessed top-class racing yet again and we hope our data-driven insights, standout selections, and Placepot strategy helped you navigate each contest confidently. Whether backing our Win selections, exploring Exotics markets, or playing the Placepot, you’ve seen how EquiAnalytix sharpens your edge in the Tote World Pool.
The excitement continues tomorrow! Every Goodwood race and beyond is covered in real-time on the EquiAnalytix Dashboard. If today’s analysis helped you spot winners, imagine having these insights for every meeting, every day.
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