Introduction
A very good morning to you all, and welcome back to the 5th and final day of the Qatar Goodwood Festival!
This week already we have spoken a lot about exactly how you can best utilise the EquiAnalytix data to dive deeper than ever before into a race, and I do hope that we’ve picked out some interesting angles for many of you to follow. As a reminder, at EquiAnalytix, we’ve spent over fifty years compiling form lines, pace biases, and breeding data into our proprietary Speed Ratings and machine-learning algorithms. All of this data, packaged into a single easy-to-use Dashboard is the outcome of years of preparation and data-collecting. It has been brilliant to hear from so many new people interested in the platform, and please do continue to keep sending in your questions.
Yesterday was another day in which we managed to find clear value in those early markets from the data, but had a string of placed efforts again, albeit some nice prices. It was therefore a welcome end to the day to see Push The Limit win the “lucky last”, a horse worth following going forwards.
So, how about we get onto the final day?!
Race 1: 13:20 Coral Glorious Stakes (Group 3)
We open with a Group 3 contest over just short of 1m 4f, where only 6 go to post.
Race Analysis
We get underway on this final day of the Glorious Meeting with an intriguing looking 1m 4f contest, a race in which I firmly believe it’s going to come down to in-race tactics. The reason I say that, is that many of these horses will need a firm pace to run at, and with just 6 runners and a lack of a true “trail-blazer”, it could end up into more a sprint. That scenario would leave a horse such as AL AASY vulnerable, albeit his recent ratings of 146, 160 and 142 are certainly admirable. The same could well be said for the Crisford-trained MEYDAAN who equally mightn’t best placed under those sort of tactics. However what’s interesting is that it could well play into the hands of ARABIAN CROWN, who heads the forward-looking Total Performance Ratings, and the selection, CANDLEFORD. The latter just gets the vote here from the data given a bounce back to form 28 days ago which saw the horse run away with the field at Beverley, earning a standout rating of 166. That number in isolation is very impressive, as is the manner of the success. But what’s most notable with this horse is that he is very happy making the running, and I can clearly see a scenario here where he is allowed an easy-lead, allowing this son of Kingman to kick for home late on and catch several of the opposition sleeping in behind. The form figures suggest a big run, and tactics are in this horse’s favour, I would expect a big run at the odds.
Race 2: 13:55 Coral Summer Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
Back into handicap company next with the Coral Summer Handicap, a race ran over the longer distance of 1m 6f.
Race Analysis
A really strong renewal here of this handicap and a race in which I am thoroughly looking forward to watching. A field of 14 strong stayers go to post and a glance at the figures below will show you that the majority are achieving ratings far higher than our benchmark level of 100, indicating a strong race. The market has latched onto another Wathnan Racing runner, this time FRENCH DUKE for team Varian. This horse had looked progressive until a disappointing effort at Ascot 43 days ago. He will need to put that behind him but even then, his prior ratings of 130 and 112 leave a question mark as to how much more improvement this horse has – and hence the data suggests it’s best to take him on.
From the raw figures, ARTISTIC STAR, BARNSO, AERONAUTIC and STRESSFREE all have chances based on their last 3 runs. But for win purposes, it’s hard to get away from SAM HAWKENS for the William Haggas and Tom Marquand combination, a combination we hope will be landing an early double on the day! This horse arrives in fantastic form, having won his last two starts. But it was the ratings achieved for those victories that really catches the eye, 148 and 152. Those ratings are of the very highest level, but also suggest that there is more improvement to come, meaning a 4lb rise from his last effort shouldn’t be stopping him. The team remain in top form with a one-month average rating of runners far higher than their 12-month average, and this wonderfully bred Galileo gelding can take all the stopping.
I couldn’t move on yet without mentioning a lively outsider that I think everyone must consider today, WONDER LEGEND. Representing the Ferguson team, this son of Sea The Stars, out of a Fastnet Rock mare, is bred to not only have stamina in abundance, but to also be very smart. An official rating of 108 suggests he already is, but over these staying trips our data suggests he can go even further. Now to follow this horse you must be willing to put a line through Royal Ascot, where stepped up to the marathon 2m 4f race, he was well-beaten, hampered and eventually pulled up in the home straight. Providing that race hasn’t left a mark on him, when you look at a penultimate speed rating of 222, you have to think this horse is overpriced right now in the market, and we must take advantage of that.
Race 3: 14:30 Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares)
A Group 2 for Fillies and Mares is up next, a contest over the same 1m 6f trip.
Race Analysis
A really good renewal of this Group 2 contest sees a field of fillies and mares where all have chances of winning. Eyes will be drawn to previous clashes between several of these, most notably TERM OF ENDEARMENT’S run in the Bronte Cup at York in May. That horse would have a chance if back to that level of form, but subsequently did nothing for the form when disappointing at Sandown when stepped back up to 2m. I just think on the ratings she looks vulnerable, and I believe the market agrees as she’s certainly not been a well-backed favourite. Her vulnerability in the data is there and so we have to take her on.
The question is with whom. ROYAL ENTRY heads the TPR figures but that horse despite solid enough ratings will need to find plenty of improvement to be competitive here, with the same argument holding for WAARDAH. Instead, I think it best to focus in on GOODIE TWO SHOES, 6yo mare for the Joseph O’Brien team who has taken her form to a whole new level this season in Ireland. Winning her last 3 races is some feat, but recording such high, consistent figures of 156, 152 and 162 is even more impressive. She ranks as a mare arriving her in top-form, and I am a firm believer that it’s always best to catch fillies and mares when they are on a steep upward curve.
I want to also throw in another outsider in a race where there have been plenty of upsets over the years. The race at York back in May also featured ALLONSAY, a 4yo filly from the Ralph Beckett team, who this week is certainly not worried about what the market says! This filly was well beaten at York over this distance, but I was very impressed with the way she battled back to form last time at Pontefract and rating that day of 194 speaks for itself. It sets a very high level and whilst she has plenty to find at the official handicap ratings, this race doesn’t always follow suit and she ranks as another improving filly, that has age on her side.
Race 4: 15:05 Coral Stewards Cup (Heritage Handicap)
The 2025 Stewards Cup, arguably the toughest betting-heat of the entire flat season, where a cavalry charge of 28 runners will be seen over the 6f trip.
Race Analysis
We must start here with GET IT, who will be looking to go back-to-back in this race after making all last year. This horse has one way of going, and it’s to jump out of the stalls and go as fast as he can… and boy can this horse go. He did at Goodwood last year exactly what he did to a good field at Royal Ascot in June, burn them all off from the front and just hold on. His ratings of 184 and 159 on his last two starts are career best efforts, and subsequently this horse has to compete today off a mark of 104, some 6lb higher than last year. It might just be enough to stop him repeating that success, but I warn you all not to underestimate this horse.
Naturally, the William Haggas trained ELMONJED is going to prove popular on the day. The stable have a string of chances earlier on in the card and if they are on for a treble, you watch this horse contract in the market. He heads our TPR figures and that’s given his last three ratings of 137, 161 and 149, plus the outstanding stable form and breeding. He really does tick all the boxes here and I firmly believe that this could be your example of a Group-level horse in a handicap. The way he moved through the race last time at York was a sight to behold, and similar tactics here off a guaranteed good early-pace should hold no fears. The ground is drying up by the minute and it appears this horse has everything he can in his favour.
But it wouldn’t be a competitive handicap without the data throwing out one at a huge price, and this one has to interest you all. COMMANCHE FALLS won this race back in 2022 off a mark of 103. That day he was relentless in the closing stages and ended up being a very good winner of the race. He then went on to rise to a mark of 113, certainly putting himself in Group company. But having not won since September 2023 at York, this horse has found life more difficult over the next 18 months, often keeping very good company in his races, but rarely showing that spark to suggest a win was around the corner. That was however until this season, where we’ve started to see a real uptick in this horse’s ratings, often a leading indictor for a bounce back to form. Having slipped to a mark of 100, this horse has posted figures of 152, 146 and 172 on this last three efforts. Yes, those performances have yielded finishing positions of 2nd, 6th and 8th respectively, but the data remains strong and suggests that if this course was to light a spark once again in this horse, he clearly still retains the ability to be competitive, especially off his reduced mark. The Michael Dods team are having a much more productive time of things this season, as reflected in their figures, and I expect this horse can run a big race, at equally big odds.
Race 5: 15:45 Whispering Angel Handicap
We remain in handicap company for race 5 for this 7f contest.
Race Analysis
As the excitement continues after the Stewards Cup, we dive straight into a contest here where the data is left purring over the pedigree of one of these runners.
And that is of course your current market leader at the time of writing, MUDBIR, a horse who represents the in-form Gosden team, with jockey Jim Crowley taking the ride. Arriving off the back of a solid success at Sandown last time, this horse earned a rating of 151 that day, clearly showing that the return to the intermediate 7f trip was ideal. That rating alone will see this horse very competitive, but a look in the EquiAnalytix breeding data suggests he could go on to far more. Being a son of Kingman, out of a mare called Handassa not only reached a mark of 104 when racing, but has produced a whole host of champions. MUDBIR is a close relation to Group 1 winner Nazeef, but also a half-brother to multiple winners, including both Mostahdaf and Mostabshir. A real standout pedigree that suggests this horse can keep improving for his masterful trainer.
16:20 British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (IRE Incentive Race) (Colts & Geldings)
Back into two-year-old company here for a 7f contest for colts and geldings.
Race Analysis
A great race up next and one in which the market feels it has gotten correct already, given the heavy support for ISAAC NEWTON. This horse has had just the one career start so far, a 2nd place at Curragh 14 days ago. That day he battled well over the 7f trip and will have certainly learned a lot from it. My concern? It’s the pedigree. Being by Camelot, this horse is bred to have stamina in abundance, as noted by the fact the team waited to run him over 7f on debut as a 2yo, and also how his best work was late on that day. Now he clearly has ability, and that may well see him through here, but Camelot progeny continue to appreciate a rise in trip, clearly seen by an average rating of just 69 over this inadequate trip. As I say, he clearly has talent, but that is not enough to justify such skinny odds.
As we continue to dive through the breeding data, mixed with looking at the raw figures from the little form on offer, it’s hard not to be drawn to LION OF ALBA. Representing connections that will be desperate for some success this week, this Hugo Palmer-trained 2yo made a solid enough start to his career when 5th on debut, in the process earning a very high rating of 133. When you then consider that it came after the horse sat in the stalls early, missed the break and was tailed off last, it’s ever more impressive. Since then, the 2nd and 3rd that day at Newbury have both gone on to win races, and the winner has been placed at Listed level, seriously supporting the case that the 133 in isolation is no fluke. When you then look at his pedigree, Too Darn Hot continues to be one of the best sires of 2yos around, and certainly supports the case that this horse’s odds are far too big.
And you will have to humour me for a moment here and consider what would be a huge surprise in the market if he was to win. You will fail to find a better pedigree all week, let alone in this race, than MY OLD MATE’s. This Gary and Josh Moore-trained horse is currently 100/1 at the time of writing… and that somewhat makes sense given connections are not known for their 2yo debutant winners. But even so, a scan of our breeding data shows that this son of Wootton Bassett has everything to suggest he could be very smart. Wootton Bassett, as we’ve noted all week, continued to rank at the very top of the sire rankings for 2yos. But even more impressive is the fact that this horse is out of Friendly, a classy mare who reached a mark of 102 at her peak. A pedigree to die for, and one which would not be out of place in the winner’s enclosure this week… can you imagine the scenes?!
Race 7: 16:55 Coral Golden Rewards Shaker Handicap
The final contest of not just today, but this year’s Glorious Goodwood meeting, is an extended 1m 1f handicap.
Race Analysis
We close the week looking for a final winner. On a week where the data has hit the crossbar far too often for my liking, it was a potential relief here to see such a fascinating unexposed horse near the top of the data. TREASURE TIME will of course be potentially looking to round off a big day for the William Haggas team, and consistent ratings of 121, 121 and 124 give the impression that this horse is certainly capable. But he he doesn’t quite have the same profile of the selection, GLADIUS, who looks fascinating. This 3yo son of Night Of Thunder has made a big impression from just three career starts, winning well on debut at Kempton, earning a rating of 110, before then finding the penalty, and bumping into the now 103-rated Arabian Force, too much of a difficult task at Salisbury. He subsequently earned an opening handicap mark of 87, which now looks incredibly lenient given he shot clear last time at Sandown, winning by 1 3/4 lengths in a good quality race. He has been hit with a rise of 7lb as a result, but his LTO rating of 132 and pedigree suggest this horse is nowhere near his ceiling just yet. Conditions will be right in his favour and he looks the likeliest one from the data to give us that all-important final winner!
š Selection Recap
Here are all of today’s bold selections across 7 races:
- Race 1 (13:20):Ā Candleford (4)
- Race 2 (13:55):Ā Sam Hawkens (13), Wonder Legend (1)
- Race 3 (14:30): Goodie Two Shoes (3), Alllonsy (1)
- Race 4 (15:05):Ā Elmonjed (5), Commanche Falls (9)
- Race 5 (15:45):Ā Mudbir (12)
- Race 6 (16:20):Ā Lion Of Alba (11), My Old Mate (12)
- Race 7 (16:55):Ā Gladius (12)
These selections represent horses highlighted in the analysis as having strong potential based on EquiAnalytix data models and pedigree analysis.
Conclusion
And that concludes Glorious Goodwood this year. We’ve witnessed top-class racing yet again and we hope our data-driven insights have helped you navigate each contest confidently.
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