Introduction
Welcome back to our Tote World Pool Guide where we dive into Day 1 of the Qatar Goodwood Festival, where five days of top-class racing unfold on the South Downs. From staying tests to juvenile sprints, Glorious Goodwood offers a rich mix of race types and deep Tote World Pool liquidity to put our data-driven models to the test.
At EquiAnalytix, we’ve spent over fifty years compiling form lines, pace biases, and breeding data into our proprietary Speed Ratings and machine-learning algorithms. By focusing on the Tote World Pool, where betting volume and prize pools are at their deepest, we consistently uncover value horses that the market overlooks, whether in Win markets, Exactas, Trifectas or multi-leg Exotic combinations.
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Race 1: 13:20 Goodwood Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap
This 10f contest at Goodwood features 18 runners vying for honours in the Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap, promising a fiercely competitive opener on Day 1 of the Festival.
Race Analysis
All I can say is what a start to the week, as this year’s Chesterfield Cup is set to be an absolute cracker. One benefit with how we present the data in the Dashboard is that with just a quick glance, you can get an overview of the quality of any given race, with a reminder that our “benchmark rating” is 100. Therefore, looking below will show you that this 18-strong field features ratings well beyond that level, with some getting close to 200! The one thing this does mean, is that it’s a wide open renewal, and one in which a case can be made for several.
Narrowing this field down is certainly a challenge, but the obvious starting place is with the William Haggas trained CASTLE COVE. A winner of two from his four career starts, this son of Camelot took a big step forward on his seasonal reappearance at Chester, going away at the finish in fine style. Today’s much more “lively” underfoot conditions will provide a different test, but this horse handled them well as a 3yo and Camelot progeny on average handle the ground very well. Of course what is most eye-catching is the figure he posted at Chester of 173, which on any given day is a serious level of form. With improvement to come from this unexposed type, a mark of 93 might be within his capabilities.
Given this being such an open contest, we must look a little closer at the data for those all-important Exotics markets via the Tote World Pool. BOLSTER represents the in-form Karl Burke team and will have his chance, while MASOUN looks to make it a hat-trick of victories for Joseph O’Brien. Both interest us from a data perspective, as does JOLLY JACK TAR for the Gosdens. But it’s hard to ignore the ratings posted by GREY CUBAN, and frankly I cannot believe how big a price this horse still is. Oisin Murphy takes the ride for a stable in red-hot form, operating at a 1m average rating well in excess of their usual 12m average, and straight off the back of a very successful Saturday! This horse however boasts the very best figures on offer, with his penultimate 2nd and last time out 1st generating ratings of 196 and 193 – these are staggering figures and must be greatly respected. Both recorded at Chester, like the other selection in the race, but this horse carried a welter burden of 10st 4lbs last time – some effort indeed. A large jump in the handicap will demand more here but the ratings clearly suggest this horse is progressing quickly, and at the odds is worth a chance.
Race 2: 13:55 Coral Vintage Stakes (Group 2)
Group 2 action follows with this 7-furlong contest for juveniles, featuring 10 promising runners.
Race Analysis
A serious renewal here of the Vintage Stakes and we must start with Eve Johnson-Houghton’s charge, ZAVATERI. Last seen winning the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket, this son of Without Parole was very impressive that day when recording a standout rating of 158. Of this entire field’s most recent run, that is the very best piece of form on offer, but the issue we have is that a 3lb penalty will require much more, plus as many reader’s will already know, it pays to lean on the EquiAnalytix Breeding Data in these races.
And a quick glance there will make it very apparent which horses we must focus on. There will be an element of deja vu here, as we must begin with another from the Hugo Palmer stable, this time LAUREATE CROWN. This horse made his debut 17 days ago at Ascot, where he kept on supremely well to win going-away from a strong field. But it wasn’t just the manner of that victory that caught the eye, but also his rating achieved of 155. Whilst of course not up to the level mentioned above, this was on racecourse debut and these sorts of figures can often be marked up. Then, when you cross-reference that with the breeding data, you see that whilst sire Victor Ludorum has only had a small sample of progeny hit the track in the UK, the ones that have, have achieved an average EquiAnalytix Speed Rating of 92, the highest on offer of all the pedigrees in this race. DORSET is of course the next best bred, where Wootton Bassett continues to dominate the juvenile scene this season, and being by the 92-rated Snowflake suggests this horse has plenty of class. And incidentally, the horse he beat last time out is a horse that our data holds in incredibly high regard. We would therefore not put anyone off playing both in the race, but from a current prices perspective the former looks far more attractive!
Race 3: 14:30 HKJC World Pool Lennox Stakes (Group 2)
Another Group 2 event over 7 furlongs, with 12 quality horses competing for this prestigious prize.
Race Analysis
Diving straight into the data will show you that this Lennox Stakes can ultimately be left to just a few live contenders. What is often the case in this pattern races is to be mindful of the official BHA handicap ratings, where in this instance it suggest they all have something to find with last year’s hero, AUDIENCE. Now this horse is something of an enigma, having a patchy race record where he either dazzles from a prominent position, or bombs out. It was the turn of the latter on his racecourse reappearance 59 days ago at Haydock, albeit he did elect to stay on in the closing stages. I am pretty confident in putting a line through that effort, and Premium members will see from this horse’s expanded ratings history that he boasts the very highest speed ratings on offer, a rating of 204 when winning here at the Festival 12 months ago. That day he cruised into contention off a good gallop, and was not for catching. And with 2/3 clear pace-setters in the field, my suspicion would be that it may set up exactly like that for this horse.
Elsewhere in the data it’s very easy to be drawn to fan-favourite KINROSS, and under most circumstances he would be a strong selection here. With a run under his belt, he is sure to go well, but perhaps may just want it a little lighter underfoot these days as he gets older. The allowance received by JONQUIL should allow that horse to be very competitive, and the current market expectations are supportive, but for outsider purposes I want to focus instead on WITNESS STAND for the Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole combination. Having left the Tom Clover stable earlier this year, this horse has slowly gotten himself back to form, with the focus being on his most recent 2nd at Chester 17 days ago. That was a clear bounce back, and his rating achieved of 201 is not only huge, but very nearly reached his career high of 207 when winning a Listed contest at Newbury by 3 lengths. If he is to take another step forward again for that, then his current odds of 20/1 could prove farcical, and would certainly boost those Exotics plays!
Race 4: 15:05 Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1)
The feature Group 1 stayers’ contest is up next over 2 miles (16 furlongs), with 8 elite endurance specialists heading to post.
Race Analysis
Our first Group 1 of the week and what a mouthwatering race we have, although you must forgive me for pointing out that it’s really missing that star quality with the retirement of Kyprios. That being said, it’s still a fascinating renewal and does feature several names that spent the last 2yrs chasing Kyprios’ shadow! Most notably SWEET WILLIAM who consistently runs a big race here at Goodwood and looks certain to be battling it out once again – but the data questions whether he will be good enough?
ILLINOIS has been popular in the market at the time of writing, for connections who always warrant absolute respect in any Group 1. This horse is actually yet to win at the highest level, having been 2nd in three! His form ratings are solid here, with increasing figures of 136, 148 and 174 on his last three racecourse visits. That’s certainly good enough to be competitive in this race, the off-putting factor however is his price. At 11/10 at the time of writing he really doesn’t appeal for pure Win terms, and whilst I encourage to cover in Exotics combinations, there is an outsider that could take a big step forward here. That horse is MILITARY ACADEMY, who at the prices looks to have very little chance. But the beauty of the data is that it is price-agnostic, and when you consider on his last three runs he has achieved ratings of over 180 on two occasions, all things point towards a highly improving horse. And of course he will need to improve, as this 4yo is facing the step up to 2m for the first time in his career, but his pedigree by Fastnet Rock out of a Galileo gives us every hope that he should relish it. A last time out 2nd to course-specialist Hamish is nothing to be concerned about, and at the prices he ranks as a potential improver to be wary of!
Race 5: 15:45 Coral Golden Rewards Shaker Handicap
A competitive 5-furlong handicap sprint with a maximum field of 22 runners charging downhill.
Race Analysis
The sprint trip at Goodwood is always a sight to be hold, with the immediate downhill part of the track allowing these horses to reach speeds in excess of 42mph.. some thrill for the pilot onboard! Speed is going to be necessary here, but as is stamina given just how much early pace there seems to be. Horses such as DEMOCRACY DILEMMA, TWILIGHT JET & REGAL ENVOY all like to get on with things early, and that’s going to lead to several interesting contenders lurking in behind the pace.
From a data perspective, REDORANGE has to go close here for a team in top form. Ridden by Rossa Ryan, this 3yo son of Mehmas has looked to be piecing it altogether as a sprinter of late, with his last time out rating of 157 up there with the best of this field. Today’s test will require more but he can be given a box-seat ride here in behind the pace and pounce late.
But of course I could not move on without mentioning another that the data has identified as a fascinating outsider. Representing the James Evans team, DREAM COMPOSER looks to have several things right in his favour on the day, and is sat at huge odds. A last time out 2nd at Pontefract, a track he performs so well at, was a clear positive step in the right direction, and earned him in the process a rating of 170, the highest on offer in this field. This horse is often seen getting up late in his previous wins, and did just that in the sprint at Epsom last year that he won. Off 93, he remains on a winning mark and the assistance of 5lb claimer Archie Young further enhances his chances. Don’t underestimate this horse who has a plum draw in 7 and can make his presence known late on!
Race 6: 16:20 British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes
A 6-furlong maiden for colts and geldings with 17 unexposed horses to analyse.
Race Analysis
This race offers a real conundrum to punters, as with an entire field of unexposed horses, those that have run before have achieved very little, and the remainder of the field have never been sighted on a racecourse before. At the time of writing, the market has focused in on the two Wathnan Racing representatives, NAVAL LIGHT and HIGH APPROVAL. The former will need to bounce back from a more disappointing effort at Ascot last time, and the latter will equally need to better his last time out rating of 110. That is the issue with this race, from a form data perspective, nothing really stands out.
But that is often where our Breeding Data can really come to the fore, and in this situation, all roads point to VINTAGE HEAT running a very big race on debut. Owned by connections who seem to have so much success at this prestigious meeting, this son of Too Darn Hot is bred to be an above-average two year old. Incidentally, Too Darn Hot continues to produce two-year-olds of the very highest calibre, averaging a rating of 87 across all his runners, by far the highest in this field. Then when you consider the dam Lady Perignon who herself climbed to a mark of 82 and has herself already produced a winner, it suggests the selection may well be underestimated in this current market.
Race 7: 16:55 Ridgeview Fillies’ Handicap
Fillies take centre stage in this 1-mile handicap with 13 runners.
Race Analysis
A wide open renewal here in which a case can be made for several. DASH OF AZURE is certain to be popular on the day, where a 5th place finish in last month’s Sandringham earned her a rating of 115. That however has been bettered by several on the day, and perhaps it’s therefore best to take her on. The issue is who with. PROTEST looks to be well-placed having finished 4th in a Listed contest last time, a rating of 128 for that effort is solid and followed an even more impressive figure of 141. That form leaves her as the one to beat, and she therefore rightly heads the TPR figures, where our Total Performance Rating amalgamates all the data available on the Dashboard into one single predictive rating. She can stamp her authority in a race such as this and be the example of a “pattern horse in a handicap”.
But we equally cannot move on without mentioning a lively outsider that from a data perspective, could be anything. Stablemate RUMBA NUMBA is making her handicap debut off a mark of 84 on the day, a mark which could see her very well-handicapped. This all-weather winner in May, boasts form figures of 8 (ouch!), 122 and 138. The last two clearly show a progressive profile, and an ever-important feature of the data for handicap purposes is seeing that upward trajectory in the ratings, especially as these horses begin to climb the weights. Whilst a glance at the horse’s she finished close to in novice company won’t set the world alight, her pedigree however does. This horse’s breeding data is outstanding, being another by Too Darn Hot but also out of a mare called Astonishing who herself rose to a mark of 109 at her peak. Of course, I am not suggesting that this filly is set to reach those heights, but she is regally bred and when compared to a mark of just 84, something just doesn’t add up!
Race 8: 17:30 World Pool Bet With The Tote EBF Fillies’ Handicap
The finale is a 6-furlong handicap for fillies, featuring 14 runners closing Day 1 at Glorious Goodwood.
Race Analysis
As we look to finish the day on a high in the lucky last, it’s clear from the data table below that we can focus in on just a handful of lively contenders, which according to the data revolve around the top three according to the TPR column. We will start at the top with CINQUE VERDE for the Tony Carroll team, a horse who has been a model of consistency in three consecutive 2nd place finishes this season. On her penultimate start, she bumped into a very smart type at this track over the shorter 5f distance, before last time running respectably at Chester. But it’s her ratings of 144, 94 and most recently 163 that are hard to ignore when analysing the field, and whilst it’s been a short while since she got her head in front, she is certain to run a big race at equally big odds for those Exotics selections.
That then leaves us with the horse that the market has latched onto early, the Saeed bin Suroor trained DUBAI TREASURE. This strong travelling daughter of Exceed And Excel is stepping back in trip after a consecutive runs over the 7f trip, but that should hold no concerns given the pace she has shown throuhgout those races. But it’s her figures that just scream that this filly is better than a mark of 95, where ratings of 150, 172 and 133 suggest she could move on to Pattern class. She will of course need to take a step forward from York last time but drawn in 2, dropped back to 6f there is every chance she is up to replicating her penultimate standout rating of 172, and if doing so, that would be more than enough to put this race to bed.
🎲 Tote Placepot – Goodwood July 29 (First 6 Races)
- Leg 1 (13:20): Grey Cuban (3), Castle Cove (16)
- Leg 2 (13:55): Laureate Crown (8), Dorset (4)
- Leg 3 (14:30): Audience (2), Witness Stand (9)
- Leg 4 (15:05): Military Academy (4)
- Leg 5 (15:45): Redorange (5), Dream Composer (12)
- Leg 6 (16:20): Vintage Heat (14)
📋 Selection Recap
Here are all of today’s bold selections across 8 races:
- Race 1 (13:20) Grey Cuban (3), Castle Cove (16)
- Race 2 (13:55) Laureate Crown (8), Dorset (4)
- Race 3 (14:30) Audience (2), Witness Stand (9)
- Race 4 (15:05) Military Academy (4)
- Race 5 (15:45) Redorange (5), Dream Composer (12)
- Race 6 (16:20) Vintage Heat (14)
- Race 7 (16:55) Protest (4), Rumba Numba (10)
- Race 8 (17:30) Dubai Treasure (1), Cinque Verde (5)
These selections represent horses highlighted in the analysis as having strong potential based on EquiAnalytix data models and pedigree analysis.
Conclusion
And just like that, Day 1 of Glorious Goodwood concludes. We’ve witnessed top-class racing from the fiercely competitive Chesterfield Cup Handicap to the elite staying test of the Goodwood Cup. We hope our data-driven insights, standout selections, and Placepot strategy helped you navigate each contest confidently. Whether backing our Win selections, exploring Exotics markets, or playing the Placepot, you’ve seen how EquiAnalytix sharpens your edge in the Tote World Pool.
The excitement continues tomorrow! Every Goodwood race and beyond is covered in real-time on the EquiAnalytix Dashboard. If today’s analysis helped you spot winners, imagine having these insights for every meeting, every day.