Introduction
A very good morning to you all, and welcome back to Day 4 of the Qatar Goodwood Festival. And whilst today might not be a World Pool day, we were keen to not end the week on the lows of yesterday’s performance, and instead will continue to surge on through two brilliant cards both today, and on Saturday!
This week already we have spoken a lot about exactly how you can best utilise the EquiAnalytix data to dive deeper than ever before into a race, and I do hope that we’ve picked out some interesting angles for many of you to follow. As a reminder, at EquiAnalytix, we’ve spent over fifty years compiling form lines, pace biases, and breeding data into our proprietary Speed Ratings and machine-learning algorithms. All of this data, packaged into a single easy-to-use Dashboard is the outcome of years of preparation and data-collecting. It has been brilliant to hear from so many new people interested in the platform, and please do continue to keep sending in your questions. As we have been rightly reminded this week, it is never an exact science. The highs of 25/1 winners on the Tuesday can be brought right back down to reality with a string of placed efforts over days 2 and 3, but it’s a marathon, not a sprint, and consistency when using our data is the key!
So how about we get onto Day 4?!
Race 1: 13:20 Coral Goodwood Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
An opening marathon over the extended 2m 4f trip, where we have been left with a competitive field of 12 going to post.
Race Analysis
I cannot stress enough how much of a unique test this is for the thoroughbred, and no matter how much pedigree analysis you conduct, nothing can prepare them for this stamina-sapping race. When you add in the fact that the course had to absorb a small storm yesterday, conditions are going to be testing, with that classic “tacky” ground on offer throughout much of the day. So with that, we need to identify those horses that not only stand out from the data, but equally have the resolve to handle such conditions.
As I write, there is a market move forming for our first selection here AGGAGIO. Representing the Gary and Josh Moore team, young Ashley Lewis will take the ride on this consistent 7yo. With 10 career wins to his name, this horse certainly knows where the winning line is, and it’s hard not to be impressed by his last time out performance here at Goodwood, winning over the 2m trip under soft conditions, in the process earning a standout rating of 122. Now, there are not that many staying races at Goodwood and hence that figure really can be enhanced give it’s often compared to the 2m races ran at this very festival. He ran in this race in 2023, finishing a remote 6th, but that day was 4lbs higher in the handicap which will certainly help his chances today. As will the 7lb claim of jockey Ashley Lewis who is very much quietly making a name for himself. This horse looks solid, and we have to take a chance despite shortening odds.
Of the rest, it does become very difficult to form a strong view on many, given most of these stayers have had very patchy recent form. KYLE OF LOCHALSH is regularly seen in these types of races, and despite heading the predictive Total Performance Rating figures, he looks vulnerable on recent form, as does VINO VICTRIX who is another returning to this race. Instead, I would like to identify one at big odds who if he was to win, would be one of the best weight-carrying performances we’d have seen all season. TASHKHAN, representing the Brian Ellison team, has not been seen on the track for 306 days, back when he finished a disappointing 15th at the Curragh. Obviously coming back from injury is difficult, but the handicapper has relented a little and dropped him to a mark of 106, just 1lb higher than his most recent win which was over the marathon trip at Chester. And incidentally, you only have to rewind to his penultimate run, also at Chester, to see that huge rating of 177. This horse clearly has plenty of ability, and if he is fit for this trip, he is your classy animal in a handicap.
Race 2: 13:55 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3)
Group 3 action next for the Thoroughbred Stakes, ran over the 1m trip.
Race Analysis
In all honesty, with the late scratching of OPERA BALLO, this has left this race looking a little uncompetitive. Whilst there is a some sense of closeness amongst the recent figures of these horses, it’s very difficult to get away from the upward trajectory of the ratings posted by COSMIC YEAR. With the returning Colin Keane in the saddle, this Harry Charlton-trained horse will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing performance in France. But prior to that, had looked electric. Placed second in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, this son of Kingman should in theory have no problem putting away a field such as this today, providing the underfoot isn’t riding too tacky – and that would be warning to everyone looking to have a bet throughout the day. His dual figures of 155 for his last two recorded efforts bring in outstanding form, and clearly on official handicap ratings everything else has plenty to find. Whilst it is not often that simple, in this situation there is nothing in the data to suggest taking this horse on.
Race 3: 14:30 Coral Golden Mile (Heritage Handicap)
A very deep-looking handicap up next over the 1m trip, where 20 go to post.
Race Analysis
Given our involvement in the race-planning of horses associated with the Legacy Racing Club, you begin to look at the motives of trainers and owners slightly differently, and I must say that the quick decision to get SKUKUZA entered here before the full 10lb rise comes in the handicap, could be a stroke of genius. Officially, this horse is 8lb ahead of the handicap which in a race of this nature could be the ultimate difference. But in reality we are reminded this is not an exact science, and you must still consider that this horse will need carry a mammoth weight of 10st 2lb to victory, certainly not an easy task. But on all data we have presented below, we firmly believe he might well do it. He has been a horse that has been great for regular readers of this blog, having been a World Pool selection for both of his recent Curragh successes. But when you consider that he earned ratings of 151 and 182 for those victories, it really cements the view that this is your “group horse in a handicap”.
But this is no easy task, and we will combine the first selection with what the data believes is a horse that is being wrongly penalised in the current market. Horses such as GREEK ORDER, FIFTH COLUMN, and frankly any of the David O’Meara representatives can go very close here, but nearing the bottom of the table is a horse we are fascinated by, GREAT CHIEFTAIN. Representing the Oliver Cole team, with an eye-catching jockey booking of Colin Keane, this horse has been a revelation over the last 18 months, rising from a mark of 69 when winning at Newbury 12 months, to now competing today off 93. While that put many off, it’s been supported by some really impressive ratings, most notably a clear upward trajectory of 80, 1254 and 140. That latter effort at Newmarket really stands up against the best in this field, and when you see he is in receipt of 12lb from the top-weight, he may well outrun som very big current odds.
Race 4: 15:05 King George Qatar Stakes (Group 2)
The feature sprint stakes of the week, the King George Qatar Stakes, a Group 2 contest over the minimum 5f trip.
Race Analysis
And this field is everything you would want from a top-quality sprint stakes. It features the two that battled it out last year in ASFOORA and BIG MOJO. That day it was the latter that was successful, but you’d have to say that both are in nowhere near the same form leading up to this year’s renewal and that raises a big question. I think for this race however, the big question mark for me is the ground. When you look at horse’s such as BIG MOJO, ASFOORA, KHAADEM, & TIME FOR SANDALS, all have posted their best career efforts on good-to-firm ground, and at the time of writing this, we are about as far away from that ground as we can be. Now, I am also a great believer that class really comes to the fore when you’re looking at races at the top-level, but it equally would not surprise me today if this race caused another big shock.
But we must also note that when you click through to each horse, something our Dashboard members can do with ease, you equally see that many of these will have never faced this conditions, again another unknown. So we will stick with what we know here, the figures. And with CELANDINE a late non-runner, we need to be seriously interested in the Irish contender, SHES QUALITY. This 4yo filly has been consistently performing at a very high level all season, and a glance at her recent 5 ratings show: 158, 151, 145, 135, 155. These are outstanding, and show a real consistency in performance for this horse. Now she will certainly need to take a step forward here against much better opposition, but she’s a bundle of speed and has shown that with some relative ease underfoot, and hence might just be able to handle these conditions better than several better-fancied opposition.
Race 5: 15:45 Regent Seven Seas Cruises Bentinck Conditions Stakes
A Conditions Stake race up next, with a strong field of 9 runners.
Race Analysis
A real open renewal here and one that has a really mixed look to it from the data, and hence I will tackle this from two angles. The first is the quality angle, and the obvious horse there is LIBERTY LANE. Trained by Karl Burke, this 5yo will of course need to bounce back from a poor effort at last month’s Royal meeting, but he is clearly capable of doing just that given prior he was seen winning well at this track and recording a rating of 166. That 166 in top company is a standout in this field, and supports the case this horse is the class act in today’s field.
But incidentally, we cannot go without mentioning the figures behind a lively outsider here in the form of JEFF KOONS. Standing as one of the outsiders in this race, we have seen plenty of surprises so far this week and this could well be another. What’s most striking about this horse’s profile is his upward trajectory of recent ratings: 126, 140 and 185, where that latter performance is a huge figure. Now, the form at that 4th place finish at Sandown has to be really tested properly, and so there is a question mark there. But in isolation it’s very difficult to get away from and the same can be said for this horse’s pedigree, being by Frankel out of a Dubawi mare. There is every chance the market has this one wrong and this horse can cause a stir late on!
Race 6: 16:20 Hawes & Curtis Nursery Handicap
A nursery handicap over 6 furlongs featuring 12 juvenile runners.
Race Analysis
As we write, it’s important to note that the exciting Godolphin entrant, RISING POWER, has been declared a non-runner, certainly diluting the quality of this field of juveniles. But it has left this completely wide-open. On the raw figures, and breeding data available to us, it’s very difficult to split two potentially well-handicapped horses here. The first is TRY STORM CAT, a horse boasting the highest last time out figure of 136, which followed a monster effort of 165. These figures alone bring this horse right into focus, especially off an opening mark of 81 for a team that are still in decent form. Last time this horse was seen dominating a decent field at Pontefract, and while he may not get it all his own way this time, he is very tough and already showcased a lot of talent in just three runs.
From a pure ratings perspective, the next selection will certainly raise a few eyebrows. BLUE ORBIT, representing the Newland & Insole team, the connections behind our big-priced winner on Day 1, have a really good chance here with this son of Blue Point. Blue Point as a sire continues to impress on our data, with his progeny boasting an average rating of 85 across all 2yo runners this season, a real standout when you compare to the breeding of the rest of this field. An opening mark of 82 doesn’t look too harsh for this course winner, and despite being well-beaten in Listed company last time, this will rank as a fair bit easier!
Race 7: 16:55 Coral Pipped At The Post Winners Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
We close with a handicap over the extended 1m 3f trip for horses rated 0-90.
Race Analysis
We look to conclude Day 4 on a high here by finding the winner of this fascinating handicap. A race which will see several of these horses step up in distance, it’s a field of unexposed horses where many boast big chances. We will start with MDAWI who readers this week will remember finishing a running-on second on Wednesday, a race where he travelled superbly well and arguably would’ve finished a fair bit closer to the eventual winner if finding a smoother passage. He has to be high up many’s list if running only 48hrs later, but this might just rank as a tough follow up contest, and a rating on Wednesday of just 113 wouldn’t fill us with supreme confidence.
MUNSIF is your current market leader and it’s fairly easy to understand why. A record of two wins and once third from 3 starts is superb, as are ratings for that of 122, 134 and 112. This gelded son of Sea The Stars should certainly appreciate this step up in trip and it’s just difficult to see him finishing outside of the frame. A comment that I believe to be similar for the Ralph Beckett trained PUSH THE LIMIT. Now it’s difficult to take two horses both fairly high up in the market, but from a data perspective it’s so difficult to split them! This horse may have the superior recent ratings, recording 154, 104 and 133, but doesn’t quite have the pedigree to match MUNSIF. But what I would say is that this horse certainly looks like he needs the extra distance, and right now his yard is in terrific form. At the odds they are both worth playing in this open handicap finale.
📋 Selection Recap
Here are all of today’s bold selections across 7 races:
- Race 1 (13:20): Aggagio (8), Tashkhan (1)
- Race 2 (13:55): Cosmic Year (1)
- Race 3 (14:30): Skukuza (1), Great Chieftain (16)
- Race 4 (15:05): She’s Quality (12)
- Race 5 (15:45): Liberty Lane (1), Jeff Koons (9)
- Race 6 (16:20): Try Storm Cat (7), Blue Orbit (6)
- Race 7 (16:55): Push The Limit (1), Munsif (3)
These selections represent horses highlighted in the analysis as having strong potential based on EquiAnalytix data models and pedigree analysis.
Conclusion
And that concludes Day 4 of Glorious Goodwood. We’ve witnessed top-class racing yet again and we hope our data-driven insights have helped you navigate each contest confidently.
Every Goodwood race and beyond is covered in real-time on the EquiAnalytix Dashboard. If today’s analysis helped you spot winners, imagine having these insights for every meeting, every day.
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