Introduction
Welcome to QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot — the season’s data-rich finale where the best of 2025 square off across seven elite contests. From the stamina test of the Long Distance Cup to the white-hot Sprint, the class-laden Fillies & Mares and mile crown in the QEII, all roads lead to the showpiece Champion Stakes before the cavalry charge of the Balmoral. We’ve parsed every runner in your card above straight from the EquiAnalytix data, utilising one of the richest horse racing databases in the UK to provide leading insights for the most competitive racing.
At EquiAnalytix, our approach is simple: let the numbers do the talking. We fuse long-form performance lines, pace and draw dynamics, breeding insights and our proprietary Speed Ratings to identify value where the market blinks — especially in the Tote World Pool, where liquidity can reward sharp, contrarian angles. Expect clear, actionable views and transparent runner lists for each race.
Race 1: 12:55 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 1)
2m — 3yo+ — Group 1 — 5 runners
Race Analysis
Champions Day 2025 gets underway with the Champions Long Distance Cup, a Group 1 contest over the marathon 2m trip for the UK and Ireland’s elite stayers. The disappointment this year is that it only sees a very modest field of five go to post, perhaps highlighting the lack of depth in this year’s staying division. I think a lot has been said already on that latter point, but frankly a horse such as TRAWLERMAN should not have his success undermined, given he has taken all before him this season. Three consecutive victories, landing both the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot and Lonsdale Cup at York on his latter two starts, very much cements this horse as the one they all have to beat. It’s therefore no real surprise to see him head our forward-looking Total Performance Ratings, where we utilise machine learning techniques to take a broad view of our entire dataset for a given horse. Recent EquiAnalytix Speed Ratings of 192 and 180 for those two wins clearly set a very high level of form, and it will be a huge shock to see him beaten. The issue? Well that’s his current market price. Odds of 1.5 at the time of writing are very skinny, and while I wouldn’t put anyone off rolling him up for all those deep Exotics markets on the day, the data would like to suggest another whose odds are becoming more interesting by the minute.
That horse is STAY TRUE for the Aidan O’Brien and Christophe Soumillon partnership, a pair who will be looking for a strong start to the afternoon. They team up here with a three-year-old son of Galileo, a horse who was last seen finishing 3rd in the St Leger. Now that race on the eye looked a farce of a pace, and hence it was to my surprise to see that this horse still posted a clear career best figure of 206 for the effort. He was well-beaten, but by a horse that looks set to serve it up to all of them next year in the staying division, and so 3rd place was certainly no disgrace. This horse’s pedigree suggests a further step up to 2m should be well within him, and while there are question marks about whether he has this step up in grade in him, especially at just the age of 3, there is clear value in his odds based on the data presented to us below.
Race 2: 13:30 Qipco British Champions Day Two-Year-Old Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)
6f — 2yo — 13 runners
Race Analysis
A new feature of Ascot’s showcase card and I personally think it’s a great addition, giving the two-year-olds another late-season opportunity before they are kept away for their three-year-old campaigns. A glance below at the data will show you just how open this contest really is, as connections all look to take advantage of this valuable contest. However, it does remain very difficult to get away from the top TPR horse, WORDS OF TRUTH, who I am amazed to see so weak in the market at the time of writing. This horse has taken a huge step forward from his 8th place finish on debut at Newbury back in May, having gone on to win three on the bounce, culminating in a Group 2 victory in the Mill Reef Stakes last time. What’s equally impressive are the figures this horse has posted, where ratings of 129, 114 and 137 all suggest a colt of the highest ability, and a horse who should take plenty of stopping here, leaving key rivals such as DIVISION and MISSION CENTRAL with plenty to find.
But there is a lively outsider that we have to discuss here, especially as there has been sustained market support since the release of the data. GENTLE GEORGE represents the Mick Appleby team, a team who will be looking for Group 1 success later on the card, but they look to have a nice colt on their hands here. This horse has won twice from three starts, with the latter coming 22 days ago at Haydock. While that will not be a piece of form many will home in on, the rating he achieved that day of 162 is certainly worth consideration, not least because he did so while carrying a winner’s penalty from Sandown. Now of course on official ratings this horse has plenty to find, being 22lbs inferior to the above selection, but with these two-year-olds any amount of improvement may come, and the early market support suggests his rating of 162 may well be no fluke!
Race 3: 14:05 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)
6f — 3yo+ — Group 1 — 19 runners
Race Analysis
The Champion Sprint Stakes is upon us here and is arguably one of the most competitive races of the afternoon. A strong field of 19 going to post in a race where the data predicts a blanket finish! It is very rare to see so many contenders with EquiAnalytix Speed Ratings in the 200-range, but this race totals six! A staggering number and does mean the market likely has this one right as being a wide-open race. The Wathnan Racing team hold several of the key contenders here with LAZZAT, FLORA OF BERMUDA and KIND OF BLUE all boasting outstanding chances, and each having a respective last-time-out rating of 197, 204 and 208… an outstanding level of form giving each the utmost respect. But you will see here that the data prefers the latter, a horse who will be looking to make it consecutive victories in this race, having been a very good winner last year. He had admittedly found life difficult after that success, but his last two efforts have been far more like himself and it’s left the impression that this horse is coming to the boil at the perfect time. Stripping back all the data, this horse boasts the highest rating in his last three runs of 217, a rating that would clearly see him go close to winning this, and the market has begun to agree. Ridden by Daniel Muscutt, this horse looks surely to be there at the finish at very good odds.
But that figure we mentioned of 217 is very closely followed by a horse who bounced back to form last time out, BIG MOJO. As we noted earlier, trainer Mick Appleby will be looking for more Group 1 success and this horse could give him exactly that. Having equally found life tough of late, the horse made a big step up in form at Haydock last time where he battled gamely all the way to the line in a very hot contest, earning that figure of 215. That alone has to see him go close here in this race, and with his odds hovering around the same level as KIND OF BLUE, it may be appropriate to look at these two horses within the deeper Exotics markets on the day!
Race 4: 14:45 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1)
1m4f — 3yo+ fillies/mares — Group 1 — 10 runners
Race Analysis
This year’s Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes has a similar sense of deja vu about, given last year’s heroine KALPANA will equally be looking for back-to-back Champions Day success. But despite sitting very high on the TPR figures this year, there are others who look to be arriving in better form, and you’d have to think her 7th place finish in the Arc will have left some sort of a mark on her. BEDTIME STORY is the filly that currently heads the TPR figures but despite oozing class last year at Royal Ascot, she looks to have become a difficult filly to plot and dare I say it, is beginning to look a little “trip-less”. Of course she has the assistance of the master Aidan O’Brien, but it would be a surprise to see her land this and would perhaps require others to falter.
Instead, it becomes very difficult to ignore Paddy Twomey’s three-year-old filly ONE LOOK. By Gleneagles, out of a Holy Salt mare, this filly is not obviously bred for this classic trip, but her last time out run at Longchamp, and her previous runs at the Curragh are indicative of a filly who should allow herself to stay these extra two furlongs. But aside from that, her figures alone have to bring her into the mix, where her previous two visits to the Curragh recorded ratings of 207 and 209, by far the most eye-catching level of consistent form in this field. And when you then line that up against the current market, something looks wrong. Hence she has to be taken at a price to run a big race for connections who will be desperate for a winner on the day.
Race 5: 15:25 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1)
1m — 3yo+ — Group 1 — 16 runners
Race Analysis
The QEII Stakes is up for Race 5, and here the data truly believes it’s identified one of the strongest selections of the day. FALLEN ANGELheads the TPR figures and for a very good reason, as this horse has earned two monstrous ratings of 224 for two Group 1 victories, albeit against her own sex. But do not discount those figures in isolation, as back against the males she still receives her fillies allowance, and could not be arriving in any better form for connections. Her beating of a strong field in the Sun Chariot Stakes earlier in the month is a very good form line to look at, and it’s therefore a surprise to see her currently hovering at such attractive odds.
Of course the reason she does is that she faces opposition such as FIELD OF GOLD, who will be looking to bounce back from disappointment in the Sussex Stakes earlier in the year, and Rosallion who many believe to have been one of the unluckiest horses this season! On the former, it would not be a surprise to see team Gosden have this horse back firing on all cylinders, and if he was to reach those previous highs, of course he will be very tough to beat. But his price largely reflects that. As for Rosallion, I am a firm believer, and as are the ratings, that horses can often find the trouble themselves in running. Yes it can be argued that this horse should have won at Glorious Goodwood, the excuses elsewhere begin to wear very thin, and in this field he faces his sternest test to date. Hence we will always side with the data and that suggests the filly may be up to it. Don’t rule out MARVELMAN here who despite huge odds in the market, posted an outstanding figure of 225 last time out and has a very upwardly progressive set of ratings. This is a classic Andrew Balding improver and I would hasten to say this horse has not reached his ceiling yet!
Race 6: 16:05 Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1)
1m2f — 3yo+ — Group 1 — 11 runners
Race Analysis
We of course now arrive at the feature of the day’s action, the 2025 Qipco Champions Stakes. A truly brilliant race that has seen in the past some of the very best horses land the spoils – and I would say that this year’s renewal is one of the best for some time! To just scan your eyes down to the table below and see a top-four horses according to the TPR figures of OMBUDSMAN, ECONOMICS, DELACROIX and CALANDAGAN, just shows you what a mouth-watering renewal this really is. And frankly speaking, from a data perspective alone it’s very difficult to split them. Most will be talking about the latest match up between OMBUDSMAN and DELACROIX, and while we have sided with the latter, there are so many more dangers in this field that is packed with class. The reason we have sided with the Aidan O’Brien trained three-year-old is based on his electric victory in the Irish Champion Stakes last time out, a day where he posted a clear career best figure of 216. For those who can go back and watch the drone footage from that race, it’s a real treat. Watching jockey Christophe Soumillon at his very best, weaving through the field on the home bend at Leopardstown and using this horse’s electric turn of foot, reminiscent of his sire Dubawi. Coolmore have longed for success with that sire and hence this horse means an awful lot more to the group than meets the eye, and victory here would really cement him as a potential superstar, whether that be on or off the track.
Race 7: 16:40 Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco)
1m — 3yo+ — 20 runners
Race Analysis
And Champions Day comes to a close with the Balmoral Handicap, a devilishly competitive curtain-closer, featuring a big field of 20 runners. In these circumstances we would begin to spend time going through each of these horses at a granular level of detail, but it is very apparent from the table below that the data is willing to go out on its sword with a firm selection in this handicap, CROWN OF OAKS. It is as I say very rare to see such a standout set of figures behind a horse in such a deep race such as this, but this horse’s improving recent ratings of 121, 136 and 210 demand absolute respect, with that latter figure ranking by far the best piece of form on offer. Now of course this horse has risen dramatically in the weights as a result of successes at Ayr in July, and here at Ascot in September – before then being beaten into third at the Curragh. But I do feel that latter effort suggested a return to a strongly run mile could continue this horse’s progression, and a glance at this horse’s pedigree, being by top sire Wootton Bassett, out of a 92-rated Royal Applause mare called Forest Crown, certainly suggests we are looking at your potential “group horse in a handicap!” And wouldn’t it be a nice way to round off a terrific flat season from the EquiAnalytix data?!
🎲 Tote Placepot – Ascot (QIPCO British Champions Day) — First 6 Races
- Leg 1 (12:55 – Long Distance Cup): Stay True (5)
- Leg 2 (13:30 – Two-Year-Old Conditions): Words Of Truth (12), Gentle George (4)
- Leg 3 (14:05 – Sprint Stakes): Kind Of Blue (5), Big Mojo (14)
- Leg 4 (14:45 – Fillies & Mares Stakes): One Look (5)
- Leg 5 (15:25 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes): Fallen Angel (10), Marvelman (12)
- Leg 6 (16:05 – Champion Stakes): Delacroix (9)
📋 Selection Recap — QIPCO British Champions Day (Ascot)
- Race 1 (Ascot 12:55 – Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup): Stay True (5)
- Race 2 (Ascot 13:30 – Qipco British Champions Day Two-Year-Old Conditions Stakes): Words Of Truth (12); saver: Gentle George (4)
- Race 3 (Ascot 14:05 – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes): Kind Of Blue (5); alt: Big Mojo (14)
- Race 4 (Ascot 14:45 – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes): One Look (5)
- Race 5 (Ascot 15:25 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes): Fallen Angel (10); alt: Marvelman (12)
- Race 6 (Ascot 16:05 – Qipco Champion Stakes): Delacroix (9)
- Race 7 (Ascot 16:40 – Balmoral Handicap): Crown Of Oaks (13)
Conclusion
QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot gave us exactly the kind of card where patience, clarity, and trust in the numbers pay. We’ve framed each race with EquiAnalytix TPRs to anchor the likely shape, then layered in raw Speed Ratings, trainer–jockey momentum, and pedigrees to separate conviction plays from supporting angles. The result is a focused set of selections with clean, data-led narratives — no noise, just substance.
Discipline matters most now. If the pace picture or underfoot conditions shift close to the off, adjust staking — but stay anchored to profiles that travel, sustain, and finish, the attributes Ascot repeatedly rewards on this day. Use the shortlisted dangers to structure place and exotic permutations through the Tote World Pool, and keep your Win positions for the runners with the clearest all-round case.
Enjoy the racing, back your judgement, and let the data do the heavy lifting. Good luck.
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