Introduction
Welcome to our Betfair Chase Day preview from Haydock Park — a meeting that traditionally marks the moment the National Hunt season begins to shift through the gears. Deep autumn ground, long relentless straights, and a track that exposes any weakness combine to create one of the fairest yet most demanding tests in British racing. With the going officially good to soft, soft in places after steady overnight rain, conditions are set to play a major role across this high-quality card.
Before diving into today’s action, we have to look back at last weekend’s exploits at Cheltenham, where the EquiAnalytix data produced one of its most memorable afternoons to date. In the staying handicap chase, the numbers flagged Hung Jury as a major player despite being dismissed by many — and he delivered in style, powering home to win at a massive £31.60 on the Tote. If that wasn’t enough, the feature race of the afternoon, the Paddy Power Gold Cup, went the way of our main data selection Panic Attack, rewarding followers at £6.00. Two big results, both highlighted clearly by the forward-looking metrics — a perfect reminder of why trusting the figures pays.
Even better, for Haydock the Tote’s Money Back 2nd offer returns, giving bettors added protection in selected races. On a day where tight margins and testing ground can produce unpredictable finishes, that safety net is extremely valuable — and it aligns perfectly with a data-led approach, letting you take smart, aggressive positions with reduced downside.
Dashboard Upgrade
This weekend also arrives at a perfect moment for Dashboard subscribers, with a major wave of updates now live. The new Strategy Builder lets you create, test and refine angles with unprecedented flexibility; Market Mover Trackinghighlights where the smart money is landing in real time; and a stack of interface and performance improvements makes navigating every race significantly smoother. It’s our biggest upgrade yet — and it’s already helping users uncover value that the market continues to miss.
So, with the staying stars of the season lining up and the data sharper than ever, let’s dive into the 2025 Betfair Chase card and identify where the edge lies this afternoon.
Race 1: 12:08 Betfair Supports Safer Gambling Week Newton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race)
A Grade 2 novice hurdle over the 1m7f144y trip at Haydock, giving promising hurdlers an early-season test on ground officially described as good to soft, soft in places.
Race Analysis
We get underway here with a good looking Grade 2 novices hurdle, where despite a small field of 6, there looks to be some very interesting types. Dan and Harry Skelton look set for a potentially big day here with several well-fancied horses taking part, and it is interesting to see their horse DOUBLE MEASURE sit at the top of our forward-looking Total Performance Ratings (TPR), often the very best indicator to start with. This horse ran well at Chepstow on reappearance, finishing a respectable 2nd with the impression that the horse would improve for the outing, but the figures suggest he will need to. That’s because it is very hard to get away from the performances that STICKTOTHEPLAN has posted for that powerful combination of Bowen and Murphy. This son of Great Pretender has won three of his last four outings, albeit three of those runs were under the care of former trainer Cormac Farrell. The horse made a big impression on stable debut last time when winning at Chepstow, but it’s his recent form figures that rank him as the horse to beat. EquiAnalytix Speed Ratings of 168, 143 and 130 are standout performances by this horse when you compare to the field, and he equally has strong pedigree credentials on the sire side when you looking the Breeding Data. All things considered he looks to have an outstanding opportunity, and on all the data presented here can beat MASKED MAN who is your current market leader.
Race 2: 12:40 Bet At Your Best With Betfair Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
A Class 3 handicap chase over the 2m67y trip at Haydock for chasers rated 0–130, where jumping and tactical speed will both be tested on ground officially described as good to soft, soft in places.
Race Analysis
For race 2 we do have a slight dilemma on our hands here when you glance down at the data table – and that’s because those horses with outstanding form data, don’t screen particularly well on the overall TPR. This can often happen, because as I like to remind people, the TPR is a machine learning based output which takes every single variable at EquiAnalytix as an input. That allows the model to be dynamic so in the case of this race, it’s looking far deeper into the data than what we see below, something our Dashboard users get to do for every horse, in every race, each day!
But in this case I do think it’s very difficult to get away from two horses here that boast exemplary last time out speed figures, and that’s DAVIDS WELL & MIRALAGO. Starting with the former, it’s hard to get away from this horse’s very progressive ratings that are in a clear uptrend – 31, 110 and 176. His latter two efforts were both over fences and he excelled, jumped beautifully and in the process last time posted a career-high rating of 176. He does arrive here with two potential headwinds however, a 9lb rise from the handicapper plus a 330 day break will both need to be factored in here, but on all the form we’ve seen, he is about as solid as they come.
MIRALAGO however has a very different profile, having spent much of his life to date racing in France. This son of Doctor Dino is the best bred horse in this race for fences by some way, with his sire’s progeny statistics continuing to excel, with an average rating of 78 over the bigger obstacles a standout in this field. What is equally a standout is this horse’s last time out rating of 210, a figure you don’t see very often in moderate handicaps. This came at Ffos Las where the horse was comprehensively beaten into second place, but it was nonetheless a good introduction for his new stable, and the handicapper has since relented 2lbs. Today’s conditions look set to suit and at the prices this might rank as a good opportunity to target the Tote Exotics markets.
Race 3: 13:15 Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
A Class 2 handicap hurdle over the 2m2f191y trip at Haydock, bringing together competitive staying hurdlers who must cope with ground officially described as good to soft, soft in places.
Race Analysis
Next up we have a competitive looking handicap hurdle where the market has firmly latched onto one for the in-form Skelton team. KABRAL DU MATHAN is a new horse to arrive at the stable with his owners electing to move their stock from Paul Nicholls to Dan Skelton over the summer, and this will be the first time he has ran for Dan. They look to have found him an ideal opportunity here, and you only need to take a look at this horse’s career ratings to see that he stands out as a big potential improver. Total career figures of 144, 143, 161, 129 and 131 clearly showcase that this horse has lots of ability, and hence you are led to question why he hasn’t yet gone onto better things than a mark of 140. That is nothing to shy away from, but equally his profile suggests he can be even better, and it will be fascinating to see what improved the Skelton team can get from this horse. It does remain difficult to make a case for several of the others here, as most have holes in their recent form and question marks on the handling of conditions. TAX FOR MAX, FLORIDA DREAMS, MILLDAM and THE FOUR SIXES all strike me as contenders based on patches of their respective form, so these would be the ones to focus on for Exotics players, but for Win purposes it’s very hard to get away from KABRAL DU MATHAN.
Race 4: 13:50 Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase (GBB Race)
A Class 2 graduation chase over the 2m5f127y trip at Haydock, an ideal stepping-stone for progressive chasers on ground officially described as good to soft, soft in places.
Race Analysis
A really exciting race for several reasons here, but arguably none more so than seeing the return of stable star, THE JUKEBOX MAN. Trained by Ben Pauling, this horse looked to have the world at his feet after a commanding victory in last year’s Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day, before injury then ruled him out for the remainder of the season. I have to say I hadn’t expected him to be back on track so soon, so it’s testament to the team there that he’s only been off the track 331 days. As for this race, providing he is 80% ready, he looks impossible to beat. Opposition such as KNAPPERS HILL AND BUTCH have solid ratings behind them, but the substance of the form is nothing like the selection, and you have to think a horse like IROKO will be working backwards from the Grand National, not a 2m 5f Graduation Chase at Haydock!
Race 5: 14:25 Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
A Premier staying handicap hurdle over the 3m58y trip at Haydock, a searching test of stamina for seasoned hurdlers on ground officially described as good to soft, soft in places.
Race Analysis
We move back into very competitive racing here for this Premier Handicap over the extended three mile trip, a race sure to test the stamina of the entire field. What’s equally good to see is a very competitive set of figures in the table below, with on first glance as many as six or seven boasting serious credentials to win a race of this nature. If we start from the top however, it becomes difficult to ignore Dan Skelton’s ACE OF SPADES, who arrives here in top form after a career best effort to win at Aintree 6 days ago. That culminated in the horse earning a speed figure of 152, a career best performance and importantly continued his upward trend in the figures, something I believe is a very important indicator when studying handicaps. His recent ratings are a clear standout, his breeding data equally tops this field, and he is trained by a team in top form… he therefore has to be chanced despite how competitive this race is.
But there is another horse in this field that I firmly believes warrants attention, and that’s HORACES PEARL for the Fergal O’Brien team. For those who have been with us from the very beginning, you will know this horse means an awful lot to the team as it was of course his bumper win at Aintree back in April 2024 that set alight our Blog writing, given he won at a huge price. He subsequently remained unbeaten until his penultimate start back at Aintree this year, before looking tired when only third at Perth two weeks later. He had been on the go a while until that point and so a 213 day break will no doubt have done this horse the world of good, and let’s not overlook that his career ratings to date read: 118, 125, 116, 114, 116, 106 and 137. He clearly has plenty of ability, is entering only his second season as a hurdler and this extended 3m trip looks sure to generate further improvement from this son of Authorized.
Race 6: 15:00 Betfair Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) (GBB Race)
A Grade 1 chase over the 3m1f125y trip at Haydock, the Betfair Chase itself providing a mid-season championship test for top staying chasers on ground officially described as good to soft, soft in places.
Race Analysis
It’s now time for the 2025 Betfair Chase, a gruelling 3m 1f contest that is always a stalwart of the National Hunt season. This year we see both GREY DAWNING and ROYALE PAGAILLE battle it out again where the former will be looking to turn around the form on this course specialist. Admittedly last year’s race was attritional, and while I expect there to be certain similarities to that this year, the potential faster ground might just allow the selection to better travel and sustain his challenge up Haydock’s long home straight. And as for the data, it’s pretty compelling when you see his last two efforts generating ratings of 234 and 192, both clearly standout in the context of this race and it will be a surprise to see him beaten.
I would just like to take this moment however to mention HAITI COULEURS who for me ranks as a horse that could be anything. I was incredibly impressed with his performances last season, and as was the data with figures 166, 185, 122 and 134. This is an outstanding level of form, and doing it often in handicap company as he did is even more impressive. He has had his “pipe opener” at Newbury last time where he managed to win over hurdles, and will be match fit for this race. I don’t wish to get carried away here, but the way he jumps and travels from the front is reminiscent of what Bristol De Mai used to do to his opposition at this unique track. It favours those horses who can get into an early rhythm, and given he has clearly has the class in his form ratings to be competitive here, don’t be surprised if he hangs around longer than you think!
Race 7: 15:35 Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
A Class 2 handicap chase over the 3m1f125y trip at Haydock for staying chasers rated up to 145, rounding off the card on ground officially described as good to soft, soft in places.
Race Analysis
We conclude the afternoon with another gruelling long distance chase, but this time for lower grade horses. And on that latter point, I won’t be spending too much time here in the analysis as it’s very difficult to get behind many of the contenders here, with some very sub-par recent form ratings. SHOMEN UCHI will no doubt be competitive for the in form Sam Thomas team, but he will need to be match fit to overturn rivals who have already ran this season, and that’s the case for his main opposition KONFUSION. This very well named son of Schiaparelli made a winning return just 21 days ago at Wetherby, winning well despite only recording a rating of 82. However that did follow a 2nd place effort at Bangor on his penultimate start that generated an outstanding figure of 193, where clearly a return to that level of form will see him destroy a weak field here today. And that’s ultimately what the forward-looking TPR figures have latched onto here, as he sits comfortably on top of the table with a rating of 59, and will look to give you all something to cheer about come the end of the afternoon!
🎲 Tote Placepot – Haydock Betfair Chase Day – First 6 Races
- Leg 1 (12:08): Sticktotheplan (1)
- Leg 2 (12:40): David’s Well (4), Miralago (3)
- Leg 3 (13:15): Kabral Du Mathan (2)
- Leg 4 (13:50): The Jukebox Man (2)
- Leg 5 (14:25): Horaces Pearl (7), Ace Of Spades (11)
- Leg 6 (15:00): Grey Dawning (1), Haiti Couleurs (2)
This Haydock Placepot leans heavily into the core EquiAnalytix angles from today’s Betfair Chase Day analysis: forward-looking Total Performance Ratings, proven staying power on soft ground, and breeding profiles that thrive when the conditions turn testing. It’s a competitive card, but the data gives us a clear framework for building a robust perm.
📋 Selection Recap
Here are today’s bold EquiAnalytix-backed selections across the 7 races on Betfair Chase Day at Haydock:
- Race 1 (12:08): Sticktotheplan (1)
- Race 2 (12:40): David’s Well (4), Miralago (3)
- Race 3 (13:15): Kabral Du Mathan (2)
- Race 4 (13:50): The Jukebox Man (2)
- Race 5 (14:25): Horaces Pearl (7), Ace Of Spades (11)
- Race 6 (15:00): Grey Dawning (1), Haiti Couleurs (2)
- Race 7 (15:35): Konfusion (6)
These selections represent the strongest data cases on the card according to EquiAnalytix Total Performance Ratings, ground profiles, and form-cycle trends. Use them as the backbone for your Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta and, of course, Tote Placepot plays throughout the afternoon.
Conclusion
That wraps up our coverage of Betfair Chase Day at Haydock — a card where stamina, rhythm and resilience mattered every bit as much as raw class. The ground has played its part throughout, and the forward-looking EquiAnalytix metrics once again highlighted the key improvers and those most likely to handle testing conditions.
With the Tote’s Money Back 2nd offer running across selected races and a competitive slate of handicaps supporting the feature Grade 1, today offered a perfect opportunity to combine smart data with smart staking. Whether you followed the Win selections, the Exacta and Trifecta angles, or built out the Placepot perm, the numbers consistently pointed us toward value.
Through our partnership with Tote UK, we’ll continue delivering deep, data-driven race previews, strategy insights and market intelligence all the way through the winter campaign. Until the next meeting, stay disciplined, stay data-led, and keep making the most of the edge.
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