Introduction
Welcome to our Coral Gold Cup Day preview from Newbury — one of the most important staying handicap chase cards of the entire season. Long, galloping straights, a fair but unforgiving finish and mixed ground conditions across the chase and hurdle tracks combine to make this a proper examination of stamina, jumping and pace. With the chase course officially good to soft and the hurdles track soft, good to soft in places, underfoot conditions are almost certain to play a major role in how each race unfolds.
Before we get stuck into today’s action, it’s worth pausing on what the EquiAnalytix data produced last weekend at Haydock. Across seven races the figures highlighted four winners: David’s Well, Kabral Du Mathan, The Jukebox Manand Grey Dawning. That kind of strike-rate on a deep, competitive card is exactly what we’re aiming for — using forward-looking metrics to spot opportunities the market continues to misprice.
Even better, for Newbury the Tote’s Money Back 2nd offer is live again in selected races, giving you an added safety net when you’re taking a positive view. On a day where narrow margins, big field handicaps and testing ground can throw up some brutal near-misses, that insurance is incredibly valuable — and it dovetails perfectly with a data-led approach, letting you be bolder with your staking while softening the downside when you finish agonisingly close.
Dashboard Upgrade
This week has also been the first full run for our upgraded EquiAnalytix Dashboard, and it’s been brilliant to hear how many of you have thrown yourselves into it. The new Strategy Builder has been busy generating angles for today’s Newbury card, while the Market Movers tools have been picking up some very smart late shifts — several of which fed directly into last weekend’s winners. Thank you to everyone who has sent feedback, screenshots and results; it’s been great to see how you’re using the tools in the wild.
If you’ve not really explored the new features yet, consider this a final nudge: Coral Gold Cup Day is exactly the sort of meeting where the Dashboard really earns its keep. So, with the feature race and a stacked supporting card ahead of us, let’s dive into the 2025 Newbury card and identify where the edge lies this afternoon.
Race 1: 11:55 Play Coral “Racing-Super-Series” Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB Race)
A Listed mares’ novice hurdle over the 2m69y trip at Newbury, for 4yo+ runners, providing an early-season black-type opportunity on the hurdle track, which is officially soft, good to soft in places.
Race Analysis
We begin Coral Gold Cup Day with a Listed mares’ novice hurdle that looks every inch the deep, trappy opener you would expect at this meeting. Several of these arrive on the back of straightforward wins in weaker company, and naturally the TPR model has highlighted the more obvious profiles such as LA CONQUIERE, JASMINE D’AIRY and KINGSTON QUEEN. But when you dig properly into the figures, this doesn’t shape like a race where you simply follow the top of the market. It feels far more like a contest where taking a calculated position on an improving mare could pay dividends.
That brings us to JAMINSKA, who I believe is being underestimated at around 14/1 at the time of writing. Her recent EquiAnalytix speed figures of 109, 130 and 156 outline a mare progressing sharply with racing, and notably doing so in decent company while either forcing or sitting close to the pace. Her distance rating of 84 over this trip is solid, her recent RPR/TS combination (132 and 122) is among the strongest in the field, and she already has a more robust body of hurdles form than many of her rivals. Add in the fact that Jane Williams is operating at 70% RTF over the last month — with her 1m Trainer TPR comfortably outperforming her 12m figure — and this looks an ideal moment to take a swing at a mare on an upward curve.
LA CONQUIERE clearly has long-term potential, though her last-time-out figure of 54 does leave a small question when stepping into a much stronger Listed environment on more testing ground. JASMINE D’AIRY and KINGSTON QUEEN also bring appealing profiles and consistent spreads of figures, so they make plenty of sense for those building Exacta or Trifecta combinations. But in a wide-open race where several have something to find at this level, I’m more than happy to side with the progressive JAMINSKA, who looks capable of outrunning her price if reproducing the level of form she has already shown at tracks like Newton Abbot and Cheltenham.
Race 2: 12:30 Coral Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
A fiercely competitive Class 2 handicap chase over 2m6f93y for 4yo+ rated 0–145, run on Newbury’s chase course which is officially good to soft — a proper test of jumping and pace on Coral Gold Cup day.
Race Analysis
We move into a highly competitive handicap chase where a case can be made for a large number of these on paper, and that is certainly reflected in the data spreads across the field. The model has naturally highlighted several of the more established chasers — TAHMURAS, KING’S THRESHOLD and BRAVE KINGDOM all bring layers of solid form and strong historical ratings — but this is a race where the most interesting angle comes from looking at the horses stepping forward, not those already fully exposed.
That leads us straight to BOOSTER BOB, who shaped last time out as a horse with far more ability than the bare form suggests. Quite simply, he had no right to win that Newbury race. He was on the back foot early, repeatedly shuffled into difficult positions, and it took a heroic, power-packed ride from Sean Bowen to get him up in the shadows of the post. Yet despite all of that, he still managed to post a career-high figure of 169, one of the stronger last-time-out ratings in this field and achieved under clear adversity. Those are the performances you upgrade heavily — they’re often a sign the horse is ahead of his mark and progressing faster than the market realises.
The data backs that view up. His most recent EquiAnalytix speed sequence shows an identifiable upward pattern, with supportive trainer metrics and breeding data which result in very high final TPR score of 74. And it is worth noting the early market activity overnight, which has been firmly positive for the selection — often a sign that others have drawn similar conclusions from the underlying numbers.
Among the opposition, TAHMURAS remains a classy individual whose back form entitles him to be thereabouts, but his recent T-figures have flattened. KING’S THRESHOLD is the more interesting of the established runners, with a strong combination of distance and track ratings that make him a logical inclusion for those creating Exacta or Trifecta tickets. BRAVE KINGDOM also deserves respect on his best form, though consistency has never been his strongest asset.
But for win purposes, the horse with the most compelling forward-looking profile is clearly BOOSTER BOB. If he reproduces anything close to the level he showed here last time — especially without the interruptions, stumbles and positioning issues he encountered — then he has every chance of going back-to-back at Newbury. In a race with depth but uncertainty, he looks the one still moving upward at pace.
Race 3: 13:05 Coral “Daily Rewards Shaker” Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race)
A Class 3 novices’ hurdle over 2m4f118y for 4yo+ on the softer hurdle track, an ideal spot for progressive types stepping up in trip to stake an early claim for better races later in the season.
Race Analysis
This novices’ hurdle is all about identifying which of these has the raw ability to make the jump toward Graded company, and on the evidence of the figures, there is one standout candidate. The TPR model has this race as far more competitive than the market implies, with several lightly raced types still capable of taking sizeable steps forward. But even with that in mind, it’s very difficult to get away from the sheer scale of the performance delivered last time by KALKBRENNNER.
His win at Ffos Las returned a rating of 249 — a colossal figure for a novice at this stage of the season, and one that would not look out of place in far higher company. He travelled strongly, jumped cleanly, and crucially sustained that effort all the way to the line in proper soft ground. When a horse matches visual authority with data of that magnitude, you sit up and take notice. His overall profile reads like a horse who is rapidly accelerating and who will relish staying trips as the season progresses. If he simply reproduces that Ffos Las level of form, he sets a bar that the rest of this field are going to find extremely difficult to reach.
But this isn’t a one-horse race, and for those playing in the exotics, it would be remiss not to highlight KLIMT MADRIK, who produced an excellent UK debut effort and offers an appealing combination of upside and proven ability. His rating of 231 clearly puts him firmly in the conversation, and his breeding data is the strongest in the race — his sire boasts standout ratings across distance, going and type, and his dam’s NH progeny figures support the view that stamina and improvement are almost guaranteed as he gains experience. He shaped like a horse who will appreciate a more demanding test, and Newbury’s long straight should play directly to his strengths.
Of the remainder, BURNCOURT BOY and KOCKTAIL BLEU have snippets of form that suggest they may outrun their raw ratings in time, but they still need to bridge a considerable gap to the top two on what we know today. This looks the perfect setup for a rising star to confirm his trajectory.
Race 4: 13:40 “Join Coral Bet £10 Get £50” Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
A deep Class 2 0–145 handicap hurdle over 2m4f118y for 4yo+, run on the soft, good to soft in places hurdle track and typically one of the strongest betting races on the Coral Gold Cup undercard.
Race Analysis
This is one of the most competitive races on the card — a deep Class 2 handicap hurdle where several arrive with partial positives but very few bring the full, balanced data profile you ideally want at this level. The data spreads are tight, the recent form lines are messy, and there is no obvious “free square” in here. But when you drill deeper into the underlying figures, two horses do begin to separate themselves from the pack.
The strongest overall case is for LUDOR, who edges this on the combination of recent speed ratings, suitability for soft ground, and his growing body of evidence over intermediate trips. His last three performances include figures of 2106, 101 and 150, backed up by a seriously strong DistanceTPR and GoingTPR profile. He’s a straightforward, progressive type who looks in the middle of a developmental curve rather than at the top of one, and these are exactly the horses who tend to win big-field 2m4f handicaps at Newbury. There are more glamorous profiles elsewhere, but very few bring the same level of reliability across the variables that matter today.
The second horse who appeals is DARGIANNINI, who shapes like a runner still very much at the start of his handicap journey. His best rating of 176 from earlier in his career point toward a horse crying out for a proper test at this trip on soft ground, and his sire-line has an excellent strike-rate when stepping up to 2m4f and beyond. And it’s his consistency in his recent figures that drive him to the top of the Total Performance Ratings here, further bolsted by the Harry Derham stable operating at a very high level over the last 1 month.
Race 5: 14:15 Coral Racing Club Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
A high-quality Class 1 intermediate handicap hurdle over 2m69y for 4yo+, staged on the softer hurdle track and designed for second-season and upwardly mobile hurdlers to bridge the gap between handicap company and Graded level.
Race 5 — Analysis
This year’s Feilden looks a strong renewal, with several unexposed hurdlers converging from different form lines — but the data points firmly toward INDEEVAR BLEU as the horse arriving with both the strongest ratings foundation and the clearest upward trajectory.
He tops our TPR Ratings coming into the race, and his recent EquiAnalytix speed figures (126 → 97 → 119 → 70 → 175) paint the profile of a horse capable of running seriously big numbers when conditions play to his strengths. His wins at Leicester and Ffos Las last season returned adjusted ratings of 119 and 126, both on softish ground, and crucially both came with a sense he had more to give. The return of Sean Bowen — who has an excellent record when paired with Olly Murphy’s improving hurdlers — strengthens the case further. Support overnight into 7/2 adds confidence that today is a target.
There is depth to this, however, and the dangers are credible. TUTTI QUANTI possesses the highest figure in the whole field with that enormous 183 TrackTPR at Newbury last season, and his Ffos Las win (TPR 158) proves it wasn’t a fluke. If he returns to that level, he is an obvious threat, though his reappearance run does leave a question of consistency.
INDEMNITY is another who deserves respect. His Market Rasen and Warwick wins last spring were backed up by genuine substance, and his Ascot return — where he cruised into contention before finding one too good — is the sort of prep run that often leads straight to a peak effort second time out. Whereas GIVE IT TO ME OJ remains unexposed over hurdles and his Flat figures show he can post high ratings on his day, but returning to soft ground here may blunt his speed a little compared with his best summer efforts.
Race 6: 14:55 Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
The feature race of the afternoon: a historic Class 1 Premier Handicap over 3m1f214y for 4yo+ chasers, run on Newbury’s galloping chase track officially described as good to soft — a stern stamina and jumping test that often shapes the staying chase division for the rest of the season.
Race Analysis
The Coral Gold Cup is always one of the most revealing staying handicaps of the season, and this year’s renewal feels no different — deep, competitive, and packed with second-season chasers who could easily progress into graded company. The data is extremely tight across the top half of the field, but two profiles stand out as the most compelling forward-looking cases, and both come from the same yard.
PANIC ATTACK has been on the EquiAnalytix radar ever since her powerful performance at Windsor last season, and regular readers will also know that the data went on to select her at this year’s Paddy Power winner at Cheltenham, a race she won with ease. Her career-high speed ratings (170s into 180s) underpin a horse who jumps economically, travels strongly, and — crucially for a race like this — wastes very little energy through her races. Although today’s 3m1f+ trip is the furthest she has encountered, the way she shaped late on at Cheltenham suggests stamina is more likely a strength than a weakness. She looks the finished article for a big-field staying handicap: smooth, progressive, and tactically versatile.
The second Skelton runner, RISKINTHEGROUND, brings a slightly different profile but one every bit as interesting. His TPR rating sits right up with the leading contenders, and his ground-angostic staying chase figures from last season (notably ratings in the high 150s and 160s) mark him out as a horse who is versatile when it comes to underfoot conditions. What swings it for the data is the horse’s last time out performance at Newton Abbot where he earned a career-best rating of 202. That in isolation is an outstanding piece of form, and while not being at your usual Grade 1 track, it still needs taking very seriously for a team in red hot form. He does, like the first selection, need to prove conclusively that he stays three miles, but he travels through his races so efficiently that it would be no surprise to see him going best of all turning in. His sire-line also offers strong encouragement that further improvement comes with distance.
If the Skelton pair don’t fire, there are several highly credible dangers. MONTY’S STAR is a strong stayer with a big engine but does have the odd flat spot, and INTENSE RAFFLES arrives with excellent form but must now translate that into a strongly-run UK handicap. THREE CARD BRAG has long looked tailor-made for this race but has yet to deliver a ratings spike that matches his reputation, while SPANISH HARLEM and PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS are capable of big figures but come with inconsistency flags in the data.
Race 7: 15:35 Coral “Pipped-At-The-Post” Payouts Handicap Chase (For The Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) (GBB Race)
A Class 3 0–140 handicap chase over 2m92y for 4yo+ on the good-to-soft chase course, rounding off the card with a sharp but stamina-testing contest where pace and accurate jumping are at a premium.
Race Analysis
We close the card with a competitive 2m handicap chase, but unlike some of the earlier races where the data was tightly clustered, this one has a very clear standout. The EquiAnalytix figures line up almost perfectly behind JAVERT ALLEN, who brings the strongest combination of TPR leadership, recent speed ratings, breeding depth and trainer form on the entire Newbury card. Even after sustained overnight support into 3/1, his profile still projects as value.
His most recent figures tell a story of a horse rising sharply through the ranks: a last-time-out rating of 184 is comfortably ahead of anything else in the field, supported by a clean jumping display and a pace profile that suits this sharper right-handed track extremely well. His sire-line excels at producing high-cruising-speed chasers, and his dam’s NH progeny ratings are notably strong for this grade, reinforcing the sense that this trip and ground should be ideal.
What makes the case even stronger is the stability across all metrics. His DistanceTPR, GoingTPR, and TrackTPR are all in positive territory, his recent form figures of 165, 88 and 184 show clear ability, and the yard is operating at an excellent level with a 1m average of 85 exceeding their 12m of 79, with 70% of horses running to form — exactly the type of stable you want to side with in the final race of a long afternoon. There is nothing flaky about the profile; he looks the type to run to his mark or better once again.
There are, of course, dangers. ETALON brings solid chase experience and could pick up pieces if this turns tactical. GENERAL MEDRANO and RARE EDITION have isolated pieces of form that hint at competitiveness at this level. But all of them have question marks on either consistency, ground, or recent data trends. None have the all-round profile that the selection brings into this.
🎲 Tote Placepot – Newbury Coral Gold Cup Day – First 6 Races
- Leg 1 (11:55): Jaminska (4)
- Leg 2 (12:30): Booster Bob (5)
- Leg 3 (13:05): Kalkbrenner (1), Klimt Madrik (6)
- Leg 4 (13:40): Ludor (4), Dargiannini (2)
- Leg 5 (14:15): Indeevar Bleu (5), Tutti Quanti (3)
- Leg 6 (14:55): Panic Attack (17), Riskintheground (14)
This Newbury Placepot leans directly into the key EquiAnalytix signals across today’s Coral Gold Cup card: forward-looking Total Performance Ratings, pace efficiency, proven suitability to soft–leaning ground, and stable form cycles. It’s a deep, competitive meeting, but the data offers a clear framework for constructing a strong, value-focused perm.
📋 Selection Recap
Here are today’s bold EquiAnalytix-backed selections across the 7 races on Coral Gold Cup Day at Newbury:
- Race 1 (11:55): Jaminska (4)
- Race 2 (12:30): Booster Bob (5)
- Race 3 (13:05): Kalkbrenner (1), Klimt Madrik (6)
- Race 4 (13:40): Ludor (4), Dargiannini (2)
- Race 5 (14:15): Indeevar Bleu (5)
- Race 6 (14:55): Panic Attack (17), Riskintheground (14)
- Race 7 (15:35): Javert Allen (7)
These selections reflect the clearest forward-facing cases on the Newbury card, drawn from EquiAnalytix Total Performance Ratings, form-cycle trends, stable metrics, and breeding suitability. Use them as the backbone for your Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta, and Tote Bet Builder plays throughout the afternoon.
Conclusion
That wraps up our data-driven preview of Coral Gold Cup Day at Newbury — a card where pace efficiency, jumping accuracy and staying power all matter enormously. With mixed ground across the chase and hurdle tracks, today’s meeting asks serious questions, and the EquiAnalytix model has once again helped spotlight the horses most likely to deliver under these conditions.
The Tote’s Money Back 2nd offer in selected races adds an additional layer of value, particularly on a competitive card like this where narrow margins and hard-luck stories are commonplace. Combining that insurance with a data-first approach allows for smarter staking and stronger long-term returns.
Through our partnership with Tote UK, we’ll continue to deliver deep, quantitative race previews, market intelligence and betting insights throughout the winter. Until next time — stay analytical, stay disciplined, and keep finding the edge.g, stay disciplined, stay data-led, and keep making the most of the edge.
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