Introduction
Merry Christmas to everyone who’s been celebrating — and welcome to one of the most unique fixtures of the entire racing calendar. Boxing Day delivers wall-to-wall action with 11 meetings across the UK & Ireland, and for jumps fans the day is headlined by the iconic King George VI Chase at Kempton.
It’s a meeting that deserves a proper roar. With Kempton’s long-term future still up in the air, I’m hoping the crowd sends this year’s winner home with a thunderous reception — a reminder of exactly why we’d be devastated to lose a track that has produced so many famous Boxing Day moments.
🌍 Platform Update — Hong Kong Data Now Live
Before we dive into Kempton, a quick but exciting announcement: EquiAnalytix has officially gone international. Hong Kong racing is now fully integrated into the platform, available for dashboard users on PC, iOS and Android.
This has been a huge project behind the scenes — our Hong Kong database stretches back to 2008, giving us the depth to build stable baselines and stress-test the ratings thoroughly. The early results have been incredibly encouraging, with Happy Valley’s launch day delivering a top-rated winner at 15/4 and another at 61/10. A brilliant start.
With Hong Kong now embedded, our sights turn to the UAE, with the goal of being live for the Dubai Carnival and World Cup Night at Meydan in March. Watch this space.
Newbury Recap — Coral Gold Cup Day
It’s also worth a quick look back at just how strong the EquiAnalytix data was at Newbury’s Coral Gold Cup Day. The numbers pointed us to the right horses for both straight bets and exotics, and the results backed it up:
- Placepot success: 16-line Placepot advised with 4 winning lines returning £43.70 per line.
- Winning selections: Booster Bob (4/1), Klimt Madrik (9/1), Panic Attack (16/1) — a treble return of 850/1.
- Placed runners: Jaminska (9/1), Indeevar Blue (9/2), Javert Allen (3/1).
- Exacta highlight: Race 3 Exacta Klimt Madrik / Kalkbrenner paid £29.60.
Now we turn our attention to Kempton’s feature card, where we’ll lean on the same core principles — Total Performance Ratings, speed figures, and the profiles that suit the demands of the race — to build a smart Boxing Day plan across the Tote markets.
Race 1: 12:45 “Get Your Ladbrokes Free Kempton Bet” Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
A Class 3 chase over 2m4f110y, for 4yo+, rated 0-130, (10-runner field), on good ground.
Race Analysis
This novice limited handicap chase looks a fascinating contest on paper, with several unexposed types taking their early steps over fences. The TPR figures put NOBLE PARK at the head of affairs, and the Nicky Henderson inmate has certainly been progressive of late with back-to-back wins at Lingfield and Hereford. Those victories returned figures of 103 and 85 respectively — solid if unspectacular — and the step up in grade here will ask more questions.
There is one horse in this field, however, whose last-time-out figure really catches the eye. BARLOVENTO posted a huge class-adjusted rating of 165 when chasing home a well-regarded rival at Exeter 39 days ago. That effort blows away anything else achieved recently in this field and suggests the handicapper may have underestimated him off a mark of 121. The Olly Murphy yard is ticking along nicely with a one-month trainer rating of 82, and the booking of Sean Bowen — in such fine form this season — adds further confidence. The consistent profile (he hasn’t finished outside the first two in his last four completed starts) suggests a horse who knows where the line is, and he looks very much the type to take well to fences.
U CANT BE SERIOUS warrants respect given his T-2 figure of 168 from Exeter in November, though that came over hurdles and he will need to transfer that ability to the larger obstacles. SECRET DES DIEUX has eye-catching form figures too, but consistency has been an issue. At current odds, the Murphy/Bowen combination with BARLOVENTO looks the way to go.
Race 2: 13:20 Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (In Memory Of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
A Grade 1 chase over 3m, for 4yo+, (6-runner field).
Race Analysis
The Kauto Star is always one of the highlights of the festive programme, and this year’s renewal sees a compact field of six go to post for the Grade 1 prize. The Mullins-trained KITZBUHEL will attract plenty of attention given the yard’s outstanding record in British Graded races, and the booking of Paul Townend underlines the significance of the raid. However, his chase debut figure of 106 at Punchestown — albeit on testing soft-to-heavy ground — doesn’t leap off the page when compared to some of his rivals here, and his hurdles form, whilst solid at Graded level, returned figures in the 113-126 range.
WENDIGO commands respect following his impressive Newbury success last time, where he posted a figure of 164. That was a career-best over fences for the Jamie Snowden inmate, though a much weaker effort of just 55 at Worcester the time before does raise a question about consistency. The step up to three miles should suit on pedigree, but he will need to reproduce that Newbury level.
Looking purely at the data, it is BLUEKING D’OROUX who stands out. The Paul Nicholls-trained seven-year-old posted the highest last-time-out figure in this field — a huge 173 when winning at Wincanton 48 days ago. Crucially, that wasn’t an isolated effort either; his previous chase run returned 150 at Newton Abbot when beaten just a nose. The upward trajectory is clear, his sire’s progeny handle Good ground well (SireGoingTPR of 74), and connections clearly hold him in some regard to pitch him in at Grade 1 level. At what is likely to be a generous price, the Nicholls/Cobden combination may just spring a surprise.
Race 3: 13:55 Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
A Grade 1 hurdle over 2m, for 4yo+, (6-runner field).
Race Analysis
The Christmas Hurdle is always a highlight of the Kempton card, and this year’s renewal features the welcome return of last year’s imperious winner, SIR GINO. The Nicky Henderson-trained star has been off the track for 364 days following a well-documented illness, but if anywhere close to his best, he is a class above these rivals. His figures tell the story emphatically: a last-time-out rating of 217 when destroying this field twelve months ago, preceded by a 201 at Newcastle. Those numbers dwarf anything else on display here, and his TPR rating of 74 sits comfortably clear at the head of the market.
The main danger on the data is the Paul Nicholls-trained RUBAUD, who has posted figures of 160 and 188 in two starts this season. Those are smart efforts, particularly the Kempton success in October, and he clearly handles this track well with a TrackTPR of 116. CELTIC DINO has been consistent without being spectacular, with back-to-back figures of 122 suggesting he’ll run his race for the in-form Sam Thomas yard.
The obvious concern with SIR GINO is the lengthy absence and what impact the illness may have had. However, Nicky Henderson would not pitch him into a Grade 1 unless satisfied with his wellbeing, and the booking of Nico de Boinville speaks to the confidence in camp. If reproducing even 80% of last year’s form, he should prove too good for these.
Race 4: 14:30 Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
A Grade 1 chase over 3m, for 4yo+, (8-runner field)
Race Analysis
The King George VI Chase needs little introduction — this is the three-mile championship that defines Kempton’s Boxing Day card, and this year’s renewal brings together a stellar cast. The defending champion BANBRIDGE returns, as does course winner IL EST FRANCAIS, but neither arrive in the form that saw them prevail previously. BANBRIDGE’s last-time-out figure of just 28 at Cork is a shadow of the 179 he posted when winning this twelve months ago, while IL EST FRANCAIS was pulled up at Ascot last month after disappointing at Cheltenham in March.
That opens the door for a changing of the guard, and GAELIC WARRIOR looks the horse to deliver it. Willie Mullins’ stable star boasts the highest TPR rating in this field at 63, the joint-highest official rating at 174, and form figures that scream class. His Aintree success in April returned a huge figure of 200, while subsequent victories at Sandown (143) and Punchestown (140) demonstrate consistency at the highest level. Paul Townend takes the ride for what feels like a coronation, and crucially his sire’s progeny handle Good ground well with a SireGoingTPR of 69.
JANGO BAIE emerges as the obvious threat from the data perspective, and it would be no surprise to see him hit the frame at minimum. His figures of 161, 172 and 145 across his last three completed starts are rock solid, and Nicky Henderson knows what it takes to win this race. The slight concern is that his peak effort — a 212 at Sandown in February — came on heavy ground, and he may just lack the brilliance of the selection when push comes to shove on a better surface. DJELO’s Wetherby figure of 203 is eye-catching, but Venetia Williams’ charge was a beaten favourite at Aintree last spring and questions remain over his ability to deliver in championship company.
For those looking at the exotic markets, THE JUKEBOX MAN warrants serious consideration. Ben Pauling’s charge won the Kauto Star at this meeting twelve months ago (125 figure) and followed up at Haydock last time. His TrackTPR of 125 confirms an affinity with Kempton, and at a price he looks the ideal candidate to include in a Tote Swinger alongside the selection. A market move for this consistent performer would not surprise.
Race 5: 15:05 “Join Ladbrokes Bet £5 Get £30” Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
A Class 2 hurdle over 2m, for 4yo+, (12-runner field)
Race Analysis
This Class 2 maiden hurdle is a tricky puzzle to solve, with several unexposed types holding realistic claims. The TPR figures highlight three horses who stand clear of the remainder: KLUB DE REVE and ZAMEK share top billing on 55, with LOCK STOCK not far behind on 49. Those looking to play the exotic markets — particularly the Tote Swinger — may find value in covering all three.
The standout performance in this field, however, belongs to KLUB DE REVE. Harry Derham’s charge posted a monster figure of 177 when chasing home what looks a smart prospect at Exeter 21 days ago. That effort was a significant step forward from his previous hurdles start at Newbury (44), suggesting a horse who is rapidly learning his trade. His sire’s progeny handle Good ground particularly well with a SireGoingTPR of 75, and the yard is ticking along nicely with a TrainerTPR of 81 over the past month.
ZAMEK is the clear danger for the in-form Olly Murphy/Sean Bowen combination. His figures of 142 and 150 across two career starts are solid, and the manner of his Lingfield second suggested there is more to come. LOCK STOCK has been knocking on the door with four consecutive seconds and posted 151 at Market Rasen last time — he just needs to learn how to win. JIMBO SPORT has track form (106 when second here last month) and warrants respect for the Ben Pauling team, while IONIAN is an unknown quantity on debut for Nicky Henderson and could outrun his odds. Nevertheless, the raw speed figure points firmly to KLUB DE REVE.
Race 6: 15:40 Ladbrokes “Best Odds Guaranteed In Racing” Handicap Hurdle
A Class 3 hurdle over 2m5f, for 3yo+, rated 0-140, (11-runner field)
Race Analysis
The lucky last is a competitive Class 3 handicap hurdle that looks wide open on paper. KAP BOY heads the TPR ratings on 37 for the ever-dangerous Olly Murphy/Sean Bowen combination, and his figure of 132 when third at Cheltenham last time is solid. SURREY LORD has been in fine form for Toby Lawes with two wins from his last three starts, including a huge figure of 188 at Ffos Las in October. However, neither can match the recent trajectory of the selection.
ONEWAYWEST arrives here seeking a hat-trick following impressive back-to-back victories at Warwick (156) and Wetherby (164). Those figures are comfortably the best recent efforts in this field, and crucially the Ben Pauling team have engaged young Elliott England to claim a valuable 7lbs. That weight allowance could prove decisive in a race of this nature, effectively dropping the selection to a very workable mark. The yard’s one-month figures (TrainerTPR of 81) suggest the string are in good order, and everything points to this progressive type going in again.
For those seeking an each-way angle, NORTH LODGE is impossible to ignore despite having been off the track for a whopping 755 days. His historical figures are extraordinary — 204 at Newbury, 239 at Kelso — and it is eye-catching that connections have chosen this competitive contest for his reappearance when easier options were surely available. Alan King doesn’t make many mistakes at this level, and if anywhere near that previous ability, he could outrun his odds at a price. The market will be worth monitoring closely.
🎲 Tote Placepot – Kempton Park Boxing Day – First 6 Races
- Leg 1 (12:45): Barlovento (7), Noble Park (4)
- Leg 2 (13:20): Blueking D’oroux (1), Wendigo (6)
- Leg 3 (13:55): Sir Gino (4)
- Leg 4 (14:30): Gaelic Warrior (4), The Jukebox Man (8)
- Leg 5 (15:05): Klub De Reve (6), Zamek (10)
- Leg 6 (15:40): Onewaywest (5), North Lodge (1)
A 32-line Placepot that leans into the core EquiAnalytix selections from today’s analysis.
📋 Selection Recap
Here are today’s bold selections across the 6 races on Boxing Day at Kempton:
- Race 1 (12:45): Barlovento (7)
- Race 2 (13:20): Blueking D’oroux (1)
- Race 3 (13:55): Sir Gino (4)
- Race 4 (14:30): Gaelic Warrior (4), The Jukebox Man (8)
- Race 5 (15:05): Klub De Reve (6)
- Race 6 (15:40): Onewaywest (5)
These are the runners flagged in today’s write-ups as offering the strongest data case via EquiAnalytix Total Performance Ratings, recent speed figures, and course/ground suitability. Use them as the backbone for your Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta and, of course, Tote Placepot plays.lity. Use them as the backbone for your Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta, and Tote Bet Builder plays throughout the afternoon.
Conclusion
That wraps up our coverage of Boxing Day at Kempton — the jewel in the crown of the festive racing calendar and a card that never fails to deliver drama.
The King George takes centre stage as always, and we’re siding with GAELIC WARRIOR to announce himself as the new three-mile king, while keeping THE JUKEBOX MAN onside for those playing the exotic markets. Elsewhere, we’re hoping SIR GINO can make a triumphant return in the Christmas Hurdle, trusting the upward curve of BARLOVENTO and KLUB DE REVE in their respective novice events, and backing the in-form ONEWAYWEST to complete the hat-trick in the finale.
Through our partnership with Tote UK, we’ll be back throughout the jumps season with more data-driven insights, Placepot perms and Money Back 2nd angles as the trail winds towards the Cheltenham Festival. Until then, stay disciplined, stay data-led, and keep making the most of the edge.
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