Introduction
Day 1 delivered. Brighterdaysahead (£3.75) and Bowensonfire (£12.90) both won for the blog, with the data pointing towards both horses well before the off. Royal Hillsborough should have made it three winners after rallying best into the final furlong of the bumper, only for a misjudged finish to see him touched off for second. The Tote would have paid £10.00 on that horse, so that one stings. Still, a profitable day and exactly the kind of results we look for when the numbers align with proven ground and track form.
Now onto Day 2. Seven more races, five of them at Grade 1 level, and the ground remains Heavy. Leopardstown took a battering earlier in the week and credit to the groundstaff for getting the show on the road. Conditions will once again be the defining factor, and our ratings have been filtered accordingly.
For anyone new to these blogs, we partner with the Tote to bring you data-led previews for the biggest meetings on the calendar. Our aim is simple: use the EquiAnalytix ratings, pace maps and historical insights to highlight the key contenders for each race. Best of all, the Tote are offering Money Back as a Free Bet if your horse finishes second in every race at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend – perfect for finishes like yesterday’s bumper… at least it wouldn’t have been a loss!
🏇 Today’s Card at a Glance
Seven races. Four Grade 1s. One of the best cards of the season:
- 13:15 – Nathaniel Lacy Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m6f, 9 runners
- 13:50 – Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m, 7 runners
- 14:25 – Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle (Listed) – 3m, 24 runners
- 14:55 – Irish Arkle (Grade 1) – 2m1f, 3 runners
- 15:30 – Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1) – 3m½f, 13 runners
- 16:05 – Barberstown Castle Handicap Chase (Listed) – 2m1f, 14 runners
- 16:40 – Champion Bumper Trial (Grade 2) – 2m, 7 runners
The feature is obvious. The Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup brings together Galopin Des Champs, Gaelic Warrior, I Am Maximus, Fact To File and more in what promises to be a thrilling Gold Cup trial. But there is quality throughout – the Arkle with just three runners sets up as a fascinating tactical puzzle, while the 24-runner handicap hurdle offers serious each-way value for Tote Placepot players.
🎯 How We Approach The Data
At the heart of our analysis sits the TPR (Total Performance Rating) – a machine learning-driven, forward-looking metric that synthesises a horse’s recent form, track and distance aptitude, going preferences, and breeding into a single predictive number. The proof is in the results: horses ranked in the top three on TPR win approximately 55% of all races across the UK and Ireland, while the top four account for around 67%. It’s a powerful filter that immediately separates genuine contenders from hopeful also-rans.
Supporting the TPR are a handful of key metrics we will reference throughout:
- T-1 through T-5 – Speed figures from the last five runs, adjusted for class. T-1 is the most recent. Recency matters: a horse relying on a big T-4 or T-5 may have peaked months ago.
- GoingTPR – How well a horse has performed on today’s ground. With conditions this testing, horses with proven soft ground form deserve extra credit.
- TrackTPR – Leopardstown-specific performance. The track’s undulations and long home straight suit a particular type of horse.
- Trainer Momentum – A trainer’s 1-month performance against their 12-month average. When a yard is running hot, even their second-string runners outperform expectations.
One crucial note on today’s conditions: the data will naturally favour horses with strong Heavy ground figures, but we must be careful not to become slaves to a single metric. A horse who has never seen Heavy ground is not automatically dismissed – they may simply have never been asked the question. We will balance proven mud-lovers with unexposed types who have the profile to handle it. Context, as always, is everything.
Let’s get into the card.Let’s get into the card.
Race 1: 13:15 Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
2m6f | Hurdle | Soft | 9 runners
Race Analysis
The opener presents an intriguing puzzle where the TPR hierarchy and the ground conditions pull in different directions. LOVE ME TENDER commands the top rating at 40, and her T-2 of 168 from a Grade 2 second at Tipperary is comfortably the highest recent figure in the field. She also has a TrackTPR of 124 from finishing third in the Lawlor’s here in December. The Mullins filly clearly has class, but the comment from that Leopardstown run noted she “didn’t always jump with fluency” and had “no extra approaching last”. With Paul Townend elsewhere, Mark Walsh takes the ride.
SANTO SOSPIR makes the most compelling case when the ground is factored in. His T-1 of 151 from Clonmel 25 days ago is the standout last-time-out figure in the field, and crucially his GoingTPR of 151 is also the highest – that figure coming from a performance on Heavy ground where he “led after 3 out, shaken up and went clear approaching last – readily”. Gordon Elliott sending Sean Bowen over from Britain is a significant jockey booking that signals intent. The step up to Grade 1 is a question, but the figures suggest he has the raw ability to compete at this level.
KAZANSKY adds another Elliott string to the bow with solid credentials on testing ground. His T-1 of 118 and T-2 of 122 came on Heavy and Soft to Heavy respectively over the Christmas period, and his GoingTPR of 118 confirms an aptitude for conditions with cut. Jack Kennedy takes the ride, and the Milan breeding is classically suited to stamina tests. He represents a solid each-way option behind his stablemate.
DOCTOR STEINBERG wears the Mullins first colours with Townend up, and his GoingTPR of 123 from a Fairyhouse bumper on Heavy suggests the ground will not be an issue. However, his hurdles figures trail significantly behind his bumper career – T-1 of 63 and T-2 of 72 against bumper figures of 161, 178 and 166. He won comfortably at Navan in December, “made all – went clear inside final 110yds – readily”, but that was just a maiden novice. The jump to Grade 1 is significant.
FRANKIE JOHN has both course and going form – his TrackTPR of 87 comes from winning here on December 29th, and his GoingTPR of 121 confirms he handles cut. Denis Hogan takes the ride himself, which speaks to connections’ belief. JALON D’OUDAIRIES has the best TrackTPR in the field at 105 from finishing second here in December, but no proven soft ground form is a concern. YESHIL has a GoingTPR of 102 from winning at Punchestown on Heavy, though he jumped awkwardly that day. RISKAWAY and TACKLETOMMYWOOWOO look outclassed on figures.
The selection is SANTO SOSPIR. The T-1 of 151 is the best last-run figure in the field by some margin, and the GoingTPR confirms he handles testing conditions. Sean Bowen’s presence underlines Elliott’s confidence in a horse who appears ready for this step up in class.
🎯SELECTION
7 SANTO SOSPIR
Race 2: 13:50 Gannon’s City Recovery & Recycling Services Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
2m | Hurdle | Soft | 7 runners
Race Analysis
NARCISO HAS holds the top TPR at 22 and his T-1 of 155 from winning the December juvenile hurdle at this course is a commanding figure. His TrackTPR of 155 confirms Leopardstown holds no fears. Mark Walsh had him “pushed along and went clear after 2 out – ran on well” that day, and by Doctor Dino out of a Coastal Path mare, the breeding offers stamina. The concern is a GoingTPR of zero – he has simply never raced on ground with significant cut. In a seven-runner Grade 1, that creates some uncertainty.
BARBIZON emerges as an interesting alternative with a profile that suits these conditions better than his TPR of 8 suggests. His T-1 of 109 came when winning at this course in December, and both his GoingTPR (109) and TrackTPR (109) confirm proven form on the ground and at the track. He was beaten over 4 lengths by Narciso Has here previously, so needs to find improvement, but the conditions are more in his favour today.
IMMEDIATE EFFECT won nicely at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve, posting a T-1 of 127, but the comment notes he “wandered around when challenging last” – greenness that could prove costly in Grade 1 company. Sean Bowen takes the ride for Elliott, which is a positive, but a GoingTPR of zero means he is another with an unanswered question about the ground.
BERTUTEA has proven soft ground form, winning at Limerick on Boxing Day where he was “prominent, led and going best before 2 out, clear before last – readily”. His GoingTPR of 90 comes from that performance. For Mullins with Sean O’Keeffe, he could outrun his odds if the ground becomes the deciding factor.
SELMA DE VARY is an interesting runner – a Zarak filly from the Mullins yard with Townend booked despite no public form. French imports of this ilk can be anything, and Townend’s presence demands respect. Without form data, she is impossible to assess on figures alone. NORTH SHORE has a TrackTPR of 116 from finishing second here in December but no soft ground form. MANGE TOUT is well held.
The selection is NARCISO HAS. The T-1 of 155 and TrackTPR of 155 represent the clear form standard in this field. While the ground is a slight unknown, he has proven his ability at this track and the class edge should tell.
🎯SELECTION
4 NARCISO HAS
Race 3: 14:25 Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)
3m | Hurdle | Soft | 23 runners
Race Analysis
The cavalry charge of the day – 23 runners over three miles on Soft ground in a valuable Listed handicap. With on original data selection, Staffordshire Knot, now a non-runner, this opens up considerably and two horses emerge with standout figures from different angles.
D ART D ART has the best T-1 in the field at 142, and his TPR of 15 is joint fourth-highest. Thomas Cooper’s seven-year-old has solid recent ratings, despite the form looking a little questionable, and Daniel King takes the ride. The question mark is a weaker GoingTPR – he has pockets of form on deep ground, but has largely achieved far better on good-to-soft, and that’s a query on today’s surface. But when a horse leads the field this decisively on last-run figures, you have to respect it.
CHAMPAGNE KID has the other standout figure – a GoingTPR of 139 that’s nearly 20 points clear of anything else in the field. He also posts the fourth-best TrackTPR at 86, so he handles both the ground and the track. His T-1 of 75 and TPR of 5 are modest, but when a horse leads the field this decisively on going form and it’s running on that ground, that’s a significant angle. Eoghan Finegan’s 7lb claim brings him to an attractive weight, and don’t rule out this son of Vadamos landing the hattrick here.
COUNTY FINAL offers proven consistency. His T-1 of 118 and equal GoingTPR match exactly – his last run was on soft ground at Limerick where he ran to form. Mark Walsh takes the ride for Emmet McNamara.
ECLIPSE CHASER from Mullins has the joint-highest TPR at 16, a GoingTPR of 109, and TrackTPR of 87. He ticks boxes across multiple metrics with Sean O’Keeffe aboard. SMALL TOWN HERO posts the best TPR in the field at 17 with a GoingTPR of 81 – solid all-round credentials at bigger odds.
The selections here however are D ART D ART and CHAMPAGNE KID. Two different angles in an open race – D Art D Art has the best recent form with a T-1 of 142.5 clear of the field, while Champagne Kid has the best going form with a GoingTPR of 138.8 nearly 20 points clear. One rewards trusting the form book, the other rewards trusting the conditions. In a 23-runner handicap without a standout, backing both angles makes sense.
🎯SELECTIONS
2 D ART D ART
9 CHAMPAGNE KID
Race 4: 14:55 Paddy’s Rewards Club Irish Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1)
2m1f | Chase | Soft | 3 runners
Race Analysis
Just three runners for this Grade 1, but what a trio. The small field magnifies the importance of course form, and one horse stands out on that metric.
ROMEO COOLIO was impressive when winning at this course on December 26th, posting a T-1 of 235 – a big figure that matches the level required for this grade. He “went second and 1 length down last, ridden and challenging final 110yds, led towards finish” to collar the leader in the dying strides, displaying the turn of foot that wins races at this level. His TrackTPR of 212 is exceptional and confirms this track brings out his best. He also has the best GoingTPR in the field at 102, proving he handles cut in the ground. Jack Kennedy rides for Gordon Elliott, and the Kayf Tara breeding suggests stamina for days.
KARGESE commands top billing on TPR at 27, and Willie Mullins sends Paul Townend to ride. However, her last-time-out figure requires context. The T-1 of 108 came from an apparently comfortable Leopardstown success in December, but the comment reveals she was “4 lengths ahead when left well clear 2 out – unchallenged” after her main rival fell. Her GoingTPR of 81 and TrackTPR of 87 are both solid, but significantly below Romeo Coolio’s figures in both metrics.
DOWNMEXICOWAY has a T-1 of 239 from Gowran Park in November where he “kept on well and went clear final 110yds” – marginally the best last-run figure in the field. However, his GoingTPR of zero indicates he has no form on ground with significant cut, and his TrackTPR of zero means he has never run at Leopardstown. In a three-runner tactical race, course knowledge matters.
The tactical dimension favours the selection. In a small field, pace becomes paramount. KARGESE has made all in her last two – she will want to dominate from the front. DOWNMEXICOWAY pressed the leaders at Gowran. ROMEO COOLIO came from off the pace here in December, sitting in behind before unleashing that decisive turn of foot. If KARGESE and DOWNMEXICOWAY engage early, Kennedy can sit and wait.
The selection is ROMEO COOLIO. The TrackTPR of 212 is the definitive Leopardstown form in this field, he has the best GoingTPR, and Jack Kennedy’s booking for Elliott signals this is their Cheltenham horse.
🎯SELECTION
2 ROMEO COOLIO
Race 5: 15:30 Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1)
3m | Chase | Soft | 13 runners
Race Analysis
The feature of the festival and a fascinating renewal with several contenders holding legitimate claims. STELLAR STORY commands the top TPR at 38, though his recent form figures are modest with a T-1 of just 50. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS sits second on 26, but his T-1 of 94 from the Savills Chase here on December 28th tells a concerning story – he was beaten into third that day, and the comment reads “disputed lead, led 2 out, pushed along and headed approaching last, weakened inside final 110yds”. That is not the Galopin we know.
GAELIC WARRIOR makes the most compelling case across the key metrics. His T-1 of 216 from third in the King George at Kempton is the best last-run figure in the field by some margin. His GoingTPR of 132 leads the field, as does his TrackTPR of 131. The comments from Kempton read “took keen hold, prominent, challenging last, kept on well, just held” – beaten just a head in a race widely considered one of the best renewals in years. Patrick Mullins takes the ride, and if he can settle this keen type in the early stages, he has the ability to exploit any continued vulnerability in his stablemate.
FACT TO FILE’s T-1 of 196 from sixth in that King George is a strong figure, but the comment reveals problems: “took keen hold, towards rear but in touch, not fluent 5 out, no extra from 3 out”. He emptied out when it mattered. His GoingTPR of 131 and TrackTPR of 122 are both solid, and Mark Walsh rides, so he could bounce back at bigger prices.
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS retains respect as the dual Gold Cup winner. His GoingTPR of 124 is solid and his TrackTPR of 115 confirms Leopardstown holds no fears from a course perspective. Paul Townend remains loyal. The question is whether the Savills defeat was a blip or a sign of decline.
AFFORDALE FURY won the Savills when GALOPIN DES CHAMPS folded, posting a T-1 of 101 where he “led again approaching last, stayed on” to upset the champion. His TrackTPR of 101 matches that figure. For Noel Meade, this represents a chance to land another significant blow. SPINDLEBERRY has won five from five over fences and posted a T-1 of 156 at Doncaster, but zero TrackTPR means Leopardstown is an unknown.
The selection is GAELIC WARRIOR. He leads on T-1 (216), GoingTPR (132) and TrackTPR (131) – the three metrics that matter most for this race. The King George form is strong, and he arrives here fresher than Galopin Des Champs.
🎯SELECTION
5 GAELIC WARRIOR
Race 6: 16:05 Paddy Power Handicap Chase (Listed Race)
2m1f | Chase | Soft | 14 runners
Race Analysis
A competitive 2m1f handicap chase that requires careful navigation. The TPR hierarchy points clearly to the principals, and course form provides a useful edge.
ADDRAGOOLE commands the field’s top TPR at 30, and his T-1 of 166 from winning here last time out is joint-best in the field. That course victory provides the key form line – the comment notes he was “going easily when led last, hung left run-in, kept on well”, suggesting a horse who was full of running at the business end. His TrackTPR of 128 confirms Leopardstown suits admirably, while his GoingTPR of 115 suggests he handles cut in the ground. Claiming jockey Eoin Staples takes 5lb off, bringing him to an effective racing weight of 10st 1lb from an OR of 142.
JASKO DES DAMES has a TPR of 27 and his T-1 of 165 from finishing second at Cheltenham in December matches Addragoole’s figure. The comment reads “prominent, went second after 3 out, 4 lengths down last, weakened gradually run-in” – suggesting a horse who travels powerfully but may not quite see out his races in the deepest ground. His GoingTPR of 61 is notably lower than the selection’s. Darragh O’Keeffe takes the ride for De Bromhead.
WESTERN DIEGO (TPR 26) won at Fairyhouse last time with a T-1 of 113. The figure is modest compared to the other principals, but his GoingTPR of 89 and TrackTPR of 90 confirm he handles both conditions and this track. For Mullins with Brian Hayes aboard, he is the sort of reliable handicapper who rarely runs a bad race.
BALLYSAX HANK (TPR 24) showed promise when eighth here last time despite a T-1 of just 58 – the comment reveals he was “going easily 2 out, soon went fourth, no extra approaching last”. Something did not quite click that day, but his T-2 of 149 from winning at Fairyhouse in November shows the ability is there. His GoingTPR of just 10 is a concern.
JACOBS LADDER has a T-1 of 159 from winning at Navan on Soft to Heavy – the best last-run figure in the field. His GoingTPR of 113 confirms he handles cut. At bigger prices, he could outrun his odds.
The selection is ADDRAGOOLE. He won at this track last time, leads on TPR, has strong GoingTPR and TrackTPR figures, and the claim reduces his burden significantly.
🎯SELECTION
3 ADDRAGOOLE
Race 7: 16:40 Paddy Power Champion Bumper Trial (Grade 2)
2m | NH Flat | Soft | 7 runners
Race Analysis
The Day 2 finale – a Champion Bumper trial that could throw up a Cheltenham contender. The field of seven is select, and the TPR figures point clearly to one standout.
ITS ONLY A GAME holds the top TPR at 38 – more than double his nearest pursuer. His T-1 of 146 from winning at Punchestown on Soft to Heavy last time is the best last-run figure in the field, and the comment reveals a horse with tactical nous: “held up in rear, headway but short of room on inner under 2f out, squeezed through to lead 1f out, pushed out and went clear inside final furlong”. That is a performance of quality – waiting in behind, finding trouble, then accelerating away when daylight appeared. His T-2 of 129 confirms this was no fluke. Martin Brassil is operating at +30 on trainer momentum, which is a significant upturn. The concern is a GoingTPR of zero – he has never raced on truly soft ground despite that Punchestown win being on Soft to Heavy.
ROJUCO MAC offers the most credible opposition with a TPR of 16. His T-2 of 104 from winning at Naas in November is solid, and he followed up at Limerick. Crucially, he has the best GoingTPR in the field at 79, meaning he is the only one with proven form on ground with significant cut. Derek O’Connor’s booking for C Byrnes is significant – the amateur champion rarely rides bad horses, and his record in bumpers speaks for itself.
MOSSY WAY has the best TrackTPR in the field at 143 from a Leopardstown run, but was only fourth that day. His GoingTPR of zero is a concern.
CHARISMATIC KID (TPR 10) won at Navan on Soft to Heavy with a T-1 of 92, where he “made all, ridden over 2f out, went clear over 1f out – readily”. For Gordon Elliott with H C Swan in the saddle, he represents the yard’s best chance. BROADWAY TED won at Ayr on Heavy (T-1 87) but his GoingTPR shows as zero in our figures. GENEROUS RISK ran third here last time for Elliott with Patrick Mullins aboard – a significant booking that demands respect despite modest figures. WITH NOLIMIT made all to win at Fairyhouse on Good to Soft.
The selection is ITS ONLY A GAME. The TPR of 38 is comfortably clear of the field, the T-1 of 146 is the best last-run figure, and the trainer momentum is strongly positive. The ground is a slight unknown, but the class edge should tell.
🎯SELECTION
4 ITS ONLY A GAME
📋 Day 2 Summary: Selections at a Glance
| Race | Time | Selection |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:15 | SANTO SOSPIR (7) |
| 2 | 13:50 | NARCISO HAS (4) |
| 3 | 14:25 | STAFFORDSHIRE KNOT (1) |
| 4 | 14:55 | ROMEO COOLIO (2) |
| 5 | 15:30 | GAELIC WARRIOR (5) |
| 6 | 16:05 | ADDRAGOOLE (3) |
| 7 | 16:40 | ITS ONLY A GAME (4) |
Conclusion
That wraps up our coverage of the Dublin Racing Festival for 2026, a truly brilliant two-day Festival that gives us plenty to review in the coming weeks.
Through our partnership with Tote UK, we’ll be back next for the Cheltenham Festival 2026, the crown jewel in the National Hunt racing calendar!
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