Introduction
Friday evening brings a nine-race card from Meydan, the jewel in the crown of UAE racing. The programme offers variety across both turf and dirt surfaces, headlined by the Al Wasl Stakes, a Listed sprint that has attracted some high-class talent from the UK.
What makes UAE racing particularly interesting from an analytical perspective is the international nature of the fields. Many horses arrive having raced in Britain, Ireland, or further afield, meaning their form histories blend performances across different jurisdictions. A horse might have figures from Ascot one month and Meydan the next, which creates both opportunities and challenges when assessing relative ability.
Tonight’s card features several intriguing clashes between proven UAE performers and freshly-imported European talent. Our job is to separate genuine contenders from horses who may struggle to adapt, using data rather than reputation to guide the selections.
Let’s start by explaining how we approach that task.
Understanding Our Approach
Before diving into tonight’s card, it’s worth explaining the methodology behind these selections. At the heart of our analysis sits the TPR (Total Performance Rating), a machine learning-driven metric that synthesises a horse’s recent form, track and distance aptitude, going preferences, and breeding into a single predictive number.
Why do we trust it? Because the data backs it up. Across thousands of races in the UK, Ireland, and UAE:
- The top-rated horse on TPR wins 23% of races
- One of the top two wins 41% of races
- One of the top three wins 56% of races
- One of the top four wins 67% of races
Those percentages are powerful. They tell us that while the top-rated horse won’t always win, focusing our attention on the leading three or four on TPR captures the winner more often than not. It’s the starting point, not the ending point – we then stress-test those contenders against recent speed figures, form context, trainer momentum, and surface/going suitability.
Throughout these write-ups, you’ll see references to several key metrics:
- T-1, T-2, T-3 etc. – These are the horse’s class-adjusted EquiAnalytix Speed figures from their last five runs, with T-1 being the most recent. Think of them as speed figures that account for the quality of opposition and conditions faced.
- DistTPR – The horse’s average EquiAnalytix Speed rating at today’s distance, telling us whether they’re suited by the trip.
- GoingTPR – The horse’s average EquiAnalytix Speed on similar ground conditions.
- TrackTPR -The horse’s average EquiAnalytix Speed at this specific course.
- TrainerTPR (1m/12m) – How the trainer’s runners have been performing over the past month and past year respectively. A trainer with a 1-month figure significantly above their 12-month average is in hot form; significantly below suggests a yard out of sorts.
With that foundation in place, let’s work through tonight’s nine-race card.
Race 1 (17:30) – DP World Digital Technology
1900m | Turf | Good | 16 runners
Race Analysis
This opening contest on the Meydan turf is about as competitive as they come, with the top six on TPR separated by just 14 points. When we standardise the ratings to probability shares, no single horse commands more than 10%, a clear signal that this is wide open. Remember those statistics: in races this tight, the winner frequently comes from horses ranked second through fourth rather than the outright top-rated. SEAN (TPR 74) and ELJENOB (TPR 73) hold narrow leads, but the gaps are marginal.
REBAATT makes the most appeal when we apply our recency hierarchy. His T-1 of 110, achieved at Abu Dhabi just 20 days ago when finishing second, is comfortably the strongest recent figure among the leading contenders. ELJENOB’s T-1 of 98 and SEAN’s T-1 of 108 both fall short of that mark. The Michael Costa stable is performing solidly with a TrainerTPR of 71 over the past month, and Silvestre De Sousa, one of the most accomplished jockeys on the UAE circuit, takes the ride.
The concern with REBAATT is the inconsistency in his form sequence: that 110 sits alongside figures of 57 and 29 from his previous two runs. However, those came at Jebel Ali on fast ground, a surface he clearly doesn’t relish. Tonight’s good ground at Meydan is much more suitable based on his GoingTPR of 88. When this horse gets his conditions, he performs.
ELJENOB offers the alternative as a model of consistency. His last three class-adjusted figures read 98, 112, and 103, never spectacular but never poor. He’s the type who will run his race regardless, making him a solid inclusion for those constructing multiple selections. SEAN has strong course (TrackTPR of 112) and going credentials (GoingTPR of 111) but his recent figures of 108 and 63 suggest an inconsistent nine-year-old whose best days may be behind him.
The selection is REBAATT on the strength of that T-1 figure and the surface switch. ELJENOB is the obvious alternative for those wanting consistency over upside.
Race 2: 18:05 Mina Rashid
1600m | Dirt | Fast | 13 runners
Race Analysis
The switch to the dirt produces a fascinating puzzle with several lightly-raced types making their early-career appearances. BROTHERLY LOVE stands out on the figures with a TPR of 77, four points clear of NA EEM in second, and crucially has proven form on this surface. His last two Meydan dirt starts have yielded figures of 72 and 69, finishing second on both occasions. For a horse who was making only his third career start in October (a modest 32 on the UK all-weather), that adaptation to UAE dirt racing has been impressive.
The Jamie Osborne stable has a strong record in the UAE with a TrainerTPR of 87 over the past 12 months, well above the card average. The father-daughter combination with jockey Saffie Osborne has proven effective this winter, and BROTHERLY LOVE represents their strongest hand on tonight’s card. His sire Zoustar has a SireTPR of 76, suggesting the breeding is there for this surface.
The dangers are numerous but lack the form substance to inspire full confidence. NA EEM (TPR 68) has shown ability with figures of 68, 42, and 55 but nothing that screams winner. He’s been competitive without threatening to win in three Meydan starts. DOC HOLLIDAY’s form figures look strong on paper (T-1 of 80, T-2 of 105, T-3 of 92) but his most recent competitive runs appear to date from 2015, suggesting either an extended absence or data reporting issues. He’s one to watch rather than rely upon until we see what he produces on the night.
The selection is BROTHERLY LOVE as the most consistent performer with proven UAE dirt form and the best overall rating.
Race 3: 18:40 Jebel Ali Port
1400m | Turf | Good | 16 runners
Race Analysis
Three horses share top billing here: THE FINGAL RAVEN (TPR 77), MOLAQAB (TPR 76), and HALLASAN (TPR 75). But the choice between them becomes straightforward once you examine the recent figures in detail.
MOLAQAB is the standout selection. His T-1 of 138 from Abu Dhabi in November represents comfortably the best recent figure in the field, fully 17 points higher than THE FINGAL RAVEN’s T-1 of 121 and 47 points higher than HALLASAN’s T-1 of 91. What makes it even more impressive is that 138 came when finishing fourth, suggesting he encountered trouble in running or the race didn’t pan out for him. There could be even more to come.
The form prior adds depth: he won at Meydan in March with a class-adjusted figure of 122, and his DistTPR of 115 and GoingTPR of 115 confirm he handles these exact conditions. The Michael Costa stable is ticking over with a TrainerTPR of 71 for the month, and Silvestre De Sousa, already mentioned as one of the UAE’s elite, takes the ride.
THE FINGAL RAVEN brings solid figures from his UK summer campaign (121, 120, and a peak of 146 at Sandown) but hasn’t raced since August. Five months off is a concern at any track, let alone when adapting to new surroundings. HALLASAN, the Charlie Appleby representative, has excellent course metrics (GoingTPR of 112, DistTPR of 103) but his T-1 of 91 came when finishing 14th at Goodwood in August. That’s not the form line we want to be relying on, regardless of stable reputation.
The selection is MOLAQAB: the best recent figure by far, proven course form, and conditions to suit.
Race 4: 19:15 We One
1600m | Dirt | Fast | 16 runners
Race Analysis
A wide-open dirt contest where the leading contenders all have question marks. APOTHEOSIS heads the ratings on TPR 71 after a taking Newcastle all-weather win in December that yielded a class-adjusted figure of 139, but that was on a synthetic surface and this will be his first start on dirt. The Crisford stable sends him out with an excellent TrainerTPR of 89 for the month, but the surface adaptation question looms large. Dirt racing is a different discipline entirely.
ZANDVOORT makes more appeal as a horse who has already proven he handles Meydan’s dirt. He won here on December 12th with a class-adjusted figure of 105 (reflected in his T-1 of 104), and before that placed third at Jebel Ali twice with figures of 80 and 95. There’s nothing spectacular about those numbers, but they represent consistent capability on the surface he’ll face tonight. His DistTPR of 104 exactly matches tonight’s trip.
The Bhupat Seemar stable has a TrainerTPR of 61 (just slightly below average), but the form is building and you can see this horse is performing to a level that makes him competitive here. When you’re assessing horses for dirt racing, proven surface form trumps higher figures achieved elsewhere.
GUN CARRIAGE offers intrigue off a T-3 of 175 from an Irish win at Killarney in May, though his more recent figures of 100 (Meydan second) and 101 (Dundalk) suggest that peak may have been an outlier in a weak race. FORCE AND VALOUR posted 108 here on January 2nd when third, and the George Scott stable is in excellent form with a TrainerTPR of 109 for the month, making him the obvious alternative.
The selection is ZANDVOORT on proven Meydan dirt ability. FORCE AND VALOUR from the in-form George Scott yard is the danger.
Race 5: 19:50 Al Wasl Stakes Sponsored by DP World (Listed)
1200m | Turf | Good | 11 runners
Race Analysis
The feature race of the evening and the closest we have to a standout selection on the card. WORDS OF TRUTH is the class act, arriving with a T-1 of 173 from when finishing third in the Group 1 British Champions Sprint at Ascot in October. That was a seriously strong effort at the highest level against the best sprinters in Europe, and he emerged with enormous credit.
His form sequence prior reinforces the quality: 148 (winning a Newbury Listed race), 114 (Newmarket success), and 123 (Ascot handicap victory). This is a horse who has proven himself at the top level repeatedly. The DistTPR of 141 and GoingTPR of 147 suggest WORDS OF TRUTH has all the course and conditions credentials needed.
Charlie Appleby and William Buick need no introduction. The stable’s TrainerTPR of 106 is comfortably the best represented on tonight’s card. This is an operation performing at an elite level. When they send a horse of this calibre to a Listed race at Meydan, the intention is clear.
The dangers are legitimate but sit a tier below. HILITANY won twice at Windsor in the summer with figures of 135 and 146, establishing herself as a useful sprinter, but her most recent run produced just 91 at Newmarket when seventh against stronger opposition. That dropoff is a concern. MAXIMIZED, the other Appleby runner, won the Epsom Dash with a figure of 140 but has figures of 110 and 140 since without winning. He may be the stable’s second string, sent to ensure pace and provide options.
POSTMODERN is the wildcard off a monster T-2 of 192 from Yarmouth, but that was a weak maiden and context matters enormously. His Royal Ascot effort immediately after (T-1 of 72) was a complete flop against proper horses. At this level, proven Group-race form trumps exploded maidens.
The selection is WORDS OF TRUTH: the form figures, the connections, the conditions all align. This is the race to anchor any multiples around.
Race 6: 20:25 Lord North Handicap Sponsored by DP World
1800m | Turf | Good | 12 runners
Race Analysis
Three horses share ratings of 70/69 at the head of this handicap: FORT GEORGE, JEFF KOONS, and NATIVE AMERICAN. But a crucial detail helps separate them: JEFF KOONS and NATIVE AMERICAN are stablemates, both trained by Hamad Al Jehani. Understanding which horse the yard prioritises matters.
JEFF KOONS looks the stable’s first string based on peak ability. His T-2 of 187 from Goodwood in August (when second to a subsequent Group winner) and T-3 of 177 from Sandown represent figures significantly superior to anything else in this field. NATIVE AMERICAN’s best recent figure is a T-2 of 136, strong but 51 points below his stablemate’s peak.
The elephant in the room is JEFF KOONS’ T-1 of 0 from Sandown in late August when he finished 11th, beaten out of sight. However, the form comment confirms he was “unsuited by the soft going” and weakened quickly once the ground began to test him. Tonight’s good ground at Meydan is a world away from a rain-softened Sandown, and there’s every reason to expect a return to form.
NATIVE AMERICAN has the advantage of a recent Meydan win. He took the honours on December 12th with a figure of 90. But 90 is modest by his own historical standards (he has figures of 136 and 153 in his back catalogue), and it’s hard to argue he’s a better horse than JEFF KOONS when both are fit and well.
FORT GEORGE brings the strongest UK form overall with a T-2 of 186 from a dominant Newbury win and a T-3 of 147 from Goodwood. But he’s making his UAE debut after a three-month break, and the Ed Walker yard often needs a run to hit peak form. He could easily improve past this field but represents more risk tonight.
The selection is JEFF KOONS as the class horse in the race if bouncing back from unsuitable ground last time. NATIVE AMERICAN and FORT GEORGE are the obvious dangers.
Race 7: 21:00 DP World GCC
1200m | Dirt | Fast | 7 runners
Race Analysis
A small field simplifies matters considerably. Only three horses have any realistic chance: ECHO POINT (TPR 67), CATS BY FIVE (TPR 61), and DANYAH (TPR 61). The form gives a clear pointer.
ECHO POINT ticks every box for a race of this nature. He won at Meydan on November 21st with a class-adjusted figure of 119, then followed up with a solid second here on December 12th with a figure of 85. That’s a slight regression but still the most consistent recent sequence in the field. His T-2 and T-3 both sit at 118, suggesting a reliable 110-120 performer, exactly the level required to win a race like this.
The Musabbeh Al Mheiri stable is operating at a reasonable TrainerTPR of 61, and the horse’s TrackTPR of 112 confirms Meydan’s dirt suits him well. In a seven-runner field with limited depth, proven course form carries enormous weight.
CATS BY FIVE posted a T-1 of 130 at Jebel Ali on December 27th, which on paper looks threatening. However, that figure came when finishing fifth. Either the race was exceptionally competitive or something went wrong. Fifth place from a figure of 130 doesn’t quite add up and warrants caution. DANYAH has struggled recently with figures of 75 and 99, a long way short of her historical best of 127-129 from early last year.
The selection is ECHO POINT in a race that rewards backing the obvious. Races with small fields and one proven course-and-distance winner rarely produce upsets.
Race 8: 21:35 DP World Express
1000m | Turf | Good | 16 runners
Race Analysis
A five-furlong turf sprint where RESERVARDO stands out on the figures. His T-1 of 144 from Windsor in August was a strong effort (finished ninth but encountered trouble, edging left and hampering a rival before weakening). His T-2 of 132 from Lingfield tells a similar story, second place but short of room at a crucial stage. Most impressively, his T-4 of 181 from Redcar in June is the highest figure in the field by a considerable margin.
The Crisford operation has a TrainerTPR of 89 for the month, indicating the stable is in excellent form, and James Doyle is one of the premier jockeys in world racing. The concern is that RESERVARDO hasn’t raced since August and is making his UAE debut. However, his form at UK courses on good ground (GoingTPR of 133, DistTPR of 130) suggests he should handle Meydan’s turf without issue.
TOURIST offers the alternative as a horse who has proven form in the UAE already, fourth at Meydan on December 5th (77) and second at Jebel Ali (97). His T-3 of 103 from Sandown adds depth. The Doug Watson yard has a TrainerTPR of 54 for the month which isn’t inspiring, but the horse has shown enough locally to be competitive.
RAPPER’S DELIGHT won nicely at Southwell in September with a figure of 139 but that was on the all-weather against modest opposition. The step up to this level against proven international performers is significant. ARABIAN ANGEL bounced back with a T-1 of 107 winning at Sharjah on December 28th, which represents live recent form, though the level of that Sharjah contest is questionable.
The selection is RESERVARDO as the class horse in the field based on peak figures. The layoff is a concern but the talent is clear, and the Crisfords wouldn’t have brought him to the UAE without genuine expectations.
Race 9: 22:10 Mina Hamriya
1900m | Turf | Good | 16 runners
Race Analysis
The closing race of the evening and another competitive puzzle to solve. SILVER SWORD heads the figures on TPR 72 courtesy of his Meydan win on December 12th, where he posted a T-1 of 100. That’s a workmanlike figure rather than spectacular, but it’s proven winning form on tonight’s course, invaluable in a race where several rivals are making their local debuts.
The Dylan Cunha yard is operating at an impressive TrainerTPR of 89 for the month, significantly above their 12-month average of 82, suggesting current momentum. SILVER SWORD’s T-3 of 166 from Wolverhampton in November indicates there’s a bigger performance available if things fall right, though his T-2 of just 41 (sixth on the Meydan dirt the following week) shows the form can be surface-dependent. Tonight’s turf should suit.
CARRON arrives from the UK for George Boughey with Billy Loughnane in the saddle, a combination that’s been prolific this season with a TrainerTPR of 80. His Lingfield win in September yielded a figure of 116 (T-2), and while his Kempton run in December (89) was modest, the form comment confirmed the ground (soft) didn’t suit. First time on Meydan turf could spark significant improvement, making him interesting as an alternative.
MONAADAH has consistent if unspectacular recent figures of 86 and 86, suggesting he’ll run his race without necessarily winning. His GoingTPR of 89 confirms the ground suits. VALDIVIA won at Meydan in February with an impressive figure of 121, but that form is ten months old now and recent figures of 57 and 82 don’t inspire confidence that he’s retained that ability.
The selection is SILVER SWORD as the only horse combining recent Meydan turf winning form with figures in the right range. CARRON is the alternative for those who believe he’ll improve markedly on better ground.
📋 Selection Recap
Here are today’s bold selections across the 9 races at Meydan on Friday evening:
- Race 1 (17:30): Rebaatt (13)
- Race 2 (18:05): Brotherly Love (3)
- Race 3 (18:40): Molaqab (11)
- Race 4 (19:15): Zandvoort (4)
- Race 5 (19:50): Words Of Truth (6)
- Race 6 (20:25): Jeff Koons (8)
- Race 7 (21:00): Echo Point (2)
- Race 8 (21:35): Reservardo (6)
- Race 9 (22:10): Silver Sword (3)
These are the runners flagged in today’s write-ups as offering the strongest data case via EquiAnalytix Total Performance Ratings, recent speed figures, and course/ground suitability. Use them as the backbone for your Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta and exotic plays.
Conclusion
That wraps up our coverage of Friday evening at Meydan, a quality nine-race card headlined by the Al Wasl Stakes where Words Of Truth looks the standout selection of the night.
UAE racing offers a fascinating blend of proven local performers and freshly-imported European talent, and our data-driven approach helps cut through the noise. We’ll be back throughout the Dubai World Cup Carnival with more insights as the trail winds towards Super Saturday and the big night itself. Until then, stay disciplined, stay data-led, and keep making the most of the edge.
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