Introduction
It’s Fashion Friday at Meydan, and what a night we have in store. The Dubai World Cup Carnival kicks into a higher gear with the UAE 2000 Guineas taking centre stage, a Classic trial that regularly unearths future stars of the dirt division. This is proper racing under the lights.
What makes UAE racing particularly interesting from an analytical perspective is the international nature of the fields. Many horses arrive having raced in Britain, Ireland, or further afield, meaning their form histories blend performances across different jurisdictions. A horse might have figures from Newmarket one month and Meydan the next, which creates both opportunities and challenges when assessing relative ability.
For the Guineas itself, the puzzle is even more intriguing. We’re dealing with lightly-raced three-year-olds, some with just a handful of career starts, where breeding and trainer intent can matter as much as raw form figures. Separating the genuine Classic contenders from those here for the experience requires careful examination of the data.
Tonight’s card features several intriguing clashes between proven UAE performers and freshly-imported talent. Our job is to separate genuine contenders from horses who may struggle to adapt, using data rather than reputation to guide the selections.
Let’s start by explaining how we approach that task.
Understanding Our Approach
At the heart of our analysis sits the TPR (Total Performance Rating), a machine learning-driven metric that synthesises a horse’s recent form, track and distance aptitude, going preferences, and breeding into a single predictive number.
Why do we trust it? Because the data backs it up. Across thousands of races in the UK, Ireland, and UAE:
- The top-rated horse on TPR wins 23% of races
- One of the top two wins 41% of races
- One of the top three wins 56% of races
- One of the top four wins 67% of races
Those percentages are powerful. They tell us that while the top-rated horse won’t always win, focusing our attention on the leading three or four on TPR captures the winner more often than not. It’s the starting point, not the ending point. We then stress-test those contenders against recent speed figures, form context, trainer momentum, and surface/going suitability.
Throughout these write-ups, you’ll see references to several key metrics:
- T-1, T-2, T-3 etc. These are the horse’s class-adjusted EquiAnalytix Speed figures from their last five runs, with T-1 being the most recent. Think of them as speed figures that account for the quality of opposition and conditions faced.
- DistTPR The horse’s average EquiAnalytix Speed rating at today’s distance, telling us whether they’re suited by the trip.
- GoingTPR The horse’s average EquiAnalytix Speed on similar ground conditions.
- TrackTPR The horse’s average EquiAnalytix Speed at this specific course.
- TrainerTPR (1m/12m) How the trainer’s runners have been performing over the past month and past year respectively. A trainer with a 1-month figure significantly above their 12-month average is in hot form; significantly below suggests a yard out of sorts.
With that foundation in place, let’s work through tonight’s card.
Race 1: 17:30 Al Maktoum Challenge R2 (Group 2)
1900m | Dirt | Fast | 16 runners
Race Analysis
A competitive Group 2 to open proceedings, but the data points clearly in one direction. MURAAD heads the TPR ratings on 72 with a 9.8% probability share, and crucially backs that up with the metrics that matter most: a T-1 of 148, TrackTPR of 148, and GoingTPR of 148. When a horse leads on headline rating and also dominates the course-specific credentials, the case builds quickly.
The form string of 99811 tells an encouraging story. Two wins from his last three starts, with back-to-back victories suggesting a horse in the form of his life. The T-1 of 148 and T-2 of 136 represent high-class figures for this grade. Yes, there’s a T-3 of 42 buried in the sequence, but that’s three runs ago and he’s clearly moved past it. Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride.
FIRST CLASSS will attract attention for his exceptional historical figures: 135, 160, 157, 181, 162 across his last five starts. That depth of form is rare. However, recency matters. His form string reads 12130, ending with a beaten run last time. His TrackTPR of 89 pales against MURAAD’s 148, and the Doug Watson stable is running slightly cold with a TrainerTPR delta of -4. When a horse with superior recent form and proven course credentials is available, historical depth becomes a secondary consideration.
JOE STAR offers an interesting angle through jockey Ben Coen, whose 1-month TPR of 115 against a 12-month figure of 82 represents the best momentum swing on the card. The T-2 of 170 shows ability, but the form string of 08863 is too inconsistent for Group 2 confidence. AA RX BURN has placed in four of his last five but that’s the problem: he places rather than wins, and his T-2 of just 57 is a concern.
The selection is MURAAD. Best T-1, best course metrics, winning form. The puzzle pieces align.
Race 2: 18:05 Firebreak Stakes (Group 2)
1600m | Dirt | Fast | 7 runners
Race Analysis
A small but select field for this Group 2, and a genuine puzzle between proven Meydan form and superior figures from a raider. COMMISSIONER KING heads the TPR on 65 with a commanding 20.3% probability share, backed by excellent course credentials: TrackTPR of 119, DistTPR of 119, GoingTPR of 110. He won last time with a T-1 of 119 and his form string of 512 shows consistency. The Bhupat Seemar stable is running well with a +16 delta.
However, CROWN BOARD demands serious attention. His T-1 of 144 is 25 points clear of anything else in this field, and the depth is remarkable: 144, 136, 121, 155, 162 across his last five starts. That’s five consecutive runs at 121 or higher, the kind of consistency that wins Group races. The form string of 96141 shows he’s winning, and crucially the Jane Chapple-Hyam stable is the story of the card with a trainer delta of +29. When a yard is running that hot and sends a horse with clearly superior figures to a Group 2, they’re confident he’ll handle conditions.
The concern with CROWN BOARD is obvious: no TrackTPR or GoingTPR, meaning this is his first experience of Meydan’s dirt surface. That’s a genuine unknown. But Hollie Doyle takes the ride, and the combination of best T-1, exceptional figure depth, and standout trainer momentum is difficult to oppose.
FORT PAYNE has solid historical figures (130, 120, 133) but his T-1 of just 83 and form string ending in 8 suggests he’s not at his best right now. The trainer delta of -71 is alarming. MESHTRI’s T-1 of 3 rules him out despite earlier promise.
The selection is CROWN BOARD. The figure gap over COMMISSIONER KING is too significant to ignore, and the trainer momentum provides additional confidence. COMMISSIONER KING is the obvious danger with his proven course form.
Race 3: 18:40 Al Fahidi Fort (Group 2)
1400m | Turf | Good | 15 runners
Race Analysis
A quality Group 2 on the turf with several high-class European raiders, and the data presents a fascinating puzzle between proven course form and superior figures. MYSTERIOUS NIGHT heads the TPR on 73 with excellent Meydan credentials: TrackTPR of 133, GoingTPR of 128, DistTPR of 132. The Appleby/Buick combination needs no introduction, and his form string of 11221 shows he’s been first or second in all five career starts. The concern is a T-1 of just 99, his lowest recent figure.
LETHAL LEVI makes a compelling case on raw speed figures. His T-1 of 138 is 39 points clear of MYSTERIOUS NIGHT, and the depth is remarkable: 138, 136, 135, 163, 173. Five consecutive runs at 135 or higher represents exceptional consistency at a high level. The Karl Burke stable runs at +13 for the month, matching Appleby’s momentum. The unknown is a TrackTPR of 0, meaning this is his Meydan debut, but Burke doesn’t travel horses to Group 2s without confidence they’ll handle conditions.
AUDIENCE offers intriguing each-way value with a monster T-3 of 206 suggesting serious ability, but the form string of 39353 shows a horse who places without winning. That’s frustrating in a Group 2 where you need to be winning. YAROOGH has the second-best T-1 at 143 but his form string of 19127 ending in 7 is concerning, and his figure sequence is too erratic.
CHICAGO CRITIC warrants mention through jockey Ben Coen, whose +33 delta is the best on the card. The Murtagh yard is also +21 for the month. His T-3 of 186 and T-4 of 182 show past ability but recent figures of 115 and 73 suggest he’s not at peak form.
The selection is LETHAL LEVI. The figure gap over MYSTERIOUS NIGHT is too significant to ignore, and the consistency of five runs all at 135+ is exceptional. MYSTERIOUS NIGHT is the obvious danger with his proven course credentials and elite connections.
Race 4: 19:15 Al Shindagha Sprint (Group 2)
1200m | Dirt | Fast | 6 runners
Race Analysis
A small field simplifies this Group 2 dirt sprint considerably. EL NASSEEB commands the data with a TPR of 70 and a 21.9% probability share, significantly clear of MUFASA (56) in second. When a horse leads by this margin in a six-runner field, the case needs to be compelling to oppose.
EL NASSEEB‘s form string tells the story: 30111. Three wins from his last four starts, with a peak T-3 of 156 that towers over this field. His course credentials are excellent: TrackTPR of 105, GoingTPR of 109, DistTPR of 103. He handles Meydan’s dirt at this trip and arrives in winning form. Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride.
DREW’S GOLD will attract attention through his T-1 of 136 and the William Buick booking. However, look deeper at the figures: T-2 of 16 and T-3 of 12 are disastrous. One good run amongst several poor ones doesn’t make a reliable selection, and the form string of 3901 confirms the inconsistency. The Seemar stable is running well at +16 for the month, but the data doesn’t support DREW’S GOLD over the clear leader.
DARK SAFFRON has the second-best TrackTPR at 92 and was winning earlier in his career (form 11175), but his T-1 of 46 and 5th last time suggest he’s regressing. MORNING has a monster T-3 of 182 buried in his form but recent figures of 39 and 72 rule him out.
The selection is EL NASSEEB. Best TPR, best course metrics, winning form. This looks relatively straightforward in a small field.
Race 5: 19:50 Blue Point Sprint (Group 2)
1000m | Turf | Good | 11 runners
Race Analysis
A quality renewal of this Group 2 turf sprint, and one horse demands immediate attention despite sitting fifth in the ratings. DEMOCRACY DILEMMA has a T-1 of 188 and T-2 of 218. Those figures are in a completely different stratosphere to anything else in this field. When this horse produces his best, he’s operating at a level his rivals simply cannot match.
However, form string 57613 tells the other side of the story. Fifth, seventh, sixth, first, third. One win and one place from five runs. When DEMOCRACY DILEMMA fires, he wins. When he doesn’t, he’s nowhere. The T-3, T-4, T-5 figures of 54, 66, 83 confirm the inconsistency. The Robert Cowell yard is +16 for the month, which adds some confidence, but backing a horse this erratic in Group 2 company is a risk.
WEST ACRE offers the safer profile. He leads the TPR on 70 with a 13.6% probability share, and crucially dominates the course metrics: TrackTPR of 134, GoingTPR of 134, DistTPR of 123. Those figures are 13 points clear of the next best. His T-1 of 138 and T-2 of 148 represent solid Group 2 figures, and the George Scott stable is running well at +11 for the month. The concern is form string 80824, lots of placed efforts without winning, but at this level proven course form carries significant weight.
COVER UP won last time with a form string of 60141 and has William Buick in the saddle. His T-3 of 168 shows ability, and TrackTPR of 121 confirms he handles Meydan. SPARTAN ARROW won last time with a T-1 of 157 but has no Meydan experience (TrackTPR 0), a concern at Group 2 level.
The selection is WEST ACRE. Best overall rating, exceptional course credentials, trainer in form. DEMOCRACY DILEMMA is the obvious wildcard if his brilliance shows up, but the consistency issues make him difficult to trust as a primary selection.
Race 6: 20:25 Al Maktoum Challenge R1 (Group 1)
1900m | Dirt | Fast | 9 runners
Race Analysis
The first Group 1 of the evening, and the Bhupat Seemar stable dominates with six of the nine runners. Three of those sit at the head of the market: WALK OF STARS and HEART OF HONOR share TPR 65, with ARTORIUS (64) and IMPERIAL EMPEROR (57) close behind. Separating them requires careful examination of the figures.
IMPERIAL EMPEROR demands serious attention despite sitting fourth in the ratings. His T-1 of 131 is 39 points clear of the next best. More significantly, his DistTPR of 148 towers over this field, 29 points clear of WALK OF STARS in second. When a horse dominates the distance-specific metric by this margin in a Group 1, that’s a powerful signal. His peak figures of 131, 139, 148, and 164 are genuine Group 1 level. The T-2 of 8 is clearly an outlier, a race that went wrong, but ignoring that single run leaves four figures all at 131 or higher. He won last time with a form string of 12101.
WALK OF STARS has the best TrackTPR at 120 and solid figure depth (84, 127, 162, 141, 127), but his T-1 of just 84 is concerning for Group 1 company. His form string of 21143 shows consistency, and the Seemar stable is +16 for the month, but the recent figure doesn’t suggest he’s peaking right now.
HEART OF HONOR arrives with form string 22211, three wins and two seconds from five starts. The trajectory is encouraging. However, his figures of 92, 97, 113, 96, 115 are relatively modest for Group 1 level. The best figure of 115 is 33 points below IMPERIAL EMPEROR’s T-1. ARTORIUS has William Buick but form string 33422 shows a horse who places without winning.
The selection is IMPERIAL EMPEROR. The T-1 and DistTPR advantages are too significant to ignore at Group 1 level, where peak figures matter. WALK OF STARS is the danger with his proven Meydan form.
Race 7: 21:00 Jebel Hatta (Group 1)
1800m | Turf | Good | 6 runners
Race Analysis
A select field of six for this prestigious Group 1 on the turf, with the Appleby stable holding a strong hand through OPERA BALLO and NATIONS PRIDE. However, the data presents a compelling case for the Karl Burke raider.
HOLLOWAY BOY arrives with figure consistency that demands respect: 117, 166, 162, 105, 121. Four of his last five runs have produced figures of 105 or higher, and that T-2 of 166 and T-3 of 162 represent genuine Group 1 level. More significantly, his course metrics lead this field: GoingTPR of 134 (23 points clear of OPERA BALLO), TrackTPR of 120, DistTPR of 122. When a horse leads on all three condition-specific metrics in a Group 1, that’s a powerful signal. The Burke yard is +13 for the month, matching Appleby’s momentum.
OPERA BALLO heads the TPR on 70 with a 24.2% probability share, and the Appleby/Buick combination commands respect. His form string of 61121 shows he’s winning, and that T-3 of 178 demonstrates genuine Group 1 ability. However, his recent figures of 115 and 97 are modest by comparison, and his course metrics lag HOLLOWAY BOY across the board. The T-5 of 66 also hints at inconsistency.
SILAWI has a freakish T-1 of 201 that catches the eye immediately. However, form string 51051 tells the story of a horse who is either brilliant or nowhere. That T-3 of just 25 confirms the inconsistency. In Group 1 company, reliability matters. James Doyle is a quality booking but the data doesn’t support him as a primary selection.
NATIONS PRIDE has the best TrackTPR (125) and DistTPR (125) but his T-1 of 103 is below the principals, and form string 13102 ending in a 2 suggests he’s not quite at his peak.
The selection is HOLLOWAY BOY. Superior course metrics across the board, excellent figure consistency, and a trainer running just as hot as Appleby. OPERA BALLO is the obvious danger with the winning form string and elite connections.
Race 8: 21:35 UAE 2000 Guineas (Group 3)
1600m | Dirt | Fast | 16 runners
Race Analysis
The feature race of Fashion Friday and a fascinating Classic trial. With lightly-raced three-year-olds, the analysis differs from the established handicappers earlier on the card. Many runners have just one to three career starts, meaning breeding angles and trainer intent carry significant weight alongside the form figures.
DEVON ISLAND heads the TPR on 76 with a 10.1% probability share, nine points clear of RAAJEHH in second. That commanding lead matters, but the supporting data builds the case further. His TrackTPR of 93 proves he handles Meydan’s dirt, and his SireGoingTPR of 74 suggests the breeding suits the surface. Form string 211, two wins and a second from three starts, is exactly what you want to see from a Classic contender. The Charlie Appleby stable is +13 for the month and sends William Buick, their first-choice jockey. When Appleby targets a Classic trial with this level of intent, they’re confident.
SIX SPEED presents the data-led alternative. His T-1 of 105 and T-2 of 110 are superior to DEVON ISLAND‘s 92 and 94. The Bhupat Seemar stable is actually running hotter at +16 for the month. Form string 311 shows two wins from three starts. However, his SireGoingTPR of just 28 is concerning for a dirt Classic, and his TrackTPR of 82 trails DEVON ISLAND‘s 93.
SENATOR OF STATE has the best single figure with a T-1 of 122, but his T-2 of 60 and T-3 of 42 suggest that was an outlier. One good run doesn’t make a Classic winner. LEGALAIZED has exceptional dirt breeding with SireTPR and SireGoingTPR both at 100, and his TrackTPR of 99 from just one run is impressive. But a single career start heading into a Classic trial is a significant unknown. James Doyle is a quality booking.
RAAJEHH won his only start but TPR of 67 and just one run to assess makes him difficult to support with confidence.
The selection is DEVON ISLAND. Best TPR, proven Meydan dirt form, superior breeding for the surface, and the Appleby/Buick combination targeting a Classic. SIX SPEED is the obvious danger on superior recent figures.
Race 9: 22:10 Al Khail Trophy
2810m | Turf | Good | 8 runners
Race Analysis
The marathon that closes Fashion Friday, and the Simon & Ed Crisford stable holds a strong hand with both MEYDAAN (TPR 74) and WEST WIND BLOWS (TPR 67). Understanding which one the yard prioritises becomes the key to solving this race.
MEYDAAN heads the ratings and has the proven Meydan form: TrackTPR of 96, GoingTPR of 144, and he won last time with form string 05231. His figures of 96, 161, 163, 152, 104 show consistent depth. James Doyle takes the ride. On paper, the top-rated horse with course form who won last time looks the obvious selection.
However, WEST WIND BLOWS has figures that simply tower over this field. His T-1 of 156 is 60 points clear of MEYDAAN’s 96. More significantly, his T-2 of 196 and T-4 of 197 represent elite-level figures that nothing else in this race can match. When a horse has produced 196 and 197 in recent runs, that’s a different calibre of performer. The TrackTPR of 0 means this is his Meydan debut, but the form string of 91622 shows he’s competitive at a high level.
The jockey allocation tells the story. When Crisford runs two and puts William Buick on WEST WIND BLOWS rather than the top-rated MEYDAAN with James Doyle, that’s a significant signal. Buick is the stable’s first-choice jockey. The yard is showing their hand.
EPIC POET has the best TrackTPR at 113 but his T-1 of 111 and form string of 33202 suggest a horse who places without winning. NIGHTWALKER has a T-4 of 180 showing past ability but recent figures of 79 and 103 are modest.
The selection is WEST WIND BLOWS. The figure gap over this field is too significant to ignore, and the Buick booking over the stablemate confirms stable intent. MEYDAAN is the obvious danger with his proven course form and winning record.
📋 Selection Recap
Here are tonight’s selections across the nine races at Fashion Friday, Meydan:
- Race 1 (17:30): Muraad (2)
- Race 2 (18:05): Crown Board (5)
- Race 3 (18:40): Lethal Levi (4)
- Race 4 (19:15): El Nasseeb (2)
- Race 5 (19:50): West Acre (1) & Democracy Dilemma (3)
- Race 6 (20:25): Imperial Emperor (2)
- Race 7 (21:00): Holloway Boy (3)
- Race 8 (21:35): Devon Island (5)
- Race 9 (22:10): West Wind Blows (5)
Conclusion
That wraps up our coverage of Fashion Friday at Meydan, a quality nine-race card headlined by the UAE 2000 Guineas. Tonight’s selections have been driven by the methodology: T-1 figures with recency hierarchy, condition-specific metrics, and trainer momentum.
Two yards stand out on tonight’s card. Karl Burke (TrainerTPR +13) sends LETHAL LEVI and HOLLOWAY BOY with figures that consistently outperform their rivals. Jane Chapple-Hyam (+29) with CROWN BOARD represents the standout trainer momentum on the entire card. Charlie Appleby (+13) targets the UAE 2000 Guineas with DEVON ISLAND, and when that operation sends Buick to a Classic trial, they mean business.
The strongest selection of the night is EL NASSEEB in the Al Shindagha Sprint. Best TPR, best course metrics, three wins from four starts, small field. The puzzle pieces align completely.
The Dubai World Cup Carnival continues to build momentum as we head towards Super Saturday and the big night itself. Until then, stay disciplined, stay data-led, and keep making the most of the edge.d, stay data-led, and keep making the most of the edge.
Get the Full Data in Our App
Access every racecard, live analytics and the complete blog on your phone: