Introduction
Welcome back to Meydan. The Dubai World Cup Carnival continues to build momentum, and tonight’s card offers another quality eight-race programme under the floodlights. For those following our UAE coverage, the data-led approach continues to cut through the noise at one of the most internationally diverse meetings on the racing calendar.
For anyone new to these blogs, we use the EquiAnalytix ratings, speed figures and historical insights to highlight the key contenders at every meeting we cover. Our aim is simple: identify where the value sits and give you the tools to make informed decisions.
Understanding Our Approach
Before we dive into tonight’s card, a quick note for new readers. We are currently working on a brand new guide page that will be live on our website soon, detailing far more information on how to use the ratings and how they are created. But here is a brief overview for the purpose of this blog.
At the heart of our analysis sits the TPR (Total Performance Rating), a machine learning-driven metric that synthesises a horse’s recent form, track and distance aptitude, going preferences, and breeding into a single predictive number.
Why do we trust it? Because the data backs it up. Across thousands of races in the UK, Ireland, and UAE:
- The top-rated horse on TPR wins 23% of races
- One of the top two wins 41% of races
- One of the top three wins 56% of races
- One of the top four wins 67% of races
Those percentages are powerful. They tell us that while the top-rated horse won’t always win, focusing our attention on the leading three or four on TPR captures the winner more often than not. It’s the starting point, not the ending point. We then stress-test those contenders against recent speed figures, form context, trainer momentum, and surface/going suitability.
Throughout these write-ups, you’ll see references to several key metrics:
- T-1, T-2, T-3 etc. These are the horse’s class-adjusted EquiAnalytix Speed figures from their last five runs, with T-1 being the most recent. Think of them as speed figures that account for the quality of opposition and conditions faced.
- DistTPR The horse’s average EquiAnalytix Speed rating at today’s distance, telling us whether they’re suited by the trip.
- GoingTPR The horse’s average EquiAnalytix Speed on similar ground conditions.
- TrackTPR The horse’s average EquiAnalytix Speed at this specific course.
- TrainerTPR (1m/12m) How the trainer’s runners have been performing over the past month and past year respectively. A trainer with a 1-month figure significantly above their 12-month average is in hot form; significantly below suggests a yard out of sorts.
- Trainer Momentum compares a trainer’s 1-month performance against their 12-month average. A positive number (like +19) means the yard is running hot right now. A negative number (like -12) suggests they are out of form. This matters more than most punters realise.
Tonight we will work through each race systematically, applying this framework to identify the standout selections. The Dubai World Cup Carnival attracts top-class horses from Europe, America and beyond. Let us see where the value sits.
Race 1: 17:30 Jumeirah Guineas Trial Sponsored by DP World
1600m | Turf | Good | 11 runners
A competitive conditions race opens the card, and the data points towards proven Meydan form being the key differentiator. Three horses emerge from the figures with genuine claims, setting up an intriguing exacta and trifecta puzzle.
TITLE ROLE gets the vote on conditions credentials. His GoingTPR of 141 is the best in the field by some distance. To put that in context, GoingTPR measures how well a horse has performed on this surface historically, and anything above 120 is considered strong. At 141, TITLE ROLE has demonstrated he handles turf better than any of these rivals. He also brings a TrackTPR of 100, which confirms he handles Meydan’s unique demands, having run well here before.
His peak T-3 figure of 181 is exceptional. Speed figures generally sit between 50 and 160 for most horses, so 181 is the kind of number that wins Group races. That was posted two runs back, and while his more recent figures (T-1 of 100, T-2 of 115) are more modest, they still show solid form. The form string of 213 reads well: two wins and a second from three career starts for Simon and Ed Crisford. James Doyle takes the ride.
TREANOR shares top billing on TPR at 74 and brings the Charlie Appleby and William Buick combination. When Appleby sends one to Meydan with Buick aboard, they mean business. The trainer is running +7 for the month, meaning his horses are performing 7 points above their 12-month average, while Buick is at +9. Those positive momentum figures tell us both trainer and jockey are in form right now. The speed figures are more modest (T-1 of 91, T-2 of 101, T-3 of 116) but show incremental improvement with each start, which is exactly what you want to see from a lightly-raced horse. Form of 154 suggests he is still learning his trade.
SWORD MAKER has figures that scream winner. His T-1 of 109 is the best recent figure among the principals, meaning his most recent run was faster than what TITLE ROLE or TREANOR have shown lately. He also has serious depth with T-2 of 149 and T-4 of 155, numbers that would win most handicaps comfortably. Form of 01311 includes two wins from the last three starts. The concern is that Saeed bin Suroor is running colder for the month. That is a negative, meaning his horses are running below their long-term average. When a yard is that cold, even good horses underperform. The ability is clearly there, but backing him requires a leap of faith that the stable form turns around tonight.
Race 2: 18:05 Jafza Logistics Park
1600m | Dirt | Fast | 16 runners
A 16-runner maiden on the dirt presents a puzzle with many unraced or lightly-raced types. When the data is thin, proven ability and hot connections carry extra weight.
NATIONAL HISTORY stands out as one of the few runners with meaningful race experience. His TPR of 77 leads the field by 14 points. In a competitive handicap, the top horses might be separated by just 2-3 points on TPR, so a 14-point gap tells us NATIONAL HISTORY has demonstrated significantly more ability than anything else in this race.
The speed figures reinforce the case. His T-2 of 136 (the figure from his second most recent run) is the best single number in the entire race by a considerable margin. For context, figures above 130 are strong enough to be competitive in open handicap company. While his T-1 of 58 shows a below-par effort last time (anything below 80 is considered poor), horses can bounce back, and that T-2 proves the class is there when conditions suit. He is also the only runner with proven Meydan form worth noting, having posted a TrackTPR of 58 at the track previously. That experience matters when most rivals are arriving blind.
Charlie Appleby (+7 trainer momentum) and William Buick (+9 jockey momentum) need no introduction at the Carnival. Those positive numbers tell us both trainer and jockey are running above their long-term averages right now. When this combination targets a maiden, they expect to win. Form of 523 suggests a horse finding his feet, and tonight could be the night it all clicks.
The value alternative is SALLOOM from the Bhupat Seemar yard. While he appears unraced in the official form, his trial on 7th January produced a figure of 112 when winning. Trials are unofficial races used to assess horses before they run competitively, and a figure of 112 from a trial is impressive. It suggests genuine ability that the market may not fully appreciate.
Crucially, Seemar is the form trainer of the Carnival, running at +19 for the month. That is an exceptional number, meaning his horses are performing nearly 20 points above their long-term average. When a yard is running that hot, something is clicking, and even their unexposed runners demand respect. Tadhg O’Shea takes the ride.
DOC HOLLIDAY has the most consistent figures among the exposed runners (five runs all between 80-105) but his form of 66333 tells its own story. He has never finished better than third in five career starts. A placer, not a winner.
Race 3: 18:40 Mawj Stakes Sponsored by DP World
1400m | Turf | Good | 15 runners
Race 3 looks one of the more straightforward puzzles on the card. One horse ticks every single box in the methodology.
DANCE TO THE MUSIC is the clear standout. Her TPR of 77 leads the field, but the real story is in the figure trajectory. Her last three speed figures read: T-1 of 120, T-2 of 128, T-3 of 138. That sequence is significant because figures above 120 are considered strong for this level, and she has been consistently posting them.
Her GoingTPR of 120 is best in the race, confirming she handles turf well. That measure tells us how she has performed on this surface historically, and 120 is a strong number. Form of 117 includes two wins from three career starts. The 7th last time might give pause at first glance, but she still posted a figure of 120 in defeat, which is better than most of this field’s best ever efforts. Sometimes a horse runs well but just gets beaten by a better one on the day.
Charlie Appleby (+7) and William Buick (+9) complete the picture. When the data and the connections both align this strongly, the conclusion writes itself.
MISS YECHANCE has the best TrackTPR at 97, proving she handles Meydan, and her peak figures are exceptional. Her T-5 of 189 is the kind of number that wins at the highest level. But that figure was five runs ago, which is a long time in racing terms. The T-5 designation tells us that peak came some time back, and nothing in the recent form suggests she can find those heights again tonight. Her trainer momentum is also flat, giving us no reason to expect improvement.
TRUE TEST and CALLAHAN both have figures to recommend them on their day, but their most recent runs were poor. TRUE TEST posted a T-1 of 100, which is below average, while CALLAHAN managed just 27, which is dreadful. When horses regress that sharply, they need forgiving, and there is no obvious reason to expect a bounce back tonight.
This should be straightforward. DANCE TO THE MUSIC is odds-on for a reason.
Race 4: 19:15 Jafza
2000m | Dirt | Fast | 16 runners
A 16-runner handicap on the dirt where the UK raiders look to have a strong hand. Trainer momentum is the key angle to follow here.
ANTRIM arrives from Karl Burke’s yard with a compelling profile. The form string of 73114 tells you everything you need to know. He won twice at Newcastle before shipping to Dubai. That is the form of a horse in the groove, running into form at exactly the right time for a Carnival raid.
The figures back it up. His T-1 of 126 is second best in the race, which tells us his most recent performance was faster than nearly all of these rivals. But what impresses most is the consistency across his last five runs: 126, 101, 134, 101, 105. That is five consecutive figures all at 100 or above. In handicap racing, you often see horses swing wildly between 70 and 130 depending on the day. Five figures all above 100 suggests a horse you can rely on to turn up and run his race every time.
Burke is running at +18 for the month, the best UK trainer momentum on the card. That tells us his horses are performing 18 points above their long-term average, which is significant. When Burke travels to Meydan with a horse in winning form, he means business. The only question is first-time at Meydan (his TrackTPR is 0, meaning no previous track form to assess), but the trainer angle and winning form override that concern. Sam James takes the ride.
CITY OF DELIGHT has the best T-1 at 144, which on paper is the standout recent figure in the race. But context matters. His form of 11209 shows clear regression, going from winning to finishing ninth last time. And trainer David Menuisier is running at -20, meaning his horses are significantly underperforming their long-term average. When the trainer momentum is that negative and the form is going backwards, even the best figures become hard to trust.
BASE NOTE offers the Meydan-proven alternative. His TrackTPR of 98 is best in the race, proving he handles this track better than any rival. His GoingTPR of 116 confirms he handles dirt well. The figure depth is there too, with T-2 of 138 and T-5 of 162 showing he has posted big numbers in the past. The concern is Simon and Ed Crisford running cold at -12 for the month. If you want the course-and-distance specialist over the UK raider, he is the one to consider, but the trainer form gives pause.
SHEPPERTON LODGE represents Bhupat Seemar (+19) and has Meydan form, but the figures (T-1 of 90, which is below average) are below the principals.
Race 5: 19:50 Dubai Sprint Sponsored by DP World
1200m | Turf | Good | 14 runners
A quality handicap on the turf with proven Meydan performers stepping up to six furlongs. Context matters here, and one horse’s recent form deserves a second look beneath the surface.
WEST ACRE is our pick at what should be a price. The form string of 80824 looks like a placer at first glance, with plenty of placed efforts without winning. But dig into the last run and the picture changes entirely.
Last time over five furlongs, he badly missed the break. Despite being compromised from the start, losing lengths when the gates opened, he still got up for fourth and posted a T-1 of 138 with his best work coming late. That is a strong figure achieved despite significant trouble in running. It suggests he was never winning from that position but ran a huge race in defeat. His T-2 of 148 from the run before confirms the class is there. Figures above 140 are the kind that win good handicaps.
The step up to six furlongs tonight is significant. If he gets a cleaner break, he has time to recover and organise. That finishing kick should be even more effective over the extra furlong. His TrackTPR of 134 and GoingTPR of 134 prove he handles Meydan and this turf surface. Those are strong numbers that tell us he has performed well here before. Billy Loughnane (+4 jockey momentum) takes the ride for George Scott (+2). At the prices, he represents value.
SYMBOL OF HONOUR has the best TPR at 76 and a peak T-3 figure of 172, the best in the race by some margin. That 172 is an exceptional number that would be competitive at Group level. Appleby and Buick is always a powerful combination. But the 8 last time is a significant concern. He finished eighth, beaten off, and posted a T-1 of just 100. That is a 72-point drop from his peak. When horses regress that sharply in a single run, it suggests something went wrong, and gives big question marks on what to expect next.
TWO TRIBES won last time and brings the best TrackTPR at 140, proving he handles Meydan better than anything else here. That is an important edge. His T-1 of 140 is strong, and there is depth with T-2 of 148 and T-3 of 141 in the sequence. But form of 14051 includes some poor efforts (a 0, meaning pulled up or failed to complete, and a 5) that suggest inconsistency. He could easily bounce be at his best or run another poor race. Hard to trust in this quality company.
ARABIE represents Karl Burke (+18) and has good figure depth, but the T-1 of 134 is below the principals and he finished third last time.
Race 6: 20:25 Dubai Millennium Stakes
2000m | Turf | Good | 7 runners
A small but select field of seven runners, and an Appleby versus Appleby showdown at the head of the market. When the same yard saddles two runners with contrasting profiles, the data becomes the tiebreaker.
ARABIAN LIGHT has the figures here which is in contrast to the market. His T-1 of 151 is 40 points clear of stablemate BY THE BOOK (111). To understand that gap, consider that in most races the top few horses might be separated by 10-15 points on their recent figures. A 40-point margin is enormous. It tells us that in his most recent start, ARABIAN LIGHT ran significantly faster than his stablemate did in his.
The TrackTPR of 135 is also best, some 24 points clear of BY THE BOOK. TrackTPR measures how well a horse has performed at this specific track historically, and 135 is a strong number that confirms ARABIAN LIGHT handles Meydan better than anything else in this field. He won last time out, and the figure depth across his recent starts (151, 135, 127, 130) shows consistency at a high level. All four of those figures are above 125, which is strong. Billy Loughnane takes the ride.
BY THE BOOK does however have William Buick aboard, which always demands respect. When Appleby has two runners and puts Buick on one, that is usually the stable signal, the booking that tells you which horse the yard fancies most. But here the data says otherwise. His T-1 of 111 and TrackTPR of 111 are significantly below his stablemate. Those 111s are decent but not exceptional, and the gap to ARABIAN LIGHT is simply too wide. Form of 131 is cleaner, with two wins from three, but the figure gap is what matters. Sometimes the jockey booking does not override the numbers, and this feels like one of those nights.
FORT GEORGE and CRYSTAL BLACK have exceptional peak figures buried in their history. FORT GEORGE has a T-2 of 186, while CRYSTAL BLACK has a T-4 of 208. Those are outstanding numbers that would win almost any race. But T-2 means two runs ago, and T-4 means four runs ago. Those peaks came some time back, and recent form shows regression. They are not the horses they were when posting those numbers.
Race 7: 21:00 DP World Logistics
1600m | Dirt | Fast | 16 runners
A competitive 16-runner handicap on the dirt where Bhupat Seemar holds a strong hand with four runners. Identifying the stable pick is the key to unlocking this race.
THE CAMDEN COLT stands out as the clear pick from the Seemar team. His T-1 of 143 is best in the race. No other horse has posted a figure above 140 recently. That tells us his most recent performance was better than anything else here has managed, which is exactly the edge we want to focus on.
What impresses most is the consistency. His last five speed figures read: 143, 100, 113, 123, 125. That is five consecutive runs all at 100 or above. In handicap racing, figures below 100 are considered modest and above 120 is strong. THE CAMDEN COLT has not dipped below 100 in five starts, which tells us there are no holes in the form, no disasters to explain away. He turns up and runs his race every time. That reliability is valuable.
The conditions metrics support the selection. His TrackTPR of 119 proves he handles Meydan, having run well here before. His GoingTPR of 119 confirms the dirt surface is no issue. Both of those 119s are solid numbers that give us confidence he will handle tonight’s conditions. When you combine that profile with Seemar running at +19 for the month (the best trainer momentum of any yard with multiple runners tonight), you have the complete package. Form of 22132 shows he was second last time having won one back, so he is knocking on the door. Tadhg O’Shea takes the ride.
TELEMARK has the best TPR at 70 and William Buick takes the ride, a combination that always demands respect at Meydan. His GoingTPR of 128 is best in the race, meaning he has historically performed well on dirt. He is Meydan proven with a TrackTPR of 118. But the Crisford yard is running cold at -12 for the month, meaning their horses are underperforming. And form of 64913 is inconsistent. Note the T-3 of 0 in his sequence, suggesting a complete no-show three runs back. When a horse has that kind of form hole, you wonder what went wrong and whether it could happen again. The jockey booking alone is not enough when the trainer form and figure consistency point elsewhere.
ZANDVOORT won last time for Seemar but the figures (104, 80, 94) are below his stablemate. All three of those are modest numbers that would not be competitive against THE CAMDEN COLT. FLIGHT PLAN represents Karl Burke (+18) but form of 19655 shows fifth in his last two starts, which is not the profile we want.
Race 8: 21:35 Dubai Auto Market
1600m | Turf | Good | 16 runners
The card closes with a competitive 16-runner handicap on the turf. The data highlights two horses of interest: one solid pick at the head of the market and one at bigger odds who could outrun his price significantly.
THE FINGAL RAVEN leads the way on TPR at 73 with proven Meydan credentials. His TrackTPR of 99 confirms he handles the track, having performed well here before. That is important in a race where many rivals have no Meydan form to assess.
The figure consistency is solid: T-1 of 121, T-2 of 120, T-3 of 146. Three consecutive figures all above 120 suggests a horse who can be relied upon to run his race. There are no disasters in that sequence, no figures dropping into double digits. The T-3 of 146 is particularly interesting. That is a strong figure that shows he has the class when things fall right. He has not quite hit those heights in his last two runs, but 120-121 is still competitive.
Form of 20336 shows he has not won recently, but he is consistently competitive in this grade, always thereabouts without quite getting his head in front. Tonight could be the night. Saffie Osborne takes the ride for her father Jamie.
The value play is THE TRICKSTER at bigger odds. His T-1 of 157 demands attention. It is 36 points clear of the next best figure in this race. To put that in context, 36 points is an enormous gap. In most races, the top few horses might be separated by 5-10 points on their best recent figures. A 36-point margin suggests THE TRICKSTER has shown a level of ability that none of these rivals have matched.
His GoingTPR of 128 is also best in the race, meaning he has performed well on turf historically. Form of 12335 includes two earlier wins, and the T-3 of 146 confirms the T-1 peak was no fluke. There is genuine ability here. The question is why he is such a big price.
The answer is the 5th last time out. But examine that more closely. He still posted a figure of 157 in defeat. That tells us he ran a huge race without getting the rub of the green. Possibly unsuited by conditions, possibly caught wide, possibly just unlucky. The figure says he was one of the best horses in the race despite finishing fifth. Musabbeh Al Mheiri (+4 trainer momentum) saddles him with Connor Beasley aboard. At the prices, he is worth including alongside the selection.
ONE MORE arrives from Richard Hannon (+10) with solid form (22132, meaning he was second last time having won one back) and good figure depth, with T-2 of 139 and T-5 of 147 showing ability. But no Meydan experience is a concern against horses who have proven they handle this track.
📋 Selection Recap
Here are tonight’s selections across the eight races at Meydan:
- Race 1 (17:30): TITLE ROLE (7)
- Race 2 (18:05): NATIONAL HISTORY (10)
- Race 3 (18:40): DANCE TO THE MUSIC (1)
- Race 4 (19:15): ANTRIM (6)
- Race 5 (19:50): WEST ACRE (5)
- Race 6 (20:25): ARABIAN LIGHT (2)
- Race 7 (21:00): THE CAMDEN COLT (1)
- Race 8 (21:35): THE FINGAL RAVEN (5) & THE TRICKSTER (13)
Conclusion
That wraps up our coverage of tonight’s Meydan card, a quality eight-race programme as the Dubai World Cup Carnival continues to build. Tonight’s selections have been driven by the methodology: T-1 figures with recency hierarchy, condition-specific metrics, and trainer momentum.
Two yards stand out on tonight’s card. Bhupat Seemar (+19) is the form trainer of the Carnival and saddles THE CAMDEN COLT alongside SALLOOM, who impressed in his trial. Karl Burke (+18) sends ANTRIM with back-to-back wins and consistent figures that deserve respect on his Meydan debut. Charlie Appleby (+7) runs three across the card with William Buick aboard, and when that operation targets races in Dubai, they mean business.
The strongest selection of the night is DANCE TO THE MUSIC in the Mawj Stakes. Best TPR, improving figures with every start (120, 128, 138), and the Appleby/Buick combination in a conditions race. The puzzle pieces align completely.
The Dubai World Cup Carnival continues to build momentum as we head towards Super Saturday and the big night itself. Until then, stay disciplined, stay data-led, and keep making the most of the edge.
Note: Race times are displayed in UAE local time (GMT+4). That is four hours ahead of the UK.
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