Dublin Racing Festival Day 1: Sunday 1st February 2026
After Saturday’s abandonment due to waterlogging, the Dublin Racing Festival finally gets underway. The ground is Heavy – officially Soft to Heavy in places – and that will be a factor, but it’s far from the only consideration across today’s eight-race card.
For anyone new to these blogs, we partner with the Tote to bring you data-led previews for the biggest meetings on the calendar. Our aim is simple: use the EquiAnalytix ratings, pace maps and historical insights to highlight the key contenders for each race. Best of all, the Tote are offering Money Back as a Free Bet if your horse finishes second in every race at the Dublin Racing Festival – perfect for those agonising near-misses that festival racing inevitably delivers.
🏇 Today’s Card at a Glance
Eight races including three Grade 1s and the feature Irish Champion Hurdle:
- 12:40 – Paddy & Maureen Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle (Listed) – 2m2f, 19 runners
- 13:10 – Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Grade 1) – 2m5f, 5 runners
- 13:40 – Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m, 12 runners
- 14:10 – Dublin Chase (Grade 1) – 2m1f, 6 runners
- 14:45 – Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m5f, 23 runners
- 15:20 – Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m, 6 runners
- 15:52 – Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle (Listed) – 2m, 20 runners
- 16:27 – Coolmore Mares Bumper (Grade 2) – 2m, 10 runners
The Irish Champion Hurdle is the headline act – Brighterdaysahead versus Lossiemouth in a rematch of last month’s Christmas meeting. But there’s quality throughout. The Dublin Chase features Majborough and Marine Nationale in a high-class renewal, while the novice events could produce Cheltenham contenders.
🎯 How We Approach The Data
At the heart of our analysis sits the TPR (Total Performance Rating) – a machine learning-driven, forward-looking metric that synthesises a horse’s recent form, track and distance aptitude, going preferences, and breeding into a single predictive number. The proof is in the results: horses ranked in the top three on TPR win approximately 55% of all races across the UK and Ireland, while the top four account for around 67%. It’s a powerful filter that immediately separates genuine contenders from hopeful also-rans.
Supporting the TPR are a handful of key metrics we will reference throughout:
- T-1 through T-5 – Speed figures from the last five runs, adjusted for class. T-1 is the most recent. Recency matters: a horse relying on a big T-4 or T-5 may have peaked months ago.
- GoingTPR – How well a horse has performed on today’s ground. With conditions this testing, horses with proven Heavy ground form deserve extra credit.
- TrackTPR – Leopardstown-specific performance. The track’s undulations and long home straight suit a particular type of horse.
- Trainer Momentum – A trainer’s 1-month performance against their 12-month average. When a yard is running hot, even their second-string runners outperform expectations.
One crucial note on today’s conditions: the data will naturally favour horses with strong Heavy ground figures, but we must be careful not to become slaves to a single metric. A horse who has never seen Heavy ground is not automatically dismissed – they may simply have never been asked the question. We will balance proven mud-lovers with unexposed types who have the profile to handle it. Context, as always, is everything.
Let’s get into the card.
Race 1: 12:40 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Handicap Hurdle (Listed)
2m2f | Hurdle | Heavy | 19 runners
Race Analysis
A competitive 19-runner mares handicap to open proceedings. The TPR hierarchy reads MAY CALL YOU BACK (15) and GALILEO DAME (14) at the summit, but when you dig into the underlying figures, a different picture emerges – one that rewards closer inspection of the speed figures rather than the predictive rating alone.
MAY CALL YOU BACK commands top billing having won on Heavy ground at Gowran Park in November with a T-2 of 151. That’s comfortably the best figure in this field on testing ground. The race comment from that day reads “pressed leader 2 out – led narrowly when mistake last – ridden and kept on well run-in” – suggesting a mare who battles when it matters. Her T-1 of 85 from finishing second at Navan on Soft to Heavy maintains form without reaching those heights. Brian Hayes rides for Willie Mullins, whose operation is firing at a 35% strike rate over the past month. The concern is her GoingTPR of just 50 – meaning that Gowran win was an outlier rather than confirmation of mud-loving ability.
GALILEO DAME ran a blinder at Limerick on Heavy on December 27th, producing a T-1 of 106 when finishing second. The comment notes she “travelled strongly – prominent – led narrowly 3 out – not fluent 2 out – jumped left and headed last – no extra run-in”. She was in front until the business end but couldn’t sustain the effort. Her GoingTPR of 106 matches that run exactly – proving she handles the conditions. J J Slevin rides for Joseph Patrick O’Brien. The question is whether a mare who found one too good that day can reverse form.
The one to fear at a price is SIOG GEAL. Her T-1 of 173 from finishing second at Cheltenham dwarfs everything else on raw speed figures – she’s 67 points clear of the next best. The comment reads “prominent – pressed leader 4th – led approaching last – ridden and headed run-in – soon no extra”. She was in front until the final strides at the highest level. For Fergal O’Brien shipping over from Britain with Jonathan Burke, she represents significant class. The question mark is her GoingTPR of zero – she has never raced on Heavy ground. But that T-1 of 173 is simply too good to ignore. Her DamProgTPR of 109 (highest among the principals) suggests the pedigree can handle a test.
SHODA offers each-way value at bigger prices. Her T-1 of 115 came from finishing third at Clonmel on Heavy just three weeks ago, where she “kept on” despite a mistake at the last. More intriguingly, her T-3 shows a figure of 161 from winning at Clonmel on Soft in September. Sean Bowen – the British champion jockey – travels for Joseph O’Brien, which signals intent.
The selection is SIOG GEAL. That T-1 of 173 is 67 points clear of anything else in the race.
🎯SELECTION
4 SIOG GEAL
Race 2: 13:10 Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Grade 1)
2m5f | Chase | Soft to Heavy | 5 runners
Race Analysis
A five-runner Grade 1 with a dominant favourite. FINAL DEMAND’s TPR of 35 is more than four times the next highest in the field, and the underlying speed figures back up that superiority completely.
His T-1 of 138 came from winning at Limerick on Soft to Heavy on December 28th, where he “jumped well – made all – clear 5 out – went clear again 2 out – kept on well – easily”. Prior to that, his T-2 of 106 came from winning at Navan on Heavy, where he “joined 3 out – shaken up approaching last – soon clear – went further clear run-in – impressive”. Two wins from two starts over fences, both on testing ground. His T-3 of 233 from winning a Punchestown bumper in May shows the raw ability. His GoingTPR of 138 confirms he excels in the mud. His TrackTPR of 132 shows previous Leopardstown form. Paul Townend rides for Willie Mullins with a 35% strike rate this month.
KAID DAUTHIE won nicely at Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day with a T-1 of 121, where he “faced challenge when jumped left and not fluent 2 out – went clear approaching last – comfortably”. But that came on Good to Soft. His GoingTPR of 104 from finishing second at Punchestown on Soft to Heavy suggests he handles cut, but the figure trails Final Demand significantly. He’s a Mullins stablemate who looks set to fill the places rather than threaten the selection. Mark Walsh rides.
WESTERN FOLD brings the same T-1 of 121 from finishing third at Down Royal, but his GoingTPR of just 11 is a serious concern – he’s never shown he handles testing ground. For Gordon Elliott with Jack Kennedy, this looks more about experience-gathering than winning. RUSHMOUNT won at Thurles last time (T-1 118) but has no form on Heavy and makes limited appeal at Grade 1 level.
This is as close to a banker as the weekend offers. FINAL DEMAND has the figures, the ground form, the course form, and the momentum.
🎯SELECTION
1 FINAL DEMAND
Race 3: 13:40 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
2m | Hurdle | Heavy | 12 runners
Race Analysis
A fascinating novice hurdle with genuine depth. The TPR hierarchy reads LE DIVIN ENFANT (36), KING RASKO GREY (33), MISTER PESSIMISTIC (33), BALLYFAD (32) – that compression at the summit tells you this is genuinely competitive. But when you factor in the Heavy ground, the picture clarifies.
KING RASKO GREY brings the best last-time-out figure among the principals. His T-1 of 134 came from winning at Limerick on Soft to Heavy on December 28th, where he showed “smooth headway and went third after 3 out – not fluent but going best when led last – shaken up and clear inside final” – that’s a professional performance on testing ground. His DamProgTPR of 123 is the highest in the field, suggesting the pedigree is geared for this test. Paul Townend rides for Willie Mullins. The question is whether he can handle the step to Grade 1.
LE DIVIN ENFANT heads the TPR but his recent form raises concerns. His T-1 of 114 came from finishing fourth at Leopardstown on December 27th, where he “led clearly after 1st – headed and no extra approaching last”. He emptied out when the pressure came. That’s worrying at the business end of a Grade 1. His GoingTPR of zero adds another layer of uncertainty – he’s never raced on Heavy. Patrick Mullins rides for his father.
BALLYFAD won impressively at Leopardstown on Boxing Day with a T-1 of 89, “making all – went clear after 2 out – pushed out and went further clear run-in – easily”. His TrackTPR of 89 confirms he handles the course. His T-2 of 112 from Punchestown on Soft to Heavy shows he can handle cut. Jack Kennedy rides for Gordon Elliott.
The dark horse is STARTING FIFTEEN. His T-1 of 132 came from winning at Limerick on Heavy on December 26th, where he was “going best when challenging 2 out – soon led – ridden clear run-in”. His GoingTPR of 132 matches that effort – proven Heavy ground form. But here’s the breeding angle: his SireTypeTPR of 138 is the highest in the race by 66 points. That’s a significant outlier suggesting the pedigree is built for this type of test. At bigger odds for Eddie McNamara, he’s the value play.
KOKTAIL BRUT looks one to avoid despite GoingTPR of 134 from winning on Heavy at Punchestown. His T-1 of zero came from Leopardstown on December 27th where he “tailed off” with a vet report noting “blood at both nostrils”. That’s a horse to let prove his wellbeing first.
The selection is KING RASKO GREY. The T-1 of 134 on Soft to Heavy, the DamProgTPR of 123, and the Townend booking all point one way.
🎯SELECTION
4 KING RASKO GREY
Race 4: 14:10 Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1)
2m1f | Chase | Soft to Heavy | 6 runners
Race Analysis
The key to this Dublin Chase lies in the race at this course on December 27th, where three of the principals met. The result that day: SOLNESS won with a TPR of 172, MARINE NATIONALE finished second with 169, MAJBOROUGH third with 160. That’s the most relevant form line we have – and it was just five weeks ago at this exact track.
Yet MAJBOROUGH commands the highest TPR at 52 and will likely start favourite. The market is pricing potential rather than proven form. Yes, his TrackTPR of 145 confirms he handles Leopardstown. His DamProgTPR of 137 is the best in the field – suggesting breeding for the big occasion. But he’s already been beaten here by Solness and Marine Nationale. His GoingTPR of zero adds uncertainty – he’s never raced on Heavy ground. Mark Walsh rides for Willie Mullins. The comment from that December defeat reads “good jump and pressed leaders 3 out – pushed along and 2 lengths down after 2 out – lost second last” – he was being outbattled when it mattered.
MARINE NATIONALE’s T-2 of 197 from winning at Punchestown in April is extraordinary – that figure would win most Dublin Chases. The comment from that day: “smooth headway when bit short of room 3 out – challenging after 2 out – led going best approaching last – pushed out and went clear – impressive”. That’s a monster performance. His T-1 of 169 from finishing second to Solness here maintains the level. For Barry Connell with Sean Flanagan, he has the class to reverse form. The concern is his GoingTPR of zero – untested on Heavy.
SOLNESS has already proven he can beat these rivals at this track. His T-1 of 172 is the best in the race. His TrackTPR of 166 is the highest by 21 points. The comment from winning here reads “faced challenges after 3 out – good jump and 2 lengths ahead after 2 out – shaken up approaching last – ran on well run-in”. He found more under pressure. For Joseph Patrick O’Brien with J J Slevin, he represents value if the market underestimates his proven course form. His GoingTPR of zero is the same question mark that hangs over the other principals.
FOUND A FIFTY brings the best GoingTPR at 199, from winning at Navan on Soft to Heavy in November when he “went clear approaching last – pushed out and went further clear run-in”. He also won at Cork on Soft (T-2 129). Jack Kennedy rides for Gordon Elliott. If conditions prove absolutely brutal, he’s the one with proven ground credentials. But his T-1 of just 92 from that December meeting here – where he “weakened” – is a concern at this level.
ENERGUMENE has GoingTPR of 156 and TrackTPR of 148 from his prime years, but his T-1 of 96 from Cork shows the decline. He “weakened approaching last” that day. At nine, his best days appear behind him.
The selection is MARINE NATIONALE. That T-2 of 197 remains the best figure any of these has produced in their careers. He was closing on Solness at the finish here last time and gets the same terms again. The ground is a question, but the class is undeniable.
🎯SELECTION
4 MARINE NATIONALE
Race 5: 14:45 O’Driscoll’s Irish Whiskey Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
2m5f | Chase | Soft to Heavy | 23 runners
Race Analysis
A cavalry charge with 23 runners, and the data throws up a fascinating puzzle. The handicap nature means compressed TPR figures – the top-rated HARRY DES ONGRAIS has just 12 – so we need to dig into the speed figures and going form to separate them.
ILE ATLANTIQUE’s T-1 of 210 is in a different league to everything else in this race. That figure came from finishing second at Tramore on Soft on New Year’s Day, where he showed “good headway and went second before 2 out – not fluent last – kept on”. His T-2 of 150 maintains the level. Danny Mullins rides for Willie Mullins. The problem is his GoingTPR of zero – he’s never run on Heavy. If he handles the conditions, he wins. If the ground finds him out, he’s vulnerable.
For those wanting proven ground form, BALLYBAWN BELTER stands out. Her T-1 of 103 came from winning at Limerick on Soft to Heavy on December 28th, where she “challenging when left in lead 2 out – clear approaching last – readily”. Her GoingTPR of 94 and consistent T-2 (108) and T-3 (112) show she’s reliable on testing ground. From a mark of 131 for Liz Doyle with Simon Torrens, she offers the rare combination of proven form and fair handicap weight.
DEE CAPO won at Punchestown on Soft to Heavy in November with a T-2 of 126. His T-1 of zero came when he was unseated at Limerick after being “hampered by faller 2 out”, so that’s a line through the form. His TrackTPR of 108 confirms Leopardstown holds no fears. Jack Kennedy rides for Gordon Elliott – the champion jockey booking adds weight.
HARRY DES ONGRAIS topped the TPR but pulled up on Heavy at Gowran just nine days ago, where he was “weakening when mistake then pulled up 3 out”. His GoingTPR of 120 suggests he can handle conditions, but that recent run is an alarm bell. CROKE PARK has a T-1 of 172 but that came from finishing third at Tramore on Soft – a flattering figure. His GoingTPR of just 23 suggests Heavy isn’t his game.
Given the nature of this race, two selections make sense. ILE ATLANTIQUE if you trust the figures to overcome conditions – that T-1 of 210 is 38 points clear of anything else in the race. BALLYBAWN BELTER if you want the proven ground form and consistency.
🎯SELECTIONS
2 ILE ATLANTIQUE
15 BALLYBAWN BELTER
Race 6: 15:20 Timeless Sash Windows Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
2m | Hurdle | Heavy | 6 runners
Race Analysis
The feature of the festival. The rematch everyone wanted. LOSSIEMOUTH and BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD met at this course on December 29th. Lossiemouth won by three lengths. But the data tells a more nuanced story than the bare result.
BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD has the lower TPR at 44 versus Lossiemouth’s 50, but her TrackTPR of 193 is extraordinary – 89 points clear of Lossiemouth’s 104. That figure comes from a previous Leopardstown success when she produced a performance that would win most Champion Hurdles. Her GoingTPR of 160 confirms she handles testing ground – she won at Punchestown on Soft to Heavy in November with a T-2 of 154. She was beaten three lengths here last time (T-1 154), but the comment tells the story: “headway 2 out – pushed along and went second approaching last – ridden run-in – switched right and kept on final stride” – she was staying on while others were stopping. Jack Kennedy rides for Gordon Elliott.
LOSSIEMOUTH has the most recent form – winning here on December 29th with a T-1 of 157. The comment reads “chased clear leader after 4 out – headway 2 out – pushed along to lead approaching last – ridden and edged right run-in – ran on well”. Her T-2 of 186 from winning at Punchestown on Soft to Heavy in November is even more impressive – she “made all – clear after 2 out – eased towards finish – readily”. That’s proven class on testing ground. Paul Townend rides for Willie Mullins. Her GoingTPR of 120 trails Brighterdaysahead’s 160, but that winning T-2 of 186 on Soft to Heavy trumps raw going figures.
The third factor is EL FABIOLO. His GoingTPR of 171 is the highest in the field – higher than both mares. His TrackTPR of 119 shows Leopardstown form. He won at Punchestown last time (T-1 116), “making all – soon clear – went clear again going easily approaching last”. The question is whether he truly wants two miles in a championship hurdle test – he fell when disputing the lead two out at Punchestown in April over fences. J J Slevin rides for Mullins.
ANZADAM is interesting as a pace angle. His T-1 of 140 came from that December race where he “pulled way into lead before 4 out – 6 lengths ahead 3 out – reduced lead 2 out – headed approaching last – no extra”. He’ll ensure the race is run at a proper clip. His TrackTPR of 140 from that run shows he can go well here without winning.
The market will be split. The data slightly favours BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD on that monster TrackTPR of 193 and higher GoingTPR of 160. She was closing on Lossiemouth at the finish last time. At Leopardstown on Heavy ground, those numbers could prove decisive.
🎯SELECTION
5 BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD
Race 7: 15:52 Padel At Leopardstown Golf Handicap Hurdle (Listed)
2m | Hurdle | Heavy | 20 runners
Race Analysis
A 20-runner handicap hurdle that could go any number of ways. HELLO NEIGHBOUR tops the TPR at 33 but his recent form is underwhelming – a T-1 of 101 from finishing fifth at Leopardstown, where he showed “no extra after 2 out”. His GoingTPR of zero on Heavy is a significant concern.
BOWENSONFIRE won at this course last time out. His T-1 of 110 came from Leopardstown on December 27th, where he was “towards rear – bumped 1st – headway on outer 2 out – went second last – ridden and ran on well to lead towards finish”. That’s a horse who picks up the pieces late – ideal for a 20-runner cavalry charge. His TrackTPR of 110 matches that run. His GoingTPR of 127 is proven on testing ground. Jack Kennedy rides for Gordon Elliott – the champion jockey booking on a course winner is a significant positive.
SEA OF SANDS won at Punchestown on Heavy with a T-1 of 87, where she “pushed along to lead before last – ridden out run-in – won going away”. Her GoingTPR of 87 matches that figure exactly – proven Heavy ground form. For Willie Mullins with Brian Hayes, she’s the option from the powerful yard with ground credentials.
I STARTED A JOKE is progressive. Her T-1 of 97 came from winning at Punchestown on Soft just three weeks ago, and her T-2 of 123 from Limerick on Soft to Heavy shows she handles cut in the ground. The comment from that Limerick run reads “led before 2 out – headed last – weakened and lost two places final 110yds” – she was battling but found one or two too good. Sean Bowen – the British champion jockey – travels for the ride, which signals confidence from the Byrnes yard. At a mark of 126, she’s weighted to go close.
BUNTING has TrackTPR of 91 and a T-3 of 107, but her T-1 of 85 from finishing fourth here suggests she’s consistent rather than improving. Harry Cobden rides for Mullins.
The selection is BOWENSONFIRE. Course winner. TrackTPR of 110. GoingTPR of 127. The Kennedy booking on a late-finishing type in a big-field handicap is the recipe for success.
🎯SELECTION
2 BOWENSONFIRE
Race 8: 16:27 Coolmore N.H. Sires Mares Bumper (Grade 2)
2m | Bumper | Heavy | 10 runners
Race Analysis
The festival finale – a Grade 2 mares bumper with WONDERFUL EVERYDAY dominating the TPR at 40, fifteen points clear of the next. But the underlying data demands closer scrutiny before following the obvious.
WONDERFUL EVERYDAY’s T-1 of 117 came from Huntingdon – but she finished tenth. The bare figure flatters because the race comment simply reads “(op 5/4 tchd 6/4)” with no explanation – something clearly went wrong. Her T-2 of 143 from winning at Punchestown in April is much stronger, where she “ran on well to lead final 110yds”. But that was nine months ago. Her SireTypeTPR of 103 is excellent, suggesting the breeding should handle this type of test. Patrick Mullins rides for his father. She has the ability but needs to bounce back from that Huntingdon flop.
CELESTIAL TUNE won at Cheltenham on Soft in November with a T-1 of 120, “leading again over 3f out – ridden and increased tempo over 2f out – readily”. That’s proven form at the highest level on testing ground. Her T-3 of 121 from finishing second at Punchestown shows she’s consistent. For Thomas Cooper with Mr J L Gleeson, she represents the principal proven threat to the favourite.
BROSNA SHINE brings the second-best T-1 at 132, from winning at Fairyhouse on Soft in December where she “led over 2f out – kept on well”. Her T-2 from that Punchestown race shows she was only beaten two places by Wonderful Everyday at level weights – they finished 1-3. For Stephen Gerard Carey, she has the form to go close.
ROYAL HILLSBOROUGH is fascinating. Her T-1 of 137 is the highest in the race – from finishing third at Leopardstown on December 29th, where she “led 4f out – headed over 1f out – no extra inside final furlong”. Her TrackTPR of 137 and GoingTPR of 117 give her proven course and going form that no rival possesses. Her GoingTPR of 117 comes from finishing second at Navan on Heavy in November, where she “pressed winner over 3f out – kept on final furlong – no match for winner”. At bigger odds for Stuart Crawford, she’s overpriced on form.
ARAMINTA’s DamProgTPR of 151 is the highest in the race by 25 points, suggesting significant latent ability in the pedigree. Her T-1 of 121 from finishing second at Fairyhouse shows she’s competitive. What’s almost notable is that she is by French Fifteen, a sire from the Zarkava family and incidentally one that has an eyecatching record with his progeny in bumpers. Despite only four runners, they have averaged an EquiAnalytix rating of 109 which is a standout in this field. Backed by the strong dam statistics, this horse looks one we have to keep on side in the lucky last!
The value lies with ROYAL HILLSBOROUGH. Best T-1 in the race at 137. Proven course form (TrackTPR 137). Proven Heavy ground form (GoingTPR 117). She’s the only horse in the field with evidence on both fronts. But equally our breeding data speaks so strongly for ARAMINTA, and a chance is taken she can take a big step forward here too.
🎯SELECTIONS
7 ROYAL HILLSBOROUGH
2 ARAMINTA
📋 Day 1 Summary: Selections at a Glance
| Race | Time | Selection |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:40 | SIOG GEAL (4) |
| 2 | 13:10 | FINAL DEMAND (1) |
| 3 | 13:40 | KING RASKO GREY (4) |
| 4 | 14:10 | MARINE NATIONALE (4) |
| 5 | 14:45 | ILE ATLANTIQUE (2) / BALLYBAWN BELTER (15) |
| 6 | 15:20 | BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (5) |
| 7 | 15:52 | BOWENSONFIRE (2) |
| 8 | 16:27 | ROYAL HILLSBOROUGH (7) / ARAMINTA (2) |
Conclusion
That wraps up our coverage of Day 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival – a card that always delivers competitive racing and sets the tone for the year ahead.
Through our partnership with Tote UK, we’ll be back tomorrow with more data-driven insights for Day 2! Until then, stay disciplined, stay data-led, and keep making the most of the edge.
Get the Full Data in Our App
Access every racecard, live analytics and the complete blog on your phone: