Hello everyone and welcome to the 5th and final EquiAnalytix blog post for this year’s Royal Ascot, and what a week it has been! So far, these blog posts have produced 11 individual winners across 28 races, a serious feat for the data and following on from successful Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals. I am personally delighted yet gutted at the same time that this marks the final day of a truly great week. Before we dive in, do note that all this analysis plus so much more is readily available via our easy-to-use Dashboard. Why just receive the data for Ascot when you can receive it for every runner, every single day?!
So let’s crack on and dive into our final day of Royal Ascot 2024, which looks a really competitive card… but haven’t they all been?!
Race 1: Chesham Stakes (Listed Race)
The opener on the final day is the Chesham Stakes, a Listed event for 2yos over the 7f trip, and this year’s renewal looks to revolve around Frankel.
Race Analysis:
The reason I say that is that the two horses heading the market are both offspring of Frankel, the Godolphin colt AGE OF GOLD, and the O’Brien trained filly BEDTIME STORY. On paper they both have lovely pedigrees and Frankel progeny are a long way clear on the ratings under today’s conditions, but which will progress better? Using the EquiAnalytix data to study the dam’s side it’s hard to not be impressed by the 95-rated Promised Money, the dam of AGE OF GOLD. However, BEDTIME STORY is out of superstar mare Mecca’s Angel, who at her peak hit a mark of 122. Being by Frankel out of a mare so high class warrants respect and points towards considerable improvement today. When you couple in the fact that this filly earned a respectable rating of 102 when winning on debut, she is taken to land this opening contest.
Race 2: Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2)
Race 2 is the Hardwicke Stakes, a Group 2 ovet the 1m 4f trip and features last year’s St Leger winner, but can he make a winning reappearance?
Race Analysis:
The horse in question is CONTINUOUS for the O’Brien team. This horse was last seen finishing a solid 5th in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, the flagship Group 1 1m 4f race. He was arguably a little unlucky that day, but prior to that was relentless when winning the St Leger and in the process earned a rating of 198. That in any race would be incredibly tough to beat, but there’s another in here that the ratings have identified.
And that horse is CANDLEFORD for William Haggas. This horse last time won a competitive event at the Curragh but in the process earned an enormous rating of 210. Many would question such a figure given this horse’s previous form, but the 2nd horse that day won next time and very much franked the figures. This horse has a clear fondness for Ascot and looks largely underestimated in a wide open renewal.
Race 3: Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series)
Next up we have the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, a very competitive Group 1 over the 6f. The issue is that this year’s renewal definitely lacks that star quality.
Race Analysis:
A quick glance at the table below would see you scratching your head given so many of these horses arrive with solid profiles. ART POWER achieved a very good rating of 145 at his beloved Curragh last time out, a race won by MITBAAHY for Charlie Hills who earned a rating of 149 in the process. These two will be very competitive, as will the very talented KINROSS who has won a Group 1 over course and distance. He heads the breeding data but the issue with him is that he’s tried at this race before and just never shown the same sparkle as when there is some cut underfoot.
Instead the data has identified the Wathnan Racing owned SHARTASH for Archie Watson. This horse has won his last two starts for his new trainer, earning very impressive ratings of 151 and 181 in doing so. These figures are the standout in the field and this drop to 6f looks the ideal move for a horse that is only one of very few to have ever beaten Blackbeard… the incredibly talented quirky O’Brien sprinter.
Race 4: Jersey Stakes (Group 3)
The Jersey is up next and features a deep field of 20 going head-to-head over the 7f trip. Featuring some really high class horses, this race is lined up to be a cracker.
Race Analysis:
Purely on the ratings you would be forgiven for being drawn into the John Gosden trained EBEN SHADDAD. His last two ratings of 160 are up there in this field, but the latter needs a closer inspection. That day he was a well beaten second behind the reopposing HAATEM who that day earned a massive rating of 180. He then susbsequently went onto finish 3rd in the English Guineas, before then finishing 2nd behind stablemate Rosallion in the Irish Guineas. That form has been well and truly franked this week and he looks incredibly solid dropped back into Group 3 company. This new recruit for Wathnan Racing will take some stopping.
An outsider that needs serious respect in this field is TASK FORCE. For our regular readers, you will understand the importance we place on our breeding data, and this horse is a standout. Being by Frankel out of a Hennessy mare, he is supremely bred for this conditions and can take a massive leap forwards dropped in trip after being well beaten in the English Guineas. Today could be a different ballgame and we are fascinated to see how he performs.
Race 5: Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
Next we have the Wokingham Stakes, and whilst we have spoken about so many competitive handicaps, this one is about as hard as it comes. A cavalry charge over 6f for some well exposed handicappers will require a great deal of luck.
Race Analysis:
We could talk about each of these horses but the place we want to start is the track bias at Ascot under these conditions. A new feature of the EquiAnalytix Dashboard is that we have loaded a new tool to identify the percevied track biases under every single set of conditions, over 23,000 in total. I am a firm believer that your eyes can deceive you in this sport and so it’s very interesting to see that over sprint trip, on quick ground, high draws at Ascot have around 17% statistical edge in such races. This, over a 20 year period is significant and will help you to narrow down many of thise 28-runner field.
And now onto the ratings, the place we want to start is the head of the table FERROUS for Jack Channon. Jack has done ever so well since taking his father’s license and this horse is another example of his training ability. Having won 2 of his 3 starts this season, he has earned impressive ratings of 155, 158 and 157. This is not only a high level, but shows ultra consistency. On his most recent start, he finished 3rd in behind two reopposing horses today, LETHAL LEVI & RUMSTAR, both of which have received a hike in the weights as a result. The handicapper instead left FERROUS unchanged and that might just see him take another step forward today.
Given the great competitive nature of this race, we must also consider those horses that are best bred as frankly it is group-level horses that win this race. And there are none better bred than the son of Frankel, FIVETHOUSANDTOONE. This Andrew Balding trained 6yo was very progressive on the all weather before putting a weak display at York last time. On his form he has yet to see things click on the turf, but his pedigree suggests he surely has far more ability than he’s shown and with a fast pace to suit, he has the draw to make a big effort today.
Race 6: Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap)
The penultimate contest is the Golden Gates Stakes, another handicap but this time over the 10f trip.
Race Analysis:
This race is really wide open, so let’s start with current market leader HAND OF GOD. This horse looked ready for a step up in trip last time and he’s granted that today. The issue we have is that his ratings are not a standout, figures of 115, 158 & 128 are bettered by many of his opposition today and therefore we find it difficult to understand his popularity.
Instead, if we look at the ratings you are immediately drawn to ARABIC LEGEND. His 168 last time however came by being well beaten in the Lingfield Derby trial, and on that effort it raises the question mark against that figure. Therefore instead the obvious choice is APPROVAL, the William Haggas trained 3yo. He won very well last time out and in doing so earned a very strong rating 164, showcasing his very progressive profile.
We also have to be drawn to be drawn towards DAMBUSTER at a big price. This horse bettered anything achieved in this field when earning a rating of 169 when winning at Beverley on reappearance. He has never raced over a surface this firm, but by studying the breeding data it’s hard to think it would be too much of an inconvenience, and this son of Kingman looks very interesting on handicap debut for the Balding team.
Race 7: Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race)
Well this is it, the very final race of Royal Ascot 2024 and one final deep dive into the EquiAnalytix data this week. The Queen Alexandra Stakes looks a brilliant renewal and a fitting way to end what has been a tremendous week.
Race Analysis:
On face value it’s hard to ignore the ratings achieved by fan-favourite TRUESHAN.. the issue is that I am just not convinced he will turn up. His career has been plagued with non-runner notifications due to fast ground and this week the ground is very quick. If he was to turn up I would not be surprised to see him run a huge race as this sort of stamina test is just what is needed these days, the worry is that conditions are not there to suit and others will have it more their way.
QUEENSTOWN will rightly be popular to see O’Brien and Moore finish this week on a real high, and he looks sure to appreciate this marathon test. But with others having achieved more, the race loosk to be a match up between last year’s winner DAWN RISING & RUN FOR OSCAR. Both of these horses look to have been lined up for this contest, both competiting over inadequate trips on their most recent runs. The telling factor is that RUN FOR OSCAR earned a very eyecatching rating of 181 for that, with the winner Candleford running earlier in the afternoon. After being hampered in this very race last year, the Charles Byrnes gelding looks set to make amends and finish this week on a high.
Final Thoughts
And with that, Royal Ascot 2024 draws to a close. And I can only say what an amazing week it has been. We have witnessed some of the highest quality and most competitive racing that I’ve personally ever seen. And on a personal note, I really believe this week has proven what EquiAnalytix can do. The data is improving every single week and I’d encourage you all to join this movement as I look to revolutionise the way people analyse a race.