Hello everyone and welcome EquiAnalytix’s blog for day 4 of Royal Ascot. Before we dive in, you will have to humour me for just a moment as yesterday’s performance needs reviewing. After such a tremendous day 2 from the data, I was personally delighted to see us do the exact same on day 3. Starting with Shareholder in the Norfolk at odds of 12/1, we then witnessed a massive performance from Kyprios to retain his Gold Cup, before Mickley took our record in big-field handicaps to a new level when winning at 15/2.
A truly remarkable few days and I am proud to have been able to share it with so many of you. The data is refined every single day and the results continue to speak for themselves, and there is arguably no truer test than Royal Ascot with so many ultra competitive races. Day 4 has a slightly different feel to it, so let’s get started!
Race 1: Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies)
We get under away with another 2yo contest, this time the Albany Stakes, a Group 3 race for fillies only. This week’s 2yo races have largely gone in the favour of UK-contenders so far, but is that about to change?
Race Analysis:
We say that as the data has spoken strongly for the O’Brien trained FAIRY GODMOTHER. First a word on the trainer who unbelievably yesterday produced Kyprios from near retirement all the way to a second Gold Cup, a genius trainer and I don’t believe his mastery is done yet. FARIY GODMOTHER won on her last appearance, landing a Group 3 at Naas in impressive enough fashion but it’s a race that has often thrown up a nice type and when you consider she earned a rating of 159 for winning, she certainly fits that mould.
With these races as I’ve said before, we like to dive into the breeding data to identify those potentially progressive types and interestingly it leads us to arrive as the same conclusion. FARIY GODMOTHER is by Night Of Thunder who boasts the top sire statistics for his progeny under today’s conditions, but it’s her mare Scintilating who is even more interesting. She has already produced the smart horse Sketch, and herself was a 6f winner as a 2yo… all pointing towards this filly having everything in her favour.
Race 2: Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (No Geldings)
The Commonwealth Cup is always a cracking race, featuring some of the very best 3yo sprinters around.. and this year’s looks to contain a potentially special horse.
Race Analysis:
The horse in question is the Kevin Ryan trained INISHERIN. Having been supplemented for this race, he has proven very strong in the betting and once you glance at the data, it’s easy to understand why. His 6th place in the 2,000 Guineas was good form, but when dropped back to 6f in the Sandy Lane Stakes this horse took a huge step forward. Winning by just over 3 lengths, this horse earned a huge rating of 178 that day and that’s the real standout in this field today.
Studying the remainder of the field there are plenty of progressive types, including PANDORAS GIFT, but it’s the James Fanshawe trained KIND OF BLUE that catches the eye. Having made his debut only in April, this horse was impressive winning that day at Kempton and earned a good rating of 110. Next time out the horse took a big step forward when landing the prize at Doncaster, earning an improved rating of 140. But what is most interesting is this horse’s pedigree as it stands out on the breeding data. By leading sprint-sire Blue Point, he’s bred for this test and looks likely to be in the frame.
Race 3: Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies)
The Group 1 Coronation Stakes is the feature today and features some very high class milers.. but is there an obvious winner?
Race Analysis:
Having analysed this race in depth I believe the answer is no. OPERA SINGER is the obvious winner, the standout on the breeding data but lacks that star quality on her form ratings. She is entitled to take a big step forward on her 2nd start of the season, and I won’t be surprised if she was to do just that, but it’s difficult to have high conviction here based on what the data suggests.
ELMALKA’s form is rock solid having won the 1,000 Guineas and she has to have a very good chance here, but there are questions over that form and the rating again doesn’t stand out. We are however interested in CONTENT at a huge price. Her last run in Ireland was back in October when she posted a very impressive figure of 158. However, after going on to run a big race at Santa Anita, she was very well beaten in the French 1,000 Guineas. She will need to take a step forward here but she’s bred to do so and largely looks ignored in this field currently.
Race 4: Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap)
The Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes is up next, a very competitive looking handicap over the 1m 4f trip and this one looks a real conundrum.
Race Analysis:
ETHICAL DIAMOND will prove popular for Willie Mullins and Ryan Moore, and with a rating last time 156, the horse should be very competitive. Admittedly it’s incredibly tight at the top of the ratings and really you could throw a blanket over many of these. The ratings have identified the chances of CRYSTAL BLACK for Gerard and Colin Keane. This horse has been on a very upward curve thius season, winning his last two starts and earning ratings of 147 and 170 for doing so. That 170 is a standout piece of recent form in this field and gives him a huge chance today.
We do however need to look into the breeding data, especially as many of these are up in trip today. What’s most interesting is that it features SEA KING who will look to give Sir Mark Prescott a 2nd winner of the week. He is by Sea The Stars who’s statistics as a sire stand out in this field under the conditions, and when you consider the dam, Pamona, she herself was a high class filly over middle-distances. The pedigree is very good and a rating last time of 160 bolster that.
Race 5: Sandringham Stakes (Fillies’ Handicap)
Race 5 is the Sandringham Stakes, a handicap that will see 30 fillies spread across the width of Ascot competing over a mile… sounds easy to analyse right?
Race Analysis:
The market has this race wide open and you can really understand why when you study the data. Many of these horse are on a steep upward curve, and have each posted some impressive figures of their own. That includes the current market leader INDELIBLE as well as D FLAWLESS, VIENNOISE & SOPRANO. But sat atop of the table are two horses that look to have very interesting profiles for this sort of contest, WITHOUT WORDS & FAIR ANGELLICA. The former is trained by Joseph O’Brien and will be making her second start since joining the stable from France. On debut she was particularly weak in the market but the penny dropped late on as she chased home a well-regarded Ballydoyle filly. That day she earned a rating of 134 which whilst isn’t a standout, it’s very competitive. The draw bias at Ascot this week also suggests her position in stall 20 will be ideal and she has an upwardly mobile pedigree for this type of race.
The second interesting contender is FAIRY ANGELLICA for Richard Hughes. This filly has won 4 of her 5 races, with an incredibly progressive rating profile of 95, 113, 118, 124 & 162. She has shown herself to be very progressive and her last time out win at Kempton is a very good piece of form. It may not be the most usual prep for a race at Royal Ascot but the data suggests we should not underestimate her chances.
Race 6: King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings)
The penultimate race is the King Edward VII Stakes, a Group 2 contest over 1m 4f which features many horses he will be reopposing eachother once again.
Race Analysis:
Many will be glued to the son of Frankel, DIEGO VELAZQUEZ, who was last seen posting a disappointing effort in the Prix du Jockey Club in Chantilly. That day he was very below par, but his ratings even prior to that just don’t stand up, and when you look further into the breeding the data, you discover the dam was much more effective over shorter trips than this. Now we are not questioning the masterful O’Brien team here, but on the data available there look to be better contenders in this race.
SPACE LEGEND will be popular also for the Wathnan Racing team, and that horse looked unlucky to have finished behind MEYDAAN last time, and that horse has since gone onto run well enough earlier in the week. But what ties them all together is current outsider THE EUPHRATES. This horse finished closely behind MEYDAAN in the Lingfield Derby Trial and hasn’t been seen since. This lightly raced Frankel colt has stamina on his dam side and with a visor added may just spark him up again. His profile suggests that better is to come and he may well cause a big shock here today.
Race 7: Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes (Handicap)
We close day 4 with another incredibly competitive 5f handicap, the Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes.
Race Analysis:
This race is very competitive with only a handful of points seperating several of these at the head of the table. But saying that, the data has identified two horses that may just well be up to winning a race of this nature. The first is DYRHOLAEY again for Wathnan Racing who was recently purchased within the Archie Watson stable. This horse has had 3 wins from his only 3 starts and boasts ratings of 147, 129 and 136 for doing so which really do standout in this contest. The feeling here is that with these sorts of ratings, a mark of 90 looks to underestimate him and from a good draw, we expect the horse to pose a very big threat to all.
The second horse of note is the Tom Ward trained WOODHAY WONDER. I first must acknowledge that I work closely with Tom and his team via our Racing Club, and I would personally be delighted if this horse was to win for such a deserving team. She looks on the data to have an outstanding chance of doing so. Having shown a clear fondness for Newmarket, this filly has taken a big step forward as a 3yo, winning twice at the track and rising 10lbs in the handicap. Ratings of 156 and 146 for those victories are very solid, and these suggest the filly can progress into the 100s, something she will need to do to win today.
Final Thoughts
And again that’s a wrap for another day at Royal Ascot. It’s a very long week but what a week it’s been so far?! Nobody can deny the competitiveness of these races, and I am just overjoyed to have been able to help so many of you with your analysis along the way. Don’t forget though, all this plus so much more is available every single day via our Dashboard.