For many this is Day 1 of one of the best weeks of the year, Royal Ascot. Royal Ascot is a firm favourite of the team at EquiAnalytix as we are treated with 5 days of ultra-competitive action, showcasing some of the very best thoroughbreds in the World. With top contenders from the UK, Ireland, France and the USA, this year’s renewal is set to be a real spectical. And what better way to enjoy and decipher the week than with the help of the EquiAnalytix Data. Our feature-rich Dashboard is quickly becoming the go-to tool for all racing enthusiasts, whether you’re a punter looking to find an edge, or an owner wanting to dive deeper into your horse’s chances, there is something for everyone. For this week, we will give you a flavour each day of how powerful the data can be, by analysing some of the most competitive races of the entire sesaon.
And as a quick reminder for new readers, our ratings are a sophisticated amalgamation of various factors including speed, race class, adjusted time, multiple environmental conditions, and advanced AI algorithms. Each rating is designed to provide a comprehensive overview of a horse’s performance in any given race. To get your head around these ratings, think of them as a composite score that distills complex data into a simple, actionable metric. And when using these ratings, it’s important to remember that a rating of 100 is considered the standard. Anything above is an above-average performance, and conversely anything below is a below-average performance.
Race 1: Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series)
First up we have a very competitive renewal of the Queen Anne Stakes, a Group 1 contest for the older horses over 1m.
Race Analysis:
The most notable thing about this race is that is missing a few very well fancied horses who have been redirected elsewhere, most notably Inspiral who would’ve no doubt been a short price for this. Instead, the ratings have identified her stable mate AUDIENCE as a potentially very underestimated contender. This horse was last seen dominating a good field at Newbury, and whilst many were quick to point towards the horse taking advantage of a potential track bias, he wasn’t alone in venturing away from the rail and having made all the running, still posted a near record time for the course and distance. He officially achieved an EquiAnalytix rating of 194 for that effort and that’s a clear standout when compared to his opposition today. In fact, CHARYN, the horse he beat that day, is a far shorter price which looks unjustified on the data.
For regular readers and followers of EquiAnalytix, you will have become used to us citing our Breeding Data. Having collated breeding data as far back as 1930, our database is increasingly producing leading analysis on the prospects of different offspring. And when it comes to flat racing, breeding is ever so important. So when studying the data for the Queen Anne it showcases the talents of Siyouni offspring, represented here by both DOLAYLI and WITCH HUNTER. It’s the former here that peaks interest coming over from France, and on pedigree can cause a stir in Race 1.
Race 2: Coventry Stakes (Group 2)
Race 2 can only be described as a cavalry charge… the Coventry Stakes. This Group 2 6f contest features some of this year’s smartest 2yos.. but is there a standout?
Race Analysis:
In truth, it’s incredibly difficult to go through this 23-runner field and arrive at a high conviction conclusion. The reason for that is that 99% of the field still look very unexposed. The Godolphin runner AL QUDRA sets a very decent standard and his last time out rating of 156 is worth taking note of, especially when you consider he did that very wide around Lingfield. The ratings suggest this horse will be bang there, but with 3 runs the concern would be that others may end up improving past him.
Therefore when looking at those unexposed types, it’s hard not to be drawn to both outsiders, COOL HOOF LUKE & COLUMNIST. It’s the latter that peaks the interest of the figures for what was a dominant display at Chester on debut. The horse has been put away for this and he arrives with his stable operating at the very top level, boasting the standout figures on our Trainer Data.
And of course in a race with such unexposed types, a glance must be made at the Breeding Data which members can receive an in depth report on for every runner. For this contest, a real chance can be made for THE ACTOR based on pedigree. This colt is by top sprinting sire Harry Angel which boasts the top progeny figure for 2yos over 6f. This horse is bred to appreciate the extra furlong and it will be interest to see how he performs.
Race 3: King Charles III Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series)
Next up is another sprinting contest, this time for the older horses and all eyes will be on the fan-favourite BIG EVS.
Race Analysis:
BIG EVS is the obvious starting place here after his heroics at The Breeders’ Cup last year, and he arrives into the King Charles III stakes off the back of a solid reapearrance win. The issue the data finds with this horse is that his ratings don’t seem to support the hype around him. And whilst now doubt he will be expected to go very close here, he may well be best taken on.
And to do that the ratings really support a big run coming from KERDOS. The Clive Cox trained 4yo produced a career-best last time when landing a hot contest at Haydock last month. The manner of that victory suggested this masterful trainer has another improving sprinter on his hands and a rating achieved of 196 is the best piece of form on offer in the race.
Race 4: St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Colts) (British Champions Series)
Race 4 is one of the most fascinating contests of the entire week, as it brings together multiple Guineas’ Winners for a proper renewal of the St James’ Palace Stakes.
Race Analysis:
There is of course no better place to start than the winner of the English Guineas, NOTABLE SPEECH. This horse has a remarkable profile and for many produced a big shock when landing the Classic at Newmarket. The reason for that is prior to that race he’d won at Kempton on the all-weather, not your usual prep race for a British Classic. However, he did that day what he did at Newmarket, and that is to show an unbelievable turn of foot to put both races to bed in a matter of strides. A standout rating of 150 last time suggests this race may be ran exactly the same, and EquiAnalytix believes this is a pretty special horse. This suggestion is further supported by the performance of Dubawi progeny under these conditions, his sire statistics are a standout here further bolstering expectations.
The opposition are of course no pushovers, with ROSALLION being touted as Richard Hannon’s best ever horse, and the French contenders hold a very serious level of form. The standout from a ratings perspective would have been outisder ALMAQAM who massively impressed us with his 166 rating at Sandown. The issue is that he looks to be better suited to a softer surface and with those conditions unlikely, it would temper enthusiasm.
Race 5: Ascot Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
The next race you’d be forgiven for thinking was being ran at Cheltenham, given the exteneded 2m 4f trip and many NH trainers taking their chances.
Race Analysis:
The Ascot Stakes is always a great spectacle and really pushes each horse’s stamina to the very limit. A race where stamina, yet tactical speed is needed to win takes a very unique type of horse. Purely from the ratings it’s very hard to not be drawn towards the Gordon Elliot trained PIED PIPER. The horse was unlucky at Royal Ascot last year and was last seen putting in tremendous late work in Newmarket’s stamina-sapping Cesarewitch. He was only just denied that day and granted a better trip today will be very difficult to beat.
Similar can likely be said about the well-fancied MY LYKA for Willie Mullins. With Ryan Moore taking the ride, this unexposed type could be absolutely anything, but with really no clear data to go on it’s difficult to be overly enthusiastic.
Several of this year’s contenders are well known on the staying scene, with horse such as TRITONIC, DIVINE COMEDY, ZANNDABAD all with clear chances. However it’s the old boy THE GRAND VISIR who has been identified by the ratings as a lively outsider. This horse is a real Royal Ascot stalwart having won this race in 2019 and having finished 8th last year, before running a close 2nd in the Queen Alexandra Stakes only 4 days later. What is most interesting is that he now reappears off his lowest mark since 2017, a mark of 87. He is dangerously well handicapped here and his last time out rating of 120 stands out well in this field, showing that improvement can come under his optimum conditions. And don’t forget, this is a son of super-sire Frankel, who is by far the standout sire for these race conditons of stamina and speed.
Race 6: Wolferton Stakes (Listed Race)
The penultimate contest is the Wolferton Stakes, a Listed contest over the 10f trip which on paper looks a very open renewal.
Race Analysis:
Glancing an eye at the data, this race has a very open feel to it. Despite some eye-watering ratings by some of these, it’s still very open and difficult to assess. With that we can observe the obvious chances of ISRAR who heads the data table, and CERTAIN LAD, who despite being found out before at this level brings a very interesting level into the race this year. The former looks very progressive on paper and ratings of 137, 174 & 201 showcase a horse quickly on the improve. Natural progression would suggest this horse will be very tough to beat on the day. But it’s worth noting it’s not the highest level of form in the field and it will be fascinating to see how CERTAIN LAD performs. As noted, he can often find this level beyond him but our data identified his last run at Sandown as a very strong piece of form. That was int he Brigadier Gerard Stakes where he chased hom the well fancied Royal Rhyme. Despite finishing 2nd, he still earned a massive rating of 249 leaving the impression his large odds may just underestimate him here.
Race 7: Copper Horse Handicap
We close Day 1 of Royal Ascot 2024 with the Copper Horse Handicap, a 1m 6f contest featuring a strong field of 16.
Race Analysis:
The market for this contest looks wide open on paper but the ratings suggest this might not be the case. We are very intrigued by how ALSAKIB will perform on the day with this grey 4yo colt having achieved a tremendous level of form on his last 3 runs. Ratings of 169, 151 & 187 indicate a very high level of ability and suggests a contest such as this is ideally suited to the son of Kingman. Incidentally, this horse screens incredibly well on the EquiAnalytix Breeding Data where Kingman progeny boast by far the best ratings over today’s conditions. He is a fascinating contender and looks to close Day 1 with a winner for the Balding team.
Final Thoughts
And with that, we come to a close for Day 1 of Royal Ascot 2024. I do hope that you’ve found this post insightful, with my aim being to give you just a small look at how our ratings are revolutioning horse racing. If you do want to dive even deeper than this, and access our full suite of data ranging from form, to trainer data all the way to our unrivalled breeding data, then please take a look at our many packages on offer for new members.