Of course the only place we can start is by taking note of yesterday’s results as it is days like that, that make the years of collating all this data so worth it. Blog readers were treated to 4 winning horses based on the EquiAnalytix analysis, with ILLINOIS relishing the step up in trip, AUGUSTE RODIN landing his 6th Group 1 victory, WILD TIGER showcasing our breeding data, and closing the day with AIN’T NOBODY showcasing our form ratings at odds of 8/1.
A fantastic day all round and it’s been a pleasure receiving so many of your messages of support. With that, we must now revert our attention to day 3 where again we are faced with some ultra competitive racing.
Race 1: Norfolk Stakes (Group 2)
Day 3 begins with the Norfolk Stakes, another hotly contested 2yo race over the minimum 5f trip featuring a very well-fancied horse.
Race Analysis:
The horse in question is WHISTLEJACKET for the all-conquering O’Brien team. After 2 winners yesterday, the stable is in red hort form and will be incredibly tough to beat. This twice-raced colt has a lovely pedigree, being a son of No Nay Never out of a smart middle-distance mare Adventure Seeker. No Nay Never continues to put speed into his offspring but I would’ve suspected this colt would have appreciated further than this, and when you take a glance at his raw ratings of 88 and 119, they don’t exactly jump off the page. Whilst this race lacks depth, there are stronger market leaders than him and we are intrigued by some of the more unexposed types.
And it’s one of those types that we have to mention next, the Wathnan Racing representative, SHAREHOLDER. This colt narrowly beat MOVING FORCE on debut at Beverley in receipt of 7lbs from that horse. Whilst only winning by a narrow margin, it was the manner in which the horse travelled into the race that caught the eye. What is even more impressive is when you dive into his pedigree. We continue to be impressed by Not This Time offspring and our data suggests it’s the top sire in the field under the conditions. Then when studying the dam Cloudy Dancer, you can see that SHAREHOLDER has a very smart half-brother in training with Tom Dascombe. The breeding data speaks strongly and we have to take note. A lively outsider who also is worth a second looks is the Kevin Philippart De Foy trained BINADHAM. Whilst the horse features at a huge price, his last time out rating of 163 reads very well in this field and after the success of the raw form data yesterday, he is certainly an interesting contender.
Race 2: King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
Next up is the King George V Stakes, a heritage handicap over the 1m 4f trip. This year’s renewal has a very open feel to it, featuring 19 horses all of which a case can be made for.
Race Analysis:
Despite that, the ratings have identified a potentially very smart horse in the form of GILDED WATER. At the time of writing this horse has began to summon confidence in the market and that looks very well justified on the figures. The horse has had 3 runs, winning his most recent start in commanding style. But it’s the progressive ratings of 95, 118 and 169 that mark this horse as one to follow. For those that can, take a look at his latest run at Chepstow. He can be seen galloping the opposition into submission and this long-striding horse can take another big step forward here today.
This race is no formality though and a glance at the EquiAnalytix Breeding data opens it wide up. The most talked about sire so far this year, Justify, is represented by GASPER DE LEMOS. This horse looks very well bred for the conditions and looking at the form of his dam Hence, he’s bred to be much better than this level. Of the remainder, cases can be made for PONIROS, CHANTILLY & FRENCH DUKE, but all look to have something to find with the King’s representative GILDED WATER.
Race 3: Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies)
Race 3 is the Ribblesdale Stakes, a Group 2 for the fillies over the 1m 4f trip.
Race Analysis:
This race is full well-bred fillies, many of which can take a big step forward given their lightly-raced profiles. Therefore we will analyse this contest with a keen eye on the breeding data. On the form ratings, you have to be drawn to DANIELLE who heads the table. She earned a rating of 190 for finishing 3rd in the Lingfield Oaks trial, finishing behind both YOU GOT ME & RUBIES ARE RED. Incidentally the latter was a horse the ratings felt could’ve won the Epsom Oaks, but she proved very disappointing on the day and has lost the services of Ryan Moore here today. With that in mind, it’s difficult to be too enthusiastic of DANIELLE’S chances, and therefore all roads lead to the Andrew Balding trained KALPANA. This filly still has a very unexposed profile, but her ratings of 163 and 150 really catch the eye. What further bolsters her profile is that her sire Study Of Man is a real standout on our sire statistics under today’s conditions for his offspring. Her dam was the very talented French racer Zero Gravity who herself won a Listed contest over today’s trip. KALPANA is from the right family and points to major improvement for the step up in trip.
Race 4: Gold Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series)
The Ascot Gold Cup is the feature today and the race of the week. It showcases a very strong field of 10 who will go over the gruelling 2m 4f trip in chase of an incredibly prestigious Group 1.
Race Analysis:
The obvious starting place is KYPRIOS who on all form is incredibly difficult to beat here. The ratings continue to be blown away by this horse and for good reason. You only have to look at his last 6 ratings since winning this very race in 2022: 172, 176, 191, 181, 123 & 167. This are incredible figures and frankly dominate this field. Conditions are there to suit, and this son of Galileo is well prepared to land a second Gold Cup.
However there is another story at play here and that’s due to owner Clive Washburn. Clive is an incredibly popular figure in the racing scene and has remained incredibly bullish about his horse, CAIUS CHORISTER. He is spotlighted today after doing something not many horses can do, post a higher rating than KYPRIOS. His last run at Sandown earned the horse a massive rating of 208 for going down narrowly to the reopposing SWEET WILLIAM. That horse has to contend with a 3lb swing in the weights and with this extra distance to suit, CAIUS CHORISTER looks a fascinating contender and what would be a very popular winner.
Race 5: Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings)
Race 5 is the Brittania Stakes, another infamously competitive handicap over Ascot’s famous mile trip. Featuring 30 contenders.. this year’s renewal looks a real puzzle to assess.
Race Analysis:
Whilst this is one of the most competitive races of the week, the ratings have identified here a horse that looks to have an outstanding chance of landing the spoils. That horse is MICKLEY for the Edward Bethell team. When you study the ratings table below, his chances will look very apparent after such a rise through the handicap. After receiving an opening mark of 83 for 3 solid novice efforts, this horse won very well at Doncaster but in the procees earned a very impressive rating of 193. That piece of form is a standout in this field and the 7lb rise has allowed him to take a chance in a contest such as this. With natural progression expected, this horse certainly looks ahead of the handicapper and has conditions to put in another big performance.
Away from that horse, readers will be forgiven for flagging the chances of KINGS GAMBLE. The horse is arguably the best bred in the field being by Kingman, albeit the dam’s side looks a little weak. He remains lightly raced and ratings of 129, 143 and 136 are very solid. The issue may well be a mark of 102 which he was unable to overcome earlier this month.
Race 6: Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3)
Our penultimate contest is the Hampton Court Stakes, a Group 3 contest over the 1m 2f trip and it features a horse the EquiAnalytix team has been excited to see this week.
Race Analysis:
The horse in questions is KING’S GAMBIT for Harry Charlton and William Buick. The Racing Post aptly notes that the London Gold Cup, the race this horse won last time, often produces Group winners and that’s a key consideration here today. What boosts that is the fact that when winning that race, KING’S GAMBIT earned a big rating of 178 and that’s the standout figure in this field. The horse has been very well-backed and the analysis is clear, it all points towards a very big performance.
Race 7: Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)
We close day 3 with another big-field handicap, this time the Buckingham Palace Stakes.
Race Analysis:
This is an incredibly difficult race to weigh up, but there are a few standout contenders from both a form and breeding perpspective. The first is PERCY’S LAD for the Kublers. He stands atop of the racing table for good reason, having landed a valuable handicap at Chester last time out, earning a rating of 176. That rating is the standout in this field and has to bring him into the mix with the race likely to be ran to suit.
ENGLISH OAK has an outstanding chance here and I expect him to be bang there late on, but a horse of considerable interest from a breeding perspective is ALZAHIR. The interesting thing about this horse is that he finished in behind PERCY’S LAD last time out in the race at Chester, beaten 3 lengths in total. He was keen that day and ultimately pulled his chances away, but this horse gets a 4lb swing at the weights with Percy and Daniel Tudhope arrives here for the ride. Perking the interest further is when you consider this horse’s breeding, being by Sea The Stars and out of a dam called Cup Cake who also produced the superstar Suedois. Suedois was a Group 1 winning miler for David O’Meara and so he knows the family incredibly well, pointing towards significant progression from this horse today.
Final Thoughts
And that is all for day 3. A very busy day’s racing and it officially marks the halfway point of Royal Ascot. I am sure you will all agree it’s been a tremendous week so far, and I’ve thoroughly enjoyed sharing the data with you. As always, if you have any further questions please do not hesitate to ask.