As we head into Day 2 of the Royal meeting, we first must take a look back at what was an incredibly eventful opening day. CHARYN cemented himself as a top class miler in the Queen Anne, right before readers were left sweating after COLUMNIST ran a huge race in the Coventry to grab 3rd at monster odds of 50/1! On the day the big disappointment was NOTABLE SPEECH who couldn’t show that electric turn of foot that we’d all become acustomed to, but take nothing away from the winner ROSALLION who really does look a very good horse for the Hannon team. Readers weren’t left waiting long for ISRAR to put up one of the performances of the day, surging away from the field late on in impressive fashion.
Overall it was an interesting opening day and full of some really competitive racing. What was most pleasing is that it was another example of how the EquiAnalytix data can be used to decipher such difficult racing. From the form data, the trainer data, to the breeding data, there are multiple ways to approach this complex sport and we cannot wait to dive into Day 2!
Race 1: Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies)
We open Day 2 with another ultra-competitive 2yo contest, this time the Queen Mary Stakes. This 5f contest is for fillies only, will be ran at a frenetic gallop and there is the small matter of going through a 26-runner field.
Race Analysis:
As we said yesterday, these races are full of completely unexposed horses and can often be a complete minefield to analyse. However, we often find that the most telling sign in these races are the pedigrees on offer, and hence we will focus on the EquiAnalytix Breeding data.
Incidentally, it actually features the top two according to the ratings, both TRULY ENCHANTING, & XANTHE, as well KASSAYA. These 3 exciting fillies are sired by No Nay Never, Earthlight & Kingman respectively, 3 sires that boast the very best progeny statistics for 2yo races over the minimum trip. When you then couple in the fact that the dam of TRULY ENCHANTING was the 102-rated Alluringly, it starts to paint a very convincing picture from a breeding perspective. This filly also produced a standout rating of 164 on debut, unrivalled on the ratings. KASSAYA has to be considered as Kingman offspring continue to dominate this space, and this filly today arrives after a very impressive victory at Nottingham. Reverting back to a fillies only race, she will be tough to beat with natural progression expected.
Race 2: Queen’s Vase (Group 2)
Next up we have the Queen’s Vase, a 1m 6f contest for 3yos which will really stretch their stamina and tactical speed, two qualities the ratings have a strong opinion on for one horse.
Race Analysis:
The horse in question is ILLINOIS for the all-conquering O’Brien and Moore combination. This horse was last seen finishing 2nd in the Lingfield Derby Trial, finishing his race very well behind Epsom Derby 2nd Ambiente Friendly. That form is solid on paper and on the figures, as it earned this horse a very eyecatching rating of 200, a level of form far beyond what the rest of this field have achieved. Being by Galileo, this step up in distance looks an obvious move and there’s a chance we may witness a very big performance here.
Frankel is doubly represented here by two horses that do very much appeal on the ratings, IMPERIAL SOVEREIGN & MEYDAAN. The latter has been well-touted after winning well at Goodwood last time, but the fear here is both of their levels of form would require a marked step up to match ILLINOIS.
Race 3: Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares)
As we head into Race 3, we are presented with another contest for the fillies and mares, this time the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, a Group 2 over 1 mile.
Race Analysis:
A quick glance at the ratings table suggests this race is open, but the reality is that it looks to be lacking that potential superstar which we’ve come to expect from Royal Ascot. Whilst it’s competitive, there are more questions than answers. A lot of the form on offer involves the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom on Derby day, a race won by BREEGE which incidentally is the best piece of form on paper. The problem with that is that the race was full of hard-luck stories, none more so than the James Tate trained ROYAL DRESS. This filly posted a very good rating of 138 on stable debut at Goodwood, landing a listed contest with ease. She then went to Epsom and had a terrible passage late on, and the team are convinced that she would have won if given a clear run. In a race that lacks a certain depth, a chance is taken she may take a further step forward.
We do of course have to mention the former market leader LAUREL. This horse was last seen bombing out in the Lockinge last year, and will have to overcome a 396 day break in order to land this race. If there’s a trainer that can do that, it’s John Gosden, but this would be some feat. She is the potential star quality in the field and on breeding she would be the obvious winner, by Frankel out of the 117-rated mare Promising Lead. Jockey Ryan Moore incidentally rode the dam to Grpup 1 victory in the Pretty Polly in 2008 for Sir Michael Stoute… can we expect a similar performance from her daughter?
Race 4: Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series)
The feature on day 2 is the Prince Of Wales’ Stakes, a Group 1 which features some of the very best horses in training. A mouthwatering contest, but what does the data suggest?
Race Analysis:
The obvious starting place is of course with the best horse in the race, AUGUSTE RODIN. The O’Brien trained superstar needs no real introduction, having landed the Epsom Derby, Irish Champion Stakes & Breeders’ Cup Turf in 2023. That is a remarkable resume, and many were surprised to see him stay in training, and were even more surprised to see him flop yet again on seasonal reappearance. What was more perplexing was that the horse was then well beaten by White Birch last time out. We were therefore surprised to still see that the effort earned him a very impressive rating of 192. This horse is world class and his pedigree stands out in this field. He has his quirks but on his day should take this race.
INSPIRAL swerved the Queen Anne yesterday in favour of this contest, a bold choice given she’d have been many people’s “banker of the meeting”. She will be very popular here but she will need to take a massive step forward from her reapperance effort. Instead, the ratings have actually identified ROYAL RHYME as an interesting outsider for the Karl Burke team. This horse won the Brigadier Gerard Stakes very well at Sandown, showing a fondness for the better surface that he will again encouter at Ascot. He’s a huge price for a horse that has posted a rating of 234 on their last outing, and it will be fascinating to see how he performs.
Race 5: Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap)
Race 5 is one of the most puzzling handicaps of the entire flat turf season, the Royal Hunt Cup. 30 runners go to post over the straight mile, there will be plenty of hard-luck stories, but there is some serious form on offer.
Race Analysis:
With so many runners we will focus our analysis from two angles, form & breeding. For form, it’s hard to ignore the chances of the Ralph Beckett trained SONNY LISTON. Having last been seen winning a good race at Newbury on reappearance, this 5yo gelding looks to better his 2nd in the race last year. Last year he used the same race at Newbury as a prep, finishing 5th, before taking a big step forward a month later at the Royal meeting. This time round he won on reapperance, earning a massive rating of 180, strongly suggesting this horse is very much a “group horse in a handicap”. The issue as is the way with races such as these, is that a 6lb rise in the handicap will demand another leap forwards.
TALIS EVOLVERE, DAYSOFOURLIVES & SEAN all feature strongly on our form data. As for the Wathnan Racing duo, BESHTANI & REAL GAIN. Those two are fascinating contenders and will no doubt run very well.
But we will instead dive into the breeding and arguably there are none better suited to this contest than WILD TIGER. This horse is very lightly raced, having only made 5 racecourse visits, winning 3 of those including his last two in this country. Those efforts in isolation earned the horse ratings of 77 and 136. The latter was a big step forward and he couldn’t have won much easier. But it’s his pedigree within the EquiAnalytix Breeding Data that highlights him as a serious improve. His sire Frankel dominate the sire statistics under these race conditions, and his dam is none other than Antara, a top quality mare who reached a lofty mark of 116, when winning the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom in 2010. She was very tough throughout her racing career over 10f, a characteristic that will be needed for the Royal Hunt Cup.
Race 6: Kensington Palace Stakes (Fillies’ Handicap)
After a 30-runner Royal Hunt Cup, we are then faced with the Kensington Palace, a 25-runner mile handicap for fillies only… but there’s a similar feel to this contest.
Race Analysis:
It feels familar as the market features another Godolphin owned, Saeed bin Surror trained horse at the very top, SUMMER OF LOVE. This filly is very lightly raced, having won twice from 3 starts. The latter of those efforts earned this filly a top rating of 155, but the difference with this race is there are others who have achieved more.
One of those fillies is the Edward Bethell trained ELIM. This horse is equally unexposed and earned a very eyecatching rating of 163 on seaon reappearance at Ripon. That effort has received a major boost with multiple winners coming from the race, supporting the figure of 163. When you then consider the horse can take a big step forward from that effort, and the fact the horse is ridden by arguably the very best pilot over the Ascot straight mile, Jamie Spencer, we are very excited to see how she performs for the data.
Race 7: Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race)
We bookend day 2 with another 2yo contest, the 5f Windsor Castle Stakes, a Listed race which features a very strong field of 28.
Race Analysis:
Like so many of these races, it features a very long list of unexposed types. And again we turn to the Breeding Data which has highlighted an interesting runner in CELTIC CHIEFTAIN. This son of No Nay Never is out of Southern Belle, a mare who was a very sharp sprinter herself rising to a mark of 94. No Nay Never progeny boast the top sire statistics in this race which really looks to lack that real standout pedigree. Whilst the supposed first-string from Ballydoyle is TREASURE ISLE, similarly an offspring of No Nay Never, our data is not as supportive on the dam’s side.
The other standout has to be the Kevin Ryan trained AINT NOBODY. The horse made his debut at Carlisle in May, breaking well and putting in a solid debut display to win by 1 3/4 lengths. On the eye that doesn’t stand out, but a rating achieved of 160 certainly does, and ratings such as these attached to debutants need seriously marking up with natural progression expected. This son of Sands Of Mali is out of the 94-rated Burmese Waltz who was herself a very able sprinter and therefore with the pedigree to back up the figures, can be another smart horse for Kevin Ryan.
Final Thoughts
And that is Day 2 done and dusted. It is great to see such big fields on show at what I personally consider one of the very best meeting in the calendar. The strength in depth is there to be seen and we get to spend 5 days witnessing some of the very best horses on the planet. We cannot stress enough how important there pedigrees are, and you only have to look at the recent London Sales to see that via the amount of money that is exchanged. Our Breeding Data is the ultimate tool for all racing stakeholders, and you can receive all of that via one simple Dashboard. Use the link below to learn more and I am happy to discuss any questions you may have.