A very big welcome to the fifth and final blog for the 2024 Qatar Goodwood Festival and what a week of performances we’ve all been treated to. It really is a fantastic week of racing and having been on course yesterday to soak up that sun, I would encourage anyone to try get there next year.
In terms of the data I have been left a touch disappointed so far this week as the analysis just hasn’t clicked. After a very strong Day 3, we were left wanting again yesterday with plenty of solid placed efforts, without that all elusive big-priced winner. That can all change in the blink of an eye as regular readers will know, and with a thoroughly competitive 7-race card tomorrow, we had better get underway!
Race 1: Coral Glorious Stakes (Group 3)
Our first race is a 5-runner Group 3 contest of the 1m 4f trip and it features a horses that from a ratings perspective, has to be one of the biggest standouts of the entire week.
Race Analysis:
That horse is of course AIMERIC, and a quick scan below will make it abundantly clear as to why. This horse has been incredibly progressive for connections, having risen to an official mark of 108 this season.. but that doesn’t tell the entire story as his ratings have been outstanding. His reappearance victory at Lingfield earned him a monster figure of 201, which was then followed with a 159 in a Listed event over this course and distance. But he then posted a rating of 183 for a narrow 2nd place at Newmarket in the Fred Archer Stakes, and that really is impressive. He has a rise in class today but there just isn’t those sort of ratings to compete with amongst the opposition, and whilst PHANTOM FLIGHT and AL AASY are very admirable opposition, the data suggests AIMERIC is going to be very tough to beat.
Race 2: Coral Summer Handicap
The Summer Handicap is always a very competitive affair and this year has attracted a strong field of 16. With several well-fancied contenders, is there anything lurking in the data?
Race Analysis:
Sometimes it can often pay to follow the obvious and with this race, that means taking a good look at FAIRBANKS. The Andrew Balding trained 4yo is now 5 wins from 8 handicaps and having been upped in trip last time, relished the test and in the process posted a very good figure of 136. That’s a very good level of form and when added to his 166 and 113 on his previous two efforts, he arrives here in the very best of form. On his breeding data, being by Nathaniel can often be a huge clue for these staying contests as his progeny continue to outperform in this realm. Added to the fact that this horse is out of the 113-rated Fantasia, he is clearly bred to have the class to match those stamina reserves.
Given the very competitive nature of this race there are several dangers. The data suggests horses such as AYYAB, GREAT BEDWYN & TRUE LEGEND should all be there or thereabouts at the finish. But instead, the Kevin Ryan trained FORZA ORTA looks to be a fascinating contender who at this stage is being hugely underestimated by the market. Having last been seen finishing a solid 6th in Newcastle’s Northumberland Plate Handicap, that form has received recent boosts and bolsters his rating of 145 for that effort. In isolation that’s a very good level of form, but when you then consider the horse has since been dropped a further 1lb since then, he looks to have a very good chance.
Race 3: Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares)
The Lillie Langtry Stakes looks outstanding this year with 11 fillies & mares heading to post for this fascinating Group 2 contest.
Race Analysis:
We must start with the top-rated mare in the race, FREE WIND. This John & Thady Gosden 6yo has been an incredible servant for the team, having won 6 of her 14 career starts She demands ultimate respect in this race and in all honesty it would be no surprise to see her bouncing back to top form. The issue I have is that the data just doesn’t suggest she will. A reappearance rating of just 123 for a mare of this quality is below what I’d expect and whilst that will certainly be improved upon, she will certainly need to.
Instead, I simply cannot split the data between RIVER OF STARS & CAIUS CHORISTER. The former has proven ultra consistent for trainer Ralph Beckett, and having made a very good reappearance at York in May, she took a nice step forward when landing a Listed contest at Pontefract. That is not obvious Group 2 form but her ratings of 143 and 140 tell a different story. With more progress to come she can cause a stir here at a price. The second horse mentioned would be a hugely popular winner, no doubt because owner Clive Washbourn has told everyone she WILL win! He’s a fantastic character for the sport and puts his money where his mouth is and it will bring the house down if his mare can get her head in front. If you can forgive her effort at Royal Ascot where she pulled her chances away, she would in theory be arriving here having recorded a monster rating of 208 and that in itself is more than good enough to be winning this.
Race 4: Coral Stewards’ Cup (Heritage Handicap)
The feature on the final day is of course the Stewards’ Cup, notoriously one of the most competitive races in the entire calendar. A cavalry charge down the steep Goodwood hill over 6f will see 28 horses fighting it out… where do we even start?!
Race Analysis:
I think it’s only fitting to begin with the trainer of our selection in the race, Mick Appleby. Mick has had a remarkable festival with his sprinters so far, with of course the highlight being yesterday with Big Evs landing the King George Qatar Stakes. He is a trainer that duly targets this meeting his sprinters and this year’s Stewards’ Cup features a horse of his that only ran on Wednesday! That horse is BILLYJOH and under Rossa Ryan will look to improve upon his 2nd place last earlier in the week. The case for him is pretty clear from the data. I gave his performance on Wednesday a big rating of 154 and he was closing all the way to the line. A quick pace is going to be ideal for this horse to travel and pounce late, and being drawn in 4 makes that task easier. My data suggests there is a very strong bias for horses drawn middle-to-low, and that would lead me to completely rule out the current favourite DARK TROOPER, irrespective of his recent form.
Given the sheer number of options here I want to also use this opportunity to flag a standout in the data at the very foot of the current market. That horse is ROCKET RODNEY for the George Scott team. This horse is really beginning to look well-handicapped and showed up well for a long way in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot last month. That day he made his challenge on the far side having travelled well but tired late on, therefore this easier 6f should help him. Having also been dropped a further 3lbs in the handicap will aid his cause, and despite not appearing to be the trainer’s first string… they sometimes get it wrong right?
Race 5: Whispering Angel Handicap
Race 5 is a 7f handicap where we “only” have to deal with 14 contenders this time…
Race Analysis:
Thankfully the data looks to have spoken very strongly about the Kevin Ryan trained JEHANGEER. This lightly raced 3yo son of Kodiac has been incredibly progressive since his racecourse debut in May last year. Having steadily risen to a mark of 93 as a 2yo, he bounced back with a massive rating of 171 for his first run as a 3yo, keeping on incredibly well to win be just over a length. That figure in isolation is incredibly eye-catching and with more progress to come, he look to have an outstanding chance.
Race 6: British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (IRE Incentive Race) (Colts & Geldings)
The penultimate race on the final day of Glorious Goodwood sees us revisit the breeding data for a final 2yo contest!
Race Analysis:
And here we absolutely have to begin with one of this seasons biggest talking horses… ANGELO BUONARROTI. Owned by the Amo Racing team, this horse was purchased as a yearling for an eye-watering 1 million Euros. He therefore went to Royal Ascot with the world at his feet, only to hang badly right under pressure and finish a weak 9th. He has since moved stables, or so we are to believe from seeing Ralph’s name pop up, but it’s his pedigree which is worth persevering with. A son of Justify, who’s continued to produce high class offspring, and out of Curlylocks who’s already produced a decent type in the US. Whilst he doesn’t scream 1 million Euros at this stage, this colt could quite easily make of a mockery of this field and his pedigree suggests he has every chance of doing so.
A lively outsider that is absolutely worth noting is the Richard Hughes trained HOTT SHOTT. He is one of 3 contenders for sire Too Darn Hot in the race and that’s worth paying attention to as his 2yos continue to impress on our figures. The preference for this horse is that he’s out of the 80-rated Moohareeba who herself reached a very good level of form. She did her best work over further and therefore 7f as a 2yo should be about right for this fascinating colt. When you go and look at his debut effort at Kempton, the race has kicked up a fair few winners and so everything points to a good performance here.
Race 7: Coral We’re Here For It Handicap
The very final race of what’s been an incredible week at Goodwood sees us race over the extended 1m 1f trip, for a 16-runner handicap… and wouldn’t it be good to finish on a high?!
Race Analysis:
This racing honestly looks a real conundrum, as even those with the top figures have real question marks attached to them. In any circumstance, both PISANELLO & ALPHA CRUCIS would appear on paper as big lively outsiders here, with respective ratings LTO of 158 and 178. The major issue they both look to have is that they both appear far better suited to a softer surface, and I wonder if their programs this week have been planned around praying for some rain…. which we are now not forecast to get at the course until late in the afternoon.
That instead leaves this contest wide open and is why everyone seems to be latching onto NATIVE WARRIOR who ran a mighty race at Royal Ascot last time. The issue with him is that a rating of 101 just doesn’t scream as obvious top form, and the value has clearly now gone from his price.
Therefore instead I want to tackle this contest with two contenders. The first is DESFONDADO for the Simon Dow team. Hollie Doyle will take the ride on this interesting horse who has been running well of late. Ratings of 111, 105 and 134 showcase his progression and with some ease in the handicap rating, he can go show himself as good on turf as he has been on the synthetic surface so far in his career. The second horse to note is ROWAYEH. Ridden by Jim Crowley, who admittedly hasn’t had the easiest of weeks, this daughter of Dubawi will need to leave behind her a tame effort at Chelmsford, back on back figures would have an outstanding chance here.
Final Thoughts
And that brings us to the end of this year’s Goodwood Festival and I hope that you all have thoroughly enjoyed the week as much as I have. It’s always a pleasure to introduce both existing and new readers to the EquiAnalytix data and I thank you all for the engagements we’ve had so far this week.
But remember, this is just a small taster of what’s available on the platform. The Dashboard is the home for all racing enthusiasts no matter your level of data analysis. There is an angle for every punter, owner, trainer or jockey and if you want to learn more, simply press the button below or reach out to me directly.