Welcome back to Day 2 of our week-long blog series for the 2024 Qatar Goodwood Festival. From a spectacle point of view, Day 1 was a cracker with a mix of tight finishes, and taking performances. Enfjaar looked a touched unlucky in the opener and I’d image if ran again, jockey Jim Crowley would be a great deal closer to the pace. Audience was very impressive having been granted another easy lead yet again, and the EquiAnalytix data was left looking foolish having been a big fan of that horse prior to the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot last moth. We must of course mention Kyprios who smashed the course record when landing a second Goodwood Cup, and this tremendous stayer could not have looked more impressive.
From a data perspective it was a poor opening day, with a couple of key non-runners making it a quieter day. But it’s a very long week with so much racing on show and we move into Day 2 with several very interesting runners.
Race 1: Coral Daily Rewards Shaker Handicap
Day 2 opens with a competitive looking 1m 4f handicap for 3yos, where the majority of the field appear to be very unexposed.
Race Analysis:
The best place to start for this race is actually with owner Mrs Fitri Hay, as her 3 runners constitute 25% of the field! She does appear to have a very strong hand here, and on first glance it would be hard to spit the Ed Walker trained CROWN OF INDIA, and Andrew Balding trained SUBSEQEUENT. But it’s the latter who the data suggests has more progression in him, having won on his most recent outing. That day he earned a very good rating of 143 for winning at Salisbury, a race dominated from the front by a horse called Spaceport. Well that horse has subsequently gone on to win a good race at Sandown and rise to a mark of 92. When you then consider at Salisbury that SUBSEQUENT gave that horse 4lbs and a beating, his mark of 91 looks well within reach. This son of Galileo can progress on here under Oisin Murphy and providing he gets a decent gallop to aim at, will prove hard to beat.
Race 2: Visit Qatar Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares)
Next we move onto the Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes for fillies and mares, a contest of the unique 7f trip.
Race Analysis:
The current mark leader is the Roger Varian trained JABAARA who looks very solid in this field. This horse has finished 3rd, won twice and 2nd on her 4 appearances this season, and the latter effort came when a gallant 2nd in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes. That was a massive performance and largely unexpected given her odds of 18/1 that day. A rating of 143 suggests it is indeed strong form, but it’s still not the highest on offer here.
Eyes will of course be drawn to VETIVER who under David Probert narrowly landed a Listed contest at Chelmsford last time. That was a clear return to form for this filly but preference on the data would have to be for KATHMANDU. This filly has been racing in France the last twice, finishing 2nd on her penultimate start in the Group 1 over a mile, before then being a touch disappointing back in 5th. However, sh’s the top-rated in this field with a mark of 110 and her previous UK-based ratings of 162 and 141 show that this is a very high class filly. Her running style should be suited by this course and distance and she make take some pegging back.
Race 3: Jaeger-Lecoultre Molecomb Stakes (Group 3)
The Group 3 Molecombe Stakes is a race we’ve been looking forward to watching this week as it features a horse we are particularly excited about.
Race Analysis:
That horse is CELANDINE, the Ed Walker trained 2yo filly who has done nothing but improve throughout this season. She is another example of where our Form and Breeding data come together to put forward a very strong case. Recent ratings of 157, 115 and 100 show a filly on a sharp upward curve, and with a LTO 5th under not optimum conditions, we are happy to draw a line through that. When you flick to this filly’s pedigree it’s hard to not be impressed, being by Kingman, out of Pepita who was a Listed winning filly reaching a mark of 99. That’s the best breeding data on offer here and this drop back to 5f looks a smart move for a horse that will likely set a strong gallop from the front.
Race 4: Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series)
The feature contest on Day 2 is the Qatar Susses Stakes, a Group 1 contest over 1 mile.
Race Analysis:
The obvious disappointment here is that the race no longer features the ultra-talented ROSALLION, having met a setback in his preparation. With that, it’s ultimately left both HENRY LONGFELLOW and English Guineas winner NOTABL SPEECH to go head-to-head. No disrespect to the other contenders, but these are very much the two to focus on and I hope that it sets up for a proper finish. The worry here is that the race lacks obvious pace, a combination of that plus a small field of 5 will likely see this race be run very tactically. That in itself could be fascinating, as both of these 3yo colts are sired by Dubawi, with HENRY LONGFELLOW being out of the superstar mare Minding, and NOTABLE SPEECH out of the 96-rated Swift Rose. The interesting part here is that the dam explains why NOTABLE SPEECH has that deadly turn of foot, given his mother was a good young sprinter herself. But for HENRY LONGFELLOW, his mother was the superstar middle distance horse and therefore won’t want this race to turn into a sprint. Tactics will be key on the day and if granted a lead, I would tentatively side with HENRY LONGFELLOW.
Race 5: British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap
Race 5 is a fillies’ handicap over the 10f trip, and with 12 going to post this race has a very open feel to it currently.
Race Analysis:
ELLADONNA is an interesting contender for the James Fanshawe team, as she looks to land a hat trick of victories this time under the guidance of Ryan Moore. She will be competitive but her ratings just don’t catch the eye and with another handicap rise to contend with, she’s perhaps best taken on.
The interesting horse here and one with potentially bags of potential is the Sir Michael Stoute trained POWER OF DESTINY. This horse has only had the 3 career starts, and begins her life in handicaps off a mark of 87. That itself looks potentially lenient when you see her progressive ratings go 119 and 147 on her last two outings. The last run of 147 was earned when running the Godolphin owned Blessed Honour very close at Nottingham, with the winner in receipt of 7lbs that day. With much more to come, this daughter of Sea The Stars is bred to take a big step forward.
Race 6: British Stallion Studs EBF Alice Keppel Fillies’ Conditions Stakes (GBB/IRE Incentive Race)
The penultimate contest on Day 2 is a 2yo Conditions Stakes over the minimum 5f trip.
Race Analysis:
Day 1’s 2yos from the data didn’t perform as expected but here again we will continue to utilise the EquiAnalytix Form & Breeding data to continue our edge in these types of races.
With that approach, a very strong, albeit controversial case, has to be made for Charlie Appleby’s LUCKY GIFT. This horse will likely go off at a decent price and that’s because many have latched onto the re-opposing COTO DE CAZA. These horses, along with BAILEYS JUBILATION, went head to head last month at Lingfield over 5f, with BAILEYS coming out on top. However when you look back at that race, it’s hard to not be impressed with the way LUCKY GIFT travelled throughout, and I am firmly of the view that the bump she took late meant she lost all momentum and chance of victory. The other supporting factor for this filly is her stunning pedigree, being by Dubawi out of Raffle Prize who herself was a twice Group 2 winning filly over sprint trips. Therefore this horse has plenty in her favour and with a frenetic pace guaranteed, she can travel into contention strongly.
A mention must also go to both of Alice Haynes’ horses, KUWAITYA & ZIGGYS ARIEL. The former hopped over to France to earn her Black Type and subsequently ran a great race in the Super Sprint. The latter however has only had two racecourse visits and the most recent of which was a commanding victory at Hamilton, where she earned a massive rating of 167. That figure is a standout in this field and she looks sure to run a big race.
Race 7: HKJC World Pool Handicap
We close Day 2 with a 7f handicap where a strong field of 18 will go to post.. this looks sure to take some analysing!
Race Analysis:
With SANDY PARADISE being a non-runner, the obvious starting place must be with MISS INFORMATION. Ratings of 133, 147 and 109 for her 3 most recent runs, two of which have carried her into the winner’s enclosure, are a definite standout. This daughter of Blue Point just looks to have plenty in her favour, with the only factor that tempers interest is coming out of stall 19. METAVERSE for David Menuisier would be a popular winner and with some very solid and consistent figures of late, he looks sure to run his usual race. But ultimately from a data perspective it looks fairly clearcut and we look to end Day 2 on a definite high!
Final Thoughts
With Day 2 coming to an end, I wanted to take this opportunity to thank you all for your continued interest in EquiAnalytix. I continue to put everything I have into improving this service, and for the 2nd half of 2024 you will see some major announcements coming. But what I remain most proud of, is that this data works. So many of you have joined to access this data on a daily basis, and I look forward to welcoming more of you to our community.