Welcome back to Day 3 of the EquiAnalytix blog for Glorious Goodwood, but unfortunately thus far from a data perspective it’s been anything but! Yesterday we were treated to some dramatic action, none more so than when seeing Raaqiya be rewarded the race in the Stewards room. It’s a very difficult job they have on their hands, but this looked particularly harsh and I know many of you agree. Notable Speech bounced back to top form, with his stellar turn of foot proving critical on the day – having to question why they allowed that race to be set up for a sprint. In terms of the data it’s been a very quiet start, but with 3 days left we have to keep moving forwards.
Race 1: Coral Kincsem Handicap
We open Day 3 with the Coral Kincsem Handicap, a 10f contest for 3yos over the 1m 2f trip.
Race Analysis:
The Wathnan Racing team have been incredibly busy with their purchases, and the current market leader, MIDNIGHT GUN, is another expensive purchase. This strapping son of Kingman has made a big impact on the track this year, first when leading a competitive novice event at Nottingham in May, before than winning comfortably enough at Newmarket off an opening mark of 88. What’s impressive is the fact that those two performances earned this horse ratings of 195 and 151, two numbers that clearly stand out in this field. The form of the recent run has also been franked, with the 3rd and 4th going on to win. When you then look at his pedigree it makes a lot more sense, being by Kingman but also out of the brilliant Group 1 winning mare Sky Lantern. This horse obviously has a long way to go to reach those heights, but he’s clearly progressive and can take another step forward here.
Two horses which the market looks to have gotten wrong here are both BLAKE & AVIEMORE. The latter demands attention with a LTO rating of 155 when winning at Ayr. That day he was very game from the front and looks the usual progressive type for the Johnston team, and at a clear value price, can outrun expectations.
Race 2: Markel Richmond Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (IRE Incentive Race)
Race 2 is the first 2yo contest of the day, the Richmond Stakes. A notoriously competitive 6f Group 2, and this year’s features some very interesting contenders!
Race Analysis:
The analysis here will have a feeling of deja vu given we have to start with the other Wathnan Racing contender, THE STRIKIN VIKING. Formerly trained by Kevin Ryan, this 2yo son of Inns Of Court has been very impressive from his two career starts, the first when sprinting clear in a hot York maiden, before then finishing a very close 2nd to Henri Matisse in the Railway Stakes. Incidentally, the team think a great deal of Henri Matisse and is an O’Brien 2yo to watch next season as a 3yo… and therefore with that in mind THE STRIKIN VIKING has to be winning this race. The performance at the Curragh earned the horse a rating of 165 which is a massive eye-catcher here, but ultimately that is reflected by his short price.
For a lively outsider you must take a close look at the Michael O’Callaghan trained BLACK FORZA. This horse is fascinating, first of all as his sire Complexity has a tremendous set of figures for his 2yos according to the EquiAnalytix data, but also because of his win last time. He landed a 6f maiden at Fairyhouse, beating a horse called Rudi’s Apple by 1 1/4 lengths in total. But that horse has since gone on to land a nursery in commanding fashion off a mark of 90, and has been put up to a mark of 101. Therefore with that form line being very strong, it shows this horse is clearly entitled to run very close here and at a price, can certainly surprise you all.
Race 3: John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes (Group 3)
Next is the Gordon Stakes, a Group 3 event over the 1m 4f trip where despite having a small field, we could be about to see a very taking performance.
Race Analysis:
The reason we say that is that the data is very keen on chances of the current market leader, JAN BUREGHEL. Trained by the master Aiden O’Brien, this horse looks to protect his 100% record by making it 3 from 3. So far in his short career he has looked to have plenty of stamina, which makes sense being by Galileo, and therefore the step up in trip here will be ideal. But it is also very rare to see a horse so young and early in their career earn the ratings this horse has. Figures of 172 and 161 do not come around very often and this very upwardly progressive colt will be hard to peg back.
Race 4: Qatar Nassau Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (British Champions Series)
Our feature race on Day 3 is the Nassau Stakes, A Group 1 for the fillies and mares but this year’s renewal has a hugely open feel to it!
Race Analysis:
The obvious starting place is with OPERA SINGER for the O’Brien team, who will look to leave behind her a 2nd place in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. Being by Justify, the step up to 10f would look ok, but I am not convinced that her recent racing is screaming out for it, and when you couple in the fact she is by a dam called Liscanna who was a 6f specialist, it becomes even less obvious. I am therefore not surprised to see her drifting in the market and mark her as one to take on here… the question is who with?!
EMILY UPJOHN is more than capable of winning this race, she’s the highest rated horse in the field and a LTO rating of 163 for finishing 2nd at the Curragh is proper Group 1 form. The issue is that she does seem to find it harder to win these days and therefore giving weight to unexposed types will make winning just that little bit harder.
When you then begin to look further down the market, and incidentally higher up our data tables, the prices become very big very quickly. Horses like LUMIERE ROCK and SEE THE FIRE have chances of outrunning their odds basted on their recent performances, but instead the data has flagged a filly at a huge price. That horse is DOHA.. and would be one of the shocks of the week if she was to win. She was the winner of the Kensington Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last month, travelling into her race ever so well before leading at the finish. She then went to Pontefract and was amazingly beaten in a Listed contest.. but that doesn’t tell the whole story. She was packed away on the rail at a key point and had to switch around 4 horses to make her challenge which she duly did but all too late. It’s not obvious Group 1 form, but this is a daughter of the mighty Treve and with a pedigree such as that, with a rating of 177 last time out, deserves every bit of respect.
Race 5: Jaeger-Lecoultre Nursery Handicap
The Nursery handicap is up next for Race 5, and for those unaware that’s a handicap contest for the 2yos.
Race Analysis:
It can often be rare to find a horse of real Group quality in this Nursery contest, but there is a strong feeling we may have that in the form of EL BURHAN. The George Boughey trained colt doesn’t have the usual “handicap” profile having won 2 of his 3 novice starts, which sees him running off a mark of 90 here. But evidently the team must feel that this mark is certainly not beyond him, and when you rewind back to his win at Yarmouth, he had some very smart horses in behind him. He himself has earned ratings of 133, 117 and 112 and just scream a horse on a steep upward curve. Drawn in 4 will be no issue and he looks very tough to beat here.
Race 6: Buccellati Handicap
Race 6 on Day 3 is a real sprinting cracker… the 5f Buccellati Handicap where 16 3yo sprinters go head to head. This will be ran at a frenetic gallop, so strap in tight!
Race Analysis:
Pace can be said for many of these, but the fantastically named MC LOVEN takes early speed to a whole new level. He is a pocket rocket for trainer Simon Dow, and the EquiAnalytix team have followed this horse all season given his standout ratings. Therefore it was with delight to see him back into the winner’s enclosure last time where everything dropped right at Lingfield. That was on the soft surface but quicker ground she be no issue. A LTO rating of 157 is a really top performance and he’s lurking here at a good price with a good draw in stall 1.
Given the competitive nature of this race the data shows below several with good chances. KENDALL ROY will be very popular and a rating of 147 last time suggest that support is warranted. The same can be said for both BATAL ZABEEL and NOEL FOX. But it’s the Kevin Ryan trained WE NEVER STOP who looks potentially well treated here. He was dropped back to 5f for the first time at Redcar last month, and sprinted clear in taking fashion. He earned a massive rating of 167 for that, and with the 3rd and 4th horses having won races since, it really supports a big run here.
Race 7: Tatler British EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (GBB Race) (IRE Incentive Race)
Our penultimate race sees us focus once again on the 2yos, where several of these will be making their very first visits to a racecourse… but what does their breeding say?
Race Analysis:
A quick glance at the EquiAnalytix Breeding Data below should leave readers in no doubt that there is a clear pedigree standout here… and that is DREAMY. Trained of course by Aiden O’Brien, this filly has the very genetics you want to see from a top quality racehorse. Sired by the Triple Crown winner, American Pharaoh, this filly is bred to be tough with a clear touch of class. But it’s actually her dam’s side that excites us even more, as she’s a daughter of Tapestry who not only won twice as a 2yo (including on debut), she went on to land the Yorkshire Oaks and reach a peak mark of 122. Now of course this is very early stages for DREAMY and she will no doubt progress with age, but her pedigree is a standout in a field that actually lacks that kind of start quality.
Race 8: HKJC World Pool Handicap
The 8th and final contest on another extremely busy day is the HKJC World Pool Handicap which will see a field of 17 go to post to contest this 1m handicap.
Race Analysis:
This 3yo handicap is full of unexposed types and looks the sort of race to through up a few Group-level performers. The data however has identified two that look to fall in that category, the first is WESTRIDGE and the second is SIR GABRIEL. The former is trained by John & Thady Gosden and will be making his handicap debut off a mark of 88 here. But it’s his most recent run where he landed a competitive novice at Windsor that demands attention. That day he beat a very short priced favourite in easy enough fashion, earning a massive rating of 157 for doing so. That rating alone suggests a mark of 88 looks on the light side, and there looks to be definite progress to come from this lightly raced type.
The second, SIR GABIREL, has a much more taking profile having bolted up at Salisbury last time out for Alice Haynes, and in the process posted a figure of 148. He looks as if he will have to find a bit more to land the double, but he’s officially 6lbs well in and that rating alone suggests he will be bang there.
Final Thoughts
And with that we come to a close for Day 3! We really hope you have enjoyed the action so far this week, and despite the data having a quiet start to the week, there is plenty of time for that to turn around!
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