A big welcome to Day 4 of the Qatar Goodwood Festival, and with us now officially past the halfway mark, we only have two more days to enjoy! And talking of enjoying… readers yesterday were treated to 3 winners on the day, with Black Forza, Jan Brueghel & Dreamy getting their heads in front. It had until that point been a slow start to the Festival from a data perspective, with many horses overturning the form we have seen only last month at Royal Ascot. But the Breeding data has continued to pick out some fascinating contenders and I was personally most delighted to see Dreamy get up yesterday to win. She was a filly with a real standout pedigree and the way she travelled and stayed, she will go onto much bigger things.
But onto Day 4, and with 7 races to analyse, let’s get under way!
Race 1: Coral Goodwood Handicap
We get underway on Day 4 with a marathon, an incredibly gruelling 2m 4f contest that is going to stretch each horse’s stamina to the very limit… but who will stay best?!
Race Analysis:
The definite place to start is the similar contest hosted at Royal Ascot last month, the Ascot Stakes, as that race featured many of the horses competing here. 3rd in that race was the current market leader, KYLE OF LOCHALSH, who stayed on well up the Ascot straight to finish 3l behind the eventual winner. That effort earned him a rating of 126, but it was therefore disappointing to see him not back that up at Newbury next time where he finished 3rd, earning a figure of only 97. The winner of that race was the reposing TEMPORIZE who was a very good winner of this very last 12 months ago. The only problem, is that he will need to do that off a 10lb higher mark this time round and that’s going to be some ask.
The David O’Meara trained GET SHIRTY was back in 4th at Ascot and I would believe he’s good enough to turn that form around at Goodwood as he showed a clear liking for the marathon trip. But overall I get the feeling from the data that those form lines are not the strongest… and therefore I’d prefer the chances of the Hughie Morrison horse, PREMIERE LIGNE. This horse has never raced beyond 1m 4f, a trip in which he’s been incredibly progressive. That is obviously a massive worry, as he will be asked to travel an entire 1 mile further. There are not any obvious clues in his pedigree, as he’s largely bred for middle distances, but when you look at the way the horse travels and gallops, and importantly switches off in his races, he has every chance. What attracted my attention initially is the rating he earned LTO at Salisbury for finishing 2nd, a figure of 132 is the best on offer in this field and the winner of that race has since franked the form. It will take some getting, but he has the quality to land this contest.
Race 2: Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3)
Race 2 is quickly upon us here, a Group 3 contest over the 1m trip and from my perspective this could be one of the most puzzling of the entire week.
Race Analysis:
Like the previous contest, many of these have taken on one another in recent races and whilst that can often lead to form lines being drawn, in this case it gives us more questions. Going into the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes at Newmarket 3 weeks ago, I had been very confident of a massive performance from the Charlie Hills trained SOCIALITE. He had been a real star for our Breeding data, being by Too Darn Hot and out of a 96-rated mare call Liberating. However what happened at Newmarket took many surprise as he raced alone in the middle of the track, and at halfway had bolted clear of the field, ultimately doing far too much under Tom Marquand. That basically led to a complete pace collapse which set up very nicely for the reposing AL MUSMAK to pick up the pieces. That day the latter earned a rating of 163 for the victory, his best of the season. The feeling however with that horse is that he wants more of a stamina test than a quick mile around Goodwood, and therefore of the two, I’d side more with SOCIALITE turning that form around.
LEAD ARTIST can similarly be brought into this picture as he finished 3rd behind AL MUSMAK at Newmarket. But I would prefer to take a chance here on the Breeding data and focus on TASK FORCE. This highly tried 3yo colt for Ralph Beckett began his season in the 2,000 Guineas, ultimately finding that too hot on his reappearance. He was then dropped back to 7f in the Jersey Stakes and again I am inclined to forgive him a little there given the action all happened on the other side of the track, and he was caught behind off a slow gallop. A slow gallop is something he won’t get today with SOCIALITE in the field and therefore when you then look at his incredible Breeding figures being by Frankel out of a 117-rated mare who was a Group 1 winning miler, this track and trip looks the absolute ideal.
Race 3: Coral Golden Mile (Heritage Handicap)
The Coral Golden Mile is the first of the Heritage Handicaps this week, featuring an eye-watering 18 horses that will be charging down the Sussex hill!
Race Analysis:
Before we dive into the contenders, at EquiAnalytix we have began to integrate track and stall biases throughout our data. Our members have exclusive access to our new bias tool which looks back at several thousand combinations of races and conditions to showcase where there are clear biases with runners. The major takeaway in a race like this is that you cannot be drawn high. From 745 races across our database under these conditions, only 40 have been won by horses drawn high. Whereas that jumps to over 100 for middle-to-low, with an actual vs. expected of 1.2, meaning these horses outperform their odds!
BLUE FOR YOU has been well backed so far at the time of writing and you can understand that with the horse bouncing back to form last time and having finished 2nd in this same race back in 2022. He will be very competitive for a team that know how to prepare one for a race like this, but the figures just don’t marry to the market support and perhaps he’s best left alone. Instead, form the data we have to consider BENACRE as having a really good chance of outrunning his odds here. He is on a current 14-race losing streak, but the ratings suggest he’s just about to hit top form with a 144 on his penultimate run, and a 169 last time at Hamilton. Admittedly the winner of that race went onto run very poorly here earlier in the week, but there were excuses, and BENACRE has the ideal draw in stall 6.
With these races it’s often wise to look at multiple angles and with the EquiAnalytix data you know we like to dive into the breeding. With now a couple of non-runners, it’s left the aptly named CLASSIC as the best bred horse in this race from our data. By Dubawi, he is supremely bred for the mile trip on quick ground, but it’s when you look at his 96-rated dam Date With Destiny that it begins to really catch the eye. She was a winning 2yo over 7f and got her black-type over 10f as a 3yo. Her progeny have seemed more than capable of staying that same 10f trip and that will be crucial on the day as CLASSIC will need to be strong at the finish.
Race 4: King George Qatar Stakes (Group 2)
The feature on Day 4 is the King George Qatar Stakes, which is a Group 2 contest over the minimum 5f trip, and the market has seemingly latched onto what it believes is an obvious winner.
Race Analysis:
The horse in question is the Mick Appleby trained BIG EVS. This very promising young sprinter took the world by storm last year when winning 4 of his starts, including the Juvenile Turf Sprint at the Breeders’ Cup. He then showed he had clearly trained on as a 3yo when winning at York on reappearance. However, he was sent off favourite then for the Group 1 King Charles III at Royal Ascot and despite getting his usual lead, was well beaten by the Australian heroin ASFOORA. That day this 6yo mare showed an electric turn of foot late on to sprint past her rivals, and in the process earn a standout rating of 161. On that alone, she should be the rightful favourite for this race, but many are questioning the quicker Goodwood track as a negative. It’s definitely true that front-running here can be an easier task than the stiff Ascot straight, but when you consider that BIG EVS has to deal with the early pace of Nunthorpe winner LIVE IN THE DREAM, this contest may just end up with a pace collapse. And that will this globetrotting Australian mare to pick up the pieces.
Race 5: Regent Seven Seas Cruises Bentinck Conditions Stakes
After the excitement of that feature, we quickly head into a Conditions event over the extended 1m 1f trip.
Race Analysis:
This race is of definite interest to me as it contains a horse I have followed since being very impressed with their most recent performance. That horse is of course CICEROS GIFT who will look to give young star Billy Loughnane a Goodwood winner. Having spent over a year off the track, this horse bounced back in emphatic fashion last time at Sandown, carrying lumps of weight to victory on a very deep surface. That performance earned the horse a very impressive rating of 152, a standout in this field. The only niggle is the surface, as I had been adamant from hearing from the horse’s connections that cut was necessary in the ground, but obivously they seem to think this race is ideal.
Race 6: Hawes & Curtis Nursery Handicap
The penultimate race of the day is another Nursery handicap for 2yos, and this looks no easier to crack!
Race Analysis:
This race does indeed look a real puzzle but I believe there is a potentially very live contender that the market is overlooking. That horse is YES IM MALI, and whilst that may seem a stretch, let me explain. This horse is the least exposed in the field, having been allotted an opening handicap mark for 77 for his two runs. On debut, he looked very impressive at Wetherby, sprinting away from a good field in commanding fashion. However the next day, he managed only 8th and that looks a race where something was badly amiss.
However if you rewind back to that debut, he beat a horse back in 2nd called Territorial Knight who has since won a race and sits on a handicap mark of 86. YES IM MALI therefore would appear particularly well handicapped based on that. But then when you look back in 4th you have the re-opposing BALZARINI, who was beaten 3 3/4 lengths and also runs off a mark of 77 today. BALZARINI is incidentally the horse boasting the highest ratings in this field.
The final piece of analysis to consider is the breeding, which for a 2yo race is ever so important. Being by Sands Of Mali who has made a really promising start to his sire career, and out of the 80-rated mare Yes Always, his pedigree stacks up well. The only snag is being drawn a bit too high in stall 16. It certainly isn’t ideal but with many of the key protagonists drawn there, he may well get away with it.
Race 7: Coral Play Racing-Super-Series For Free Handicap
The final race of the day is a middle distance handicap where we have a very healthy field of 13 going to post.
Race Analysis:
And with this race the ratings appear to have a very strong view on the recent form of many of these. NEW CHELSEA, appropriately named for the Chelsea Thoroughbreds will be sure to run well under a jockey Rossa Ryan who can do no wrong currently. His 148 for a last time out victory at Windsor looks solid form, but is it enough for this?
I suspect the answer to that is no, and instead the ratings of both BLAKE and MIDNIGHT RUMBLE, are the ones that really catch the eye. They took each other on last time at Sandown under very different conditions, and it was the former that came out on top. However despite them both posting very strong ratings in the mid 150s, these very different race conditions and step up in trip can bring out a bit more improvement from MIDNIGHT RUMBLE.
Final Thoughts
And that is all for Day 4 and I thoroughly hope you’ve all enjoyed the analysis displayed so far this week. I will have the pleasure of being on course for Day 4 and so please do make sure to reach out via X and come say hello!
I will of course be back tomorrow for the final instalment of this brilliant racing festival!