It wouldn’t be a major UK racing festival without the thoughts of the EquiAnalytix team via our race-by-race guide! And what a week we have in store with the 2024 Qatar Goodwood Festival. This week is a real highlight of the racing calendar and for those that haven’t been, it’s certainly one to tick off the bucket list. A week of top quality action with the perfect balance between competitive handicaps, unexposed two-year-olds and Group 1 action.. all set in the beautiful West Sussex countryside!
We are delighted to bring to you this guide which I hope will help showcase the power of the EquiAnalytix data. Whether it be the Form data, or our industry-leading Breeding data, there are so many interesting angles and we look forward to spotlighting some of those contenders!
Race 1: Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap
The week begins with an infamously competitive Chesterfield Cup, where a field of 18 go head-to-head over the 10f trip.
Race Analysis:
The best place to start in this race is with the market leader, ENFJAAR. This 4yo son of Lope De Vega arrives into this race having landed the ultra-competitive John Smith’s Cup Handicap at York 17 days ago. That’s obviously a clear standout piece of form, and a rating achieved of 151 very much reflects that. While he may well have further progress in him, a 6lb rise in the handicap coupled with very different expected ground conditions are enough to suggest he may be best taken on.
Horses such as WADACRE GOMEZ & BYSTANDER are also standouts on their recent performances, with only 1pt separating the 172 the former achieved at Chelmsford, and the 171 achieved by BYSTANDER at Newcastle. The clue here however may well be that they were both achieved at all-weather tracks, and it wouldn’t be the obvious prep for a race of this nature. Both will certainly run well and the Johnston stable is always one to watch during this Festival.
Instead, the ratings have highlighted the potential chances of outsider SIR BUSKER. This 8yo will be making his 50th racecourse appearance here, and is starting to look well-handicapped. He’s an example of a horse who has a split mark, meaning his turf mark and all-weather marks differ, in this case the former is 5lbs higher. But that’s for good reason as this former Royal Hunt Cup winner has spent much of his career operating at Group level. On the day, this will be the first turf handicap he’s competed in since 2021, and with Brandon Wilkie taking off an extra 5lb, he looks like he can be competitive. This is bolstered by some very solid recent ratings of 125, 148 and 161, and therefore don’t be surprised to see the old boy outrun his big odds.
Update – Sir Busker has been declared a non-runner earlier this morning, and therefore leaves this race wide open.
Race 2: HKJC World Pool Vintage Stakes (Group 2)
Next up we have our first 2yo race of the Festival, the 7f Vintage Stakes.
Race Analysis:
Regular EquiAnalytix blog readers will understand already the power of our Breeding data, especially in these very competitive 2yo races. Often, these races feature horses that have very little form and therefore all the clues lie within their breeding!
In this field the Breeding data has identified one particularly exciting colt, THE PARTHENON. He currently heads the market for Aiden O’Brien so has been well found, but that doesn’t tell the entire story here. His sire, Kingman, is one of the very best at producing top-rated 2yos, and his data below suggests this offspring could be yet another. But it’s also his dam, Wonder Of Wonders who really catches the eye here. She herself reached a lofty BHA mark of 113 having won twice and finished second in the 2011 Epsom Oaks. She was obviously very capable over middle-distances and therefore you’d expect THE PARTHENON to get much further in time, but he’s bred to be a lot better than the opposition.
Update – The Parthenon has also been announced as a non-runner now, and therefore the breeding data suggests this is now left to ELECTROLYTE for the James Doyle & Archie Watson partnership.
Race 3: HKJC World Pool Lennox Stakes (Group 2)
Race 3 is the Group 2 Lennox Stakes, and you could genuinely run this race 8 times and get 8 different winners, it’s genuinely that open this year!
Race Analysis:
This year’s renewal features KINROSS, who has won the race twice, ENGLISH OAK who made a mockery of the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot and AUDIENCE who looked very smart when landing the Lockinge. But, it’s the Charlie Appleby trained NOBLE DYNASTY who looks the standout on the figures, as he’s done nothing but improve. Having landed a handicap at Thirsk in 2021, this horse has gone on to rise to a mark of 115 having most recently landed the Criterion Stakes at Newmarket, a Group 3 contest where he showed real grit in the final stages. But it’s the rating achieved of 175 that’s the main focus point here, following on from a 151 and 141 which clearly shows this horse is improving for every race. With question marks against many of his rivals, this horse can continue his upward trajectory and step up to Group 2 level.
Race 4: Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series)
The feature of Day 1 is of course the 2m Goodwood Cup, the top staying contest of the week and features a truly remarkable horse, with an even more remarkable story.
Race Analysis:
That horse is of course KYPRIOS, trained by the masterful Aiden O’Brien. The 2024 Royal Ascot Gold Cup winner demands ultimate respect here and it will be a truly huge surprise to see him beaten. A rating of 171 for landing another Gold Cup is the best piece of form on offer, and let’s not forget that this horse was nursed back to health having at one stage been left with career-ending injuries. He’s a perfect example of just how good the O’Brien team are and it would be fantastic to see him land this contest for a 2nd time.
Race 5: Coral Racing Club Handicap
The Coral Racing Club Handicap is the exact opposite of the previous feature, this race contended over the minimum 5f trip!
Race Analysis:
LORD RIDDIFORD will prove popular here having won 4 times from 5 runs at the Glorious Goodwood Festival, but with the expected good weather it would be off-putting for his chances of making that 5 from 6. Instead, the trainer also saddles JM JUNGLE who according to the data has an outstanding chance. Ridden by Jason Hart, this horse boasts recent ratings of 150 and 118 for this last two appearances, which has still seen him drop to an attractive mark of 89. In fact, off only 2lbs lower he landed the 3yo 5f handicap at this meeting in 2023 and so conditions should be right in his favour. He looks primed for a big run in a field which certainly lacks depth in terms of the figures.
Race 6: British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Colts & Geldings)
Our 6th race of the day sees us revert back to the 2yos, this time a Maiden Stakes contest over the 6f trip and it features a fascinatingly bred horse.
Race Analysis:
That horse is the Charlie Johnston trained BLUE PINATUBO. Pinatubo himself has had a tremendous start to his breeding career, boasting one of the very highest average ratings across his 2yo progeny. But what stands out to me is that the dam, Ceisteach, is a horse the Johnston team knows very well. That’s because she also produced a horse called What A Question who last year made a winning debut at Goodwood as a 2yo over 6f… sounds like deja vu right?! This mare has produced two runners on the track, both of which have won as 2yos and it bodes very well for the chances of BLUE PINATUBO here.
Horses such as JOUNCY, and the well-touted I MAXIMUS should not be underestimated here as they both boast impressive profiles, with the former being out of the 109 rated dam Joyeuse. Both will prove competitive but this race is primed for an unexposed type to make a big statement.
Race 7: Ridgeview Fillies’ Handicap
The penultimate contest sees us move back into handicap company, this time a fillies’ handicap over the 1m trip.
Race Analysis:
The daughter of Frankel, STRUTTING, will prove very popular here for powerful connections after travelling really well in Sandringham at Royal Ascot. That was a big step forward but she does have to contend with a 6lb higher mark for only finishing 2nd, and that will require much more here.
Both CIRCE & MERCURY DAY are interesting having won their respective most recent runs, but the same can be said for the hat trick seeking MOONSPIRIT. This horse is one of those rare examples of where our Form data overlaps perfectly with the Breeding data. The reason for that is that her most recent run saw her land an eye-catching rating of 167 when winning well at Hamilton. And this shouldn’t come as a big surprise as this daughter of Kingman is out of the 104-rated Marie De Medici, a very talented middle distance filly. This horse can continue to progress and despite a real drift in the market, looks one to consider seriously.
Race 8: HKJC World Pool British EBF Fillies’ Handicap
Our 8th and final contest on a very busy Day 1 at Goodwood sees a field of 13 go to post of a 6f fillies’ handicap.
Race Analysis:
This race looks very competitive and therefore no surprise to see the market leader at odds of 5/1. That horse is MISS BODACIOUS who a case can be made for having been impressive when earning a rating of 141 for landing a Newmarket handicap last month. But when upped to 7f in better company she looked badly found out, and only a 2lb relief in the handicap might not be enough to see her back in the winner’s enclosure.
Instead, the data has identified the very unexposed DANCE AND ROMANCE, trained by Andrew Balding, as a filly to note. This horse has had only 3 career starts but has earned ratings of 152, 99 and 130, clearly showcasing a well-above average level of ability. She won really at Nottingham 11 days ago when earning that figure of 152, and as is often the way with fillies, the team look to strike whilst the iron is hot and with natural progression, this well bred filly can take a big step forward on handicap debut.
Final Thoughts
And with that, Day 1 comes to a close after a very intense eight-race card. The Goodwood Festival is a true highlight of the calendar and we hope that our analysis has added to your overall experience.
As always, all of this data, plus so much more is available via our Dashboard where users can take their analysis to the next level.