Introduction
The spotlight now shifts to Irish Champion Stakes Day 2025, one of the great showcases of European flat racing. We arrive here on the back of a superb York Ebor Festival, where the numbers once again proved their worth. Across the four days we recorded 28 selections, 9 winners, a profit of +20.2pts to 1pt win stakes at Tote SP, and a remarkable 72% ROI — not to mention our big £43.70 Exacta landed in the finale. It was a reminder of how powerful a data-driven approach can be when ratings, pace, and form converge, and confidence is high heading into this next major test.
Today’s Leopardstown card is stacked with quality. The Irish Champion Stakes naturally takes centre stage, backed up by the Matron Stakes, Champions Juvenile Stakes, and several fiercely competitive handicaps. With the Tote World Pool in play, there’s huge global liquidity and plenty of opportunities across Win, Exacta, Trifecta, and the multi-leg bets to make the most of the angles the data uncovers.
And don’t forget — the Tote’s Money Back 2nd offer is live again today, covering every race. With margins so fine at the top level, that safety net can turn a near miss into another chance to strike.
Feature Focus
All eyes will rightly be on the Irish Champion Stakes, a race that has crowned legends and rarely fails to deliver drama. But the supporting programme ensures no shortage of opportunities: top-class juveniles, Group-level fillies, and competitive handicaps that reward smart positioning. Expect pace, depth, and multiple ways to play into the World Pool.
Race 1: 14:15 Ballylinch Stud Irish EBF Ingabelle Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies)
A Listed two-year-old contest over the 7f trip for fillies only.
Race Analysis
Today’s mammoth card gets under way with this Listed contest for fillies over the 7f trip. As is the way with these two-year-old races, it brings a field full of unexposed horses and personally speaking I think this is where the EquiAnalytix data can really give you an edge. The raw Speed Ratings on show give us a good indication of the standard set by several of these, and clearly the Joseph O’Brien trained TEEWINOT, who incidentally heads our forward-looking Total Performance Ratings, sets a good one. Officially rated 84, this daughter of Sioux Nation has improved for each run, with rising ratings which culminated in a last time out rating of 143. This filly remains a massive price in the market and I would not let that put you off, given the data suggests she clearly has a chance. But the fact is, there are several in here that should really progress past her.
The obvious one, and sometimes it just is, is DIAMOND NECKLACE. This filly made her racecourse debut 35 days ago at the Curragh, putting away a good field in equally good style. But it was the raw rating she achieved that day of 172 that really catches the eye, more so given you often expect Aidan’s horses to improve from their first outing. This figure in isolation sets a standard that most of this field will find out of reach, and I would expect her to take a big step forward here. And if that wasn’t supportive enough, a quick glance at our Breeding data will only cement this selection further. St Mark’s Basilica progeny continue to blow me away on the figures, especially after a “slow start”. His progeny are averaging a rating of 88 across all runs, and to put that into context, it’s equal to the overall two-year-old record of Wootton Bassett! That is some feat, and his progeny clearly have taken on some of his class, and I would encourage everyone to track these progeny very closely.
Race 2: 14:50 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Sovereign Path Handicap (Premier Handicap)
Our first big field Premier Handicap, this one also over 7f.
Race Analysis
We move straight on to our first real conundrum of the afternoon, a very deep-looking Premier Handicap over the 7f trip. A truly open contest here where it’s impressive to see so many large Speed Ratings, figures well above our standard level of 100. Topping the table is PIER PRESSURE for Nicola Burns who will take off a very valuable 7lb with her claim. This horse has been a model of consistency of late and it’s very difficult to see why that run wouldn’t continue. His consistency has been picked up by our forward-looking TPR figures, which has clearly suggested that this horse looks overlooked in the current market. He has however now climbed to a career high handicap mark, and despite very admirable figures of 117, 165 and 140 on his last three runs, there are others in here that have achieved more.
I would expect a big run here from BLUES EMPEROR who represents connections in good form, where the horse himself has achieved solid figures of late. The same can be said for stablemate RAHMI, but on the data they should be the other way around in the market. And this then leaves us with two horses who have posted remarkable ratings on their latest runs, DUNUM & GLENEAGLE BAY. Starting with the former, this 7yo son of Ivawood is treading familiar territory here given he attempted to win here two years ago. That day he was narrowly denied over the extended 7f trip having won on his penultimate start at Galway, earning a massive figure of 170. Well fast forward two years, he arrives here today with a win and a second from Galway just over 40 days ago, and two stellar figures of 146 and 176. When you also note that the horse today carries a mark of 98, 3lb lower than when making his attempt in 2023, the case is very clear as to why this horse can go very close. The Natalia Lupini team are in terrific form, with 100% of her runners running to form, and this horse can make a bold bid here for retribution two years on.
But he will have to be very good to stop what has become a well-backed favourite in GLENEAGLE BAY. At the time of writing, his price has begun to contract and it’s likely going to see him go off a clear favourite, despite a competitive field. On the ratings however, it’s not hard to see why. Figures of 176, 120 and 188 are a clear standout in this field, and his second last time at Galway in behind Princess Child looks even more the stronger given that filly went on to win a Group 3 contest next time out. The form is very much there to see, and it supports that we can take the figure of 188 at face value. With David Egan getting the ride for his powerful connections, this horse will take some stopping and will be a must for all those Exotics slips.
Race 3: 15:20 KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes (Group 2)
A Group 2 over 1m for two-year-olds, featuring a select field of five runners.
Race Analysis
Race 3 brings our first Group race of the day, the Group 2 Champions Juvenile Stakes, another two-year-old contest where again we will be balancing the raw data with our Breeding insights. And frankly speaking here, from a data perspective there is really only one horse to focus on, and that is BENVENUTO CELLINI. Trained by the masterful Aidan O’Brien, this horse will have the assistance of Ronan Whelan in the saddle, where he will look to take this horse’s record to two wins from three starts. This horse seems to have two very important factors in his favour, the first being his standout Speed Ratings of 136 and 135, which are all the more impressive given he is just a two-year-old. These figures are unmatched by today’s opposition and leaves him as the form horse to beat. But yet again these ratings are clearly supported by our Breeding figures, where he boasts a truly outstanding pedigree. Being by Frankel, who on our figures produces the very best two-year-old performers, averaging 91 across all his progeny, but also out of superstar mare Newspaperofrecord. Clearly this horse is bred to be top class, and I think he has been found a fantastic opportunity here to put in a really eye-catching performance.
Race 4: 15:50 CMG Group Stakes (Group 3)
A Group 3 over 1m4f for three-year-olds and upwards, with a strong field of 11.
Race Analysis
While the Champion Stakes later in the card is the feature, I am very excited to see this Group 3 undercard race play out. Featuring a field full of top-quality animals, I find the potential tactics here fascinating. One of the many tools at the disposal of our Dashboard members is our Race Bias data. In here, we give users insight into two key biases in flat racing: the draw, and race position. Now when it comes to the draw here, that is very insignificant given it’s a 1m 4f race, but the race position remains a big consideration. With a sample spanning the last 25 years, we are able to see that it pays to be leading and prominent at this track under these conditions, or importantly, it’s a major disadvantage to be held up. To illustrate that in the figures, horses that are held up in these races have a negative bias of 39%. Now for those still with me, you will wonder why this all matters?! Well if you look at the head of the TPR figures you see AL AASY, the admirable 8yo from the William Haggas stable, whose issue is that he is most often held up to make a late challenge. With this overriding bias they may elect to try something different, but the evidence is clear and at tight odds of 6/4 at the time of writing, he has to be taken on.
Naturally the question is then who with? CONVERGENT has been supported for the Karl Burke team, but the data was disappointed with that horse’s last time out 2nd, achieving a rating of only 116. That is in complete comparison to TRUSTYOURINSTINCT who has achieved something I have not seen for a very, very long time. Three consecutive Speed Ratings of 200 or above is a seriously impressive feat for any horse, and he went even better on his penultimate run with an eye-watering figure of 260. These are outstanding numbers, and while this is clearly a much more competitive contest, his run style and ratings suggest that he can go very close to landing the hat-trick!
Race 5: 16:25 Coolmore America ‘Justify’ Matron Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares)
A Group 1 contest for the fillies over 1 mile.
Race Analysis
The afternoon really starts to heat up now, as we step into Group 1 company for the Matron Stakes, a renewal that the data suggests is wide open this year! The early market has latched onto both FALLEN ANGEL and JANUARY, two top-class fillies who are closely matched based on their recent runs in the Prix Rothschild at Deauville where only a head could separate them. It was FALLEN ANGEL who came out on top that day, and that filly will be looking to go one better this year, having finished 2nd in this contest 12 months ago. That day she was in behind the very impressive Porta Fortuna, but you’d have to think this race lacks a filly of that star quality. The issue I take is just with their respective raw ratings. Both fillies have been achieving figures in the mid-140s, which of course is a fantastic level, but isn’t quite the clear and obvious level that would see you confident in their ability to land a Group 1 contest such as this. They have both played the bridesmaid role for some time, and my concern would be that a race like this on the predicted soft going could just see another turn up.
So when we focus on the data, it becomes quite clear who are the most likely to serve it up to the market leaders. CERCENE was a big-priced winner at the Royal Meeting in June, and followed that up with a massive effort at Goodwood. The ground had gone heavy that day, and she chased home Whirl, yet still earned a huge figure of 194. Now there is an element of the ground in that figure, but having gone “under the bonnet” and manually adjusted that figure, it would have still been a rating of 187 – which is still a standout in the field. She is having a terrific season and the suspicion here is that this drop back to 1m on the softer surface could unlock further improvement. When speaking of improvement, we have to also include the John Feane trained mare, VERAS SECRET. This 6yo will have the challenge of conceding weight to several rivals in this field, but we simply cannot ignore her most recent performance. 65 days ago this mare won a 7f Group 3 contest here at Leopardstown in good style, earning a career best, and race-leading rating of 199. That figure in isolation is outstanding and while she will need to improve again here, she’s a horse in form and can get herself into the places at a big price.
Race 6: 16:55 Tonybet Solonaway Stakes (Group 2)
A Group 2 again over the 1 mile trip, this time featuring a very select field of improving horses.
Race Analysis
A brilliant Group 2 contest up next, and a race where I would say you could put any of the top four according to our TPR figures in your Exotics slips here. ALAKAZI, MUTASARREF and SCORTHY CHAMP all have tremendous credentials for this race. Ratings amongst them of 176, 179, 166 and 158 are outstanding, and should see each of them competitive here. But it is rare you see a horse that has achieved more than that, and one that has done it over course and distance. But JOHAN is an example of exactly that, and his last time out victory here at Leopardstown produced a race-leading rating of 187 which is simply too big to ignore. This Jack Channon trained gelding also has the benefit of playing into this course’s race biases, given he is seen to best effect leading and attempting to make all. A quick use of our Pace Map tool will show you that when you look across each of the runner’s last 10 runs, the selection looks the clear front-runner and being drawn in stall 3 should allow him to get into a nice early rhythm. That is ever so important at Leopardstown, and as we saw on his last outing, if granted an easy lead, he will be difficult to peg back.
Race 7: 17:30 Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1)
The feature Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes, ran over the 1m 2f, this renewal looks wide open!
Race Analysis
And it’s feature race time, the 2025 Irish Champion Stakes. A brilliant race that has seen some of the very best horses of our generation win over the years, but without sounding too negative, I am not sure this year’s renewal has that same feel to it. Of course, no disresepct to the horses running here, as the field still features this year’s Coral-Eclipse winner, DELACROIX, who I have no doubt is going to prove popular on the day. But on all the data we have sat in front of us, this horse once again looks vulnerable, and I think we need to understand that perhaps this year’s crop of three-year-olds is not as good as previous seasons. We had a disappointing effort from dual Derby hero Lambourn last time, and Ombudsman turned the form around with DELACROIX with utmost ease last time at York. This horse is the clear class in this race, but I still think he looks vulnerable and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his temperament get away from him.
So with that we need to dive deeper into the figures to see how best to play this race, and the data may end up looking a little silly afterwards but there are two outsiders it wants to focus in on. The first heads our TPR figures, ROYAL CHAMPION. This horse has been a regular feature of races of this nature without ever threatening to get his head in front, but it was his last time out victory at York that has caught our attention here. Yes that was in Group 2 company, but it was a career best performance and earned the horse a standout figure of 209 which in isolation needs absolute respect. The Karl Burke team remain in top form and if there are any chinks in the favourite’s armour, this could be a dark horse to come through.
The second selection here will require a leap of faith from readers, as we will focus in on our breeding data to select a horse that interestingly has begun to attract market support at the time of writing. The Jessie Harrington trained HOTAZHELL ranks as a horse that has disappointed during his eagerly-awaited three-year-old campaign. Having dramatically won last season’s Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster, this horse looked destined for big things, but has failed to really reach those heights. What’s important to note is that despite that, his ratings of 161, 150 and 150 this season have still been very impressive, and suggest to you that this horse still has that star quality inside him. The key here today I think could be the ground. Rewinding 11 months, Doncaster was more like a bog than a racecourse, and this horse relished every yard of it. A stiff mile victory on soft ground would clearly suggest going up in trip rather than staying at a mile, and the EquiAnalytix Breeding data is clearly supportive of that statement. He remains at an attractive price and if he was to find the form of last season, he could cause a very big shock here.
Race 8: 18:05 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Petingo Handicap (Premier Handicap)
Over the extended 1m 5f trip, this Premier Handicap looks set to be a stern test.
Race Analysis
In the aftermath of the feature contest, we move on to our penultimate race which sees us step back into Premier Handicap company. Over the unique trip of 1m 5f, this contest will no doubt turn into a true stamina test on the forecast ground conditions, and that might just play to the strengths of the selection here. We will be keeping faith with the forward-looking TPR figures here and selecting AERONAUTIC to come out on top after a string of good efforts. This horse has been improving for each run this season as connections learn about his ideal race conditions, and having seen him go so close off a muddling gallop last time at Goodwood, you would have to imagine the potentially slower surface could unlock that bit extra needed to get into the winners’ enclosure. His three recent ratings are supportive of a horse better than this grade, with figures of 164, 135 and 102 seeing him head the field, and his stable remain in top form. There are clear dangers and any of the top five in the TPR figures can go very close, but we side with this son of Gleneagles to relish conditions off a competitive handicap
Race 9: 18:40 Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Autumn Fillies Handicap (Premier Handicap)
Our concluding 1m Premier Handicap for the fillies, featuring as you’d expect an incredibly competitive field.
Race Analysis
Our ninth and final contest of the day as we head into the evening sees a really open Premier Handicap for fillies, where I will admit the data hasn’t really got high conviction on the outcome. ONEMOREDANCE will look to win yet again having had a very productive season, and while progressive figures of 87, 101 and 132 are impressive, others clearly have achieved much more so the data will happily take her on. CONTINUITE was disappointing last time when well-fancied in better company, and clearly has her sights lowered here but will still need to take a step forward from her average figures, despite being the best-bred filly in the race. Then as we continue to move down the table we are faced with a filly who is definitely improving, and boasts a very impressive last time out performance which always needs respecting in handicaps. TACHOS represents the Dermot Weld team, a filly who achieved a very high rating of 175 here over course and distance 65 days ago. That day she chased home two horses trained by Ger Lyons, both of which went on to win on their respective next runs, and one which runs earlier in the card today (Pier Pressure). That looks to be a very strong form line and while the soft ground doesn’t appear to be her preferred surface based on historical figures, she remains lightly raced on it and her pedigree doesn’t show any potential red flags.
🎲 Tote Placepot – Leopardstown (Irish Champion Stakes Day) – First 6 Races
- Leg 1 (14:15): Diamond Necklace (3)
- Leg 2 (14:50): Dunum (3), Gleneagle Bay (5)
- Leg 3 (15:20): Benvenuto Cellini (2)
- Leg 4 (15:50): Trustyourinstinct (3)
- Leg 5 (16:25): Cercene (9), Veras Secret (5)
- Leg 6 (16:55): Johan (2), Mutasarref (4)
🃏 Play the Leopardstown Placepot
📋 Selection Recap
Here are today’s bold selections across 9 races at Leopardstown:
- Race 1 (14:15): Diamond Necklace (3)
- Race 2 (14:50): Dunum (3), Gleneagle Bay (5)
- Race 3 (15:20): Benvenuto Cellini (2)
- Race 4 (15:50): Trustyourinstinct (3)
- Race 5 (16:25): Cercene (9), Veras Secret (5)
- Race 6 (16:55): Johan (2)
- Race 7 (17:30): Royal Champion (2), Hotazhell (6)
- Race 8 (18:05): Aeronautic (5)
- Race 9 (18:40): Tachos (9)
These are the runners highlighted in today’s analysis as offering the strongest data case via EquiAnalytix Total Performance Ratings, breeding insights, and track biases. Use them to shape your Tote World Pool bets.g the strongest data case via EquiAnalytix Total Performance Ratings, breeding insights, and track biases. Use them to shape your Tote World Pool bets.
Conclusion
That wraps up Irish Champion Stakes Day at Leopardstown — a card where class, tactics and smart staking met deep World Pool liquidity to create genuine value.
We came in on the back of a superb York Ebor Festival, where the data did all the talking. Today’s card asked different questions, but the same principles applied: trust the numbers, respect the pace and draw, and lean into prices when the market overreacts.
Irish Champions Weekend continues tomorrow at The Curragh. We’ll be back with freshly-crunched data, selections and Tote deep links for another full day of World Pool action. Stay sharp, and keep making the most of the edge.
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