Welcome back to Part 2 and Day 3 of Cheltenham’s Paddy Power Meeting, and what a meeting it’s been so far!
Readers were treated to 3 winners on the day yesterday, with East India Dock, L’Eau Du Sud & Hamsiyann all posting impressive performances. The first two looked very special, with special mention for Dan Skelton’s charge who looks likely to now head to the Arkle in March. Of course we are yet to know what to make of the Irish 2m chase division, but L’Eau Du Sud already looks likely to be one of the best in Britain.
We move onto Day 3 where we will dive into the data to pick out some selections for our members. We hope that through this analysis it gives you some pointers of how to better use the tools available in the Dashboard!
Race 1: Sue Ryder Leckhampton Court Hospice Maiden Hurdle (Novices’ Championship Hurdle Qualifier) (GBB)
We get under way on Sunday with a novices’ maiden hurdle which features a small field of 5, unfortunately something we will be repeating throughout this blog..
Race Analysis:
Despite this race being largely uncompetitive, especially when compared to Saturday’s stellar fields, it does feature a horse we think looks a little bit special on the day. That horse is ACE OF SPADES for the Skelton team who continue to be in top form. They were treated to a double on Saturday, and this horse can add their tally in a field that really lacks depth. ACE OF SPADES was last seen narrowly being denied at Exeter last month, but in the process earned a very impressive figure of 131, which followed efforts of 105 and 123 prior to that. It’s these ratings that need taking very seriously, as when compared to the rest of the field, it looks a no-contest!
Officially according to the BHA ratings the horse they all need to beat is WHIMSY. This 5yo daughter of Charming Thought is a winner on the flat, but remains 0 from 7 over hurdles and has been at this game for a while now. It shows you just how weak this race is when you dive through WHIMSY’S form, and when you consider that Saturday afternoon this horse was chalked up as favourite, it shows you sometimes the bookies do get it wrong!
Race 2: mallardjewellers.com Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
For race 2 we head into a novices handicap chase which with the current 8 runners poses an interesting angle for some of those at bigger prices!
Race Analysis:
The first horse I want to start with is an old foe of mine, BOB BOB RICARD. Last month at the October meeting, this horse was one at the very top of my list as it appeared the masterful Jonjo O’Neill had lined the horse up perfectly for a novice handicap chase. However as is often the way in this game, fate decided otherwise and a faller at the second last, who thankfully was ok, halted this horse’s momentum and left him with no chance. He had jumped just OK until that point, but it was to my surprise the handicapper generously dropped him 1lb for it. I think this race is a lot less competitive than last month’s and therefore he should be bang there turning in. PEAKY BOY is your current market leader and it’s easy to understand why with Nicky Henderson spending no time getting this horse over the bigger obstacles, after a bumper and 2 wins over hurdles last season. He looks potentially well-treated off 132 but the question mark is how he jumps and when going through his pedigree and breeding data, to me it’s just not obvious. PRIMROZ would usually be a confident selection here with a LTO rating of 165, but in fact it’s actually bettered by other outsider GUARD YOUR DREAMS. This Nigel Twiston-Davies trained horse has mad a good start to chasing, winning Warwick with a rating of 152 before posting a 180 for a 4th place finish here last month. He was admittedly well beaten that day but it was a race in which the leader was given far too easy a lead, and with less pace on paper for this contest I would expect jockey Sam to be far more positive. The rating of 180 itself is very difficult to ignore and in a race with a real lack of conviction for those heading the market, two good value each way plays looks the right approach.
Race 3: Three Counties Christmas Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
Up next is a handicap chase over the minimum 2m trip, which might only feature the 4-runners but it does have a horse we are always excited to see!
Race Analysis:
And that horse is MATATA. Again trained by the Twiston-Davies team, this 6yo son of Vadamos is a real favourite around Cheltenham. Known for his quick start and bold jumping, this horse is tailor maid for the Old Course at Cheltenham and returns on Sunday to reverse the form with CALICO. That day at Cheltenham last month, the latter got the better of the selection by a neck, and earned a very good rating of 175 for doing so. But given the weight difference, MATATA earned a whopping 187 and that was his season reappearance. Punters that day were left wondering if jockey Daryl Jacob set the right fractions as the horse fought back late on. I would be inclined to agree and I think with only a small field of 4, Sam will be allowed to dictate from the front and should be very difficult to peg back.
Race 4: Holland Cooper Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
The Holland Cooper Handicap Chase is the first race with proper depth on the card, featuring a strong field of 12 over the testing 3m 3f trip.
Race Analysis:
A quick glance below will show you just how competitive this race is, and really you can throw a blanket over the top 3 in the market, HYMAC, ABUFFALOSOLDIER & DOES HE KNOW. HYMAC is on a steep upward curve, having won at the track last season and also over hurdles on this year’s reappearance. The Harry Fry team have been quiet of late but this horse boasts solid form figures and has the right profile for the race. The issue is his 159 is for a spin over hurdles on heavy ground, conditions which can sometimes exacerbate the ratings and despite that, other have achieved more.
That then leaves us with ABUFFALOSOLDIER and DOES HE KNOW. These two have proven really difficult to split as the former sits atop of the table below and for good reason. His reappearance at Exeter was really solid, earning the horse a very good rating of 167. The problem, is that the selection DOES HE KNOW is not only the class animal in the race, but he posted a very eye-catching figure of 178 last month at the track. He’s a real fan-favourite this horse, locally trained by Kim Bailey. But at the age of 9 he appears to have lost no enthusiasm for the game, and put in a really solid jumping display last month before tiring late. That day they didn’t really go hard enough for him, and therefore with conditions to suit, this horse can follow up from his win in the race in 2022.
Race 5: Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
We then arrive at the feature of Day 3, the Greatwood Hurdle, a 2m handicap cavalry charge which supposedly the “best handicapped horse in training”.
Race Analysis:
That was of course the quote from trainer Fergal O’Brien on a recent stable visit to visit DYSART ENOS. And really who are we to argue, this horse was once a firm antepost favourite for the mares’ novices hurdle at the Festival, only to have an injury prevent her from running. She had already beaten the eventual winner of that race during her emphatic bumper victory at Aintree, and on Sunday runs off a mark of 131.. and put it this way, if he’s have won in March, you could probably add 10lbs to that figure.
But similar here could be said for BURDETT ROAD who looked to have the world at his feet when winning the Triumph Hurdle trial 12 months ago, before bumping into Sir Gino. This horse was then written off by many, but has since gone onto run a career best on the flat, rising to a mark of 109… pattern level. He gets to run back over hurdles off a mark of 133 and some simple maths says that he was beaten 10 lengths by Sir Gino, who is now rated 152, and therefore that 133 could be lenient?!
Honestly I think both are just as likely to win by 5+ lengths as they are to bomb out. These races are ultra competitive and frankly everyone will think they have a well-handicapped animal. The reason we cannot sit firmly with either is that their ratings just do not catch the eye. DYSART ENOS would be the preference of the two for her scintillating 175 on her penultimate start, but it’s still a big ask.
Instead we will watch and enjoy the race, and throw a “data-dart” in the way of BLACK POPPY for a trainer who just continues to do so well with these types. This 8yo on paper is nowhere near as well-treated as the afore mentioned two, but he does boast a massive LTO rating of 185 which cannot be said for any of Sunday’s opposition. He remains very lightly raced and his last two visits to the track have seen a victory and a second, and this race just looks ideal for a type Kerry Lee does so well with. At odds of 33/1 at the time of writing a chance should be taken.
Race 6: Junior Jumpers Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race)
Our final race of the 3 day meeting is a Listed bumper for 3yos, and after our fancied runner on the Saturday was declared a late non-runner, the data is out looking to make amends in it’s favourite type of race!
Race Analysis:
Saturday’s bumper was taken by a well-backed Irish contender, where the application of cash looked to unlock ample improvement to dispatch a good-looking field of mares, and Sunday’s renewal looks to follow the same path. MINELLA HOLLOW sits atop of the market at a skinny-enough price, but really for good reason having won his two bumper starts in May and June. Winners have subsequently come out of those races, and is the way with these bumpers all eyes then pointed towards our breeding data. Of which I was then very interested to see that his sire Beat Hollow, continues to boast the best rating from his progeny on these NHF races. He has a proper jumps pedigree, has the form in the book and has the services of top jockey Sam Twiston-Davies who readers’ will hope will be rounding off a good day!
Final Thoughts
And with that we come to the end of the 2024 Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham and I hope you have all enjoyed the content over the past two days. As ever, if you have any questions, please use the WhatsApp link in the app, or email me at jake@equianalytix.com.