We are now only weeks away from the first day of the Cheltenham Festival 2025, and that means that several of the key races are beginning to take shape. With the Champion Hurdle having been one of the most talked of races so far this season, it’s a real treat for racing fans to see the return of the champion Constitution Hill to Cheltenham on Saturday. One of the very best of this generation, he will look to use this weekend as a stepping stone on to his 2nd Champion Hurdle.
However, at EquiAnalytix I really sit in the camp that not everything is about the Cheltenham Festival, and therefore I am delighted to see such a competitive card for Saturday. On paper the handicaps look really deep, and the Cleeve Hurdle is wide open this year. There’s some great prices on offer and with the data speaking strongly for several, it looks a really good opportunity to come away ahead.
And therefore I felt what better way to showcase the data than to provide members with our race-by-race thoughts?!
Race 1: Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
We get underway with a competitive Novice Handicap Chase over the extended 2m 4f trip. This opener features a strong field of 8 where several improvers appear to be lurking.
Race Analysis:
That arguably is the best way to describe JAGWAR who based on the data looks likely to give favourite-backers a winning start to the afternoon. This horse is the definition of that old cliche, “the horse will improve for fences”. Having started his chase career off a mark of 118 at Wetherby in October, he has since risen to a new mark of 132 this afternoon but on the figures that looks warranted. Ratings of 140 and 167 for back-to-back victories sets a very high standard here, and his 136 last time out needs a further look given he made a shuddering mistake at the last. Admittedly he was beaten that day, but the manner in which the horse travelled into the race suggests that he may well not stopped improving just yet.
Of the remainder, RESPLENDENT GREY arguably brings in the best form into he race but he was disappointing last time and this drop back in trip doesn’t look obvious. The interesting contender is the selection’s stablemate, BILLYTHEREALBIGRED. This horse is currently two from two over fences and earned a career best rating of 158 last time for a gutsy win at Exeter. I was there that day and he was impressive with how he got the job done over a likely inadequate trip. The issue I have is when you refer back to the breeding data, you’d expect JAGWAR to have much more improvement, especially given he’s from the same bloodline as Il Est Francais!
Race 2: JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Finesse) (GBB Race)
For race two, we have the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial, and whilst it doesn’t feature some of those interesting Irish contenders, it does appear to have a very lively contender from Britain who looks very difficult to oppose!
Race Analysis:
The horse in question is of course EAST INDIA DOCK, and frankly you don’t need to be any sort of expert to pick him out. This son of Golden Horn has seemingly done what the majority of his father’s offspring do, improve, improve and improve. His run here back in November was simply breathtaking, from both a visual perspective but also on the clock, as he skated up the Cheltenham hill to earn a rating of 136. On paper, that hasn’t been bettered by any of today’s opposition and frankly he would need to be well of his best to land this contest. And for those that want to dive even deeper, you will clearly see that the breeding data is fully supportive of his case, with Golden Horn offspring being by far the best of the pedigrees on offer.
Race 3: Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
We swiftly move on to one of the most competitive races of the afternoon, the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase which will again be ran over the extended 2m 4f trip.
Race Analysis:
Now this is a really competitive contest. 11 horses go to post for this year’s renewal and the market equally cannot seem to latch onto one. GINNY’S DESTINY is the current favourite but you’re heavily relying on the horse bouncing back to his best, and off 12st that looks tough.
The ratings showcase a field full of chances, with GEMIRANDE boasting solid numbers before his most recent run, and Irish challenger MOON D’ORANGE equally looking interesting. But it is very hard to get away from the 183 that SOUL ICON posted last time out when winning at Kempton in what was a proper contest. Finishing 3 1/2 lengths ahead of Edwardstone is some effort, and with only a 3lb rise my suspicion is that he’s been let in very leniently here. Now he will have to improve again for the step back up to 2m 4f, and the market clearly disagrees with the figures but he strikes me as a very solid each way play in a wide open contest.
I also want to take this opportunity to flag a new feature to the EquiAnalytix Dashboard, the beta version of our new Pace Map. Posted below, this simple chart aims to give users some insight into how each of the runners has ran previously. Giving you the option of looking at only recent runs, as well as all historical runs, this new tool I believe will be invaluable in giving you a picture of how a race may pan out. And with that we turn our attention to Cheltenham, and what quickly becomes apparent is just how much pace is forecast. Several of these will want to get on with it, including our each way selection SOUL ICON, and therefore I believe it’s warranted to take as serious look at IROKO. This horse has plenty of class, having won at the Cheltenham Festival over hurdles, and on the whole has had a very good start to life over fences. You have to ignore his most recent run where he only made it as far as the first fence, having been hampered at a key stage. If you put a line through that run this horse’s figures are very solid, and importantly he will be ridden off the pace. If several of these go too hard, it could just fall into this classy horse’s hands late on.
Race 4: Betfair Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race)
Race 4 is the 2025 renewal of the Cotswold Chase, a real feature of this meeting.
Race Analysis:
And there is no better place to stay here than with the obvious, L’HOMME PRESSE. This horse ran a screamer when finishing 3rd on Boxing Day in the King George, over a trip which I personally feel doesn’t play to his real strengths. He stayed on well that day, earned a rating of 160 for doing so and really is impossible to oppose here. Holes can be seen in the form of many of his opposition and therefore it’s safe to play the obvious and enjoy what looks to be a cracking race.
Race 5: Unibet Hurdle (Registered As The International Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race)
Next we have the race many will be looking forward to most, as this year’s International Hurdle features the Champion Constitution Hill.. but can anyone stop him?!
Race Analysis:
Put simply, no. On all known form, and all figures, this horse looks to have the perfect prep race before taking on the Champion here in March. With the lack of any serious opposition travelling from Ireland, this race is one to sit back, relax, and enjoy watching one of the very best hurdlers of our generation.
Race 6: Betfair Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race)
Our penultimate contest is the 2025 Cleeve Hurdle, a gruelling 3m race which often throws up the winner of the Stayers back here in March.. but is this year’s renewal up to that level?
Race Analysis:
I think we can safely say that this race is competitive, but I wouldn’t think that Teahupoo will be kept up at night from the result. That’s not means to say that this race is a poor renewal, as STRONG LEADER & CRAMBO bring in proper Graded form, and it’s the latter here that I believe is the one to side with. Having won the Long Walk Hurdle last time in dramatic fashion, you’d be forgiven for saying that his ratings don’t set the world alight. But it’s his pedigree and the breeding data associated with that, that really firms his position. Being by Saddler Maker, this horse’s page is everything you would want in a stayer. He is certain to keep on improving and STRONG LEADER would need his recent wind op to completely turn the horse around to be competitive here, I for one would rather wait for that horse to go back to Aintree in April.
Race 7: Ais Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Classic Novices’ Hurdle) (GBB Race)
We close the day with a Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle contest, the Class Novices’ Hurdle, and you won’t find a nicer set of pedigrees in the NH game than these!
Race Analysis:
Again forgive me for beginning with the obvious but POTTERS CHARM is another that appears impossible to oppose. With proven course form, and a monster rating of 201 for winning at Aintree last time, this horse is as solid as they come. The issue is his price, and he appears very short despite his proven ability. I would be very surprised if he was to be beaten here but there does appear some value lurking lower down the list…
And I firmly believe that comes in the form of the Anthony Honeyball trained KDEUX SAINT FREY. Regular readers will know how much I bang on about the ability of NH sire Masked Marvel, but time and time again his progeny are proving that our breeding data is correct – this sire produces some proper jumpers. And this horse looks no different, having won a bumper at Ascot before going on to win comfortably at Catterick on hurdles debut. Catterick form doesn’t scream Cheltenham form, however that day he overturned a well-fancied runner, and did it with complete ease, earning himself a very respectable rating of 136. My feeling is that his breeding data is so strong that he can take another big step forward here and just may surprise one or two.
Final Thoughts
And with that, we close Cheltenham Festival Trials Day 2025! I really hope you’ve enjoyed going through some of the data on offer for this brilliant meeting, and that some of the new additions and insights have helped better your analysis of the races on offer.