A very warm welcome to all EquiAnalytix members, and a particularly special welcome to those who have joined us recently during the exciting run‑up to Cheltenham!
For new readers, the purpose of these premium blogs is to showcase how the data within the Dashboard can be utilised to better analyse major race events – and, frankly, there is no bigger test than the Cheltenham Festival. With the newly updated Dashboard, new variables and features, I am incredibly excited to see how well the data performs over the coming four days.
But how did we fare last year?
Last year, the data once again demonstrated a very high strike rate in finding winners – and not just the short‑priced favourites that everyone promotes on social media. It identified a total of 13 winners across the four days, including victors in competitive handicaps, highly unexposed novice contests, and even continued its impressive record in the Champion Bumper.
But the purpose of this blog is much more than that. I hope the insights I provide here demonstrate that there is a different way to analyse these races – one that continues to pay dividends in the long run. In a market saturated with tipsters repeatedly promoting the same horses, it’s time for a different approach: the data‑driven approach.
I hope you all have a successful and enjoyable week. Trust your gut, follow your system, and always bet responsibly.
Race 1: Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
The curtain raiser is the aptly named Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. This two‑mile contest is named after a young man taken from our sport far too soon, and I am certain I speak on behalf of everyone when I say it is right that we remember him in a race where he enjoyed his finest sporting moments.
Race Analysis:
We begin the day with the first of what is already being referred to as the “Fantastic Four” – four short‑priced favourites that thousands will have loaded their accumulators with. The horse in question is KOPEK DES BORDES for the masterful Willie Mullins. Having hit the track in a bumper last season, he made a huge impression by delivering an impressive rating of 190 while “hacking” up at Fairyhouse. He then made his hurdle debut at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting – where you can forgive him for treating the race like a bumper, clattering through most of his hurdles yet still exhibiting the flat speed needed to win convincingly. He was much more polished at the DRF (Dublin Racing Festival); and although he earned a lower rating of 141 on that occasion, he was hard‑held and could have extended his winning margin. For me, he appears to be the class act in this race, and this year’s renewal looks very similar to 2019 when a weak contest was dominated by Mullins’ first string.
Looking closely at the data, you might regard TUTTI QUANTI as something of an anomaly – and you’d be right. A last‑time rating of 183 is impressive in isolation, but when you examine the subsequent form and the specifics of that race, the data seems overly flattering. Paul Nicholls hasn’t been having the season he would have hoped for; his one‑month trainer form is lagging far behind his 12‑month figures – a metric you do not want on the lead‑up to a major festival. ROMEO COOLIO is not without a chance, and likewise, the locally trained TRIPOLI FLYER is available at attractive each‑way prices; however, in my opinion, neither possess the star quality necessary to win.
Race 2: My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
The Arkle this year has been filled with disappointment after the uber exciting Sir Gino was ruled out with injury, and now only 5 horses going to post. But it does feature horse 2 from the “Fantastic Four”…
Race Analysis:
The horse in question is, of course, MAJBOROUGH – the Willie Mullins‑trained son of Martinborough who has made an electric start to life over the larger obstacles. Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner fit the cliché of “will improve for a fence” – and indeed, he has – by taking a competitive event on debut at Fairyhouse before recording a rating of 163 when winning at the DRF. That performance was very impressive, and it has led many to believe this horse is an absolute certainty. Under most circumstances, I would agree; however, I would have hoped that the rating of 163 was higher. It leaves me with a lingering doubt about what we witnessed with our own eyes. And when you then turn your attention to LEAU DU SUD, who recorded a monster rating of 255 last time, it becomes hard to ignore. This horse has achieved a perfect three wins from three starts over fences and, in my opinion, looks like a very solid alternative to this short‑priced favourite. He has good Cheltenham form, and I wonder if a speedy Arkle on this quicker surface might suit him far better than the favourite, who appears to be a future stayer.
Race 3: Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
The Ultima is the first handicap of the Festival and is notoriously tough to assess. Often, these horses go on to become proper graded chasers, but my gut feeling this season is that the race lacks some of the star quality we are accustomed to seeing.
Race Analysis:
For some time now, the market has revolved around THE CHANGING MAN, trained by Joe Tizzard. This improving chaser secured a well‑deserved win at Ascot last time, earning a solid rating of 150 – though it’s important to note that day was affected by a short‑priced faller. He still received a small increase in his weights, and despite his recent figures being solid, I am happy to back him.
The two horses I believe are the best bets in this race sit atop our data table below: KATATE DORI and SEARCH FOR GLORY. The former arrives having won a competitive contest at Kempton, where a positive kick down the home straight put the race to bed and left him isolated in front. He is, in fact, the best‑bred chaser in this field, and regular readers will know that our breeding data can often yield very compelling insights for races of this nature. His form ratings do need some improvement, but he is the second‑highest on our TPR (Total Performance Rating), which utilises our proprietary machine‑learning algorithm to predict a horse’s chances. The horse with the highest chance according to that model is the aforementioned SEARCH FOR GLORY. This Gordon Elliot‑trained horse is currently available at a huge price, yet he still has the potential to be the “graded animal in a handicap”. He began his chasing career in graded contests before disappointing on his handicap debut at the DRF. I am willing to overlook that poor run given that Gordon rarely sends any horses to the Festival anymore – preferring instead to prep them for Cheltenham. He will have learned plenty from the experience and is currently lurking off an interesting mark.
Race 4: Close Brothers Mares Hurdle (Registered as The David Nicholson Mares Hurdle) (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
Next up is the Mares Hurdle, one of the biggest talking points in the ante‑post market in recent weeks. With a last‑minute decision to switch LOSSIEMOUTH into this race, is there really anything that can stop her from retaining her crown?
Race Analysis:
To keep it short and sweet: no. LOSSIEMOUTH appears to have been gifted an ideal opportunity to secure back‑to‑back victories in this race – especially with her original main rival now running in the Champion Hurdle. She suffered a heavy fall last time at the DRF during a race in which both I and the data were very confident of her winning. Any horse that takes such a fall requires close attention; however, her ratings prior to that incident had been the best she had ever achieved – back‑to‑back figures of 185 and 174. She is a very classy mare, and I hope she can demonstrate that during this contest.
For those seeking value, look no further than KALA CONTI. I was amazed to see this horse declared, particularly given that she also held some very interesting handicap entries – presumably, they feel she is not just here for a “day out.” This classy mare has won three of her seven races for her connections and, interestingly, posted a clear best rating of 180 last time when she was narrowly defeated at Leopardstown. That day, she cruised to the lead, but when the final flight was not jumped, it turned into a dash where she had no more left to give. This race should be run at a truer gallop, and I can see this mare running a very big race at an equally big price.
Race 5: Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
The feature race on Day 1 is the 2025 Champion Hurdle – a brilliant two‑mile hurdle contest featuring last year’s winner State Man, the 2023 winner Constitution Hill, and a highly exciting mare, Brighterdaysahead… but who will win?
Race Analysis:
The ratings here tell a compelling story. Despite my hope for a second win for CONSTITUTION HILL, the mare BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD looks too good to ignore. A quick glance reveals that she is the only horse in the race with an upward form trend, with her last three ratings showing 172, 179, and 233. The most recent rating of 233 is truly breathtaking as a value, and I cannot stress enough its significance. This was, of course, the value she achieved when she spread‑eagled the field at Leopardstown in December, extending all the way to the line and convincing connections of her quality. STATE MAN that day was not his usual self, and I still doubt he would have come close to matching this mare – and if she produces a run such as that again, or dare I say even better, it will require something very, very special to beat her.
And that could quite easily come from CONSTITUTION HILL. Nicky Henderson is nothing short of a genius, consistently bringing these horses back from injury and into the winner’s enclosure. Having missed most of the 2024 season, CH returned with a commanding win in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton this season – quieting the Lossiemouth supporters and earning a rating of 192. In isolation, that would suggest the horse is back at his brilliant best. However, when you examine his full form, his effort was much lower than the 246 he recorded during the 2022 Christmas Hurdle. He was allowed to need that race after the break, but when he returned to Cheltenham on Trails Day, he didn’t appear his usual self. He was buzzy, highly revved up, and it was not a huge surprise to see him make a big mistake at the end. A figure of 99 for the win is, of course, very low – though he wasn’t extended in what was a weak contest.
I do want to be very clear: if this horse is anywhere near his brilliant best, he wins. He is one of the best hurdlers of my generation, and I would love to see him back in top form. However, my job here is to analyse the data, and clearly this suggests there are significant questions that need to be asked – questions I would rather not address at odds of 8/13.
Race 6: Hallgarten And Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Registered as Fred Winter) (Premier Hcap) (GBB)
The Fred Winter is a notoriously competitive handicap that features a maximum field of unexposed hurdlers – a problem‑solver’s dream!
Race Analysis:
The market has latched onto the chances of BEYOND YOUR DREAMS, trained by Joseph O’Brien and owned by JP McManus. JJ Slevin is riding this exciting juvenile hurdler, who boasts a record of two seconds and one win from three starts. Like many of these horses, she could have been well‑handicapped for this race, but I have several concerns: first, her jumping needs to improve markedly; second, her ratings just don’t seem to appeal in this field; and finally, she only reached a flat handicap mark of 73.
This brings us to the other JP McManus‑owned and O’Brien‑trained runner, PUTURHANDSTOGETHER. Similarly having won one from three starts, this horse reached a superior flat handicap mark of 84 and managed to beat a horse rated in the 100s at the Curragh in July. He made a very solid start to hurdling and has a positive form profile – with ratings of 79, 111, and 135 showing clear improvement. He will need to jump better, but a strong pace on firmer ground will undoubtedly suit him, and I fancy him to go very close in this race.
With such a competitive field, it pays to take a few calculated risks. I cannot conclude this analysis without mentioning the Willie Mullins‑trained MURCIA. This four‑year‑old filly stands out not only for her last‑time rating of 209 when finishing second at Naas last month, but also for her breeding – being by superstar NH sire Doctor Dino. His offspring continue to impress, and this filly looks very progressive. She ran four times in France, winning once, before moving to the masterful Irish trainer. Her debut was disappointing, but she was fancied on that day; therefore, it was no major surprise to see her take a big step forward at Naas. Her rating of 209 is further supported by the fact that the winner has since gone on to win a Grade 3 hurdle by 11 lengths – a solid form boost. And although this filly has a lot of weight to carry, she may just be too good.
Race 7: Princess Royal National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
The National Hunt Challenge Cup for 2025 features a competitive field that will all slog over the marathon three‑mile, six‑furlong trip, but there appears to be one horse that has been primed for this challenge.
Race Analysis:
The horse I have been most excited to discuss is HAITI COULEURS. This Rebecca Curtis‑trained eight‑year‑old has been a revelation over fences. Finishing second on debut at Chepstow, he improved to demolish a good field at Aintree before winning here at Cheltenham in December. That day, he displayed an abundance of ability and stamina, grinding it out from the front and earning an eye‑catching rating of 166. After receiving his handicap mark of 135, he reverted to hurdles at Newbury in what many considered a “pipe‑opener” for March. However, that was not the case – he continued his upward curve by finishing a solid third despite carrying a monster weight of 12 stone on soft ground. He performed far beyond his official rating, earning an impressive 185.
This performance has established him as the one to beat in this field. While I acknowledge the unexposed NOW IS THE HOUR from the all‑conquering Gavin Cromwell team, as well as the fascinating HASHTING for JP McManus, HAITI COULEURS appears primed for a big run and will be very difficult to pin down.
Final Thoughts
And with that, Day 1 draws to a close! I hope you have thoroughly enjoyed reviewing each of the seven races and have experienced plenty of success along the way. It’s certainly a marathon and not a sprint, so I will be back again tomorrow with a roundup and Day 2’s analysis.
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