A very warm welcome to EquiAnalytix’s Blog for Day 3 of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival! Whether you’ve been following all week, or have just joined us after a brilliant opening two days, I greatly appreciate your support.
Reflecting on Day 2:
Looking back at Day 2, I really do not know where to start!
First and foremost I have to say that this wonderful sport time and time again finds a way to create moments that you will never forget. In a season where the sport very sadly lost a young, talented jockey in Michael O’Sullivan, to see both Marine Nationale & Jazzy Matty win was just the most perfect tribute, given Michael had ridden both to victory two years prior.
Quite honestly, Day 2 was one of my very favourites being on a racecourse. On a day filled with competitive racing, and several short-priced favourites, the EquiAnalytix Ratings cemented themselves as some of the very best on the market, finding 4 winners for a consecutive day. But these weren’t your standard short-priced winners – The New Lion kicked us off at 3/1 in the Turners’, before Lecky Watson caused a huge shock at 28/1 in the 3m chase, leading then on to Stumptown showing all guts to land the Cross Country at 11/4, before we landed the fourth and final winner in the feature Champion Chase with Marine Nationale landing the odds at 5/1.
From an analysis perspective I could not be prouder of the results so far this week and I do hope that several of you have reaped the rewards of following along the way.. so are we ready for Day 3?!
Race 1: Ryanair Mares Novices Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Dawn Run Mares Novices Hurdle) (GBB)
Day 3 gets underway with the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, a Grade 2 contest over the 2m 4f trip. In an open looking race, there will be a very famous bloodline on show, but can she live up to her dam’s name?!
Race Analysis:
The horse in question is of course AURORA VEGA, the daughter of the mighty Quevega and by top NH stallion, Walk In The Park. This mare of course has to improve plenty to even be uttered in the same sentence as her mother, but she is the pick of jockey Paul Townend and has a fascinating last time out rating of 172. That figure was recorded when grinding out victory at Fairyhouse in January. This form on paper will need improving upon but she is improving with every run and she clearly has some class in order to visit the winner’s enclosure already six times in her career. Regular readers will understand the importance I place on the EquiAnalytix breeding data, and put simply, this mare is bred to be very smart.
As for the rest of the field, we of course have to mention the market leader SIXANDAHALF who will be very popular on the day. This mare is unbeaten from two starts, having won a bumper at the Punchestown Festival last season, before making a big impression when winning her hurdles debut at Fairyhouse. That performance received plenty of attention and on the eye, she’s the one they all have to beat. The issue is the rating she achieved of 117 just doesn’t support her market position. The same can also be said for the ever-so-popular MAUGHREEN. Ridden by Patrick Mullins, this mare has been immensely popular in the antepost markets, yet again the ratings just don’t excite here.
Race 2: Jack Richards Novices Limited Handicap Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The Golden Miller) (GBB Race)
The Golden Miller 2 1/2 mile Novices’ Handicap Chase is always a notoriously tough handicap to assess, with several horses on a steep upward curve, and many lurking on dangerous handicap marks.
Race Analysis:
Those comments ultimately apply to both of the top two in the market at the time of writing, FIREFOX & SPRINGWELL BAY. I was on course on New Year’s Day when the latter made a mockery of his mark of 145, and therefore it was no surprise to see him get slapped with a 9lb rise as a result. The rating he achieved also that day of 92 just doesn’t stand out on paper, and my suspicion is he may find life a bit difficult here, despite clear market confidence. FIREFOX is attempting to be the “graded horse in a handicap”, but his ratings are erratic and I think this race will be won by something lower in the weights.
A horse that interests me from the data is Ben Pauling’s PIC ROC. Ridden by Ben Jones, This horse has made amends after falling on chase debut at Carlisle, running well into 2nd on both subsequent starts. Progressive ratings of 123 and 136 for those efforts show a horse improving, and I feel the slight drop back in trip from Newbury, along with a good gallop, is exactly what this horse needs. Connections are often seen to best effect in these trappy handicaps and off a very competitive handicap mark, this horse’s figures suggest he may well outrun double-digit odds.
Race 3: Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
The Pertemps in my opinion is the most difficult race to find a winner in all season. A cavalry charge field, all going over 3 miles with a qualifying system that lends itself to horse’s being “lined up”.. it’s a minefield! But there are a couple of interesting sorts here at huge odds…
Race Analysis:
Most will be glued to the market before the off and in truth, for a race of this nature, that is not a bad strategy. Late market confidence can always suggest a big run from a horse, but I would echo caution given that 6 of the last 10 winners of this race have started at odds of 10/1 or bigger, with two of them starting at 25/1.
JP McManus always has a strong hand in this race, and both JERIKO DU REPONET & WIN SOME LOSE SOME look solid contenders this year. Both boast good ratings in their prep runs for this and I would not be surprised if either were to go land the spoilt. Preference would be with the former, as the masterful Nicky Henderson has undergone a redemption mission with this horse having formerly been fancied for the Supreme!
UK-based runners have a mixed record in this race and therefore it may be to some surprise to hear that the data believes both BUGISE SEAGULL & IDEM are two fascinating contenders. The former has previously been placed in Grade 1 company, finishing near 11 lengths behind Brighterdaysahead at Aintree last season. Since, the horse has relished the step up to 3 miles, finishing 2nd and 3rd on his last two efforts. But it’s the figures he has achieved in doing so, having carried lots of weight he recorded ratings of 196 and 185 for those runs. Those are very serious figures, and despite them, the handicapper has been fairly reluctant to increase his mark. Off 139 I believe this horse can outrun enormous odds. The same argument is made for IDEM. The team landed a very nice touch in the Ultima on Tuesday, and they’re operating at a very high level of form right now. This horse ran in the same race as my other selection at Musselburgh, doing all his best work late on and ultimately protecting his mark of 128. Both these horses are on upward curves and at huge odds, a chance must be taken.
Race 4: Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy) (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
The Ryanair is always a real favourite at the Festival and over this 2m 4f trip on the New Course, we have been treated to some top performances, and this year looks to be no different!
Race Analysis:
The main story here will be FACT TO FILE redirecting from the Gold Cup to this contest, and in fairness, you cannot blame connections. He has shown on his last two efforts that he is no match for current Gold Cup favourite Galopin Des Champs, and also looked to be a non-stayer over that 3 1/4 mile trip. It will however be interesting to see him back over this shorter trip on proper spring ground on the new course, and the combination of those things plus some below par recent ratings make me want to take him on.
He is the class animal in the field, but I am fascinated to see IL EST FRANCAIS run at Cheltenham. Having agonisingly missed out in the King George at Kempton, this intermediate 2m 4f trip looked the obvious choice. His two ratings achieved in the UK of 191 and 182 are top class, and if handling this undulating track I think he can get away from the front. What’s most interesting is that based on our all historical analysis, front runners on the new course over fences on good to soft ground, have a 56% edge vs. Market expectations. Meaning if you’d backed every single front-runner in these races with these conditions, you’d have expected to make 1.56 your money. That’s a significant edge and this is a potentially very smart chaser.
Race 5: Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
The feature contest on Day 3 is the Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle, the top 3 mile hurdle contest of the season and features last year’s winner Teahupoo, but can anyone get near him?!
Race Analysis:
I will try keep this short and sweet as the data suggests the answer is no, TEAHUPOO looks to have a perfect opportunity to collect back-to-back Stayers Hurdles. On official BHA ratings the field has plenty to find with this horse, and when you look at my EquiAnalytix speed ratings, they suggest the exact same. His reappearance this season came when beaten by star mare Lossiemouth, who landed the mares hurdle earlier this week, yet still earned this horse a rating of 182. That is the perfect prep for this race and the figure in isolation is just far superior to this year’s opposition.
Race 6: TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
Our penultimate race of Day 3 is the Plate Handicap, a very competitive race over the intermediate 2m 4f trip.
Race Analysis:
This year’s renewal looks incredibly open, and despite a fairly short-priced favourite in the form of JAGWAR, this race could go to anyone. The current market leader has earned his spot after winning 3 of his 3 chase starts, most notably over course and distance on Cheltenham Trials Day. Under most circumstances that would lead me to believe that this horse has an excellent chance of making it 4 wins, but his ratings don’t quite match the level of market confidence. Each run has been slightly worse in terms of the raw figures, and I would now worry that a mark of 139 might be beyond him. He is certainly bred for this game and can improve further, but in terms of risk and reward the data suggests to avoid this horse.
Instead, we will be taking a chance on two lively outsiders, with one of them a regular in this exact race. That horse is SHAKEM UPARRY for Ben Pauling and Kielan Woods. This horse landed this contest 12 months ago off a mark just 2lbs lower than this year, but in fact it’s his last time out prep race rating of 200 that catches the eye. The horse has a real liking for Cheltenham and this new course in particular, which can often be quite a specialists chase course. At odds of 20/1 this horse must have a great chance of going close to making it back-to-back victories.
The second horse I want to focus in on is Gavin Cromwell’s PATH DOROUX. This horse is a model of consistency having finished 1st, 3rd and 2nd on his last 3 racecourse appearances, but in the process has achieved figures of 37, 52 and then a monster 167. That latter performance is a real standout and bounce back to form for the horse, who has often been banging on the door in top handicaps. He finished 3rd in the Grand Annual at the Festival last year off a mark of 142, and despite now having a 3lb higher mark, his most recent run warrants that. What also interests me is the step up in trip for this horse. The latter performances suggest that’s exactly what this horse might need now, and being by Coastal Path the EquiAnalytix breeding data suggests it’s the correct move.
Race 7: Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys Handicap Chase (Spon By Thames Materials) (GBB)
Day 3 closes with the Kim Muir, a chase event ran over the Gold Cup trip for Amateur Jockeys. A fiercely competitive handicap but there’s an interesting piece of analysis here that may hold the key.
Race Analysis:
That piece of analysis surrounds the current market leader WALKING ON AIR. On any other circumstance, seeing a sea of blanks next to a horse’s name would lead you to put a line straight through their chances. But this horse left a such an impression on me that I had to dive closer into the figures. Having recently been acquired by the Gary Brown stable, this 8yo son of Walk In The Park was running a brilliant race in the Great Yorkshire Handicap at Doncaster, making his challenge wide and going a length up approaching the final fence. Having jumped that fence well, the horse knuckled on landing and was a desperately unlucky faller with the race at his mercy. The eventual winner, Docpickedme, was carrying 1lb less and achieved a rating of 146. Therefore on my calculations assuming a 1/2 length victory, I would’ve given WALKING ON AIR a rating of 152 and that itself would’ve put this horse on top of this field. Therefore I feel the market confidence is warranted for this horse.
Final Thoughts
This Festival so far has been nothing short of fantastic, and I am ever so thankful to every one of you for your continued support. It’s been an absolute pleasure putting these blog posts together for so many existing and new members, and I look forward to finishing the week strongly!