A very big welcome to EquiAnalytix and our Day 2 blog for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival—and after yesterday’s results, an extra warm welcome to our new readers!
Reflecting on Day 1:
Yesterday, I was very proud to see the data come to the fore and break down some of the most competitive races. Early winners such as Kopek Des Bordes—cementing himself as an exciting novice hurdler—and Lossiemouth, who simply oozed class in the Mares, set the tone for a dramatic day. Notably, we witnessed one of the most memorable Champion Hurdles of my time: Constitution Hill fell early, and Brighterdaysahead looked like a completely different animal compared to her Leopardstown win, leaving last year’s champion, State Man, at the mercy of the race—only to be asked for a long one at the final hurdle and ultimately fall. A huge congratulations to the connections of Golden Ace; as the old saying goes, “you’ve got to be in it to win it.”
Adding to the excitement, back‑to‑back winners in the final two handicaps—Puturhandstogether (17/2) and Haiti Couleurs (7/2)—cemented a tremendous opening day. A brilliant start to the Festival, and I thoroughly hope many of you shared in that success!
And with that, we move onto Day 2.
Race 1: Turners Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
We begin Day 2 with the Turners’ Novices’ Hurdle – a Grade 1 contest over a 2-mile 4-furlong trip. With all eyes on Monday’s declarations, we finally witness the clash we’ve all been eagerly awaiting.
Race Analysis:
The battle is set between FINAL DEMAND and THE NEW LION, with the data firmly favouring the latter. FINAL DEMAND is likely to be all the rage after an impressive win at the DRF last month, where he travelled superbly and left his rivals behind—earning a solid rating of 121 after an impressive debut of 154. Although FINAL DEMAND is tough to beat under normal circumstances, the data suggests that THE NEW LION may improve further. The current Challow Hurdle winner has been outstanding, recording ratings of 146, 129, and 143 in his last three racecourse appearances (with his most recent effort being hard‑held under jockey Harry Skelton). While the team might have been disappointed that Leau Du Sud couldn’t capitalise on a mistake from Majborough yesterday, this new JP McManus runner appears classy and determined to make amends on Day 2.
Race 2: Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Next up is the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – a 3‑mile contest that has often produced future Gold Cup contenders. However, this year’s renewal appears to lack the star quality seen in previous editions.
Race Analysis:
Admittedly, the ratings in this race aren’t as high as in past years. Nevertheless, there is an obvious standout: BALLYBURN from the all‑conquering Willie Mullins team. Ballyburn made a huge impression at last year’s Festival and was arguably one of the more impressive winners of the week. This year, having been sent chasing, his performances have raised a few questions as he’s had to work considerably harder than expected. Despite that, his ratings of 118, 164, and 156 mark him as a strong contender.
For the other runners, making a winning case is tougher. DANCING CITY appears to be a decent animal, yet there’s more to be found. In fact, the data clearly highlights LECKY WATSON as a lively outsider. Although he might be positioned low in Willie Mullins’ pecking order on paper, his recent chase runs – recording ratings of 131 and 156 – demonstrate clear improvement. Bred by Valirann, he is designed to improve over fences, and his potential ceiling may still be ahead of him, especially at attractive odds of 20/1.
Race 3: Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
The Coral Cup is always a notoriously difficult race to analyse, with a humongous field of contenders, several of which lurking on very attractive handicap marks, and this year is no different!
Race Analysis:
Races like the Coral Cup are notoriously difficult to assess, but that’s where the data comes in handy to create a shortlist of contenders. A quick glance at the table makes it hard to ignore AL GASPARO’s last-time performance. This Gavin Cromwell‑trained horse posted an eye‑catching rating of 192 when winning at Leopardstown in December, battling on strongly despite multiple challengers. The trip appears to suit him well, and despite an increase in the weights, that impressive figure remains hard to ignore at long odds.
Meanwhile, the market has latched onto the Willie Mullins stable, particularly favouring jockey Paul Townsend’s ride on BUNTING. Similarly, although the Skeltons have BE AWARE—a race they traditionally excel in—the data reveals another Joseph O’Brien horse as intriguing. That horse is COMFORT ZONE, the choice of top jockey Mark Walsh. While his TPR might be lower than some rivals, his last‑time rating of 187, recorded behind AL GASPARO, stands out. In my view, this race holds the key to the Coral Cup, and with the stable in red‑hot form and COMFORT ZONE lurking on an attractive mark, all signs point toward a significant run.
Race 4: Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
The Cross Country race of the Festival has a slightly different look this year as the powers that be have reverted this race to a handicap.
Race Analysis:
And with the knowledge, it pays to analyse this race a little differently from the years of old, where horses such as Tiger Roll and Delta Work used to dominate. And given also that several of these have little experience over this unique course, it pays to follow the course data and that leads us to STUMPTOWN, a horse I believe to still be underestimated in the market. This horse ran over this unique course in December, when oozing class and winning as he liked off a mark of 149. An 8lb rise is going to require improvement, his rating of 140 for that effort suggests he can do just that.
Race 5: BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)
Race 5 is the feature contest of Day 2—the Queen Mother Champion Chase. This race promises plenty of excitement, but the big question remains: can anyone get close to JONBON?
Race Analysis:
Despite sitting atop of our TPR figures, I think the play is to take JONBON on here, and I have several reasons to do so. JONBON is no doubt a superstar of the National Hunt game, and he has wrongly received plenty of criticism in a 20 race career in which he’s only been beaten 3 times. That in itself is truly remarkable and I would be the first to clap this horse back into the winner’s enclosure here. However, his figures have taken a downturn vs. His previous highs, with 154, 157 and 153 not being the best in this field. Despite him jumping well on the whole during those performances, he still has questions to answer at Cheltenham and with this race set to be ran at a frenetic pace, the short odds on offer just don’t appeal.
Instead, the data suggests that the key piece of form on offer for this race was ran at the DRF, where SOLNESS got the better of MARINE NATIONALE. It may surprise many to see the latter as the selection here but despite SOLNESS’ superior last time out rating of 217, MARINE NATIONALE has the proven course form and the race looks like it will be ran to suit. This Barry Connell trained gelding would of course be a very fitting winner, but I have been impressed with the progress he has made over fences, and if he had been ridden closer to the pace at the DRF I would have expected him to win. He still boasts ratings of 203 and 209 on his last two starts, and my expectation is that with plenty of pace, and a return to this track, he can cause a nice surprise at an attractive price.
Race 6: Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase
The Grand Annual is always a brilliant spectacle, with a maximum field of 2m chasers going a frenetic gallop. This year’s renewal looks a real conundrum, but what does the data suggest?!
Race Analysis:
Before we get into the data, it’s important to note the market support for last year’s winner UNEXPECTED PARTY for the Skeltons. This horse has a solid enough profile back in this race, and many have suggested he has been primed to reach top form here. The issue I have is that his higher mark will demand much more than what he’s shown, and his moderate ratings support that.
Instead we will look elsewhere and with questions surrounding the handicap mark for AMERICAN MIKE, MY MATE MOZZIE looks primed for a massive run here in my opinion. Ratings of 165 and 143 on his last two efforts put this horse very high up the data shortlist, and with powerful connections in top form, the stage is set for another big run. The pace of this race should be ideal for the horse, and I would implore you to go and watch where this horse came from to make his effort in the DRF. He was never really put into the race and to me gave the impression that he is approaching top form.
In a race such as this it can often pay to look a little further down the list, and no surprise to say that the 178 recorded by DANCING ON MY OWN has really caught my eye. This horse has now turned 11, but according to the data he’s shown no lack of love for the game, with his rating of 178 following two solid efforts in the 130s. His monster last effort also came over course and distance, where he carried 12 stone when finishing 3rd, 5 1/2 lengths behind Matata who is now rated 161. Now it’s hard to believe that this horse is still improving, but I think he looks a solid option in an open contest and if you can overlook Henry De Bromhead’s disappointing effort in the Supreme, he has to go close.
Race 7: Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1) (GBB Race
We end Day 2 with the 2025 Champion Bumper, and for new readers you will have to forgive me as it’s a race myself and the data absolutely love to analyse!
Race Analysis:
The key reason for this is that in contests like this, where this is very little form to go by, the breeding data can often provide the keys to unlocking the most likely winner. Willie Mullins is of course most people’s starting point for a race of this nature, as his record is tremendous. He looks to hold a very strong hand with market leader COPACABANA, the well-fancied GAMEOFINCHES and the unbeaten BAMBINO FEVER. It would be no surprise to see any 3 of these lands the spoils and it’s the former that has been chosen by Patrick Mullins.
But the data here has a very strong opinion of a horse that could turn out to be quite special. That horse is KALYPSOCHANCE. Trained by Gordon Elliott, this horse is currently two from two in bumpers and arrives with the standout rating of 182 for his latest victory. That was achieved in a strong looking Listed contest at Navan in December, where the horse showed an electric turn of foot under the unusual assistance of jockey Patrick Mullins. That rating in isolation is serious, but when members then refer to the breeding data it begins to paint an even stronger picture. This horse is by one of the most exciting sires in the National Hunt game right now, Masked Marvel. His progeny has continued to perform to a very high level across the board, in particular in bumpers, and have been horses I have personally followed all year. KALYPSOCHANCE looks every bit like his sire, strong, determined yet possessing an electric turn of foot which is required in a race such as this. At the prices, he looks a very solid selection.
Final Thoughts
I hope that Day 2 delivers another round of drama and surprises at the Cheltenham Festival. The data – driven approach has so far proven its worth in identifying emerging talents, exposing hidden value, and reaffirming the strengths of our new Dashboard.
As we gear up for Day 3, I remain excited about the trends and breakthroughs yet to come. Thank you for following along, and here’s to another day of thrilling racing and smart, data‑driven betting decisions!