First and foremost, Happy New Year!
I hope that you all had a good night celebrating wherever you are in the World!
It wouldn’t be a start to the New Year without the classic New Year’s Day meeting at Cheltenham, a real family fun day sprinkled with some top quality racing. I wanted to take this moment to quickly reflect on 2024 and thank everyone here for their continued support. This year saw the launch of our iOS Mobile App which has been received incredibly positively, and if you’re reading this through the app now, a special thank you to you. I have some big plans for EquiAnalytix during 2025 and cannot wait to share them with you all, but before I do let’s find dive into the analysis that you’ve all been waiting for!
Race 1: Sonic The Hedgehog 3 In Cinemas Now Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
First up, we have the novices limited handicap Chase, a contest over 2 miles, that only sees three runners going head-to-head.
Race Analysis:
The market seems to revolve around the Paul Nicholls trained KALIF DU BERLAIS. This horse obviously made a very big impression over hurdles last season, and looked just as good over fences last time, having fell on debut at Carlisle in November. On his most recent appearance, the horse won at Newbury recording a rating of 122 for that effort which is a standout in this field today.
However this race really seems to come down to breeding and our breeding data often excels in these types of races. What is therefore most interesting is that the top two in the market are sired by two of the most exciting NH sires in the game right now, Masked Marvel and Doctor Dino. The former is the sire of the selection KALIF DU BERLAIS, whilst Doctor Dino is the sire of the second favourite of VINCENZO. A study of the table below will show you that Masked Marvel progeny excel over fences and gives extra impetus to KALIF DU BERLAIS’s chances today albeit, he goes off at a short price.
Race 2: Richmond Villages And Bupa Care Homes Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
Race two, we have a maiden hurdle contest over 2 1/2 miles.
Race Analysis:
A quick glance at the market will suggest that this race has already been run with DIVA LUNA a very short price favourite, having finished first on her two runs in bumpers before finishing second at Lingfield in December on hurdles debut. This horse obviously set a very high standard of form and will be very tough to beat on the day, and with a rating of 108 last time, sets a fairly decent level. The issue we have is that that 108 in isolation isn’t that impressive a number and opens the door to more unexposed types to go onto achieve more.
In these races again we tend to lean on our breeding data and a quick glance at the table below will show you that the Ollie Murphy trained PIERROT JAGUEN is sired by a horse that needs no introduction, Saint Des Saints. This French sire has produced some of the very best in the NH sphere, including Fastorslow, Djakadam & Protektorat. Now I am not for one moment suggesting this horse is at their level, but he is regally bred and represents the all-conquering Ollie Murphy team with the red-hot Sean Bowen in the saddle. Therefore at a price currently of around 7/2, he looks a good opposition to the market leader
Race 3: Betfair Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
Race three is the Betfair Handicap Chase run over a gruelling extended 3 miles for horses rated 0 to 150.
Race Analysis:
Regular racegoers at Cheltenham will be used to these types of staying contests, however what’s different today is that we have an incredibly small field of five that go to post. This leaves the race looking fairly uncompetitive, however a quick glance below at the ratings suggest that this is a little bit more open that many may believe.
CHANTRY HOUSE has been one of those horses for Nicky Henderson that many have seemed to follow off a cliff, having reverted back to hurdles more recently having had a mixed career over fences. He goes back over the bigger obstacles today with a large point to prove albeit he does have a mark of 149 now. That is far below the level that he once reached over fences before.
However what I think is most interesting to look at in these types of races is the EquiAnalytix bias data. Opening up the Bias tool which is available to all premium subscribers on the Dashboard, you’re able to get an understanding of how previous contests have been ran and won. A glance below will show you that in staying chase contests on this type of going, horses that have led have actually won far more races than the market expected. In fact from a total of 524 runs there have been 89 front-running winners whereas the market only expected 66 of those horses to win, yielding an actual versus expected of 1.36. This might not seem like a lot but a 36% bias is a very meaningful figure and suggests that we should be looking at those horses that are likely to be prominent throughout.
And therefore all fingers point towards BROADWAY BOY, who despite being a short price has achieved figures of 131 and 180 on his last two efforts as well as being a proven front-runner. With a smaller field, he should find this contest a little bit easier to dominate from the front and I would likely expect him to stay there throughout.
Race 4: Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
The feature race on the day is the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase, a Premier handicap ran over the classic 2 1/2 mile trip which this time sees a rather competitive field going going to post.
Race Analysis:
Followers of EquIAnalytix were rewarded at the recent Cheltenham December meeting as GEMIRANDE was fancied to run very well and duly obliged to land the feature Gold Cup. That day he recorded a rating of 142 which by any account is a very solid figure. This horse is a solid jumping front-runner, likes the track and has only gone up 8lbs for in the handicap for winning. You’d like to think there might be a little bit more improvement in the horse, but that being said he’s an awful lot skinnier in the market than he was last time and therefore it may well be better to look elsewhere in what is a competitive renewal.
The Jonjo O’Neill Train SPRINGWELL BAY is a horse that we have followed for some time. This horse made an encouraging start to life over fences having having won on debut at Chepstow. He followed that up by finishing third in a very hot race here at the November meeting, then going one better to finish second at the December meeting only a few weeks ago. That day he raced prominently and made his effort turning for home, but was ultimately outclassed up the hill, to finish behind Jango Baie, a very impressive winner. That effort still earned the horse a rating of 158 which if you look at the table below is a clear stand out on recent efforts. I think the horse will be very difficult to beat with natural progression coming
There is however another that I think deserves a mention here, and is currently sat at a much bigger price. That horse is MARBLE SANDS for the David Killahena & Grahame McPherson team. This horse has far more chase experience, having made his debut a winning one back in November 2023. Since then he’s mixed it up between running over fences where he’s got himself to a mark of 144 and also run respectively on the flat. What was most impressive was his run at Carlisle in November where the horse travelled very well throughout the race and picked up nicely to win going away. That race was a listed contest and earned the horse a rating of 168. He then went onto Newcastle at the end of November, earning a rating of 143 for finishing third that day. Despite being well beaten by the front two, they just seemed to get far to much rope out front, and if you go and look back at the race you’d see how this horse was given far too much to do and arguably was given an easy time of things late on. I think dropping back to the 2 1/2 mile trip should be optimal and with a penultimate rating of 168 this horse certainly deserves some attention.
Race 5: Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
Race five sees us revert back to hurdles for a 3 mile handicap contest.
Race Analysis:
On paper this looks one of the most competitive races of the day and it’s proven a real conundrum going through the data with so many having a mixed record coming into this. The standout piece of form and race to follow will be the race that was ran at Haydock on the 23rd of November. That day, our current market leader ONE BIG BANG finished a gallant second behind a well-handicapped Irish horse. That race however also saw the reopposing CATCH HIM DERRY run no sort of race, and was ultimately pulled up. For those that watched that race, and I’ve gone back and watched is several times now, you’ll have seen just how much of a gruelling contest it turned into. Therefore in my opinion you have to question how much it will have taken out of those horses, especially the current market leader who looked absolutely legless at the finish.
Therefore I think it’s best to look elsewhere when assessing this race and I think there’s a couple of interesting contenders at the bottom of the weights. As we mentioned earlier, the all conquering Ollie Murphy team have sent out a huge amount of horses this winter period and have had an excellent period under the guidance of Champion Jockey elect, Sean Bowen. They combine here with an interesting horse called WHAT A JOHNNY and he looks the one to follow off a good mark of 119. This horse comes into the race having finished second, sixth and third on his last three appearances this season, most notably the last two coming during November. On his most recent run, he was stepped up to near 3 miles at Market Rasen, a move that makes sense given the horse’s pedigree. He finished that day recording a rating of 155 and also had to run the race without the declared tongue tie, which will now be reapplied. That could well make the difference and eek out a little bit more improvement, and with the forecast going of good to soft, I think it will suit the horse.
Race 6: Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race)
The penultimate contest is the Relkeel Hurdle, a 2 1/2 mile trip which features several that ran big races at the Cheltenham Festival last year.
Race Analysis:
A quick scan below at the ratings table will show that this race features a clear standout figure from a horse called SALVER for the Gary and Josh Moore team. This horse incidentally finished his season last year by finishing third in the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. That form has since been boosted with the winner Majborough now vying for favouritism for this year‘s Ankle. On seasonal reappearance SALVER was pitched into a deep handicap at Newbury in November and off a muddling pace was seen staying on very well to the line. What’s most interesting about that run is that he still earned a rating of 175, a clear standout in this field.
When you then go and look at the official ratings of these horses, a mark of 143 for SALVER does leave the horse with plenty to find especially when you compare him to LANGER DAN. The Harry Skelton ridden and Dan Skelton trained rogue has a current handicap mark of 160, but the issue with this horse is that he always seems to find his best form come the spring time. Therefore I would be amazed to see him at full throttle this time of year as they will always like to keep a little bit up their sleeve for the spring festivals. Therefore if you assume that he runs to 10-15lbs below that current mark, SLAVER doesn’t have a great deal to find and with natural improvement to come, this upwardly mobile hurdle can make a big impression in this Grade 2 contest.
Race 7: Raceridecheltenham Junior National Hunt Flat Race (Standard Open) (Listed Race) (GBB Race)
The final race of the day is the Junior National Hunt Flat Race, a Listed contest for those horses who have just turned four years of age.
Race Analysis:
Regular readers of EquiAnalytix’s blog will understand just how much we enjoy diving through the figures for a bumper and this race is no different. With so little form on offer it often pays to dive into our breeding figures to really understand those pedigrees that excel in these unique contests.
However before we get there, it is worth acknowledging that flat trainer Ralph Beckett does hold a very strong hand in this race with current favourite GNOMON. This horse made his debut in a bumper at Exeter at the end of October. He was ridden by Daryl Jacob that day and the horse was fairly keen, running just in behind the leaders. When asked the question, he ran very green but stayed on very strongly to win comfortably in the end, earning a big figure of 170.
I believe that can be taken literally and when you then dive into the breeding data and understand that this horse is by Time Test it really starts to cement a firm view that this horse will be very tough to beat. Time Test incidentally is one of those horses that we have flagged as a top sire to follow in the National Hunt game this season. Having not been given many opportunities with progeny on the flat, what’s been most interesting is to see that across the board his progeny have continued to run above average in the National Hunt game, even more so in bumpers where that flat speed can come to the fore. By that same logic is also worth considering the Anthony Honeyball trained WALKING IN THE WEST. This horse is by Walk In the Park, a top sire of the game whose figures are have consistently shown above-average progeny, especially in bumpers. However what makes this horse stand out on paper is because of the dam, a horse called Westerner Lady who was a Graded winner for Willie Mullins. She went on to reach a mark of 142 over jumps and is a former bumper winner herself. Therefore with this outstanding pedigree, and £80k purchase fee, this horse can make a big impression on debut.
Final Thoughts
What better way to begin 2025 than racing at Cheltenham. I hope that you’ve all found this blog insightful and gained some understanding of how our ratings can be used to better your analysis of racing! With so much data and many tips and tricks available on our Dashboard, why not head to our website to learn more or…