A big welcome to EquiAnalytix’s blog for the 2024 Cheltenham November, known as the Paddy Power! This stellar 3-day card features two top-class handicaps, the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday, and the Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday. These two races are supported by several competitive contests giving ample opportunity to get stuck into the form!
Friday’s racing proved eventful, with everyone still questioning how Tommie Beau was allowed to run out. But the star of the day was Potters Charm who well and truly popped the “Valgrand Bubble” with a dominating display. The way he galloped on up the Cheltenham hill is one of those images that will need remembering when we get to those all-important Festivals in the Spring.
EquiAnalytix subscribers were rewarded on the day with Hyland winning in the 3m novice chase, and in the process landing a nice 8.2/1 forecast with outsider Resplendent Grey. Jonbon was top-rated yet not exactly backable at odds of 1/3, but proved his class in what was a very assured jumping display.
With the curtain raiser behind us, we turn to Saturday’s card for an extra special race-by-race guide for EquiAnalytix subscribers!
Race 1: JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race)
We begin Saturday with the Triumph Hurdle trial, a 2m hurdle contest for the 3yos which can often give early clues for March..
Race Analysis:
On the latter point, I am not personally convinced this race is up to previous years’ standards. Whilst boasting a healthy field of 10, which in itself should be applauded given Friday’s racing, it’s not the strongest. The market seems to expect a case of deja vu as the James Owen trained, and Gredley Family owned EAST INDIA DOCK is your current favourite. Looking to emulate stablemate Burdett Road, who features later on in our blog, this horse made an impressive start to life over hurdles. Having formerly been rated as high as 90 on the flat, his engine is not in question. But it was his display of jumping at Wincanton last month that impressed me the most, and when calculating a rating of 132 for that effort, you are left feeling he is the horse they all have to beat.
But it’s a competitive race and a chance can be made for several. MY NOBLE LORD will prove popular for the Greenall & Guerriero combo, but the suspicion is that despite being a 3yo, this horse needs a fence and with several speedier “flat types”, he might just lack that tactical speed. Ireland is represented here by the unbeaten PRAIRIE ANGEL, but that horse will need to improve a lot to bridge the gap from his flat rating.
Instead it’s a good opportunity to scan the breeding data, where it leaves us looking at what I believe to be two of the most exciting sires in the National Hunt game right now, Golden Horn & Postponed. The former is the sire of EAST INDIA DOCK, and the latter is CONTINUANCE’S sire. They can’t be split on the breeding, but interestingly are miles apart in the betting, leaving the impression that CONTINUANCE has the pedigree to surprise a few at a nice price.
Race 2: Steel Plate & Sections Ltd Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase
An amateur jockeys’ handicap is up next over the 3m 1f trip, a race that will no doubt be a proper test, but is there a bias at play?
Race Analysis:
Our data suggests there is, and it could fall to THE NEWEST ONE to follow up the Twiston-Davies team. To help explain, I have included a table below that showcases the bias in this race. By analysing my entire dataset, and specially all 3m chases at Cheltenham on Good ground, there is a clear bias that emerges depending on the horse’s early position during the race. You can clearly see that for the 508 horses that have been “leading” early, 86 of them have won. But this is compared to the market only expecting 77 of them to win, therefore implying an actual vs expected figure of 1.36.. a 36% edge!
Now why does this matter? It matters because THE NEWEST ONE is likely to employ those positive forward tactics again under rider Toby McCain-Mitchell. He won’t be along on the pace, with others having led in previous races, but if he can get his own way, coupled with his LTO rating of 114, I think he will be very hard to peg back at a great each way price.
Race 3: Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Reg’ As The November) (GBB Race)
Race 3 is a really good-looking Grade 2 novices’ chase and with a field of 8, but is it that competitive?
Race Analysis:
In truth, the answer to that is no. The current market leader L’EAU DU SUD for team Skelton is going to prove very difficult to beat. He was by far the best of these over the smaller obstacles, and made a good start to life chasing at Stratford last time. A rating of 128 that day was good enough to win by 10 lengths, and he wasn’t overly asked for his effort on season reappearance. Whatever you decide in this race he looks an obvious saver-bet at EVS, with the hope of then playing that with a lively outsider or forecast.
And the horse the ratings suggest may fit that mould is BREIZH RIVER, the northern raider from Paul Robson’s stable. Ridden by Ryan Mania, this horse’s price looks overly pessimistic. 25/1 for a horse clearly on the up, who has proven to jump well under pressure, is unjustified. And a last time out rating of 171 for winning at Kelso makes him even more interesting. That was a handicap in which he won off a mark of 131, for which he was subsequently raised just 4lbs. That puts him in the mix compared to both LOOKAWAY and SAN SALVADOR and therefore might well outrun those lofty odds.
Race 4: Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
The feature race of this 3-day meeting is upon us, the 2024 Paddy Power Gold Cup, an ultra-competitive 2m 4f handicap chase where 15 go to post.
Race Analysis:
And I must begin by admitting that contrary to what you might have read, I do not think this is a great betting renewal. When it comes to analysing races, you can often find a winner by knowing how to steer clear of a race. This may be one of those that fits in that box as a mixture of seasonal reappearances, and the running of PROTEKTORAT makes the handicapping a nightmare.
GINNY’S DESTINY will be popular and I can see the case for the horse. He runs very well at Cheltenham, jumps incredibly well and takes advantage of a clear bias for prominent runners. The issue is that he was well beaten on reappearance last season, and with trainer Paul Nicholls being very clear that he is bringing his horses back in more gradually this season, the 3/1 here just doesn’t appeal.
But when you ignore that horse is becomes hard to make many cases, and instead I will just look at the blindingly obvious which is top-rated WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT. This horse has only had the two runs for the Christian Williams stable after leaving Nigel Twiston-Davies, and ran his best race for some time last month when chasing home a brave front-runner, earning a monster figure of 183. That is a career best for the horse and under normal circumstances would be a firm selection, but the snag here is the handicap. Because PROTEKTORAT runs, the horse is officially 10lbs out of the handicap which in simple terms means he runs off a mark of 141, rather than the 131 he’s actually rated. Now he remains of interest here purely on the figures which are weight adjusted, but is does temper enthusiasm in a baffling contest.
Race 5: From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
Race 5 we revert back to hurdles for a great-looking 3m handicap where a very healthy field of 12 will go to post.
Race Analysis:
This is a race that fascinates me from a data perspective, as there are two horses that I really cannot split.
The first is GOWEL ROAD for the Twiston-Davies team again. This horse from a ratings perspective is as solid as they come. It is very rare to see a horse with ratings of over 100 across the board, but no matter which way you skin it, this horse has achieved it. A gallant 2nd last time over course and distance was a great effort, going down to the Wallpark who in truth was a handicap blot. He was 4 1/2 lengths clear of the rest and deserves his rating of 161, and will be a tough nut to crack.
The horse who may do just that however is THANKSFORTHEHELP for David Pipe and owner JP McManus. The reason he interests me is that when you cross reference his best ratings, with his handicap mark and his pedigree, the stars look to be finally aligned for a big run. This horse made a mockery of a mark of 117 last year at Chepstow and could have won by half the track in the end. After that he was lightly campaigned off higher marks but on worse ground. Well Saturday he reverts back to Good ground, off a mark of 118, and being by Martaline, he has by far the best breeding of this field. He is bred to be far classier than this and I wonder with application of money and the right conditions, he could be laughing at the handicapper once again.
Race 6: Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle
Our penultimate contest sees us sticking with hurdles for this Class 3 handicap over the 2m 5f trip.
Race Analysis:
The beauty I think of the EquiAnalytix data is that it gives you the tools to analyse a race in around a million different ways. The way you may look at your racing, may be completely different to other readers, and I think this race is a prime example of that.
A quick glance at the table would suggest MAJOR FORTUNE is one of the strongest selections of the day. And you know what, he still might end up being that. But often when you look at the form ratings in isolation, you are making some very important assumptions that the race today is the right race for the horse. Well in my opinion, I am just not sure it is. I can even see him being a non-runner, although perhaps not as it will give the Noel Fehily Racing Syndicate a day out. Ratings of 159, 182 and 186 show you that this horse is on a steep upward curve. And a mark on Saturday of 127 mightn’t be beyond him. But he won’t be facing his usual heavy ground this time, in fact it will be the opposite. And that fact alone turns this form on it’s head and leads me down a very different path..
That path led me to HAMSIYANN. There are many in this game that truly excel in their race placement, and I firmly believe that trainer Tony Martin is one of the best. Fresh from being re-awarded a controversial Cesarewitch, today he unleashes HAMSIYANN on what I think is a very attractive mark. A simple glance at the table below doesn’t fill you with confidence, but subscribers using the Dashboard can click through onto the horse and see his last run was at Chester back in May, where he finished a fast-finishing 2nd behind Cesarewitch winner and stablemate, Alphonse Le Grande. That effort I encourage you to go back and watch, as it was eye-catching beyond belief how much trouble the horse found. He earned a big rating of 129 for that effort and gets to run today off a mark of only 111. His breeding is impeccable, being by Lope De Vega and out of a mare who reached a mark of 105 on the flat. Sometimes the form isn’t all that it seems, and I think this can be an example of that.
Race 7: Karndean Designflooring Mares’ Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race)
The final race on Saturday is the Mares’ Listed bumper… and for those new readers, we love a bumper!
Race Analysis:
EquiAnalytix’s ratings have proven time and time again that there is value to be had in a bumper, and we look to keep that strong track record going here for this field of 13. Many will flock to the Mullins trained Korinthia, who has looked good when winning at both Wexford and Limerick, but ratings of 57 and 15 leave huge question marks for a horse currently sat as the 7/4 favourite.
Instead we want to focus in the numbers, and that suggest JASMINE D’AIRY is set for a massive run. This mare started her life in Ireland with trainer Sam Curling, winning a Tipperary bumper by 6 lengths and earning a huge rating of 168. She was quickly picked up by the up-and-coming Harry Derham team, who will be desperate for some black type with her. What is most interesting is that not only does she boast the top rating of these mares, she’s actually the best bred for bumpers. Authorized is a sire that has continued to dominate the bumper space yet continues to be overlooked. An average rating of 77 for his progeny in these races is outstanding, and firms up my view about this mare. As a quick aside, and perhaps an important saver, if you like the chances of this mare, then you need to be interested in SIOG GEAL. The Fergal O’Brien trained mare actual beat JASMINE D’AIRY in a P2P back in February by an easy 4-lengths. Subsequently she was beaten on rules debut but I would expect a bigger performance today.. plus that would pay a very nice forecast!
Final Thoughts
A busy Saturday but it’s great to be back writing these blogs for you all. I continue to be blown away by the support I’ve received, especially since the iOS App launch and I cannot thank you all enough. Slowly but surely I intend to change the way we look at analysing a race, and I hope that these guides help in doing that!
As always if you have any questions, please use the WhatsApp link in the app, or email me at jake@equianalytix.com.