We are now officially half way through the Festival and so far we’ve been spoilt for top class performances. Yesterday put a spotlight on next year’s potential superstars and they did not disappoint! Ballyburn was a mightily impressive winner of the opener, and Fact To File looks to be a real Gold Cup contender for next season after toying with his rivals in the 3m novice chase. El Fabiolo had a mishap at the 3rd fence and was rightly pulled up by jockey Paul Townend – he appeared sound after the race so imagine will now look for revenge at Aintree. Blog readers were treated to a nice priced horse in Lucky Place who did just that in the Coral Cup, finding the “plot-job” Langer Dan too strong. It was then onto the Bumper and our breeding data just has such a tremendous strike rate in these races. It’s something we are very vocal about and look to expand upon this year. The breeding selection was Jasmin De Vaux and that horse duly obliged under Patrick Mullins, who very fittingly secured his father Willie Mullins his 100th Cheltenham Festival winner.. now that’s some accomplishment. With that, we move ahead onto day 3!
Race 1: Turners Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
We begin with the Turners Novice Chase which sees a very strong field of 11 head to post for a 2m 4f chase contest. It’s a race that EquiAnalytix have been talking about for some time, and there’s a very good reason for that below…
Race Analysis:
The simple reason is that a horse called Grey Dawning has been declared to run in it. This horse has been on our radar for some time purely from a ratings perspective, having followed up a 186 for finishing a close 2nd in a Cheltenham handicap with a monster rating of 242 at Warwick. That day he demolished a good looking field and despite a sketchy final jump, was not for catching. That incidentally is one of the highest ratings coming into this Festvial of all the contenders. Standing on the mound of these previous ratings, he is marked as one of the most exciting runners of the week.
At this stage it’s diffcult to look elsewhere, and even more difficult to know what to expect from current favourite Facile Vega. This horse was well beaten in last year’s Supreme and arrives here having made just an OK start to his chase career. More will definitely be needed here to land this prize.
Of the other runners, Ginny’s Destiny will prove popular and has been on the run up to Cheltenham. This horse has done nothing but improve and any other day his ratings would sit him at the very top of this field. The issue is that his standout rating of 184 for winning at this course on his penultimate start was achieved in receipt of 3lbs from Grey Dawning. Off level weights today it’s difficult to see him turning that around.
Race 2: Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
Race 2 is the Pertemps Handicap hurdle which has to be one of the biggest puzzles to solve of the entire year. This packed field is full of horses on the improve and many of which will have been primed just to peak right at this time.
Race Analysis:
The best place to begin is atop the data table with Springfield Bay. This is an interesting runner for the Jonjo O’Neill team who have by and large been very quiet this week thus far. This horse has been an improver this year having finisheed 1st, 4th and 2nd on his 3 runs, earning ratings of 70, 138 and 198. These are all showing subsequent improvement race-by-race and the 198 is a very high bar. He stuck to the task well last time out and at current odds looks a very interesting contender.
Whilst there are some notable ratings here on offer, many of them tie in with the selection Springfield Bay and several look to have different targets this season. With that the other horse that we feel has a very big chance is the Gordon Elliott trained Cleatus Poolaw. Ratings of 108 and 118 on his previous two runs are good, albeit not a standout, but it’s highly unexposed profile that demands attention. EquiAnalytix members can utilise the breeding dashboard which screens very well for this horse too. He’s young, unexposed and appears well handicapped which will be three things strongly in his favour today.
Race 3: Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy) (Grade 1)
The Ryanair is always a fantastic race and over the years has produced some equally brilliant winners. This year’s renewal looks very competitive and also features last year’s hero, Envoi Allen.. but can he do it again?
Race Analysis:
From a ratings perspective, we think Envoi Allen has a fantastic opportunity to win back to back renewals.. but we just suspect there’s something else in there that might stop him. The horse boasts ratings of 147 and 172 on his last two racecourse starts and that sets a firm standard.. the issue is that others look to have achieved more.
One of those horses is Banbridge who, like Grey Dawning, was a horse we had written down for weeks for the Festival. A huge rating of 221 for a last time out win at Kempton does set the standard and is very hard to ignore. The problem is that this horse is one of the most ground-dependent horses in training and that’s very much been vocalised by his team. Now the clue here will be if he runs or not. If he does line up today then I think he needs to be backed.. but it just wouldn’t be ideal given the predicted soft going.
And that then brings us to the top of the table and Protektorat. Representing yesterday’s winning combination of Dan and Harry Skelton, this horse has elected to drop back in trip rather than tackle another Gold Cup, and if you look at the data, that makes complete sense. The horse has performed to a very high level over this trip and evidently arrives here in top form given massive ratings of 212, 141 and 191 on his last 3 outings. Last time he ran well against Shishkin who we felt would’ve gone close in the Gold Cup tomorrow if he had ran, and that form looks strong enough to keep the Skelton winners train rolling forward!
Race 4: Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Today’s feature race is the Stayers Hurdle, a 3m contest for the UK and Ireland’s top stayers. Stamina and class will be needed in abundance and like all the graded contests thus far, it also looks like to be going to an Irish trained horse.
Race Analysis:
The question is which one? And the ratings look to have found the answer in Teahupoo. This Gordon Elliott trained gelding was 2nd in the contest last year having looked a touch unlucky, and this year from a ratings perspective appears to have improved again. He has had 5 runs so far this season, winning on 3 of those starts and recorded ratings of 143, 140, 190, 140 and 140. This is an ultra-consistent animal who warrants massive respect and really does deserve his Festival win.
The British will look towards both Crambo & Paisley Park to land the spoils and if either were to win, it would be a fantastic story. The former is the up-and-coming stayer from the Fergal O’Brien stable who still look for their first Festival winner. The latter would likely retire if he was to land anothe Stayer’s hurdle having won the contest in 2019. Both are top class horses but we just suspect lack that extra quality needed at this stage of their careers to land this.
For those seeking some extra value on course, we would look no further than last year’s winner. Sire Du Berlais. Similarly trained by Gordon Elliott, this horse’s record at the Festival is astounding, and having had his usual “prep” race in the Boyne hurdle last month, he will be spot on to retain his crown. We can’t believe how big his price is given he’s proven in this contest, and the ratings strongly support him.
Race 5: TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
The Plate is up next and again sees a very large field of handicap chasers go head to head. The thing with this year’s renewal is that it just doesn’t look that good.. and that’s clearly reflected in the ratings table which hardly appeal for many of the runners.
Race Analysis:
Given the soft ratings, the obvious place to start has to be Il Ridito, the Paul Nicholls trained 7yo. This horse has had a long season which would be an immediate worry, but has on the whole proven very consistent despite not landing that all elusive win. He has ran very well in competitive handicaps at Cheltenham this year, earning ratings of 216, 88 and 148 on his last 3 efforts. that obviously screens well in this field and therefore a chance is taken depsite the quiet stable form.
On the surface, it’s then hard to assess the others, but using our bespoke breeding data there does appear a nice standout at an attractive price, Saint Felicien. Again trained by Gordon Elliott and ridden by Jack Kennedy, this horse doesn’t have the ratings to his name, but has the pedigree to suggest a big improvement is coming. Life was made tough for this horse over fences as he was restrcited to hot begginers’ contests and therefore this will be his first handicap chase. Therefore a mark of 147 may really underestimate him and if Gordon and the team are already on the scoreboard, we expect this horse to be a lot shorter.
Race 6: Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
The pentultimate contest is the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, a Grade 2 event that has attracted this year a very exciting field of novices.
Race Analysis:
The most exciting of them all has to be Brighterdaysahead, again representing Gordon Elliott who on our ratings looks to potentially have a very good day ahead! This mare looks to defend her unbeaten record having recorded 5 wins from 5 career starts under rules, and the last time earned a massive rating of 153 when doing so. She’s been brought along with great patience and is obviously held in very high regard. With natural improvement as her breeding suggests, she should prove hard to beat.
Of the remainder, Jade De Grugy will prove popular as she left a very big impression when winning last time at Fairyhouse.. the issue is that she only earned a rating of 62 for that effort which she will really need to step up from. Dysart Enos was earmarked for this race a long time ago and has a very impressive resume thus far, the question is just whether she has the quality to match the others. In fact, we would prefer to take a chance on outsider Golden Ace to outrun her odds of 16/1. This mare has similarly won both hurdle starts and whilst finsihing 7l behind Dysart Enos in an Aintree bumper, she is much better bred for hurddling. Golden Horn progeny are really marking a mark in the National Hunt scene and it would therefore be no surprise to see her take a huge step forwards.
Race 7: Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase
The final race is the Kim Muir Challenge Cup which sees a big field of staying chasers ridden by Amateur Jockeys. This will be a gruelling test and stamina will therefore be needed in abundance.
Race Analysis:
The best place to start here is the Chris Gordon trained Annul Invictus. This horse was the hero at Doncaster when landing the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase, having made every yard of the running. For that effort he did also earn a very big rating of 165, and when taken with his 243 the time before puts this horse well in the mix despite odds of 33/1. Gina Andrews will no doubt ride this horse from the front and on a day where they switch to the new course, that could play right into her hands.
We do have a well backed favourite in the form of Inothewayurthinkin and in all honesty I cannot blame anyone for following him in. He’s largely unexposed and on his penultimate run earned a very big rating of 190. Last time out was far weaker at 51 and that’s what would put us off his very skinny price.
The same however cannot be said for Whacker Clan who we also think warrants huge respect. We selected the horse for blog readers earlier last year when landing a good handicap at the Cheltenham October meeting, before then being run in what looked a “prep race”. Much has been made this week about “schooling in public”, and you have to think that taking a 3m winning chaser, and dropping them back over 2m over hurdles 3 weeks before The Festival looks suspicious. So putting a line through that run we would expect a big performance here and the assistance of John Gleeson in saddle further supports that.
Final Thoughts
We would say so far so good this week thus far, with many of these races already showing the importance of both the ratings and breeding analysis. We wish you all a very lucky day 3 and look forward to coming back to you tomorrow for our Gold Cup Day thoughts!