As the Cheltenham Festival unfolds, join us for an in-depth analysis of Day 1, where we give you a flavour of the EquiAnalytix Ratings by offering insights and predictions to guide your festival experience. From the roar of the crowd to the thrill of the finish line, EquiAnalytix is here to enhance your understanding and appreciation of every moment.
Race 1: Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
The Cheltenham Festival gets underway with another thrilling renewal of the Supreme Novices Hurdle, a Grade 1 hurdle over the 2m trip. This year’s renewal has arguably been one of the most talked of races, ultimately coming down to where a certain Ballyburn will run. He has been declared for later in the week, but still leaves the masterful Willie Mullins with 6 of the intended 12 runners.
Race Analysis:
The resurgent Tullyhill was a horse very much forgotten this year, but bounced back onto the scene last month when storming away from his rivals at Punchestown, and immediately moving into favourite for this race. The issue we have is the rating he posted, of only 109. Optically he was very impressive but the figures just don’t give the same enthusiasm and we therefore would be inclined to look elsewhere.
Slade Steel has a very solid profile, recording ratings of 133, 108 and 121 on his last 3 racecourse visits and is bound to be there at the finish. The each way value in his price has very much been eaten away in recent days leaving him a little skinny at this point.
Firefox is another interesting contender having been put well in his place when upped to 2m 4f last time, having beaten Ballyburn on his penultimate run. That form reads very well but again the figures just don’t set the world alight.
This leaves us with the head of the Dashboard, Mystical Power, the son of the mighty Annie Power. This gelding looks to have bundles of potential, still looking incredibly raw on his last run where he showed an electric turn of foot. The more impressive fact with this horse is that the race was run at a very slow pace, but he quickened to such a level that he still earned a top rating of 152 for that victory. This followed a penultimate rating of 162, boasting figures that so many previous Supreme winners have achieved. He’s an exciting horse with some equally exciting figures behind him and is taken to get EquiAnalytix off to a flyer.
For those seeking more value, Tellherthename stands out as an intriguing outsider. With ratings of 151 and 148 for two impressive showings either side of disappointing at Aintree, this horse presents a strong case for an each-way bet at odds of 25/1. A chance can also be made for an outsider from the Willie Mullins team, Mistergif. This horse has only run the once but won very easily, and from our breeding data is in fact the best bred in this field!
Race 2: My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
From one fast-paced 2m event to another as up next is the Arkle. This year’s renewal looks on paper to be missing that usual “star quality”, with antepost favourite Marine Nationale missing out due to injury. This leaves a very open field of 10 where a case can be made for pretty much any of them!
Race Analysis:
The current market leader, and incidentally the horse who had headed the antepost market for the Turners’ for some time, is Gaelic Warrior. This Willie Mullins trained 6yo had looked to have the world at his feet over fences, having progressed through the ranks and landed a valuable prize at Limerick on his penultimate start over Christmas. He incidentally earned a monster rating of 209 for winning that race and very much put him as a firm favourite from the ratings for this year’s Festival. The issue is that next time out at the Dublin Festival he ran no sort of race, eventually unseating when being left behind by Fact To File. Now, whilst many will draw a line through that run, right now he appears as just far too short and whilst the Gaelic Warrior who won at Limerick may well turn up, there’s little value left in his price.
With that in mind we should look elsewhere, and the other Mullins trained duo of Il Etait Temps & Hunters Yarn will both prove popular on the day, but from a ratings perspective they just look to lack that edge in a race like this.
To be honest the same can be said for much of this field and therefore we stick with the figures and pick out a couple of lively outsiders. The first is Matata for the Twiston-Davies team. This son of Vadamos has been an exciting novice chaser this season so far, and has quickly progressed through the ranks. He looked a touch unlucky back here on New Year’s Day when making a mistake at the last when in front, and again looked a touch frustrating when rallying too late at Lingfield. Incidentally, that race was won by another that needs a close eye, JPR One. The ratings suggest that’s a strong piece of form, with both horses earning ratings of 181 and 183 respectively. These are indeed a standout and with conditions to suit, can outrun very big odds.
Race 3: Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Up next we have the Ultima Handicap, which under today’s conditions will be a gruelling test of stamina over the extended 3m trip in very soft ground. A race which produced last year’s Grand National winner, and this year’s renewal looks just as interesting on paper.
Race Analysis:
Of course the best place to start is this race’s “talking horse” and current market favourite, Meetingofthewaters. Punters can be forgiven for flocking towards this horse, given his progressive profile, trained by the master Willie Mullins and recently purchased by JP McManus. Those three combined very much puts him in the “could be anything” bucket and with many getting carried away talking this horse up as Gold Cup horse, his price has collapsed into the current 5/1 market leader. Putting a line through his unfortunate unseating last time out, this horse had shown progressive improvements in his ratings, culminating in a penultimate effort of 121. That rating alone puts him firmly in the mix and whilst others have achieved higher, his odds look to be on the drift and he will quickly become an each way bet to nothing.
Higher up the ratings table a mention must be made for Eldorado Allen. This horse certainly isn’t getting any younger at the ripe old age of 10, but is a class act in this field and depsite a burden of 12st to carry, gets the assistance of top 5lb claimer Freddie Gingell. He has proven ultra consistent this season, having finished a very strong 4th in a top handicap at Newbury, following a gallant 3rd at Ascot. His recent outing over hurdles at Plumpton looked to be a sighter for this race and even then he earned a monster rating of 214. His figures are solid and off a mark 8lbs lower than last season when finishing 7th in this race, he can finish in the frame at a big price.
A mention must also be made for the Kim Bailey trained duo, Trelawne & Chianti Classico. This masterful trainer produces these hardy staying chasers time and time again, and both of his representatives look to have very good chances. Peference would be with the latter who boasts a gallant rating of 157 for finishing 2nd at Kempton last time under not ideal conditions. This race will be run to suit and we would not be surprised to see him go very close here.
Ultimately this is a very open race and with plenty of extra places available a chance can really be taken on several of these.
Race 4: Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)
This year’s Champion Hurdle has the obvious disappointment of missing superstar Constitution Hill who would have very likely been a good winner of this on our figures. With his absence, he’s left it up to last year’s second, State Man, to take on what does appear a well below average field.
Race Analysis:
The above mentioned State Man looks rock solid for this race, but unfortunately his price fully reflects that. His ratings are very impressive, having recorded 145, 170 and 131 on his last 3 racecourse visits, the most recent of which when landing the Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival. He’s a very good horse in his own right and it would be a major surprise to not see him land this.
However, we also have to mention the chances of the Nicky Henderson trained, Iberico Lord. Now there are clear question marks against the stable form right now, with only 38% of recent runners running to form, and the average EquiAnalytix rating of those runners being a mesely 48. So that’s a major worry, but, this horse could change all of that. The horse was last seen winning the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last month, sprinting clear in the final stages in very impressive fashion. Why we take note of that is that he earned a very high rating of 234 for that effort, one of the highest ratings of any horse coming into this year’s Festival. Now he mightn’t have the class of State Man, but this horse is on the rapid improve, will love the ground conditions today and with the 3rd from the Betfair landing a big pot on Saturday, the form looks spot on.
Race 5: Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Grade 1)
The Mares’ Hurdle has a similar feel to the Champion Hurdle this year, being that it looks to revolve around a short-priced Willie Mullins horse, Lossiemouth. This horse will be many people’s idea of their “Banker of the Festival”. Her form is rock solid, she was impressive on the eye last time, but is this the right race for her?
Race Analysis:
The reason we make that final remark is simply because we think this mare has bundles of speed. Her last race was here at Cheltenham on Trial’s Day and she sprinted up the hill away from a good field in a race that was ultimately run at a pedestrian pace. That injection of speed could well aid her again today if they go slow, but our data suggests there is plenty of pace in this race, and given the conditions it’s going to require more stamina than speed. She may well just be leagues above this field, but at the price you’d be forgiven for looking elsewhere.
With that, studying the data brings a few horses into the mix. Tellmesomethinggirl looks to have a chance with a last time out rating of 143 earned in a Grade 3 at Naas, and similar can be said for Henry De Bromhead’s other runner Hispanic Moon who posted an idential racing when landing a decent pot at Punchestown. Both very good mares at each way prices but lacking that extra edge we think would be required for this race.
The final one to note and the horse that looks the most likely opposition to Lossiemouth is Ashroe Diamond. This mare has has an exexmplory record, having won 6 races from her 11 career starts, and most recently landed a very good renewal of the Yorkshire Mares’ Hurdle at Doncaster, in the process earning herself a very high rating of 144. That form looks rock solid and at the prices can be played each way, or even without the favourite for those looking to oppose Lossimouth.
Race 6: Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Fred Winter) (Premier Handicap)
Race 6 brings us our 2nd handicap of the day, The Boodles. This is always an incredibly tough race to assess, with so many unexposed novice hurdlers to filter through, many of which will have been “lined up” for a race like this. Races like this are where the ratings are key to be able to filter out those without chances, leaving then a handful to dive deeper into. Here are few insights we’ve gathered from the figures..
Race Analysis:
Heading the market for this race are 3 horses who also proved very popular in the antepost market; Milan Tino, Lark In The Mornin & Batman Girac. All here represented by big stables, these 3 horses are all supposedly well-ahead of their respective handicap marks. And it’s not really hard to understand why, with Milan Tino chasing home Sir Gino last time out, Lark chasing home the well-regarded Highwind & Batman chasing home Kala Conti at Leopardstown. All rock solid form but you’d be pressed to say any of the 3 looked impressive in those resepctive defeats, and frankly the ratings don’t support the market value right now.
Instead, the ratings have identified two possible alternatives, the first being the Paul Nicholls trained Liari. This horse arrives at the Festival off the back of 3 impressive wins at Wincanton, Aintree and most recently Musselburgh. These wins have looked good on the eye, and the most recent victory earned an impressive rating of 141. That’s a high standard for a young horse and he rightly carries top weight for this handicap. The ground won’t be an issue and this son of Cracksman looks to have a very solid chance today.
The second to note is also a son of Cracksman, this time trained by Gordon Elliott – Ndaawi. This lightly raced gelding has improved on each run and it’s his final outing when winning commandingly at Naas that grabs the attention, earning a rating of 113. It’s a lesser effort than Liari but this horse got to a mark of 96 on the flat and we feel therefore can improve on his mark of 134 over hurdles. He is bred to handle today’s conditions and can run a big race for the Elliott team.
Race 7: Maureen Mullins National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Day 1 closes with a gruelling 3m 6f event for novice chases, where stamina is going to be needed in abundance to get home in this race. A small field this year but not lacking in depth.. here are our thoughts for an intriguing closing race.
Race Analysis:
The first two to focus in on here are Corbetts Cross representing Emmet Mullins, and Embassy Gardens representing Willie Mullins. Both of these horses have flip-flopped at the top of the market on the run up to this race, and it’s not difficult to see why. Embassy Gardens hasn’t put a foot wrong on his two chase starts, earning very good ratings of 121 and 125 for winning both. Corbetts Cross mightn’t have the ratings to support his case, but he’s a class act and was a far better hurdler than all of these today, rising to a mark of 148. Both look to have the right profile to win a race of this nature but there are questions marks over both with Embassy often being a very keen traveller, and Corbetts Cross running up a sequence of non-completions.
Instead, the ratings suggest the Salvador Ziggy is being wrongly ignored here at 6/1 and is worth a second look. Barring a LTO 7th where he ran no sort of race in a hurdle event in the USA over an inadequate trip, this horse’s form is rock solid. Ratings of 135, 150 and 126 reflect that, and this will be his 5th career chase start which gives him an edge experience-wise. He is officially higher rated than the top two in the market and with the EquiAnalytix ratings in his favour, we would expect him to go very close here under top rider Rob James.
For those again looking for even more value, take a look at the Ben Pauling trained Henry’s Friend. This horse won a very stamina-testing race at Ascot last time, showing he has the required reserves for this step up in trip, but also earned a rating of 133 which would put him right in the mix for a stable that arrives here in the best form.
Final Thoughts
A really exciting opening day to what is the greatest show on Earth. We hope you have all enjoyed the insights from the EquiAnalytix data, and would encourage all of you to reach out if you have any questions or thoughts. We are always looking at ways to improve our service so please contact us if you have any suggestions.