The final day of the Cheltenham Festival is now upon and that means one thing, the Gold Cup. To quickly reflect, it has been a fantastic week thus far and the data has really showcased exactly what we are trying to do here at EquiAnalytix. Especially yesterday where we identified 4 very good winners on the day. It’s been fantastic to share these insights with so many of you this week and we hope that it encourages you to have the EquiAnalytix data by your side going forwards.
Race 1: JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1)
First up is the Triumph Hurdle and is another race that has been decimated by non-runners. First we had a short priced favourite in the form of Corbett’s Cross, and then it was Sir Gino, and now neither of which are running. It’s left a very open renewal with plenty of value to be had.
Race Analysis:
The best place to start are the Willie Mullins pair, market favourite Majborough & his stablemate Storm Heart. Both of these horses have very big reputations, with the latter formerly been well fancied for this race. Both race against one another at the Dublin Racing Festival and finished 3rd and 2nd repspectively so it’s obviously the piece of form the market has latched onto. The we shy away is that this is a very unique race built for speedier types and these two look like scopey progressive horses. Couple with their ratings being pretty below average, it doesn’t inspire confidence with their short prices.
Instead, we prefer the chances of Joseph O’Brien’s Nurburgring, a very speedy sony of Zoffany. This horse is flat bred as you’d expect given connections, and was once rated 96 on the flat operating over middle distances. Since hurdling, he’s taken another step forward and landed a good pot at Fairyhouse on his penultimate start, earning a very solid rating of 121 for doing so. That followed a huge rating of 176 which really does stand out in this company. Next time out at Leopardstown over Christmas he clocked a poor rating of 72 for finishing 3rd in a hot race, but the problem that day was that there was just no pace, something we find highly unlikely to occur again today. This horse has very good form in the book and is the right type for this race, we expect him to go very well.
A final mention must be given for the mare, Fratas who is a fascinating outsider here. She’s a similar flat bred horse, having risen to a mark of 88 and was last seen on the level competing in a Listed race. She has had just the one hurdle start and won that convincingly back in November, and in the process clocked a very big rating of 140. She’s had near 6 months off the track since, and is a 50/1 outsider but for me she ranks as a mare that could be absolutely anything and in receipt of 6lbs from her male opposition, we think she can suprise a few here.
Race 2: BetMGM County Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
Race 2 is the County Hurdle a Grade 3 handicap where a field of 22 go to post. This year’s renewal looks very deep with the shortest priced horse at only 4/1… but he does look quite special.
Race Analysis:
The horse in question is L’Eau Du Sud, trained yet again by the hero of yesterday, Dan Skelton. This horse was last seen finishing 2nd in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, and is a piece of form we’ve spoken highly of this week. The winner that day was Iberico Lord who we thought would run well in Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle but seemingly ran no race. That can be excused given the stable form and when you consider the 3rd in the Betfair went on to win last weekend, it’s still rock solid. And therefore the rating achieved of 219 can and should be taken literally. These deep conditions should be of no concern and the stable form is another big positive here.
It’s a hugely competitive race and of course a case can be made for many, including King Of Kingsfield, Afadil & the Sheena West trained Mr Freedom. We have identified the latter here as a very intriguing outsider and is a horse I know ever so well. This time last year, we were left licking our wounds after this horse took a nasty bump at the top of the hill in the Boodles, leaving his saddle to slip and meaning he could only muster 5th at huge odds of 40/1. That day he evidently showed his liking for the course and his last time out win at Plumpton really impressed me, even more so when I saw the rating of 191. He’s a fascinating contender, but as is Petit Tonnerre who strikingly sits atop the ratings table here with a 225 last time out. The horse is reverting back to hurdles today with a visor added and we know will handle conditions. Odds of 25/1 can still be had for this horse and that really perks my interest for a couple of lively outsiders.
Race 3: Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
The Albert Bartlett is always a gruelling test of stamina and given the downpour we’ve had overnight, this one is going to be especially so. That can often mean a few lively outsiders hit the frame but this year more than ever there looks some very interestingly bred horses lining up.
Race Analysis:
Looking at the breeding data below which has been such an aid this week at Cheltenham, all routes lead to Readin Tommy Wrong. This horse looks to protect his unbeaten record under rules having won 2 bumpers and 2 hurdles. Looking at those 4 races, he’s achieved ratings of 120, 184, 72 & 112. These are all solid enough ratings and when you then consider he’s bred for 3m, it’s even more impressive to have seen this horse winning convincingly over shorter. He’s a horse bred for today’s unique conditions and will take all the beating.
Given the data has showcased some really big figures here, it’s also worth considering the chances of another outsider Spread Boss Ted. Now he may appear on paper to be the Mullins 5th string, but there’s a feeling the market has this one wrong. In previous years this race has popped up some big prices and this horse has a very similar profile to previous victors. His latest outing in January was the key piece of form here. Held up on heavy ground, he made eyecatching headway admittedly against a modest field, but really kicked away late on and gave the impression he might be able to be smuggled into a race such as this. A rating of 186 for that supports that thesis and a chance is taken for some extra value.
Race 4: Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)
And with that, we now have the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the most coveted prize in National Hunt racing. A field of 11 of the top staying chasers of our generation will go to post to battle it out… but the feeling here is that the race has a clear standout superstar.
Race Analysis:
And that superstar is of course Galopin Des Champs. Last year’s hero looks to make it two from two in this race and in all honesty there isn’t much in his way this time. We can analyse his ratings of 148, 136 and 145 on his last 3 runs but it doesn’t tell the entire story. This horse is supremely bred by Timos out of a Marchand De Sable mare, and with that breeding and his historic performances suggesting today’s dire conditions will actually improve his chances. He is a joy to watch jump a fence and for racing purists we really do hope he can go onto to land this in some style.
Of the rest, we do also think that Gentlemansgame will massively outrun his odds of 20/1 for Mouse Morris, having been given a break since his Wetherby win last year. He will appreciate conditions, but the same can also be said for both Corach Rambler, and The Real Whacker. For regular readers this horse will come as little surprise to be featured in our blog, given after last year’s heroics we were eager to back him for this Gold Cup. Things haven’t gone to plan this season but what he has done is gradually improve with each run. The new course at Cheltenham we think will aid his jumping and his rating of 137 from the Cotswold Chase run suggest this horse will be staying on late at a big price. He mightn’t just have the class to win, but we won’t be underestimating The Whacker.
Race 5: St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase
After the usual euphoria of the Gold Cup, we can often be forgiven for missing the appeal of the Foxhunters, which in truth as produced some of the most thrilling finishes in recent years. The difference this year is we think there is a very serious horse running in there.
Race Analysis:
That horse is Its On The Line, who represents the powerful the JP McManus operation having been bought specifically for this race in recent weeks. The Emmet Mullins trained 7yo has all the right credentials for this race as he does have stamina in abundance. That showed last time out when narrowly fending off Billaway in the closing stages, earning a very impressive rating of 179. Jockey Derek O’Connor is riding out of his skin this week and will be seen travelling well atop the Prestbury mound, and we think he will take some stopping up the Cheltenham hill.
Of the remainder, we would expect another bold showing from Ferns Lock, as well as last year’s winner, Premier Magic. Both having done nothing wrong this season but just don’t look to have the class of the current market leader. The one other horse to note would be Sine Nomine which is the breeding selection in the race. He rates as a very attractive each way selection at sensible odds, and looks well bred for this game.
Race 6: Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase
In my view the Mares Chase is a brilliant addition to the Cheltenham Festival and gives these talented mares an opportunity to go head-to-head on the big stage.
Race Analysis:
This year’s renewal looks an absolute cracker and punters have flocked to the Willie Mullins trained Dinoblue. This does make sense given this horse has been contesting Grade 1 chases this year, winning one on her penultimate start at Leopardstown. That day she was clear of Gentleman De Mee who ran a cracker on Wednesday in the Champion Chase. Therefore really shes’s a proper Grade 1, 2m chaser running in a Grade 2 against her own sex. She’s short, and she is the most likely winner but from both a ratings and breeding perspective, we just can’t warm to her the same way the market has. The value has gone and instead we fee it best to look elsewhere.
We therefore think that stablemate Allegorie De Vassy might be able to cause the upset here. Ridden by Paul Townend again, this mare was a close 2nd in this race last year just being outbattled up the hill. However we believe she’s improved this season. On the run up to last year’s 2nd, she had achieved ratings of 104, 113 and 127, rising to handicap mark of 151. However this year, she arrives off the back of ratings of 210, 122 & 210, and officially a 4lb higher mark of 155. Now according to the BHA that’s 5lbs behind the market leader, but breeding data suggests this big scopey mare can improve again, espeically for these ground conditions.
Race 7: Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle
And as we head into Race 7, that brings a close to what been a truly fantastic Cheltenham Festival. Before we do review, we must look to finish the week on a high.. so let’s get analysing one final time.
Race Analysis:
This race is often one where it pays to look at recent form as well ensuring that the horses in question are still unexposed or at the very least well ahead of their respective marks. The horse we are immediately drawn to is very fitting given the week that stable has had. That horse is No Ordinary Joe. Trained by Nickey Henderson who for such unfortunate reasons has been the talk of the Festival this week, he looks to get that all elusive winner in the final contest. For me this is very simple, if he turns up, he needs to be backed, and if he’s another that is deemed “below par”, he will be declared a non-runner. The reason we are interested so much in this horse is his last time out rating of 181 for finishing 3rd at Kempton. Most would leave it at that and that would suffice, however if you actually go back and watch that race, in my opinion it’s as close to “public schooling” you will find. There was very little effort to put the horse into the race and whilst the front two were allowed to stretch on, Joe made steady headway into 3rd. It’s protected his mark and brings him here only 1lb higher than last year. Aidan Kelly takes the ride and if running, we expect a good run at good odds.
Ultimately many of these have a chance and we would be wrong to not follow the breeding data one final time to look at an alternative angle here. Quai De Bourbon is the current market leader and does also head our breeding ratings for his unexposed sire, Ivanhowe. This sire has produced just two National Hunt horses which obviously skews the data somewhat but this horse looks impressive. Ratings of 145 and 105 for two starts for Willie sets a good standard here and he will go well.
Final Thoughts
And that brings the Greatest Show on Earth to a close, and I just wanted to take this opportunity thank you all personally for your support over the week. It’s been a tremendous week and we’ve loved meeting so many of you on course, and providing some key insights to find those all-elusive Festvial winners. I believe the data has really showcased what we are trying to build here at EquiAnalytix, and I hope you’ve seen the importance of having the data by your side.