The Cheltenham Festival got underway in big fashion yesterday as we were treated on course to some serious performances. Team Mullins as expected had a very fruitful opening day, with both short-priced fancies State Man & Lossiemouth winning with ease. Mystical Power looked all over the winner in the opening Supreme but Rachel Blackmore had more up her sleeve on Slade Steel and was an impressive victor. Chianti Classico got EquiAnalytix off to a good start as he jumped incredibly well and was not for stopping up the hill, with the well-touted Meetingofthewaters back in 3rd. However the most impressive performance came in the last as Corbett’s Cross showed that he was a cut above these, winning in the end by as far as he liked. From a ratings perspective it was a mixed opening day with a few winners and large each way returns. With that, we move onto tomorrow which is set to be a real test given the now tacky ground.
Race 1: Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Day 2 begins with The Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle which with yesterday’s Supreme, has been talked about now for months. The reason being is that it features the hugely exciting Ballyburn.. but what do the ratings think?
Race Analysis:
The answer is that we expect a very big winning performance from Ballyburn. His profile, his stable form and his last time out rating of 155 for routing the field at the Dublin Racing Festival all make this horse the one to beat, despite his very skinny odds.
Looking away from the favourite is difficult, and if it wasn’t for the poor form of the Henderson, we would be looking strongly at Jingko Blue to go close here. However, yesterday only painted a worse picture of Nicky’s rumoured stable issues with Jereko bombing out in the Supreme, and Iberico Lord running no race in the Champion Hurdle. Luccia did however run very well to a point in the Champion Hurdle, but again didn’t exactly finish her race. It’s a very difficult one as there are horses from the yard we do fancy later today… but the warning signs are there.
Race 2: Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
The Brown Advisory is always a fantastic race at the Festival and one we look forward to. The opportunity to see the next generation of staying chases puts this race high up our list, and this year’s renewal looks to contain a potentially special horse.
Race Analysis:
The horse in question is of course Fact To File, again trained by the masterful Willie Mullins team. This horse has had a more unusual campaign as it was only 12 months ago today that he was seen finishing 2nd in the Champion Bumper. He is built and bred every bit like a chaser and so in hindsight I guess it wasn’t a surprise to see this horse go straight over fences. That lack of jumping experience would normally raise a question but this horse looks to have real quality. Last time out he put yesterday’s Arkle winner to the sword and came out easily on top, earning a massive rating of 166 in the process. That alone marks him as the one to beat here and whilst a short price, we would be surprised if he wasn’t to collect.
Stay Away Fay will prove popular with many, and for good reason as he steps back into novice company after a really promising effort in the Cotswold Chase. That day he was just a touch outclassed but stock on well up the hill teeing him up for this race. The problem is that we just suspect he may end up having to play second fiddle.
For those looking for a bit of value in the race, we think American Mike is currently very overpriced. Ratings of 150, 141 and 123 on his last 3 racecourse visits places this horse high on the list, showing a very progressive profile.
Race 3: Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
The Coral Cup is next, a deviously tough handicap hurdle where so many are simply hidden and lined up for a big run.
Race Analysis:
Now where to start.. the dilemma from the ratings here is that purely on the EquiAnalytix performance ratings, your eyes are drawn to the Henderson pair of Doddiethegreat & Lucky Place. The latter is a real firm favourite of ours having ran ever so close at the track last time out in a good quality novice hurdle. Both boast some serious ratings, with Doddie’s 200 for a LTO 4th in the Newbury hurdle being the best in the field. Again, the issue here really comes down to trainer form and now with Nicky Henderson’s 1 month avg rating operating at such a low level at 45.. it’s hard to be ultra positive. The ratings however suggest these two need to be taken seriously and both are very good each way prices.
As for the others, the major talking horse is Sa Majeste and we think the horse has a massive chance. He is very lightly raced and whilst on the ratings doesn’t set the world alight, he is very well bred and the trainer form statistics couldn’t be any better. The horse beat former Grand National winner Noble Yeats last time out and was subsequently wrapped up to protect his handicap mark. They evidently think they have him spot on and I would expect him to be bang there come the finish.
A final note for the even bigger talking horse, Langer Dan. He’s been the talk of social media has we’ve watched his handicap mark come down this to 141, incidentally the exact same mark when landing this last year. He is impossible to assess here and only Dan and Harry will know what they have, but plenty have been lined up for this so they will need to have plenty up their sleeves.
Race 4: Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)
The Champion Chase is the feature on Day 2 and yes, it again revolves around a Willie Mullins superstar, this time El Fabiolo.
Race Analysis:
This is on paper a very good Champion Chase with the aforementioned El Fabiolo taking on both Jonbon and Edwardstone. Whilst each have their merits and boast some solid ratings, we would be very surprised to not see another Mullins winner. The current short-priced favourite boasts ratings of 151, 158 and 213 for his last 3 runs and that’s well beyond most of these. Right now he’s the most exciting two mile chaser in the UK & Ireland and can be crowned the top this afternoon. He can be known to make a mistake but that can be said for many of these, and with the conditions likely to suit, there’s not many negatives here.
Race 5: Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Given we’ve not lost the the Cross Country due to the weather, next up is an electric handicap chase over 2m, the Grand Annual. This is always a fascinating race and this year’s renewal looks a cracker!
Race Analysis:
Heading our data is the Sophie Leech trained Madara who has proven a revelation this season. This horse landed a valuable handicap at Cheltenham at the December meeting, before then travelling to Leopardstown to land a similar handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival. He is now 10lbs higher than for the first win but this horse is rapidly on the improve and ratings of 137 and 167 for those victories support that. He’s a class act who handles this track and at 6/1 looks a good bet.
Value in this field appears to be lurking everywhere and chances can be made for Solness and last year’s winner Maskada. But it’s the Dan Skelton trained Calico that interest us most given his figures. This horse has been ultra consistent this season, not finishing outisde the top 4 and his ratings are exexmplory. A rating of 152 when finishing 2nd at Doncaster last time really sets a good standard and he’s currently a massive price. He should handle these conditions and would expect a decent shwoing.
Race 6: Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1)
We end day 2 with the Champion Bumper, a brilliant race that again gives insights into the next generation of superstars. This year’s renewal has been a little spoilt by non-runners, but there is still a very strong field to go through.
Race Analysis:
At EquiAnalytix, you will have heard us bang on about our breeding data, and it’s races such as this that bring that to the fore. We have found that time and time again, our Sire breeding is a brilliant indicator for these bumpers. In the table below, the Type column indicates the average sire performance in this type of race, i.e bumpers. So with that, it becomes very interesting that heading that table is current market favourite Jasmin De Vaux. This horse has only run the once, but was very impressive indeed, earning a debut rating of 125 for that effort. When looking closer at this pedigree, his sire, Tirwanako, boasts an average rating of 74 in bumpers and importantly 71 on softer ground. That will all play in his favour today and with that, he’s a great price.
Looking further down the list, it’s hard not to be drawn towards the Skelton trained Royal Infantry and he appears a great each way selection at a monster price. This horse has improved rapidly having had two starts, and most recently won well at Newbury in a Listed event earning a massive rating of 184.
Others to note would be the Nicholls trained duo of Farland & Quebecois, with the latter more likely bred for chasing.
Final Thoughts
A mixed day given the disappointment of losing the Cross Country, but a cracker nonetheless. The ratings were mixed yesterday, so we look to take a big step forward here today. Good luck to everyone.