Hello everyone and welcome back to the EquiAnalytix Blog for Day 2 of the 2025 Grand National Festival! An eventful Day 1 where we were reminded that it’s Willie Mullins’ world, and we are very lucky to be living in it!
Reflecting on Day 1:
I say that as the masterful trainer cleaned up the first 4 Grade 1s of the afternoon, winning with two of the selections from the data, Murcia & Lossiemouth. The former was mightily impressive, and one of the most eye-catching winners of the day when you consider how keen she was early doors.
But it was a case of deja vu for Constitution Hill supporters as he took off far too early again in the home straight leaving Nico no chance. He’s going to be a very difficult horse to place going forwards given as we warned, he has completely lost respect for his hurdles when asked to really extend. It was therefore left for Lossiemouth to pick up the pieces, and perhaps an unpopular opinion, I still think she would have won if CH stayed on all fours!
A cracking opening day and of course great to follow on from such a successful Cheltenham Festival! Day 2 brings us much deeper, competitive racing, and therefore let’s dive into the figures!
Race 1: Huyton Asphalt Franny Blennerhassett Memorial Mildmay Novices Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
We begin the afternoon with the Mildmay Novices Chase, a Grade 1 contest over the extended 3m trip. This renewal has a slightly softer feel to it compared to recent years, but there is a horse running I have been looking forward to seeing for a while now…
Race Analysis:
That horse is HANDSTANDS for the Ben Pauling team. This horse was last seen narrowly beating Jango Baie at Sandown back in February, showing real determination to get his head back in front up the famous Sandown hill. Now of course, the 2nd horse that day didn’t frank that form at Aintree yesterday, but he did when winning the Arkle and so I think you can be confident that this form is solid. That form looks even more solid when you see that by winning, HANDSTANDS earned a standout figure of 204. That’s a huge number, especially for a novice chaser and I am confident stepping back up to 3m will eke out further improvement from this horse.
Of the opposition, “The Expensive Horse”, CALDWELL POTTER, silenced many doubters when landing the 2m 4f handicap chase at Cheltenham, jumping beautifully from the front and really putting his opposition to the sword. The problem I have is that his figures just don’t match up to this Grade 1 company, and that run style over this extended 3m trip against proven stayers is a very tough ask. DANCING CITY proved disappointing at the Festival when well beaten, and QUAI DE BOURBON will need to improve his jumping to compete here.
Race 2: William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
Race 2 is a really competitive handicap hurdle over the 2m 4f trip and you’d forgiven for throwing several darts at this given the current market.
Race Analysis:
The early market at the time of writing is dangling KOPECK DE MEE back in front punters having been a miserable 20th of 24 when supposedly “the best handicapped horse in training” at the Festival. Now that’s not means to say this horse won’t win, as we’ve seen just how red hot the Willie Mullins stable is this week. But on all data in front of me, I cannot begin to back him at that sort of price and so he has to be taken on.
The question really is what with?! BE AWARE was sent off favourite for the Coral Cup but could only muster 8th, with IMPOSE TOI finishing 6 places higher in 2nd but has to contend with a 4lb rise. These are quality horses in a handicap and have their chances, but I want to focus in on a lively a outsider that I feel has a very interesting profile for this race.
That horse is LISTENTOYOURHEART, again for the Dan Skelton team. Dan will have been disappointed on Day 1, but this ultra-consistent mare can certainly make amends under young rider Harry Atkins. Of course you have to bear in mind brother Harry has chosen BE AWARE, but this mare doesn’t lack in quality and I suspect could be off a very attractive handicap mark. For races of this nature, you ideally want to see horse’s ratings improving, which hers clearly are, but also not being hit too hard in the handicap, which she has not been. She has kept very good company this season, running and winning a Listed mares hurdle at Newbury back in November, before running respectably in good races at Taunton and Kelso subsequently. Her last three ratings read 119, 141 and 166, clearly progressing, yet she’s been nudged down 1lb to a mark of 127 for handicaps. With Harry’s 7lb claim, she will carry a featherweight of 10st 3lbs and may just cause a bit of a turn up on the afternoon!
Race 3: TrustATrader Top Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
Next we have the Grade 1 Top Novices Hurdle race which looks to revolve around the 3rd horse from last month’s Supreme.
Race Analysis:
That horse is ROMEO COOLIO who quite frankly deserves to be favourite, has the highest TPR figure in the race and looks to be a fair bit better than his opposition. The issue is that that is all very much reflected in his skinny price, and only the Mullins factor and money for SALVATOR MUNDI has seen the favourite slightly drift to a more palatable price.
However, there is a horse running here that I can’t seem to get away from on the figures and just has to be given a second look during a season where we have seen so many of these short-prices go amiss. That horse is JET TO VEGAS for course specialist trainer Lucinda Russell. This horse has been a complete revelation this season, having broken his maiden in a moderate race at Ayr in January, before taking a massive step forward next time at Kelso. His ratings for his 5 career runs read; 6, 85, 128, 140 & 197. This is a horse that is improving at a rate of knots and despite him not having that appealing profile of being a proven Grade 1 animal here, his figures don’t lie and I would not be surprised to see him outrun huge odds.
Race 4: My Pension Expert Melling Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
Our 4th race on the day is the Melling Chase, a Grade 1 over 2m 4f which features one of the most popular horses in training, and for many the banker of the week, Jonbon… but what does the data suggest?!
Race Analysis:
Whether I am biased because we successfully opposed the horse in the Champion Chase or not, I think the market is far too skinny for JONBON. He is a fantastic horse, and on his day there are not many that can beat him… but saying that, EL FABIOLO has. This horse at one stage looked to have the world at his feet, but the wheels came off and this horse’s jumping has continued to let him down on the big stage. Almost falling at Cheltenham, was followed by a crashing fall at Leopardstown, and at that stage many will have rightly questioned whether enough was enough. But this is Willie Mullins, and therefore to see this horse bounce back to earn a rating of 255 in defeat at Navan is eye-catching to say the least. Many will of course see him being beaten but an inferior horse, but the figure suggests it was a good race, and I am willing to believe that this more intermediate 2m 4f trip on proper spring ground can allow this horse to jump in a far better rhythm. End of the day, it’s a case of which of these two jumps better, and I am happy to chance that we may get to see the return of the true EL FABIOLO.
Race 5: Randox Supporting Prostate Cancer UK Topham Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
The Topham Chase sees us return to the National fences once again for our final starter before the main course tomorrow. This will once again be a right cavalry charge and looks an incredibly open renewal.
Race Analysis:
The Mullins factor once again sees him top the market, this time at 9/1 with BLUE LORD. This horse has turned 10 this year, and whilst bot being the force he once was, still demands the upmost respect off a mark of 152 in this handicap. It will however require him to improve a great deal on what he’s shown, and his lacklustre ratings strongly suggest that. Connections also run JAMES DU BERLAIS who is a constant feature of these competitive contests, albeit often finding several too good on the day, with the same being said for horses such as EXCELLO, AMIRITE and GINNY’S DESTINY.
Therefore it’s left us looking further down the market than we’d anticipated as there are a couple of real standout figures to discuss here. The first is for last year’s Champion Chase 2nd, GENTLEMAN DE MEE. To think this horse would be running in a Topham after his form over the years is astounding, even more so off an official mark of 155. Having once been rated as high as 167, this course winner looks fascinating under top jockey Mark Walsh. He of course just hasn’t been the same horse this season but it’s his last time out run that demands respect here. It’s a form line we should be familiar with already, as his 227 was achieved when finishing 4 1/2 lengths behind El Fabiolo at Navan last month. Now if that horse was to frank that in Race 4, it would be a serious boost for this chances.
The second horse to note here is the top-rated SHANTREUSSE. This Henry De Bromhead trained 9yo has ran in this race before, having finished 7th last after making a terrible mistake. My slight concern is that connections have kept this horse on the softer going and therefore it may prove a little lively on the day, but this race is very unique and they don’t go flat out, so therefore with a last time out rating of 206, a chance has to be taken here.
Race 6: Oddschecker Sefton Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
The penultimate race on Day 2 is the Sefton Novices Hurdle, a Grade 1 contest over the extended 3m trip that is certain to stretch out many of these horses on the day.
Race Analysis:
A quick glance at the table will see it being topped by a very big outsider, who will come onto shortly, but closely followed by the mare FAMILIAR DREAMS. Having formerly been owned by Qatar Racing, this daughter of Postponed was once a strong fancy of mine for the Mares’ Novices at Cheltenham. However she was well beaten Maughreen at Punchestown in January and that really looked to put a dampener on her spring targets. Instead, she was sold internally within the yard and upped to 22.5 furlongs at Limerick during Festival week, where she posted one of her very best performances. She relished the step up in trip, jumped far better and extended away for a comfortable success. This saw her achieve a rating of 155, which follows figures of 189, 102, 141, 128 and 164. Evidently this a very classy mare that is improving her racing, and a look at the breeding data will show you that she is by far the best bred horse in this field and has an outstanding chance.
The lively outsider that I believe deserves a mention here is JULIUS DES PICTONS for the Jamie Snowden team. Now this horse of course doesn’t have the profile of market leaders CALIFET EN VOL, MISTER MEGGIT or even BATTLE BORN LAD, but he does have some superb form figures and has had the benefit of plenty of racecourse experience. His last 3 runs have yielded ratings of 113, 167 and 168, with the latter being a creditable 3rd behind two nice horses at Exeter in a Listed event. Now of course he will need to improve upon that, but this horse takes a remarkable step up in trip from 2m to 3m for this race, a move that clearly makes sense given his pedigree and run style. And regular readers will know I have very strong views of these 3m novice races that it just takes so much out of these animals that it might not be the classiest horse that come out on top…
Race 7: Hallgarten And Novum Wines Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys/Amateur Riders Race) (GBB Race)
We close Day 2 with yet another ultra competitive handicap, this time for Conditional and Amateur jockeys over the extended 2m trip.
Race Analysis:
And here the data looks willing to go out on its sword by having a very standout selection in the “Lucky Last”… and that horse is SHE’S A SAINT. This horse has a fascinating profile for team Skelton, having ran 8 times, recording two victories and finished 2nd on all 6 other runs. That’s a remarkable achievement, and what’s more, this mare posted a clear career best back in May at Cartmel when finishing 2nd. That day she earned a figure of 197 which in isolation is the clear standout in this field today. She was raised 2lbs for that effort, but the race itself has churned out winners since, and she looks to have been kept away by connections for a race such as this. She has a very lightly-raced profile, and remains one of the best bred in the field being by Saint Des Saints, out of a Danehill mare. If they’ve got her just right on the day, she could spark a huge surprise to close Day 2!
Final Thoughts
And with that we close Day 2 of the 2025 Grand National meeting, and I thoroughly hope you have enjoyed the read!
Day 1 brought us plenty of drama, but equally plenty to be proud of from a data perspective. As the algorithm continues to absorb more and more racing, the tweaks and refinements are clear to see and I hope that can continue to provide you all with solid insights this week!
Don’t forget, you can access this data each day, for every horse all via our easy-to-use Dashboard!