Hello and a very big welcome to the EquiAnalytix Blog for arguably the most talked about race day of the entire year, Grand National Day. To those new readers that have joined us after what I can only describe as an unbelievable week, I welcome you.
The Grand National is such an important race for so many, as for people like me it represents their very first experience of horse racing as a child. Circling horses in the paper, or pulling names out of a hat with family and friends, this race is known around the entire world, and finding a winner in it is always that bit more special.
Before we dive right in, you must humour me for a moment as yesterday was the single best day the data has ever had…
Reflecting on Day 2:
And I don’t say that lightly either, given just how successful the Blog has been for the past two Cheltenham Festivals, including last year’s Grand National Meeting! But after a slow start yesterday, the data just took off!
Gentleman De Mee started us off in the Topham, before Julius Des Pistons ground out victory over 3 miles, only then for She’s A Saint to finish strongly to send our readers and supporters into absolute pandemonium. Three winners, three huge prices, and I could not be prouder of how the data analysed each of them. The platform that’s been built here and the growing community of like-minded individuals is fantastic to see, and I cannot thank you all enough for your continued support. We’ve been rewarded with a 22,000/1 treble there, and I have been delighted to see so many of you send in photos of each way doubles here and there.. honestly, it’s one of those days you will always remember.
But of course for those newly joining us, it’s back to business and that includes navigating the most competitive handicap of the year… The National. So let’s get to it!
Race 1: William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
We begin Day 3 with an ultra competitive handicap hurdle over the extended 3 mile trip, certainly not one for the feint hearted!
Race Analysis:
With many of the contenders having last ran in races at Cheltenham, it’s a real mix of form coming into the race. It’s not a huge surprise to see the Pertemps 2nd, JERIKO DU REPONET, head the market at 6/1 at the time of writing. This horse ran a cracker that day, and was well supported to do so. And whilst a rating of 135 for that effort is solid, it’s been bettered by several of today’s opposition and therefore I am happy to take him on.
Horses such as PUSH THE BUTTON, BO ZENITH, DOUBLE POWERFUL & CATCH HIM DERRY all look set to run well based on the data in front of me, but I am willing to take them all on with the Olly Murphy trained gelding, ACT OF AUTHORITY. This horse was last seen running a gallant 2nd at the Cheltenham Festival, behind none other Grade 1 2nd Wodhooh in the concluding Martin Pipe. That day he made his challenge very wide and kept on nicely up the Cheltenham hill to earn a solid rating of 128. That figure in isolation of course needs to be improved upon, but it followed figures of 178 and 188 which certainly make this horse stand out. The step up to 3 miles looks certain to suit, and this horse is by one of the very best sires in the National Hunt game right now, Authorized. This sire continues to produce horses that excel over hurdles and in bumpers.. and incidentally we will be talking more about him later in the day!
Given such a competitive race, and I cannot move on without mentioning a lively outsider that the data has flagged as a potential improver. The horse is BARRY LYNDON for the Dermot McLoughlin team. This horse was last seen winning over 2m 4f at Fairyhouse in a competitive race, but what was most interest was that it was a clear career best. He earned a rating of 162 for that effort, and incidentally that is the highest last time out figure of any horses in this race… hence I would not be surprised to see him outrun big odds.
Race 2: Turners Mersey Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
The Mersey Novices Hurdle is our first Grade 1 of the afternoon, and features a very interesting horse that many would not have been expecting to see…
Race Analysis:
That horse is of course LULAMBA. Representing the Nicky Henderson team, this horse had largely been expected to run earlier in the week over 2 miles, but instead they’ve elected to step this horse up to 2m 4f, which frankly just makes sense. He’s a nice big scopey gelding, and certainly not your average looking 4yo which will prove handy given the weight allowance. He was narrowly beaten in the Triumph at Cheltenham, but in the process earned a very good figure of 145 in defeat. To put that in perspective, that’s an exceptional rating for a 4yo, and it’s the sort of level I’d expect from a more mature hurdler. Therefore with connections in top form, and his weight allowance, it’s really hard to see him getting beaten.
Of the remainder, I would never put anyone off following in HORACES PEARL once again. This horse will always have a place close to my heart, as he provided myself and the data we will never forget this time last year. He was a firm selection on the blog in the concluding bumper, and came from the skies to land the odds at a huge 14/1. He gave myself and my friends and family a day we will never forget. Since then he has maintained his unbeaten record, and has looked very good over hurdles, most notably winning last time at Newbury. Whilst looking good, his figures have just lacked a little but I would be looking at him very seriously in the market as being by sire-of-the-day Authorized, he is not be underestimated.
Race 3: William Hill Handicap Chase (Registered As The Freebooter Handicap Chase) (Premier Handicap) (GBB)
Next up we head into yet another ultra competitive handicap, this time one over the extended 3 mile trip over fences, where a good field of 14 will go to post.
Race Analysis:
At the time of writing, the market has latched onto IMPERIAL SAINT and that looks interesting given the horse’s record of 3 wins from 3 visits to the track, although does have to handle the step up in trip. PEAKY BOY is another interesting type having been bought into the Jonjo O’Neill stable, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back to top form here with conditions to suit.
But in truth, the more you scratch around the data on show for this race, the more it becomes difficult to really make a case for any of these horses, other than SAM BROWN. This horse will be running on the day at the ripe old age of 13… and there’s not one person that can persuade me he still doesn’t love this game when you watch his recent form. This horse was incidentally a selection for the race last year from the data, where he came from the clouds to grab 2nd at a big price. He has to carry 2lbs more this year, but does have the assistance of 7lb claimer Chad Bament who has seems to have formed such a good partnership with of late. The reason he stands out is quite clear, his last three ratings read; 159, 126 & 162, the latter when winning well at Newbury. Now on the surface, a 4lb rise for a 13yo horse looks very harsh (as pointed out by his trainer in the press), but the rating is so high it’s probably warranted. He will be seen doing all his best work late on, and providing he gets a good pace to aim at, he can yet again defy all the obvious obstacles in front of him!
Race 4: Ivy Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
Race 4 brings us our second, and penultimate Grade 1 of the meeting, the Liverpool Hurdle. A 3 mile contest which features many of those that competed in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham, but is that the form to focus on?!
Race Analysis:
Most will be following those lines and given TEAHUPOO is rated at least 2lbs higher than any of his opposition, it perhaps looks obvious. His ratings stack up, he is a Grade 1 winner and the Gordon Elliott team are in good form. But it’s just the fact that his last run in Stayers Hurdle earned a figure of 141 and he looked desperately caught out for speed. I would think given ground conditions, and the potential for a messy pace, the same may well happen again.
And so instead, when you study the data the horse with the highest last time out figure is GWENNIE MAY BOY for team Skelton. The team burst into life in the last yesterday, and this horse was actually a winner on the card 12 months ago albeit in a handicap. He raced off a mark of 126 that day, and won eased down by 7 1/2 lengths, showing a clear fondness for stiff finish at Aintree. He has then gone on to win a Grade 2 at Haydock, which has a similar stiff home straight, by again 7 1/2 lengths. Now of course, this horse has 14lbs to find with TEAHUPOO on official ratings, but this is the beauty of the data in finding those horses on a steep upward curve, as his Haydock win earned him a standout figure of 150. He is improving with each run, and this race may just set up nicely for this course specialist at a big price.
Race 5: Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
And it’s time for the 2025 Grand National. The race that stops the nation, and the race that means something different to everyone. It’s one hell of a spectacle seeing 34 horses go to over these unique fences, and I must say this now that the main thing of course is that each come home safe and sound afterwards.
Race Analysis:
As for analysing the race, where to start?!
Perhaps best is focussing first on last year’s hero, I AM MAXIMUS. Regular readers will of course fondly remember this was the pick of the data 12 months ago and he duly obliged in impressive style. However this year, he carries 8lbs more, and the prep has not been anywhere near as good as last time. This is a demanding race and so plenty of horses will have had unusual preparations to get them right for this race, but a huge leap of faith must be taken when following this horse and I just think others will have the edge on him on the day.
STUMPTOWN, HEWICK, PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS & MINELLA COCOONER are all horses that have solid form in the book, great ratings and look set to run big races. Nobody would be surprised to see any of those 4 land this year’s National, but there are just a few horses in here that impress far more on the data.
The first of what I have named “The 200 Club”, is IROKO. Representing JP McManus who has just had the most remarkable of times this season, I strongly feel this horse may just top it all off. Trained by Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero, this horse has had this race as his target for much of the season. He was of course the winner of the Martin Pipe back in 2023, showing plenty of stamina and determination to land that race, two qualities he will need in abundance here. He then looked to have the world at his feet over fences, only to have an interrupted novice campaign. But after a slow start to the season, he blew me away with the figure he achieved last time at Kelso in behind Grey Dawning. I calculated a value of 223 for the horse which is a huge figure and in isolation has to be given the upmost respect. Of course the eventual winner that day didn’t frank that earlier this week, but still ran a solid enough race to suggest we can take that form literally. He has been allotted a good weight, and the figure just leaves me thinking there is much more to come from this horse.
Now I have never hidden away from having a couple of angles for a single race, and the Grand National is no different. If there is value to be had, then you must take the opportunity. Therefore I want to mention two very lively outsiders that are also part of the elite “200 Club”. The first is GRANGECLARE WEST for the all conquering Willie Mullins team, and the second is FIL DOR for team Elliott. Incidentally, both horses here represent a form line that I have banged the drum hard about this week, it’s of course the race at Navan from 1st March. That day, El Fabiolo finished 2nd, and jumped poorly yesterday when falling, but it was also the race where Gentleman De Mee finished 4th and he went on to prove very well handicapped. Well that day, GRANGECLARE WEST gave GDM 9lbs, and was eventually eased down to finish last of the 5. Looking at that literally it wouldn’t jump out on paper, but they went a proper gallop on bad ground and I just feel that the figures don’t lie here. That therefore also brings in FIL DOR into the equation who finished 3rd that day. He will need to prove his stamina here but sire Doctor Dino needs no introduction and is another super-sire I have banged the drum strongly about this week. It’s a fascinating form line and in the Grand National anything can happen, but these lively outsiders surely have better chances than what their odds suggest at the time of writing!
Race 6: Rosconn Group Maghull Novices Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
After the excitement and drama of the National, we have the matter of two more races to get through. First up is the final Grade 1 of the Festival, the Maghull Novices Chase, a thrilling 2m contest.
Race Analysis:
Quite honestly, you can throw a blanket over the entire field when it comes to their ratings. All these horses have achieved figures in the 130-150s of late, with very little separating them on first inspection. But one thing we have had plenty of success with this week, and even more so when using the Dashboard each day is the EquiAnalytix Breeding Data. In this data we analyse each horse’s sire and dam to assess performance from their progeny under each race condition. And in these novice contests it can provide key information for which horses are set to improve most. And with that, it brings us straight to KALIF DU BERLAIS for team Nicholls. This horse is by Masked Marvel out of a Poliglote dam, and I can honestly say his sire is the most exciting in the NH space today. His progeny excel when sent over fences, averaging a huge rating of 88 across all runners. And it’s not hard to see why when you see how the selection jumps. He’s aggressive at his fences and that will suit round here, and I very much expect a similar ride to what Harry Cobden gave earlier this week with his winners. Team Nicholls have really turned up this week, and this horse gives them a great opportunity to finish on a high.
Race 7: Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) (GBB Race)
And we conclude what has been an amazing week with a final bumper, a Grade 2 contest featuring a strong field of 20.
Race Analysis:
Earlier this week we drew a blank in the Mares bumper, and in keeping with how strongly the data performs in these types of races I was delighted to see several well bred animals declared to run.
All the big sires of the moment are represented here by their offspring, with No Risk At All, Order Of St George & Walk In The Park all producing top horses in this sphere. But I want to revert back to my comments in Race 2 about the sire Authorized. This stallion continues to be underestimated as a sire of of top National Hunt horses, and it’s staggering to us as his numbers are just so solid. Taking a look here, he averages a rating of 77 across all his progeny that have ran in bumpers, which is remarkable given just how many runners he has had. What’s more interesting is that he sired the winner of last year’s race in Horace’s Pearl, and this time is represented by only one, QUAVISTE for team Skelton. This horse made his racecourse debut at Huntingdon 58 days ago, where he travelled supremely well before putting the race to bed comfortably. He was well supported that day and looked to have tonnes in hand at the finish. This horse is bred to outperform in this sphere, and I believe has the gears to go very close on the day.
There is however one other horse lurking that I simply cannot publish this blog without mentioning. That horse is the Harry Derham trained MOSSY FEN ROAD. Ridden by Paul O’Brien, this horse is a complete standout on the speed ratings, having earned a monster figure of 195 when winning on debut at Wetherby back in February. And whilst the form has yet to be properly tested, a combination of his standout figure, and the fact he could’ve easily won by further strikes me as a horse to be very interested in for a team in red hot form.
Final Thoughts
And that concludes the series of blogs for the 2025 Grand National Festival! Honestly after what happened on Day 2 I can confidently say this Festival will live long in the memory for EquiAnalytix and you all as members. I enjoy piecing these together and giving you all a different approach to tackling these competitive races, and I hope you all have enjoyed this series.
As always, I am always looking ahead at ways to improve the service, and introducing new features and content. So please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any feedback or suggestions!
Don’t forget, you can access this data each day, for every horse all via our easy-to-use Dashboard!