The day we have all been waiting for, and day when the nation stops to watch the very best of the UK and Irish staying chasers. The Grand National still to this day is a race that captivates both racing and non-racing fans, and despite the fences being a little different than they once were, it’s still a truly remarkable race. This year there are so many in with top chances, and it’s a real pleasure to share our data insights with you for such a race. As for the week so far, it’s been pretty good! Both Jonbon & Mystical Power looked impressive in their respective races, and Kateira did end up being the “graded horse in a handicap”. Readers yesterday would be forgiven for thinking “what if”, as Springfield Bay unseated when running a massive race, and Go Dante decided to give the field a 30 length head start… and still finish 3 1/2 length 4th! Arizona Cardinal was an emotional winner of the Topham, giving us all a taster of the national fences… so the question remains, who wins the 2024 Grand National?
Race 1: William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
Well before we get to that, we have a series of top quality races to go through and we begin with an ultra competitive handicap hurdle over the extended 3m trip.
Race Analysis:
The first to focus on here is WEST BALBOA who very much feels like deja-vu as the “graded horse running in a handicap”, again for Team Skelton. This horse remains lightly raced for an 8yo, and has course form having won this race 12 months ago albeit off a mark 6lbs lower than today. But she’s a classy mare who gave 6lbs to yesterday’s winner Kateira, and only finished 2l behind that horse last time out. That was her pipe-opener and she still earned a very respectable rating of 148 for that, and will have put her spot on.
There are several here with serious each way chances, including both Bold Endeavour & Honor Grey, but we want to take a chance on lively outsider RAMO. This horse has a very different profile, carrying 14lbs less than the market leader but has posted some eye catching figures. His last time out 2nd at Lingfield earned a very high rating of 171, when he narrowly lost to a very highly regarded mare from the Skeltons. Before that he earned a monster 236 at Plumpton, and those ratings all give him a squeak at massive odds.
Race 2: Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Race 2 is a cracking novice hurdle over the intermediate 2m 4f trip, where in all honesty the data is all over the place!
Race Analysis:
With that in mind, it’s a race to tread very carefully in as so many of these appear to have solid chances. Brighterdaysahead will prove popular after narrowly going down in the mares’ hurdle… and if she was to win she’d be the horse that everyone would kick themselves for not backing given her potential. With Caldwell Potter out, it will leave this mare very short.
Instead, we will focus in on the breeding data which is often the key to these novice races and sat atop that list is JIMMY DU SEUIL for Willie Mullins. He ran a great race at Cheltenham last month, only finding stablemate Ballyburn too good who rightly appears to have the world at his feet. The breeding data however suggests this horse will enjoy today’s conditions, and importantly has the most potential of these runners and therefore a chance is taken.
We must also say, do not underestimate ESPRIT DU POTIER. This Lucinda Russell trained horse has been a big improver and a last time out rating of 154 is a big standout. On paper he has plenty to find with the others but the races is falling apart and he might just pick up the pieces at a big price.
Race 3: William Hill Handicap Chase (Registered As The Freebooter Handicap Chase) (Premier Handicap)
Another race and yet another deep handicap, this time the William Hill handicap chase which is another puzzle to assess.. but the data here has some interesting insights.
Race Analysis:
The most interesting of all here is the Tom Lacey trained CRUZ CONTROL. This horse has risen a total of 14lbs in the handicap so far this season and has been on a steep improvement curve. That culminated last time into his best performance yet, a rating of 169 for landing a nice pot at Newcastle. What was most pleasing that day was his ability to travel and jump well, two things he will need to do even better this afternoon. Incidentally, our breeding data also suggests this is the horse with the most potential, and is best bred for today’s conditions.
Crebilly, The King Of Ryhope & Forward Plan are three very solid contenders, but we actually prefer the outside chances of veteran SAM BROWN. This horse appears a massive price based on what he’s done this season, where the application of new headgear and a softer winter has seen him visit the winner’s enclosure twice already this season. However, it’s ratings of 110, 184 & 189 on his last 3 runs that really peak our interest and put him right in the mix here with conditions to suit.
Race 4: JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1)
Next up is the Liverpool Hurdle, Aintree’s Stayers’ Hurdle equivalent and it features many of those that went head-to-head last month… but is there something else lurking?
Race Analysis:
The horse we think is being hugely underestimated for this race is HEWICK. He is a horse that’s captured the imagination of the public having been purchased incredibly cheaply, and has since been a revelation, especially when landing the King George at Christmas. That was incidentally his last run having had plans scuppered by the weather, but with the dry forecast we think by the time this race comes it could well be perfect for him. The trainer had the choice of this or sticking over fences, and this race has been chosen which we think is very telling, and if he brings anywhere near his chase form he should be a tough nut to crack.
Whilst the veteran Sire Du Berlais could spring back to life, we also think the outside chances of BOTOX HAS are also being underestimated. He achieve da career best last time out at Haydock and earned a stellar rating of 142 for that effort. By Dream Well, he is also top of our breeding data and that only enhances his chances of a big run, at big odds.
Race 5: Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
And with that, we arrive at the 2024 Grand National. A gruelling 4m 2f 74y trip where we see the very best of what National Hunt racing has to offer. It’s a real highlight of the year for many and this renewal looks a real conundrum. Whether you pick your favourite name, your favourite colour, or have been studying the form all year round, everyone will have their “fancy”… but after correctly predicting Corach Rambler last year… what does the data suggest?
Race Analysis:
The best place to start is indeed with last year’s hero, Corach Rambler. Today he will be looking to emulate both Red Rum and Tiger Roll by landing his 2nd National and he’s proven a popular horse for this contest of late. The reason for that is that he arrives after a very solid 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The 2nd place Gerri Colombe gave that form a firm boost on Thursday when landing the Bowl and the way in which Corach stuck on late you’d think he’s back in top form. He loves these fences and we are certain will go close, but a 13lb rise is tough and this year will be very different conditions.
On the figures, Coko Beach, Capodanno, Delta Work & Mahler Mission all look to have great each way chances, and we wouldn’t put anyone off chancing any of those horses.
However the data has spoken strongly for a couple of these, all in different ways. The first is I AM MAXIMUS. He sits atop of our data table after blitzing his rivals last time in a class National trial at Fairyhouse, earning a massive rating of 168. Having landed the Irish National last year as a novice, he’s taken his form to a whole new level and looks the class animal on paper. He scores very highly on our breeding data and we now see plenty of market support which is no surprise. The only concern is whether he is just a Fairyhouse bully, given most of his top efforts have come at that track. Today will be a different test but this quirky, yet classy horse may well take to it.
With the National it’s only fair to have a couple of live chances, and the data is looking for payback with MR INCREDIBLE. Similarly trained by Willie Mullins, this horse was our 2nd fancy of last year’s National and having taken to the fences ever so well, his saddle slipped and left the jockey with no chance but to unseat. He has had a great pipe opener in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter, lacking race fitness when it counted late on when narrowly finishing 2nd, yet still earned a very big rating of 142. We think he’s a really nice National type for Mullins and if getting round, will definitely be fighting out the finish.
As you know, I am obsessed with our breeding data and it’s for good reason as it’s continued to come up trumps on the big stage. The reason I say that is a horse like Limerick Lace demands plenty of respect. It would be most unusual for a horse to win the 2m 4f Mares’ chase at Cheltenham and then back up in the National, but this horse is beautifully bred, and her full brother is none other than Inothewayurthinkin who showed he had stamina in abundance when landing the opener yesterday. Her price is contracting fast but at the time of writing she’s at 14/1 which is good value for a top pedigree.
Race 6: My Pension Expert Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Many will still be recovering from the National but with two very interesting races to analyse, the show must go on!
Race Analysis:
The reason we are interested here is that a firm favourite of EquiAnalytix is running, NICKLE BACK. There are horses which just capture the imagination of the racing public and for me, this is mine. This horse is a real fruit cake, always seen trailblazing out front at a frenetic gallop, and that often proved too much late on over hurdles. But chasing he really brought out the best in him, and he really deserved his Grade 1 last time in the Scilly Isles at Sandown, where I’ve not seen a better novice attack the infamous Railway Fences. What’s most striking is that he earned a big rating of 193 for that.. and interestingly whilst soft ground isn’t his best surface, the drop back to 2m and the jumping test at Aintree may prove a smart move from Sarah Humphrey. The worry is he might not have the same class as some of these, but on the data and the prices, he’s worth a chance.
Found A Fifty is probably the correct favourite here and is best bred for the softer underfoot conditions, closely followed by Etalon who represents Team Skelton. That horse is improving rapidly and will take some stopping… but we just hope that NICKLE BACK gets his uncontested lead here and puts them to the sword.
Race 7: Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2)
We now arrive at the final race of the day, and the final race of what has been a brilliant 2024 Grand National Festival. We finish up with a bumper which means one thing… breeding data!
Race Analysis:
This year’s renewal is one of those races where you have a clash of three different angles in racing: 1) What your eyes say, 2) What the form says.. 3) What the data says.
Number 1 is obviously referring to current short priced favourite Mister Meggit for Jonjo O’Neill. This horse has looked a monster on the eye, cruising to victory in two moderate bumpers and looks to have any amount of potential. This issue is the form is weak, and the data is even worse… and that wouldn’t leave us with much confidence.
The form suggests horse such as Electric Mason, Ma Shantou & Tripoli Flyer are the ones to focus on.. but instead we chance the data which suggests the latter’s stablemate HORACLES PEARL needs a second look here. Trained by Fergal O’Brien, this horse would on paper appear the 2nd string which would concern us. But the horse has done nothing wrong in landing two bumpers last year, earning similar high ratings of 125 and 122 in doing so. But by being by Authorized, and out of a Slickly mare, this horse is bred for bumpers, and has to be chanced at big odds. Incidentally he also ticks the form box as both wins have been littered with winners, and when you take into account the most recent of those wins he gave lots of weight away, it boosts his chances here. The concern would be he’s spent a fair amount of time off the track, but if ready to rock and roll, we hope it’s a positive end to a terrific week.
Final Thoughts
I wanted to thank you all for your continued support throughout this week, and just hope that you’ve enjoyed looking deeper into these races with the EquiAnalytix data. I am always looking at ways to progress the business and our Dashboard is evolving every single day. If you like what you see and want this on a daily basis, why not consider one of our many membership options?