After such a positive response to our Cheltenham Festival Guide, EquiAnalytix is back to give you all the data you need to better your analysis at this year’s Aintree Grand National Festival. This Festival treats viewers to three days of top quality action, culminating in the big event on Saturday afternoon, arguably the most popular race in all of horse racing. But before then, we do have two great cards to dive through, with many contenders having featured across the week at Cheltenham.
Race 1: Close Brothers Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
We get underway here with what on paper looks to be a rematch of the Turners Novices’ Chase from March, with EquiAnalytix favourite, Grey Dawning, no doubt proving a very popular selection.
Race Analysis:
The best place of course to start is with market-leader, and the top-rated Grey Dawning. This horse was the highlight of the Festival for many EquiAnalytix members, as it’d been a horse our ratings have held in very high regard for some time. The manner in which he went on to win at Cheltenham has gotten us even more excited, because his rating of 188 was the best rating of all the 2024 Festival winners… some feat. With that, he is obviously a much shorter price this time round, but with the conditions likely to suit, this progressive novice chaser should be able to land this opening contest.
Ginny’s Destiny played second fiddle to the selection at Cheltenham last month, having continued his upward trajectory. He travels well and jumps even better, two assets that should see him bang there turning for home, but the concern would be he doesn’t look an obvious one to turn around the form.
Blow Your Wad has posted the highest LTO rating in the field, a 196 when landing a good race at Kempton, but that race just doens’t look of high enough quality to put him into the frame this time, and despite the ratings suggesting he will run well, he’s likely to find a couple too good.
Race 2: Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
This will be a fascinating contest, and obivously features one of the most talked about horses before the Cheltenham Festival, Sir Gino. He is going to prove incredibly popular, but what does the data think of his chances?
Race Analysis:
Whilst Sir Gino visually was incredibly impressive when winning at Cheltenham, the figures take a dim view of that form. The race itself turned into a sprint, as did his previous race at Kempton, and whilst he was impressive in both victories, it means the ratings earned are very low. Given just how striking his win at Cheltenham was on the eye, we’d have expected a better rating than 97 to suppor the hype around this horse. With that, we think at the prices he is best taken on.
Kargese did nothing wrong in defeat at Cheltenham in a Triumph Hurdle which turned into a real slog. A better bred stablemate came out victorious that day but she was still well clear of the remaining field and deserves her place here. A rating of 140 therefore is a clear positive last time, the fear is that you’d be disappointed if a few of these didn’t progress past her.
That then brings us to Kalif Du Berlais for Paul Nicholls. This horse swerved Cheltenham and to be honest we were surprised to see him line up here. The reason for that is this horse looks every bit a chaser, and therefore they may have opted for a lighter campaign. The fact they haven’t is eyecatching, especially with Paul chasing down the trainers title, and this horse looks the real deal. Both of his Kempton wins haven’t been eyecatching on the eye, but they have been on the clock, and have earned this horse ratings of 115 and 207. The latter is a huge figure, and was achieved under a muddling pace which really didn’t suit this horse. He was pushed along early which is to be expected for a galloping horse at a tight track like Kempton, and ultimately did all his best work late on when running on well at the finish to win by just under a length. The raw rating he achieved, alongside his pedigree where our breeding data has him as the best bred hurdler in the field, point towards a big run at attractive, drifting odds.
Race 3: William Hill Bowl Chase (Grade 1)
Next up is the Bowl which on paper is a brilliant renewal, featuring some of the very best 3 mile chasers in the UK & Ireland.
Race Analysis:
Gerri Colombe deserves immense respect here, and is for many one of the “bankers” of the week, following on from his 2nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He found only Galopin Des Champs too good that day and still earned a striking rating of 124.
However, a horse he didn’t face is Shishkin who EquiAnalytix readers will know is a horse our data was very sweet on for the Gold Cup. He was rightly withdrawn given the form and health of the Nicky Henderson stable, and therefore arrives here a fresh horse. What catches our eye the most however is his last time out rating of 226 for landing a hot race at Newbury. That 226 is proving to be very accurate, with the 3rd horse Protektorat going on to win the Ryanair Chase and both Sam Brown & Does He Know also winning subsequently. He will of course be looking to win back-to-back renewals of the Bowl, and the data suggests it will take some performance to stop him.
A mention must also be made for the Emmet Mullins trained Corbetts Cross who quite honestly could be anything here. He was last seen making a mockery of a good renewal of the National Hunt Challenge Cup at Cheltenham, sauntering around before sprinting up the Cheltenham hill. If the Bowl turns into a frenetic gallop, it would not surprise us to see this horse finishing well, especially after earning such a solid rating of 144 last time.
Race 4: William Hill Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1)
This year’s renewal of the Aintree Hurdle has a similar feel to the Champion Hurdle, where it’s missing some real class. Constitution Hill is out for the remainder of the season having fought off suspected colic, and that ultimately leaves a weaker field of 8.
Race Analysis:
We are instead left with a rather moderate field of 8, headed by the Irish pair, Impaire Et Passe & Bob Olinger. The problem is, the ratings just cannot split them. The former arrives here after a disappointing season in truth, where he hasn’t lived up to last year’s hype once stepping into open company. He does however still boast some very competitive ratings and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see another Grade 1 go the way of Willie Mullins here. Bob Olinger on the flip side has looked a different horse this season at the ripe old age of 9. He cruised into contention to win at Cheltenham on his penultimate start, and found only this year’s Champion Hurdle winner State Man too good last time out. Despite that, he boasts ratings of 123 and 184 and I guess with less to prove, he would be a tentative selection.
Race 5: Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase
The Foxhunters’ Chase is always a thrilling contest and is often one of the most competitive betting heats of the week. A few of these faced off at Cheltenham last month, but is there something else lurking in the figures?
Race Analysis:
The EquiAnalytix team remember fondly the run of Its On The Line last month, who was narrowly pipped by our breeding selection! This time round the two don’t face off, and so it’s no real surprise to see the JP McManus horse head the market. He is the obvious one but the rating at Cheltenham was poor, and he looked desperately uninterested at times, leading us to suspect dropping back in trip might not be the obvious choice.
Instead we are chancing with two selections, the first is a standout from our ratings, Benny’s King. The Dan Skelton team will have hopefully gotten off to a flyer already today, and this horse looks primed for a big run. He very easily landed a chase contest at Leicester in February, but it was the rating of 177 for doing so that really catches the eye. That’s the standout piece of form and we believe he will love today’s conditions.
The second to note is the other Emmet Mullins’ trained horse, Romeo Magico. As members and previous readers will know, one of the most powerful tools EquiAnalytix has is its breeding data. Having scanned breeding patterns all the way back to 1950, we’ve built a very robust database of the best performers under any given conditions. With that, Romeo Magico must be chanced at a price given his sire Affinisea has such a stellar chase record from his progeny. This horse is unexposed, and is largely flying under the radar and we think can take a big step forward.
Race 6: Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Our penultimate contest is an ultra competitive Premier Handicap for 2m chasers. This will be ran at a frenetic gallop and therefore you will really need to both jump and stay.
Race Analysis:
Dan Skelton is duly represented here with both Cheltenham hero, Unexpected Party, and the aptly named Heltenham. Both of these we expect to run solid races and from the data, the latter should go very close under conditions he obviously likes. But at the prices both look vulnerable and the rating suggest we look elsewhere.
Instead, the ratings have higlighted the chances of Sans Bruit for team Nicholls. This horse will be running 2lbs out of the handicap and given his light weight, it will be Bryony Frost doing the steering rather than Harry Cobden. This horse has a very unexposed profile having only had 3 starts in this country having formerly been running in France. However, he took a big step forward last time at Chepstow and on the eye jumped brilliantly, and was just closed on late by an improving type. He still earned a very high rating of 139 for that effort and that’s a clear eyecatcher in this field today. What makes us even more interested is his pedigree. His sire Triple Threat is being put on the breeding map of late, being the sire of the popular Mister Policeman. He’s a top sire and our breeding data suggests this horse today is best bred for both chasing, and the race conditions.
Race 7: Goffs Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2)
Day 1 closes with the mares’ bumper, where the data looks to continue its brilliant record in races of this nature.
Race Analysis:
The current market leader Baby Kate has been very popular overnight, now sat at 5/2. She was impressive last time when landing a Listed bumper at Cheltenham, but the issue is that no only was the rating a touch soft at 84, you only have to look at the horse’s she beat that day to see it wasn’t the best race…. and with that the data suggests it best to look elsewhere.
A horse from the raw ratings we have to take note of is Honky Tonk Highway, yet again for Dan Skelton. This mare really impressed us and the data last time out when winning on debut at Sandown. She was green as grass that day and the post-race interview was very telling from Dan, so we’d encourage you all to go watch it back. She should come on a great deal for that run, and a rating on debut of 122 is very impressive.
Then turning to our breeding data, we will look beyond La Marquise here who despite topping the list, her sire has only two progeny that have ran in bumpers (including herself), and that skews the data. Instead, the data has flagged Mongibello for the Crawford team. This daughter of Authorized is bred to perform well and she already has, having already won at Down Royal earning a big rating of 139. It was her last run that she needs to be forgiven for, as that was very disappointing at the DRF, but this isn’t a great race and she should be bang there on breeding.
Final Thoughts
And with that we hope you all have enjoy the first day of top quality action from Aintree, as the build up begins for the 2024 Grand National! As always, if you’ve enjoyed what you’ve read, you can get full access to even more data and insights for every runner, at every track, every day by signing up below.