Hello everyone and welcome back EquiAnalytix’s guide to this year’s Grand National Festival. Yesterday we were in for a real treat with some top performances. Gerri Colombe confirmed how good he is by winning the Bowl, and it was business as usual for Willie Mullins by landing the opener, as well as the Aintree Hurdle. The latter was in very controversial style and we still cannot understand how the stewards have left that result unchanged. As for the data, at the time of writing we just witnessed a jumping mastercalss from Sans Bruit to land the Red Run Handicap, under a brilliant Bryony Frost ride. A good price in a competitive handicap and another boost for our ever-growing breeding data…. so with that we head into Day 2!
Race 1: Huyton Asphalt Franny Blennerhassett Memorial Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
This opening contest looks a real cracker on paper as a strong field of novice chases face a gruelling extended 3m contest…. but what does the data suggest?
Race Analysis:
We start the analysis by looking at the top of the table with BROADWAY BOY. This Nigel Twiston-Davies trained gelding was all the rage at the start of the season, having landed back-to-back competitive contests at Cheltenham, most notably last time beating both Threeunderthrufive & Protektorat. Both of those horses have since gone onto win big races and so that form is franked, and supports the horse’s very high ratings of 165 and 173. These are massive ratings for a novice chaser and having been freshened up by swerving The Festival, he should be primed for this.
We have to also take a second in the race, especially given how incredible our breeding data continues to be. The horse in question is HEART WOOD for the Henry De Bromhead team. He hasn’t taken the most obvious route to get here having landed a handicap last time out, but the manner in which he won it is worth noting. It was a 2m 5f handicap at the DRF and ultimately made a mockery of a mark of 136 when landing that supposed competitive contest. He has to step into Grade 1 here, but his sire Choeur Du Nord is very eyecatching on the pedigree and suggests he may take another big step forward again.
Race 2: William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
Next up is the William Hill handicap hurdle, a Premier Handicap which means a huge field, and a lot of data to go through!
Race Analysis:
The obvious starting place is SPRINGWELL BAY who had at one stage been a selection of the data at The Festival, only to be scratched late on. This horse is eyecatching purely based on the rating of 198 he achieved when narrowly being beaten at Musselburgh last time. The winner has since won again and franked that rating, and we think at the prices with conditions to suit, he can run a race.
Kateira is your most likely candidate for being a “graded horse in a handicap”, and a rating last time out of 145 commands repsect for team Skelton, albeit their horses didn’t have the best opening day!
Instead, we think it might also be worth chancing PLAYFUL SAINT at a price, the supposed Skelton 2nd string. That’s always dangerous as the jockeys do have preference, but this looks crying out for this trip, and with ground condition to suit his breeding data, he’s a fascinating contender at huge odds.
Race 3: TrustATrader Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Up next is the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle for two-milers, very much a repeat of the Supreme last month… but with the winner swerving the race, who picks up the pieces?
Race Analysis:
The data suggests that the obvious answer to that question is the superbly bred, MYSTICAL POWER. By Galileo out of Annie Power, this horse has a massive reputation, and when jumping the last ahead last month he looked as though he would live up to it. However a lot of over-racing meant he tired up the Cheltenham hill and was collared late on. This track today therefore should suit and to be honest, it doesn’t look a race with much depth.
An outside swinger must be noted here, and that’s the Sam Thomas trained LUMP SUM. He did swerve Cheltenham in favour of this contest and arrives off the back of a massive rating of 213 for winning at Kempton. Today is of course a different league to that level of form but this son of Authorized is improving quickly and can surprise a few here in this race.
Race 4: My Pension Expert Melling Chase (Grade 1)
This year’s Melling Chase quite honestly looks one of the most competitive Grade 1’s of the week, with so many household names going head-to-head!
Race Analysis:
Having gone over and over this race, it’s a very difficult one to assess and so from the data’s point of view, it’s likely one to watch. The reason being is atop of the ratings is the Willie Mullins trained Easy Game. In most circumstances the rating of 195 would be enough to persuade anyone of taking a chance on him, but the 10yo’s record at this level is pretty dismal and is best seen in smaller fields across in Ireland.
The race does however feature a few from the Ryanair chase, most notably the winner Protektorat and runner up Envoi Allen. The former was a real higlight of Cheltenham for the EquiAnalytix team, but the worry here is can he back it up, especially against a potentially rejuvenated opposition…
And by that we mean JONBON. On the ratings he would need to be for forgiven for his last time out 79, where he quite honestly did very well to even finish the race after jumping awfully most of the way round. That will put many off his chances but what intrigues us most is this step up in trip which on the breeding data should suit. By jumping at a less frenetic gallop it may just aid his chances and his fresher, younger legs can be used to good effect here.
Race 5: Randox Supports Race Against Dementia Topham Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Next is the 2024 Topham, a thrilling race where a big field of 25 take on the National fences over 2m 5f.. with so many to go through, what does the data suggest?
Race Analysis:
With so many in this field with chances, were very disappointed that at the time of writing our initial selection, Lounge Lizard, was declared a non-runner.
With that, we’ve instead focussed solely here on the breeding data which has performed so well this season. Often when looking at those horses who are best bred for fences, it can bring in some very interesting contender. And this race is no different with AIME DESJY topping the list. This Willie Mullins trained 9yo is still very lightly raced over fences, having won 1 from 3 starts over the bigger obstacles. That may worry a few but the Topham is such a unique challenge it may well suit a very lively novice. The angle with this horse other than the breeding is that he has been competing in better races than this, and went down narrowly to a good horse back in February who went on to compete in graded company. Off a mark of just 141 he may well have got in lightly and a case can be made.
Bill Baxter will prove popular and he would be a very obvious winner for team Greatrex, especially as his mark has come back down just in time for a repeat bid. The data suggests he will need a step forward but these fences may well bring that back out of him here.
Race 6: Cavani Sartorial Menswear Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
The penultimate contest is another Grade 1, this time the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle, and it does look a very open renewal.
Race Analysis:
Readin Tommy Wrong did in fact get it all wrong at Cheltenham in the Albert Bartlett having been pulled up when going off as favourite. That race can often throw up a result as it’s such a stamina-sapping contest, but it would be tough to trust this horse to bounce back after such a poor display. He does remain the best bred in this field for hurdles according to our data, and that will be a warning to all those that oppose him.
However at the prices we think it best to follow the chances of SHANAGH BOB for Nicky Henderson. It is a big surprise to not see this horse shorter, especially given how impressive Sir Gino was for the yard yesterday. But it does provide good value and this very lightly raced horse can maintain his unbeaten record with conditions right in his favour. The form of his Grade 2 win at Cheltenham has worked out ok and we think he poses a real threat to this field.
Race 7: Alder Hey Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys’ And Amateur Riders’ Race)
We close Day 2 with a very competitive looking handicap hurdle for conditional & amateur riders… but it does feature a horse we’ve tracked all season!
Race Analysis:
The horse in question is the Olly Murphy trained GO DANTE. This horse has appeared in all the major handicaps this season, and got a very much deserved victory last time out in Sandown, in the process landing another nice pot for connections. It’s the consistency of this horse’s ratings this season that has kept him on the EquiAnalytix radar. Ratings of 166, 198 and most recently 150 is some feat in handicap company, and on those figures he just appears better than his opposition today. With conditions to suit, he will take some stopping.
The race can often throw up a result, so we would taken interest in Brucio who heads our breeding data for the Crawford team, as well as Lively Citizen who with a big rating last time could be a very lively outsider!
Final Thoughts
And that is all for Day 2 of the Grand National Festival! We do hope you’ve all enjoyed the content so far, and I’ve really enjoyed engaging with you through the day. The data continues to show its expertise in race analysis and we hope for another good day before the big one!