By popular demand, the EquiAnalytix is back for the 2025 Grand National Festival, a three-day meeting filled with top quality action, culminating in the most famous race of them all on Saturday.. the Grand National.
What to expect this week:
I have been incredibly fortunate to connect with so many of you after what can only be described as brilliant week for the data at the Cheltenham Festival. On a week that saw a vast majority of punters feel the pain of so many short-priced-favourites beaten, the data came to the fore and predicted multiple winners, including a 33/1 shot.
So with that, we head into this year’s Grand National meeting full of confidence at what can often be a tough meeting to analyse. You never know just how much a race at the Festival can take out of a horse, and therefore those looking to run in quick succession will need a close eye, especially when you have a group of talented horses that have been put away specifically for this meeting.
For new readers, I welcome you to EquiAnalytix. Each of the three days you can expect deep analysis as to how my data predicts the outcome of a race, from the form, to the trainer form, to the breeding, to the run styles – the data tackles each race from every angle and I thoroughly hope you enjoy the content!
With that, onwards onto Day 1!
Race 1: EBC Group Manifesto Novices Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
We begin the day with a Grade 1 Novices Chase over the intermediate 2m 4f trip and frankly for me, it’s a race that is sorely missed at the Cheltenham Festival. Several of these come into the race fresh, but are they good enough?
Race Analysis:
As regular readers will know, whilst the analysis remains entirely agnostic of the market, it remains a good guide on what can often be expected from the field. And whilst it may seem all too obvious, I believe favourite-backers will be smiling after the opener as JANGO BAIE is very hard to look past here. The winner of what ended up being a dramatic Arkle last month, this horse has been a model of consistency and arrives here officially 2lbs higher on the ratings than any of his opposition. And what’s more important, is that his EquiAnalytix ratings are solid. His 204 heading into the Festival was a mighty performance (with the horse that beat him also running this week), and he went onto achieve a figure of 151 in the big one next time. Those figures alone are a standout, and this step back up in trip on a flat track I think could be his most ideal conditions. When you then add the fact that the Henderson stable is still operating far above his usual 12m average EquiAnalytix rating, it’s very difficult to pick any holes in this horse.
Readers will of course be drawn to the figures achieved by THE KALOOKI KID, with his 186 & 191 showing a horse in electric form. I think he will outrun huge odds for connections, but I just feel that with those performances coming in far lesser handicapping company, this race just demands so much more. He is a horse that is fresh and in form but I feel several of these should prove far too good. The Willie Mullins trained IMPAIRE ET PASSE is one of those horses, but he will need to improve on some sketchy jumping at Leopardstown to trouble the selection.
Race 2: Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
The Boodles Juvenile Hurdle is our second Grade 1 of the afternoon and usually features the very best young, up and coming horses. However this year’s renewal lacks that star quality, and has left the race wide open.
Race Analysis:
Before we go onto analyse this race I must say that a big part of me will be cheering home GIVE IT TO ME OJ. The reason for that is that with the Racing Club I run, we owned the full sister. Unfortunately our mate didn’t get any of the quality genes that this lad did, but given my connections to that pedigree and mare, I would be nothing but delighted to see a full sibling get Grade 1 success.
It goes to show how open this contest is when you have the former favourite LIVE CONTI now out to as big as 6/1 in place at the time of writing, as the money has come for Cheltenham hero PUTURHANDSTOGETHER. This horse was a great winner for the data and blog readers last month in the Fred Winter, and looks to be improving at a rate of knots. The horse however doesn’t quite have the pedigree that for me would see him be landing Grade 1s in the National Hunt space. By Caravaggio out of a Galileo dam, this horse’s breeding data is very weak, and his recent speed ratings just don’t jump out to me, especially not at such a short price.
Instead, I want to put forward the filly MURCIA, who was last seen finishing 8 lengths behind PUTURHANDSTOGETHER in the Fred Winter. However that day she had to carry 6lbs more, and today will be in receipt of a very valuable 7lb filly allowance. That basically gives her a 13lb pull with PUTURHANDSTOGETHER. And whilst I am not suggesting that would have turned the tables at Cheltenham, I do think it can here at Aintree. This filly is supremely bred by Doctor Dino out of a Poliglote mare and despite running flat last time, recorded a huge figure of 209 behind a next time out winner at Naas in February. Piecing all this together, her odds do not reflect her chances and I expect her to give this favourite a proper race.
Race 3: Brooklands Golden Miller Chronograph Bowl Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
Race 3 is a mouthwatering Grade 1 Chase, The Bowl. This race often features some of the very best staying chasers and this year’s renewal has not disappointed. There is a form line here we are very keen to see play out…
Race Analysis:
And that is the form line with GREY DAWNING. The Dan Skelton grey gelding bounced back to his very bast last time at Kelso when recording an eyewaterinw EquiAnalytix speed rating of 234 for beating Iroko.. a horse you will hear plenty from us about on Saturday! That performance was very impressive, and having been kept fresh for this race, he looks set to post another big performance at a course the team do ever so well with.
STAGE STAR has began to show signs of life again, with the opposite being said about GAELIC WARRIOR and therefore it might be left to course hero AHOY SENOR to bounce back to form at his beloved Aintree. But with form figures of PU, PU, F.. it would be some bounce!
Race 4: William Hill Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race)
In my opinion, next up could arguably be one of the very best race of the season. With the revolving around two of the most talked about horses of the season, and the score already 1-0, can the mare turn things around?!
Race Analysis:
As much as I am personally a huge fan of CONSTITUTION HILL and the data this horse has posted on a consistent basis, regular readers will remember that I am of the view that he has yet to get anywhere near to where he was pre-illness and injury. This horse at his former level was in my opinion unbeatable, but since then he has posted sub-standard figures on my calculation and has began to lose respect for his hurdles, a very dangerous combination.
And therefore I remain in the opposing camp and feel the time is right for LOSSIEMOUTH to get some of the respect she deserves. She was ever so impressive when winning the Mares at Cheltenham in a canter and hence I am willing to forgive a moderate figure of 107 for that effort, but her 185 and 174 figures from this season are top class. She’s a very good mare in and receipt of that all-important allowance over this 2m 4f trip, I think we could see a really special performance.
Race 5: Randox Foxhunters Open Hunters Chase
The Foxhunters is the first warm-up contest for the big one on Saturday, and this cavalry charge over the shorter 2m 5f trip is some appetiser!
Race Analysis:
As I have noted before, our data is unable to analyse the PTP performances of these horses and therefore we can only see what’s in front of us under rules.
JOKER DE MAI will no doubt give the ever so popular David Maxwell a buzz that only these sorts of fences can give you. This horse bounced back with a nice win at Leicester last time, earning a solid rating of 124 for that. It’s a good level but this year’s renewal features horses that have produced much more of late.
PRESENTANDCOUNTING is one of those horses who could cause a big surprise on the afternoon, with figures of 200, 143 and 174 on his last 3 racecourse appearances being a clear eye-catcher. He of course has operated at a much lower level than this but the booking of Derek O’Connor always warrants consideration and therefore at a huge price I think he has to have a big chance of placing here.
The second horse here that really needs a second look is the formerly classy MY DROGO. Now trained by Edward Walker, this horse was formerly very good for the Dan Skelton team. He obviously had his problems having only ran 10 times under rules despite being 10, but it was his most recent performance at Haydock in February that blew the data away. That day he had a long battle with the eventual runner up, up the long Haydock home straight, but eventually went on to win by a comfortable 2 lengths. He did however record a speed rating of 186 for that victory which I calculate as a near career best for the horse. Now I am not for one second suggesting that this horse is back to those levels, but that performance in isolation warrants huge respect in such an open race like this. With the entire field off level weights, this is the classy animal in the field.
Race 6: Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
Our penultimate contest on Day 1 features the first handicap of the meeting, the Red Rum Handicap Chase. This ferrocious-run 2m chase is a real spectacle
Race Analysis:
This ultra competitive handicap has a very interesting feel to it this year as it’s far easier to make a case for a horse not winning, than it is for a horse winning! I say that as despite horses such as GUNSIGHT RIDGE & TOMMYS OSCAR boasting top speed ratings, both horses would much prefer a slower surface. And with Liverpool showing sunny skies this week, that looks doubtful.
MY MATE MOZZIE will be a case of deja vu for Cheltenham readers given we felt this horse would go close in last month’s Grand Annual… and in fairness he did but this horse continues to find a couple too good. Therefore for this race I want to focus in on the pedigrees of the horses to unlock those that should be far better than what their marks suggest, and the standout here is PETIT TONNERRE. This has long been a “cliff horse” for many pundits as he has always promised to land a nice handicap of this nature, before often just finding it out of his reach. Many will point towards that being by design given connections, but I think this horse just needs everything to drop right and given the clear pace in this race, I think he will get his optimum conditions. Scratching his fall last time having been brought down, he bounced back to form when winning at Doncaster and posted a very good figure of 146 that day. His sire, Waldpark, continues to produce horses that relish the bigger obstacles, and I am willing to take a chance that this can be the beginning of a very good three days for Team McManus!
Race 7: Goffs Nickel Coin Mares Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) (GBB Race)
Day 1 comes concludes with the first bumper of the meeting, the Grade 2 Mares National Hunt Flat Race… and don’t forget, the EquiAnalytix data loves a bumper!
Race Analysis:
It was of course this meeting last season, and you can go check the app for that blog post, where we landed a huge outsider in the form of Horaces Pearl in the concluding bumper. This contest is the mares race, but often it can provide just as profitable when following the EquiAnalytix breeding data, whilst also casting an eye on those recent form figures.
And as for the latter, we have several horses here that bring in a very high level of form. SEO LINN is going to prove very popular having won well at Cheltenham at the end of last year, and similar can be said for the unbeaten JACKIE HOBBS, and the Alan King trained CHARISMA CAT. However, despite their profiles fitting for this race, their figures and breeding just do not match up here.
Instead, I want to focus on two lively outsiders that on pedigree & form figures can post much improved performances here. The first is the Nicky Richards trained LA ZOUBIDA who is currently around the 40/1 mark. She doesn’t have the obvious appeal of her market rivals but this daughter of Authorized certainly has the pedigree. Time and time again this sire’s offspring outperform in bumpers, especially at this track and this mare has the right trainer to bring her along gradually. She won very well last time when recording a figure of 109, and that day she sprinted away from her rivals showing that this quicker surface should pose no problems. She has the right pedigree, and has to therefore have a chance.
The other horse I want to mention is the Fergal O’Brien supposed second string, HIGHLAND HAVEN. This horse was pipped on the line last time by the other O’Brien trained horse STRONG RUN, but she did have a penalty to concede that day. The way she travelled into that race, earning her figure of 169 was very impressive and incidentally is the standout piece of recent form on offer here. When you then consider this daughter of Kayf Tara is out of the 144-rated Highland Retreat, she has blue blood ready to cause an upset here in the finale.
Final Thoughts
And with that we close Day 1 of the 2025 Grand National meeting, and I thoroughly hope you have enjoyed the read!
It’s been great to see so many new faces here and I feel we are now building a real community of those looking for a different angle in their analysis. I will not shy away from the fact that what has been built here is not your conventional form-reading, but it’s proven on the big stage time and time again and I hope can deliver for so many of you this week!
Don’t forget, you can access this data each day, for every horse all via our easy-to-use Dashboard!