Welcome to Day 5 of Royal Ascot 2025 – the final day of what’s already been a spectacular week at the Royal meeting. Despite a slow start on Day 4 those that kept the faith were rewarded with big back-to-back winners to close out the card.
Amiloc justified strong support when landing the King Edward VII at £2.38 on the Tote, before Adrestia stormed home in the finale at a massive £15.80 – well above the industry SP of just 10/1. It’s the kind of edge only found in the deep, liquid Tote World Pool markets, and exactly what we aim to capitalise on.
We close out the meeting with another seven fiercely competitive races. Expect fireworks – and let the data guide you one last time.
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Race 1: 14:30 Ascot Chesham Stakes (Listed Race)
The fifth and final day of Royal Ascot 2025 gets underway with the Chesham Stakes, a race for 2yos over the 7f trip, and a race which usually produces a nice future staying type!
Race Analysis
This 7f test for 2yos can be very demanding at this early stage of their careers, and therefore it takes a certain type of horse to handle it. Interestingly four of today’s rivals all have matching form, having been victorious on their sole racecourse visit. The early market had latched onto the Charlie Appleby trained TREANMOR who won on debut at Newmarket 34 days ago. That was a very solid effort, earning an OK debut rating of 111 after travelling strongly during the race. It was a good enough effort on debut but of course this race will demand much more, and whilst his sire’s progeny continue to excel, there is a pedigree in here which I much prefer. MOMENTS OF JOY represents a winning team that can do no wrong this week, but the horse also represents her sire Justify who regular readers will know the data is a huge fan of. The EquiAnalytix breeding data takes advantage of our bespoke ratings to track the progeny of every sire over the past 50ys, giving us an unrivalled database to assess the pedigree of every horse, and Justify has been a real anomaly. Despite not having a huge number of runners on the continent, what he has had has been superb, averaging a rating of 98 across all progeny – some 5pts higher than Frankel’s progeny! When you then look at those progeny on fast going, it increases further to 121 and that’s what peaks my interest here with MOMENTS OF JOY. She is regally bred out of a mare that reached an official mark of 100 on the flat herself, and made a good start to racing when winning on debut at Leopardstown. That day the horse recorded a rating of 113, which like the Godolphin horse will need to be improved upon, but she has a pedigree that suggests she can!
We of course cannot go without mentioning HUMIDITY for the Andrew Balding team, a horse who has the standout piece of recent form when recording a 168 on debut at Newbury. The subsequent form of that race has been mixed with one winner and another disappointing, so it’s difficult to tell if we can take the figure at face value, especially given his pedigree lacks the depth of others. But on its own it’s an impressive rating and hence he must be considered in Exotics bets.
🎯 Exacta: Moments Of Joy / Humidity / Treanmor
💥 Trifecta: Moments Of Joy / Humidity / Treanmor
Race 2: 15:05 Ascot Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2)
Next is the Hardwicke Stakes, a Group 2 contest that sees us step up to the 1m 4f trip.
Race Analysis
The Hardwicke is always a competitive affair and this year’s renewal is no different. At the time of writing the market is speaking very favorably for the Godolphin horse, REBELS ROMANCE. He has by far the highest official BHA rating of 123 and hence if this was a handicap, he would have to give weight to all of his opposition and that is always worth remembering. But what we do here is assess the data in front of us, and it speaks much higher of several of his oppositions and hence at the prices looks one we can take on!
This really is a deep race where you can speak highly of several. AL AASY’s last time out rating of 160 is impressive, as is the consistency of GHOSTWRITER who has achieved 177, 167 and 173 on his last 3 outings. Connections of the latter will of course be looking for an immediate return on their recent investment, but will have to go some to peg back AL RIFFA for the Joseph O’Brien team. This horse has not been seen on UK soil since finishing a mighty 2nd in last year’s Eclipse, behind a certain City Of Troy that many of you will remember. Since then, he went on to be competitive in Saudi back in February, before a respectable run in France last time. The form of those races are very solid, but here we revert back to that Eclipse run where he earned a monster figure of 219. That alone gives me a lot of confidence in this horse on his UK return, as does the step up in trip which he appears like he has been screaming out for. He is a year older than when we last saw him, and no doubt strong, and represents a team in great form this week already. At the prices, he interests me a lot from the data.
But glancing down at the table once more we could not pass by PALLADIUM, a horse once well-fancied for the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival when with Nicky Henderson. Was subsequently moved to the Gosdens with a flat campaign in mind, and has really benefited for it. He has run once for new connections, finishing 3rd at Goodwood to the ever-so-consistent Hamish. A figure of 179 for that effort shows it was a big performance, and I am adamant this son of Gleneagles has a big run in him, and if there’s any man that would get it out of him, it’s Ryan Moore!
🤝 Swinger: Al Riffa & Palladium
Race 3: 15:40 Ascot Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)
We move on next to the 6f Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, a very popular contest for many that sees a really competitive field of 16 go to post.
Race Analysis
This year’s renewal has a real international feel to it, very fitting given coverage of Royal Ascot is being broadcast worldwide with help from the World Pools. Currently two of the top three in the betting represent overseas connections, headed by LAZZAT for Wathnan Racing. This horse was recently purchased having destroyed his rivals at Chantilly in Listed company. Of course this Group 1 will demand more but according to several, this could be a special horse. The issue we have is that as of now, we do not apply our algorithms to international data, owing to the fact that many streams remain patchy – hence I echo absolute caution here when assessing these globetrotters.
Therefore sticking with the data in front of us, I want to chance two horses here. The first is STORM BOY again for the all-conquering Aidan O’Brien team. This horse was a big disappointment on his Irish debut at the Curragh, and was well looked after in the closing stages by jockey Ryan Moore. Of course a lot more had been expected, but a figure of 122 is certainly not bad for a horse that subsequently was described as being “far from ready” by the trainer. This horse also leaps off the page from a breeding data perspective given he is another offspring of the mighty Justify, and I would expect the horse to go very close. A lively outsider in here also warrants a closer look for connections that do so well with their sprinters. ANNAF is another globetrotter having been campaigned well by connections, and arrives here in peak form after posting a figure of 192 last time at Salisbury. Of course that will need improving upon in Group 1 company at Ascot, but that will have been the ideal prep for a horse that loves these big fields… expect a good run for your money despite the huge odds!
Race 4: 16:20 Ascot Jersey Stakes (Group 3)
The Jersey is up next as we hit the halfway point for Day 5, a Group 3 contest over the 7f trip.
Race Analysis
What is usually a very tough contest this year feels a bit below par in truth, and a glance at the ratings table supports that view given half of the field really don’t have the form required to be competitive here. Though whilst it’s easy to rule many out, it does leave a handful of horses that then become very difficult to split. MARVELMAN heads the TPR figures for powerful connections, with Oisin Murphy riding like a man on a mission so far this week. That horse will go close with figures of 150 and 145, but the same can be said for both SARACEN & SPY CHIEF who have their chances. Instead, I want to focus in on the very unexposed horse from Owen Burrows, REMMOOZ. This son of Blue Point has been impressive in his two wins from two starts, cemented by ratings of 124 and 154. The latter was earned at Doncaster two weeks ago where the horse oozed class when comfortably going clear of his rivals despite carrying a penalty. The horse is clearly going in the right direction and this step up in grade should cause no problem for a horse on a steep upward curve.
Race 5: 17:00 Ascot Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
Race 5 brings us the 2025 renewal of the Wokingham, one of the deepest, toughest handicaps to assess all year, so let’s get to it!
Race Analysis
The data however has really helped us here as we obviously must start with ZOUM ZOUM who given the non-runner, now heads both the TPR and the recent form ratings, with his outstanding figure of 192 last time at Salisbury. Incidentally, that was recorded in the same race as ANNAF who runs earlier in the card. If that horse was to run well, it would of course fill me with confidence for the selection here. Trained by Ralph Beckett, this horse remains lightly raced and you have to think his comeback run 28 days ago was in preparation for this. His figures are clear for all to see and I can see him outrunning huge odds.
As for the rest of the field, it’s very hard not to be drawn towards MORE THUNDER who clearly is improving rapidly, and his last two wins have recorded figures of 124 and 162. That latter performance was impressive, and he will certainly be seen running on at the death here. I just worry that he may well lack the early pace compared to several of these and that will require plenty of luck in running. Instead, the data is going all-in on the Salisbury form here given it already likes the 2nd and 3rd from that race, so it should certainly like the 4th that day, JARRAAF. Representing the Owen Burrows team, this horse is a dual course and distance winner who like the others, used that Salisbury contest as a pipe-opener for this meeting. That day he arguably looked like the one who needed the run the most, and I could therefore see him taking a huge step forward here. The draw will however give Billy an important decision to make, as I maintain from the data that being draw high is an advantage, but if there at the finish this horse can go very close.
🤝 Swinger: Zoum Zoum & Jarraaf
Race 6: 17:35 Ascot Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap)
As we hurtle through this final day, we get to our penultimate contest of the Royal meeting, the Golden Gates Handicap, a race ran over the 1m 2f trip.
Race Analysis
With strong representation from both sides of the Irish sea, it’s fantastic to see so many big figures in the table. Horses such as FANTAZY MAN, TYCOON, DAKOTA BLUE & your current market leader SERAPH GABRIEL all boast serious chances. But the data is doing all the heavy lifting for us here given there are two horses that sit atop of the TPR figures, who can only be split by two points on their most recent outing. That is of course, ERNST BLOFELD & QUAI DE BETHUNE. If that latter rings a bell for returning readers, it will be because the horse was mightily close to giving us a day to remember in our Tote World Pool Guide on Lockinge day. That day he finished a closing 3rd in the London Gold Cup, a big step up in form as the data had anticipated would come for the the increased distance. Here, he remains over 10f but will likely get a much better pace to aim at, and with connections in red-hot form, I fancy him to continue his progress here under Oisin Murphy. If we are talking of connections being in form, there are none better right now than the Gosdens, and they are represented here by ERNST BLOFELD who warrants firm consideration given a last time out figure of 170. That incidentally came when finishing a neck behind our other selection here in the London Gold cup. That day the horse kept on galloping to the line and with his stable in much better form, I expect him to take a further step forward here.🔨 Build a Bet
🤝 Swinger: Quai De Bethune & Ernst Blofeld
Race 7: 18:10 Ascot Queen Alexandra Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
And with that, we come to the 35th and final race of Royal Ascot 2025, where we look towards the data to find us the winner of the Queen Alexandra Stakes.
Race Analysis
And the one way we can describe this race is gruelling. A race ran over the 2m 5f & 143y trip is about as tough as it gets on a thoroughbred flat horse, and with temperatures soaring it will make that home straight feel even longer. Therefore your winner must dig deep into those stamina reserves and if you ask the market, all roads point to SOBER. Trained by Willie Mullins, this horse has proven incredibly popular in the market and it’s easy to see why. Having been a top quality flat performer on the level in France, he then went on to make a winning debut over hurdles for new connections, that day earning a hurdles figure of 124. Now the beauty of EquiAnalytix ratings are that they are comparable across all codes and disciplines, so we do have some insight into that run – and it firmly suggests that this is a high quality animal. When you then look towards his opposition, it becomes much harder to make a case for many, even more so when you see that in the official handicap ratings many of these have plenty to find. Therefore perhaps the one exception to that is SAMUI who represents Gordon Elliott – you’d be forgiven for thinking this was a race being ran at Cheltenham! This horse ran really well in the Copper Horse Stakes handicap earlier in the week, and providing he turns up here, this unique stamina test can bring about an even better performance than his 144 on Tuesday, and must be included for Exotics purposes.🔨 Build a Bet
🎲 Tote Placepot – Royal Ascot Day 5 (Races 1–6)
- Leg 1 (14:30): Moments Of Joy (8)
- Leg 2 (15:05): Al Riffa (2), Palladium (8)
- Leg 3 (15:40): Storm Boy (12), Annaf (1)
- Leg 4 (16:20): Remmooz (10)
- Leg 5 (17:00): Zoum Zoum (3), Jarraaf (5)
- Leg 6 (17:35): Ernst Blofeld (11), Quai De Bethune (10)
📋 Selection Recap
Summary of all bold selections from today’s analysis:
- Race 1 – Chesham Stakes: Moments Of Joy
- Race 2 – Hardwicke Stakes: Al Riffa, Palladium
- Race 3 – Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee: Storm Boy, Annaf
- Race 4 – Jersey Stakes: Remmooz
- Race 5 – Wokingham Stakes: Zoum Zoum, Jarraaf
- Race 6 – Golden Gates Stakes: Ernst Blofeld, Quai De Bethune
- Race 7 – Queen Alexandra Stakes: Sober, Samui
These selections represent horses highlighted in the analysis as having strong potential based on EquiAnalytix data models and pedigree analysis.
Conclusion
And just like that, Royal Ascot 2025 draws to a close. It’s been a thrilling week of world-class racing, and we’re proud to have guided our readers through it with data-driven insight, standout selections, and value-focused betting angles. From big-priced winners to smart Exotics strategies, the EquiAnalytix approach has delivered once again.
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